Probability is a second season

Law & Order: Criminal Intent (season 2)

The second season of Law & Order: Criminal Intent premiered September 29, 2002 and ended May 18, 2003.-Cast:-Episodes:-References:...

 episode of the television series Law & Order: Criminal Intent

Law & Order: Criminal Intent

Law & Order: Criminal Intent is an American police procedural television drama series set in New York City, where it was also primarily produced. Created and produced by Dick Wolf and René Balcer, the series premiered on September 30, 2001, as the second spin-off of Wolf's successful crime drama...

.

Plot summary

In this episode, Detectives Goren

Robert Goren

Det. Robert "Bobby" Goren is a fictional character featured in the NBC-USA Network police procedural and legal drama television series Law & Order: Criminal Intent, portrayed by Vincent D'Onofrio....

 and Eames

Alexandra Eames

Det. Alexandra "Alex" Eames is a fictional police detective with the NYPD Major Case Squad featured in the NBC-USA Network Law & Order: Criminal Intent, portrayed by Kathryn Erbe...

 are called in to investigate the mysterious murder of a homeless man.

During the investigation, the team discover the seemingly random murders of several homeless people, using the same pattern, tracing them to an expensive hotel and uncovering a fraud involving a crooked insurance agent and foreign executives. It is clear that when the poor men turn up murdered, the suspects collect on lucrative life-insurance policies.

Goren calls in an extremely peculiar industry fraud expert, who diligently helps him profile

Offender profiling

Offender profiling, also known as criminal profiling, is a behavioral and investigative tool that is intended to help investigators to profile unknown criminal subjects or offenders. Offender profiling is also known as criminal profiling, criminal personality profiling, criminological profiling,...

 the culprits. But when the chief suspect is found dead in his apartment, with no sign of the money he stole, the detectives must call on all their experience to find out who really is pulling the strings.

Cast

Vincent D'Onofrio Vincent D'Onofrio Vincent Phillip D'Onofrio is an American actor, director, film producer, writer, and singer. Often referred to as an actor's actor, his work as a character actor has earned him the nickname of "Human Chameleon"...	Det. Robert Goren Robert Goren Det. Robert "Bobby" Goren is a fictional character featured in the NBC-USA Network police procedural and legal drama television series Law & Order: Criminal Intent, portrayed by Vincent D'Onofrio....
Kathryn Erbe Kathryn Erbe Kathryn Elsbeth Erbe is an American actress known for her role as Det. Alexandra Eames in Law & Order: Criminal Intent, a spin-off of Law & Order, and death row inmate Shirley Bellinger in the HBO series Oz.-Personal life:...	Det. Alexandra Eames Alexandra Eames Det. Alexandra "Alex" Eames is a fictional police detective with the NYPD Major Case Squad featured in the NBC-USA Network Law & Order: Criminal Intent, portrayed by Kathryn Erbe...
Jamey Sheridan Jamey Sheridan James Patrick "Jamey" Sheridan is an American actor. He was born in Pasadena, California.He has had a prolific acting career in theater, television, and feature film productions. Born to a family of actors, he made it to Broadway and earned a Tony nomination in 1987 for his performance in the...	Capt. James Deakins James Deakins Captain James Deakins is a fictional character on the NBC-USA Network U.S. television series, Law & Order: Criminal Intent, played by Jamey Sheridan.On the show, Deakins supervises New York City's Major Case Squad...
Courtney B. Vance Courtney B. Vance Courtney Bernard Vance is an American actor. He was formerly a regular on the NBC/USA television series Law & Order: Criminal Intent as Assistant District Attorney Ron Carver. He was also a series regular on the ABC series FlashForward. As of 2011, he appears on the TNT series The Closer as Chief...	A.D.A. Ron Carver Ron Carver Ron Carver is a fictional character on the NBC-USA Network series, Law & Order: Criminal Intent, played by Courtney B. Vance.Carver often works in conjunction with detectives Robert Goren, Alexandra Eames, Mike Logan and Carolyn Barek of the Major Case Squad. He graduated from John Jay College of...
Leslie Hendrix Leslie Hendrix Leslie Hendrix is an American actress. She is best known for playing the role of Elizabeth Rodgers on four Law & Order series...	Dr. Elizabeth Rodgers

Facts

• "Probability" is a reference to the actuarial theme of the episode. The mastermind of the plot to kill homeless persons would select manner and location of death, as well as other details about them, in a seemingly random pattern to prevent detection by actuarial algorithms or law enforcement. However, Goren is quick to notice that the "pattern" is too random, and when he investigates further he discovers that the mastermind, who has Asperger syndrome
  Asperger syndrome
  Asperger's syndrome that is characterized by significant difficulties in social interaction, alongside restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior and interests. It differs from other autism spectrum disorders by its relative preservation of linguistic and cognitive development...
  
  , is obsessed with groupings of 5 in a specific configuration. Goren finds a hidden pattern in the order in time and location of the murders, thus solving the case.
• Wally Stevens, the name of the insurance-fraud investigator character, is an inside joke: The name is taken from Wallace Stevens
  Wallace Stevens
  Wallace Stevens was an American Modernist poet. He was born in Reading, Pennsylvania, educated at Harvard and then New York Law School, and spent most of his life working as a lawyer for the Hartford insurance company in Connecticut.His best-known poems include "Anecdote of the Jar",...
  
  , the Pulitzer Prize
  Pulitzer Prize
  The Pulitzer Prize is a U.S. award for achievements in newspaper and online journalism, literature and musical composition. It was established by American publisher Joseph Pulitzer and is administered by Columbia University in New York City...
  
  -winning poet who also worked as vice president of The Hartford Accident and Indemnity Company
  The Hartford
  The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. , usually known as The Hartford, is a Fortune 500 company and one of America’s largest investment and insurance companies...
  
  .

Cultural references

• Alexandra Eames's comment "I didn't know you had an older geekier brother" to Robert Goren is a reference to the Academy-Award winning 1988 film Rain Man
  Rain Man
  Rain Man is a 1988 drama film written by Barry Morrow and Ronald Bass and directed by Barry Levinson. It tells the story of an abrasive and selfish yuppie, Charlie Babbitt, who discovers that his estranged father has died and bequeathed all of his multimillion-dollar estate to his other son,...
  
   starring Tom Cruise
  Tom Cruise
  Thomas Cruise Mapother IV , better known as Tom Cruise, is an American film actor and producer. He has been nominated for three Academy Awards and he has won three Golden Globe Awards....
  
   and Dustin Hoffman
  Dustin Hoffman
  Dustin Lee Hoffman is an American actor with a career in film, television, and theatre since 1960. He has been known for his versatile portrayals of antiheroes and vulnerable characters....
  
  . The characters Charlie Babbitt (Cruise) and Susanna (Valeria Golino
  Valeria Golino
  Valeria Golino is an Italian-Greek film and television actress. She is best known to English language audiences for the 1988 film Rain Man, and the Hot Shots! films...
  
  ) discover he has a long-lost older brother (Hoffman) with Asperger's Syndrome.

External links

• IMDb entry
• Official Website
• FINDING OUT: Adults and Autism; An Answer, but Not a Cure, for a Social Disorder hosted by New York Times