Conflict early warning
Encyclopedia
The field of conflict early warning seeks to forecast the outbreak of armed conflict, or, at minimum, to detect the early escalation of violence, with the objective of preventing the outbreak or the further escalation of violence in order to save lives.
Initial conceptions of conflict early warning materialized in the 1970s and 1980s but the field really emerged on the international policy agenda after the end of the Cold War
. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been developed for conflict forecasting and conflict monitoring. Qualitative methodologies typically draw on local area experts with extensive knowledge on one country or region. This is the approach taken by the International Crisis Group
, for example. In contrast, quantitative methodologies quantify conflict trends and use mathematical techniques to forecast future trends or "events of interest" (EOIs). For example, the Integrated Conflict Early Warning Systems project at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA) takes this approach. Some approaches to conflict early warning combine both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, such as the formerly operational project called Swisspeace
.
in 1973 and that of the Falkland war in 1982 provoked a series of debates over the lack of early warning. The incident over the Falklands had taken the United Nations
completely by surprise and it is said “no map of the islands was available in the Secretariat when the invasion began”. The initial drivers, however, "were humanitarian agencies driven by the need for accurate and timely predictions of refugee flows to enable effective contingency planning”. After the end of the Cold War, political scientists at leading academic institutions began modifying old Cold War models of conflict to understand the onset of new wars. The horrors of the 1994 Rwandan genocide also spurred increased interest in operational conflict early warning systems. The FAST-project out of Swisspeace and the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER
) were responses to the genocide
.
Initial conceptions of conflict early warning materialized in the 1970s and 1980s but the field really emerged on the international policy agenda after the end of the Cold War
Cold War
The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States...
. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been developed for conflict forecasting and conflict monitoring. Qualitative methodologies typically draw on local area experts with extensive knowledge on one country or region. This is the approach taken by the International Crisis Group
International Crisis Group
The International Crisis Group is an international, non-profit, non-governmental organization whose mission is to prevent and resolve deadly conflicts around the world through field-based analyses and high-level advocacy.-History:...
, for example. In contrast, quantitative methodologies quantify conflict trends and use mathematical techniques to forecast future trends or "events of interest" (EOIs). For example, the Integrated Conflict Early Warning Systems project at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is an agency of the United States Department of Defense responsible for the development of new technology for use by the military...
(DARPA) takes this approach. Some approaches to conflict early warning combine both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, such as the formerly operational project called Swisspeace
Swisspeace
Swisspeace is a practice-oriented peace research institute located in Bern, Switzerland. It analyzes the causes of violent conflicts in order to develop strategies for their peaceful transformation.-History:...
.
Origins
The unanticipated events of the Yom Kippur warYom Kippur War
The Yom Kippur War, Ramadan War or October War , also known as the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the Fourth Arab-Israeli War, was fought from October 6 to 25, 1973, between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria...
in 1973 and that of the Falkland war in 1982 provoked a series of debates over the lack of early warning. The incident over the Falklands had taken the United Nations
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
completely by surprise and it is said “no map of the islands was available in the Secretariat when the invasion began”. The initial drivers, however, "were humanitarian agencies driven by the need for accurate and timely predictions of refugee flows to enable effective contingency planning”. After the end of the Cold War, political scientists at leading academic institutions began modifying old Cold War models of conflict to understand the onset of new wars. The horrors of the 1994 Rwandan genocide also spurred increased interest in operational conflict early warning systems. The FAST-project out of Swisspeace and the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER
Forum on Early Warning and Early Response
- The Forum on Early Warning and Early Response :The Forum on Early Warning and Early Response was established in 1997 as a non-profit and in response to the Rwandan genocide...
) were responses to the genocide
Genocide
Genocide is defined as "the deliberate and systematic destruction, in whole or in part, of an ethnic, racial, religious, or national group", though what constitutes enough of a "part" to qualify as genocide has been subject to much debate by legal scholars...
.