John Smart (futurist)
Encyclopedia
John Smart is a futurist and scholar of accelerating change
. He is founder and president of the Acceleration Studies Foundation
, an organization that does “outreach, education, research, and advocacy with respect to issues of accelerating change.”. Smart has an MS in futures studies from the University of Houston
, and a BS in business administration from U.C. Berkeley.
’s writings on ephemeralization
.
In what he calls the "developmental singularity hypothesis", Smart proposes that STEM compression, as a driver of accelerating change, must lead cosmic intelligence to a future of highly-miniaturized, accelerated, and local "transcension" to extra-universal domains, rather than to space-faring expansion within our existing universe. The transcension scenario (vs. expansion scenario) proposes that once civilizations saturate their local region of space with their intelligence, they need to leave our visible, macroscopic universe in order to continue exponential growth of complexity and intelligence, and thus disappear from this universe, thus explaining the Fermi Paradox
. Developments in astrobiology
make this a testable hypothesis. A related proposal may be found in the selfish biocosm hypothesis of complexity theorist James N. Gardner
.
Smart has been criticized by some in the futures community as overly reductionist
and a techno-optimist. His writings do discuss risks, abuses, and social regulation of technology, but usually as a secondary theme, subject to “inevitable” acceleration. In his defense, he claims universal and human-historical accelerating change (see Carl Sagan
's Cosmic Calendar
) do not appear to be simply a product of evolution
but of some universal developmental process, one apparently protected, in a general statistical sense, by poorly understood immune systems in complex systems. In his public presentations he calls for better characterization and use of existing processes of intelligence
, immunity
, and interdependence
development in biological, cultural, and technological systems. He has critiqued systems scholars such as Jonathan Huebner
, who claim that the rate of global innovation appears to be slowing down. His counterthesis is that innovation is increasingly conducted by and within technological systems, and is thereby becoming more abstract and difficult to measure by human social standards.
An advocate of foresight and “acceleration-awareness” in education, Smart has proposed a developmental categorization of futurist thinking, maintains a list of global futures studies programs, and has authored an open source
required undergraduate course in foresight development, modeled after required foresight courses at Tamkang University
in Taiwan
. He has argued that just as history
(hindsight) and current events (insight) are core general education requirements, the methods and knowledge base of futures studies (foresight), deserve inclusion in the modern undergraduate curriculum.
Accelerating change
In futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future...
. He is founder and president of the Acceleration Studies Foundation
Acceleration Studies Foundation
Acceleration Studies Foundation is a nonprofit organization founded by John Smart engaged in research, education, and selective advocacy of communities and technologies of accelerating change....
, an organization that does “outreach, education, research, and advocacy with respect to issues of accelerating change.”. Smart has an MS in futures studies from the University of Houston
University of Houston
The University of Houston is a state research university, and is the flagship institution of the University of Houston System. Founded in 1927, it is Texas's third-largest university with nearly 40,000 students. Its campus spans 667 acres in southeast Houston, and was known as University of...
, and a BS in business administration from U.C. Berkeley.
Ideas
Smart is the principal advocate of the concept of “STEM compression,” (formerly "MEST compression") the idea that the most (ostensibly) complex of the universe’s extant systems at any time (galaxies, stars, habitable planets, living systems, and now technological systems) use progressively less space, time, energy and matter (“STEM”) to create the next level of complexity in their evolutionary development. A similar perspective is found in Buckminster FullerBuckminster Fuller
Richard Buckminster “Bucky” Fuller was an American systems theorist, author, designer, inventor, futurist and second president of Mensa International, the high IQ society....
’s writings on ephemeralization
Ephemeralization
Ephemeralization, a term coined by R. Buckminster Fuller, is the ability of technological advancement to do "more and more with less and less until eventually you can do everything with nothing". Fuller's vision was that ephemeralization will result in ever-increasing standards of living for an...
.
In what he calls the "developmental singularity hypothesis", Smart proposes that STEM compression, as a driver of accelerating change, must lead cosmic intelligence to a future of highly-miniaturized, accelerated, and local "transcension" to extra-universal domains, rather than to space-faring expansion within our existing universe. The transcension scenario (vs. expansion scenario) proposes that once civilizations saturate their local region of space with their intelligence, they need to leave our visible, macroscopic universe in order to continue exponential growth of complexity and intelligence, and thus disappear from this universe, thus explaining the Fermi Paradox
Fermi paradox
The Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations....
. Developments in astrobiology
Astrobiology
Astrobiology is the study of the origin, evolution, distribution, and future of life in the universe. This interdisciplinary field encompasses the search for habitable environments in our Solar System and habitable planets outside our Solar System, the search for evidence of prebiotic chemistry,...
make this a testable hypothesis. A related proposal may be found in the selfish biocosm hypothesis of complexity theorist James N. Gardner
James N. Gardner
James N. Gardner, professional lobbyist, complexity theorist and graduate of Yale Law School, is the author of the Biocosm Hypothesis, which argues that intelligent life eventually emerges as the architect of the Universe.-Biography:...
.
Smart has been criticized by some in the futures community as overly reductionist
Reductionism
Reductionism can mean either an approach to understanding the nature of complex things by reducing them to the interactions of their parts, or to simpler or more fundamental things or a philosophical position that a complex system is nothing but the sum of its parts, and that an account of it can...
and a techno-optimist. His writings do discuss risks, abuses, and social regulation of technology, but usually as a secondary theme, subject to “inevitable” acceleration. In his defense, he claims universal and human-historical accelerating change (see Carl Sagan
Carl Sagan
Carl Edward Sagan was an American astronomer, astrophysicist, cosmologist, author, science popularizer and science communicator in astronomy and natural sciences. He published more than 600 scientific papers and articles and was author, co-author or editor of more than 20 books...
's Cosmic Calendar
Cosmic Calendar
The Cosmic Calendar is a scale in which the 13.7 billion year lifetime of the universe is mapped onto a single year. At this scale the Big Bang took place on January 1 at midnight, and the current time is mapped to December 31 at midnight. At this scale, there are 434 years per second, 1.57 million...
) do not appear to be simply a product of evolution
Evolution
Evolution is any change across successive generations in the heritable characteristics of biological populations. Evolutionary processes give rise to diversity at every level of biological organisation, including species, individual organisms and molecules such as DNA and proteins.Life on Earth...
but of some universal developmental process, one apparently protected, in a general statistical sense, by poorly understood immune systems in complex systems. In his public presentations he calls for better characterization and use of existing processes of intelligence
Intelligence
Intelligence has been defined in different ways, including the abilities for abstract thought, understanding, communication, reasoning, learning, planning, emotional intelligence and problem solving....
, immunity
Immunity (medical)
Immunity is a biological term that describes a state of having sufficient biological defenses to avoid infection, disease, or other unwanted biological invasion. Immunity involves both specific and non-specific components. The non-specific components act either as barriers or as eliminators of wide...
, and interdependence
Interdependence
Interdependence is a relation between its members such that each is mutually dependent on the others. This concept differs from a simple dependence relation, which implies that one member of the relationship can function or survive apart from the other....
development in biological, cultural, and technological systems. He has critiqued systems scholars such as Jonathan Huebner
Jonathan Huebner
Jonathan Huebner is a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center, in China Lake, California.-Views on innovation:He argues on the basis of both U.S. patents and world technological breakthroughs, per population, that the rate of human technological innovation peaked in 1873 and...
, who claim that the rate of global innovation appears to be slowing down. His counterthesis is that innovation is increasingly conducted by and within technological systems, and is thereby becoming more abstract and difficult to measure by human social standards.
An advocate of foresight and “acceleration-awareness” in education, Smart has proposed a developmental categorization of futurist thinking, maintains a list of global futures studies programs, and has authored an open source
Open source
The term open source describes practices in production and development that promote access to the end product's source materials. Some consider open source a philosophy, others consider it a pragmatic methodology...
required undergraduate course in foresight development, modeled after required foresight courses at Tamkang University
Tamkang University
Tamkang University is a private Taiwanese university located in Tamsui District, New Taipei City. Founded in 1950 as a junior college of English literature, the college has expanded into a full university with 11 colleges today....
in Taiwan
Taiwan
Taiwan , also known, especially in the past, as Formosa , is the largest island of the same-named island group of East Asia in the western Pacific Ocean and located off the southeastern coast of mainland China. The island forms over 99% of the current territory of the Republic of China following...
. He has argued that just as history
History
History is the discovery, collection, organization, and presentation of information about past events. History can also mean the period of time after writing was invented. Scholars who write about history are called historians...
(hindsight) and current events (insight) are core general education requirements, the methods and knowledge base of futures studies (foresight), deserve inclusion in the modern undergraduate curriculum.
See also
- Futurist
- Futures studies
- Strategic foresightStrategic foresightStrategic foresight is a fairly recent attempt to differentiate "futurology" from "futures studies". It arises from the premise that:*The future is not predictable;*The future is not predetermined; and...
- Technological singularityTechnological singularityTechnological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
- Accelerating changeAccelerating changeIn futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future...
- Evolutionary development
- EphemeralizationEphemeralizationEphemeralization, a term coined by R. Buckminster Fuller, is the ability of technological advancement to do "more and more with less and less until eventually you can do everything with nothing". Fuller's vision was that ephemeralization will result in ever-increasing standards of living for an...
- Fermi paradoxFermi paradoxThe Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations....
External links
- Acceleration Watch (formerly Singularity Watch) - Personal web site, includes extensive, print and web-published writings on accelerating changeAccelerating changeIn futures studies and the history of technology, accelerating change is a perceived increase in the rate of technological progress throughout history, which may suggest faster and more profound change in the future...
, evolutionary development, the technological singularityTechnological singularityTechnological singularity refers to the hypothetical future emergence of greater-than-human intelligence through technological means. Since the capabilities of such an intelligence would be difficult for an unaided human mind to comprehend, the occurrence of a technological singularity is seen as...
, and futures studies. - Biography page at KurzweilAI.net
- Stanford Singularity Summit (includes A/V of presentations by Smart and several relevant contemporaries)
- SYNCD.org - John Smart about accelerating change and the unbounded complexity and potential of the "inner space"