Beginner's luck refers to the supposed phenomenon of novice

Novice

A novice is a person or creature who is new to a field or activity. The term is most commonly applied in religion and sports.-Buddhism:In many Buddhist orders, a man or woman who intends to take ordination must first become a novice, adopting part of the monastic code indicated in the vinaya and...

s experiencing disproportionate frequency of success or succeeding against an expert in a given activity. One would expect experts to outperform novices - when the opposite happens it is counter-intuitive, hence the need for a term to describe this phenomenon

Phenomenon

A phenomenon , plural phenomena, is any observable occurrence. Phenomena are often, but not always, understood as 'appearances' or 'experiences'...

. The term is most often used in reference to a first attempt in sport

Sport

A Sport is all forms of physical activity which, through casual or organised participation, aim to use, maintain or improve physical fitness and provide entertainment to participants. Sport may be competitive, where a winner or winners can be identified by objective means, and may require a degree...

 or gambling

Gambling

Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods...

, but is also used in many other diverse contexts. The term is also used when no skill whatsoever is involved, such as a first-time slot machine

Slot machine

A slot machine , informally fruit machine , the slots , poker machine or "pokies" or simply slot is a casino gambling machine with three or more reels which spin when a button is pushed...

 player winning the jackpot

Progressive jackpot

A progressive jackpot is a jackpot for a gaming machine where the value of the jackpot increases a small amount for every game played...

.

Causes

Whether or not beginner's luck as a statistical phenomena actually occurs varies by the situation. There are many explanations:

1. Beginner's luck arises from a disconnect between the player and the pressure of the game. A novice player is inexperienced and consequently is not expected to do well. This means that there is no pressure on the player to excel; this lack of pressure allows the player to concentrate more than a pressured veteran player. This contradicts the Rosenthal effect which states that students who are expected to perform better usually perform better.
2. The experts of a game will believe in beginner's luck because they themselves experienced disproportional good fortune as novices. Suppose that 100 beginners play a game for the first time, and half win by random chance. The half that won is more likely to take an interest in the game and become experts, while the half that lose is more likely to lose interest and never play again. Thus, in any game, the "experts" will believe in beginner's luck, simply because they disproportionately experienced good fortune as novices themselves.
3. Another explanation begins by noting that the acquisition of a new skill imposes limitations on the number of actions available to an agent. In the early stages of this process, an almost unlimited number of actions are possible. Though almost all of these are ineffectual, the probability of unusually effective actions manifesting by chance is still greater than when one has attained a moderate degree of skill, since, as one’s ability improves, the scope of possible actions becomes both more lawful and more limited, subtending freakish deviations from the mean both directions. Due to the availability heuristic
   Availability heuristic
   The availability heuristic is a phenomenon in which people predict the frequency of an event, or a proportion within a population, based on how easily an example can be brought to mind....
   
   , these runs of flukish proficiency will stand out against the base rate of general ineptitude.
4. Belief in beginner's luck may result from Confirmation bias
   Confirmation bias
   Confirmation bias is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true.David Perkins, a geneticist, coined the term "myside bias" referring to a preference for "my" side of an issue...
   
   - occasions when a beginner performs unusually well are likely to be remembered, while occasions where a beginner performed badly are forgotten.

Beginner's luck is thought to end once a player gets involved with a game, and the "innocent" psychological mindset is replaced by one that is concerned with the nuances of the game.

See also

• Regression toward the mean
  Regression toward the mean
  In statistics, regression toward the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measurement, and—a fact that may superficially seem paradoxical—if it is extreme on a second measurement, will tend...
  
  
• Amateur
  Amateur
  An amateur is generally considered a person attached to a particular pursuit, study, or science, without pay and often without formal training....
  
  
• Jinx
  Jinx
  A jinx, in popular superstition and folklore, is:* A type of curse placed on a person that makes them prey to many minor misfortunes and other forms of bad luck;...
  
  
• Luck
  Luck
  Luck or fortuity is good fortune which occurs beyond one's control, without regard to one's will, intention, or desired result. There are at least two senses people usually mean when they use the term, the prescriptive sense and the descriptive sense...
  
  
• Mojo
• Odds
  Odds
  The odds in favor of an event or a proposition are expressed as the ratio of a pair of integers, which is the ratio of the probability that an event will happen to the probability that it will not happen...
  
  
• Psychology
  Psychology
  Psychology is the study of the mind and behavior. Its immediate goal is to understand individuals and groups by both establishing general principles and researching specific cases. For many, the ultimate goal of psychology is to benefit society...
  
  
• Rookie
  Rookie
  Rookie is a term for a person who is in his or her first year of play of their sport or has little or no professional experience. The term also has the more general meaning of anyone new to a profession, training or activity Rookie is a term for a person who is in his or her first year of play of...