Richard C. Duncan
Encyclopedia
Richard Duncan is chief author of the Olduvai theory
, a prediction of rapidly declining world energy production. He has an MS in Electrical Engineering (1969) and a PhD in Systems Engineering (1973) from the University of Washington
. He has taught engineering, worked for Lear Jet
and Boeing
, and worked in power system engineering. In 1992 he founded the Institute on Energy and Man.
The Olduvai theory holds that the ratio of world energy production per capita, which he denotes by the metric e, would begin to decline around 2007 as the extraction rates of fossil fuel
s fall increasingly behind demand, causing catastrophic social and economic collapse
, starting with massive electrical blackout
s worldwide. He suggests that humans would eventually revert to a stone-age style
of living after the majority of the world's population
dies off over the coming century.
He bases his theory on the fact that a steep rise in global population and petroleum
use almost parallel each other but population increases at a slightly faster rate than does energy use.
Duncan's research data, compiled in partnership with geologist Dr. Walter Youngquist, have become widely used resources for those studying past and current trends in oil production and depletion
.
Olduvai theory
The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years . The theory provides a quantitative basis of the transient-pulse theory of modern civilization...
, a prediction of rapidly declining world energy production. He has an MS in Electrical Engineering (1969) and a PhD in Systems Engineering (1973) from the University of Washington
University of Washington
University of Washington is a public research university, founded in 1861 in Seattle, Washington, United States. The UW is the largest university in the Northwest and the oldest public university on the West Coast. The university has three campuses, with its largest campus in the University...
. He has taught engineering, worked for Lear Jet
Lear Jet
Learjet is a manufacturer of business jets for civilian and military use. It was founded in the late 1950s by William Powell Lear as Swiss American Aviation Corporation. Learjet is now a subsidiary of Bombardier and marketed as the "Bombardier Learjet Family".-History:The Learjet started life as an...
and Boeing
Boeing
The Boeing Company is an American multinational aerospace and defense corporation, founded in 1916 by William E. Boeing in Seattle, Washington. Boeing has expanded over the years, merging with McDonnell Douglas in 1997. Boeing Corporate headquarters has been in Chicago, Illinois since 2001...
, and worked in power system engineering. In 1992 he founded the Institute on Energy and Man.
The Olduvai theory holds that the ratio of world energy production per capita, which he denotes by the metric e, would begin to decline around 2007 as the extraction rates of fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes exceeds 650 million years...
s fall increasingly behind demand, causing catastrophic social and economic collapse
Economic collapse
There is no precise definition of an economic collapse. While some might consider a a severe, prolonged depression with high bankruptcy rates and high unemployment an economic collapse, others would additionally look for a breakdown in normal commerce, such as hyperinfalation, or even a sharp...
, starting with massive electrical blackout
Power outage
A power outage is a short- or long-term loss of the electric power to an area.There are many causes of power failures in an electricity network...
s worldwide. He suggests that humans would eventually revert to a stone-age style
Stone Age
The Stone Age is a broad prehistoric period, lasting about 2.5 million years , during which humans and their predecessor species in the genus Homo, as well as the earlier partly contemporary genera Australopithecus and Paranthropus, widely used exclusively stone as their hard material in the...
of living after the majority of the world's population
World population
The world population is the total number of living humans on the planet Earth. As of today, it is estimated to be billion by the United States Census Bureau...
dies off over the coming century.
He bases his theory on the fact that a steep rise in global population and petroleum
Petroleum
Petroleum or crude oil is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights and other liquid organic compounds, that are found in geologic formations beneath the Earth's surface. Petroleum is recovered mostly through oil drilling...
use almost parallel each other but population increases at a slightly faster rate than does energy use.
Duncan's research data, compiled in partnership with geologist Dr. Walter Youngquist, have become widely used resources for those studying past and current trends in oil production and depletion
Oil depletion
Oil depletion occurs in the second half of the production curve of an oil well, oil field, or the average of total world oil production. The Hubbert peak theory makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates. Hubbert curves predict that the...
.
External links
- The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization (less complete than the paper referenced above but updated more recently)
- "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm—and Population" by Walter Youngquist (1999)