Sabato's Crystal Ball
Encyclopedia
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a free, nonpartisan
weekly online newsletter and comprehensive website in the United States
that analyzes the current American political scene and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors
, and U.S. president races
. A publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics
, the Crystal Ball was founded by political analyst Larry Sabato
, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia
.
Over the past decade, the Crystal Ball has garnered a reputation for fair analysis and accurate predictions and is frequently cited by journalists and other political watchers.
In the end, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 433 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.6%), 32 of the 34 U.S. Senate races (94%), and 32 of the 36 governor’s races (88%).
cycle. In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the Crystal Ball sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention
in Boston
and the Republican National Convention
in New York City
. On Election Day, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor’s races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).
Race by race, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 417 of 435 U.S. House races (96%), 33 of 33 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 35 of 36 gubernatorial races (97%).
and editor of the America Votes series. Also in 2007, House Race Editor Dave Wasserman left to assume that same position at the Cook Political Report
and was replaced by Isaac Wood.
In July 2008, when many analysts were predicting a tight race for President
, the Crystal Ball published an essay which correctly projected that Barack Obama
would win in a near-landslide.
In the elections of November 2008
, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 421 of 435 U.S. House races (97%), 35 of 35 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 11 of 11 gubernatorial races (100%). In the presidential election, the Crystal Ball predicted an Electoral College victory of 364 to 174 for Democrat Barack Obama, a total which was just one vote off of the final tally.
marked the fifth federal election cycle in which the Crystal Ball has been published.
Sabato's predictions about the U.S. House were true, that the Republicans would gain 63 seats, more than Sabato's 60 seats that he said the Republicans would gain.
, Fox News, and CNBC
all praised its accuracy. Over the years, many journalists and political watchers have recognized the Crystal Ball for its singular record of accuracy, including Fred Barnes
, Lester Holt, Steve Doocy
, Larry Kudlow, Carl Cameron
, Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times
, and Will Vehrs of Punditwatch.
Nonpartisan
In political science, nonpartisan denotes an election, event, organization or person in which there is no formally declared association with a political party affiliation....
weekly online newsletter and comprehensive website in the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
that analyzes the current American political scene and predicts electoral outcomes for U.S House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, governors
Governor (United States)
In the United States, the title governor refers to the chief executive of each state or insular territory, not directly subordinate to the federal authorities, but the political and ceremonial head of the state.-Role and powers:...
, and U.S. president races
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
. A publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics
University of Virginia Center for Politics
The University of Virginia Center for Politics was founded in 1998 by professor and political analyst Larry J. Sabato to put into practice his belief that "Politics is a good thing!" The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, which seeks to increase...
, the Crystal Ball was founded by political analyst Larry Sabato
Larry Sabato
Larry Joseph Sabato is an American political scientist and analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and director of its Center for Politics. He founded Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and...
, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia
University of Virginia
The University of Virginia is a public research university located in Charlottesville, Virginia, United States, founded by Thomas Jefferson...
.
Over the past decade, the Crystal Ball has garnered a reputation for fair analysis and accurate predictions and is frequently cited by journalists and other political watchers.
2002
The Crystal Ball was first launched in September 2002, evolving from pre-election presentations given by founder Larry J. Sabato. For the midterm elections, the Crystal Ball tracked every U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race and the top 50 U.S. House of Representatives races. In 2002, the website received 160,000 hits, averaging over 5,000 hits per day over the last three weeks of the campaign. In addition, over 1,500 people subscribed to its weekly e-mail updates.In the end, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 433 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.6%), 32 of the 34 U.S. Senate races (94%), and 32 of the 36 governor’s races (88%).
2004
Following a post-election hiatus, the Crystal Ball re-launched on January 27, 2003 with an eye towards the 2004 electionUnited States presidential election, 2004
The United States presidential election of 2004 was the United States' 55th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Republican Party candidate and incumbent President George W. Bush defeated Democratic Party candidate John Kerry, the then-junior U.S. Senator...
cycle. In addition to continuing its e-mail newsletter and website analysis, the Crystal Ball sent correspondents to both the Democratic National Convention
1984 Democratic National Convention
The 1984 National Convention of the U.S. Democratic Party was held at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, California from July 16 to July 19, 1984, to select a candidate for the 1984 United States presidential election. At the convention Walter Mondale was nominated for President and Geraldine...
in Boston
Boston
Boston is the capital of and largest city in Massachusetts, and is one of the oldest cities in the United States. The largest city in New England, Boston is regarded as the unofficial "Capital of New England" for its economic and cultural impact on the entire New England region. The city proper had...
and the Republican National Convention
1984 Republican National Convention
The 1984 National Convention of the Republican Party of the United States convened on August 20 to August 23, 1984, at Reunion Arena in downtown Dallas, Texas. The convention nominated the incumbent Ronald Reagan of California for President of the United States and incumbent George H. W...
in New York City
New York City
New York is the most populous city in the United States and the center of the New York Metropolitan Area, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York exerts a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education, and...
. On Election Day, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 434 of the 435 U.S. House races (99.7%), 33 of 34 U.S. Senate races (97%), 10 of 11 governor’s races (91%), and 48 of 50 states in the presidential Electoral College (96%).
2006
During the 2006 election cycle the Crystal Ball added House Race Editor Dave Wasserman and expanded its election coverage and analysis. The Crystal Ball predicted a 29 seat pick-up for Democrats in the House and 6 seat pick-up in the Senate, both of which were exactly right.Race by race, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 417 of 435 U.S. House races (96%), 33 of 33 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 35 of 36 gubernatorial races (97%).
2008
In August 2007, the Crystal Ball added respected political analyst and author Rhodes Cook to its team, a veteran of Congressional QuarterlyCongressional Quarterly
Congressional Quarterly, Inc., or CQ, is a privately owned publishing company that produces a number of publications reporting primarily on the United States Congress...
and editor of the America Votes series. Also in 2007, House Race Editor Dave Wasserman left to assume that same position at the Cook Political Report
Cook Political Report
The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency. The Cook Political Report is led by a staff of five...
and was replaced by Isaac Wood.
In July 2008, when many analysts were predicting a tight race for President
United States presidential election, 2008
The United States presidential election of 2008 was the 56th quadrennial presidential election. It was held on November 4, 2008. Democrat Barack Obama, then the junior United States Senator from Illinois, defeated Republican John McCain, the senior U.S. Senator from Arizona. Obama received 365...
, the Crystal Ball published an essay which correctly projected that Barack Obama
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II is the 44th and current President of the United States. He is the first African American to hold the office. Obama previously served as a United States Senator from Illinois, from January 2005 until he resigned following his victory in the 2008 presidential election.Born in...
would win in a near-landslide.
In the elections of November 2008
United States elections, 2008
The 2008 United States general elections were held on November 4. The result was a significant victory for the Democratic Party on the national level, as they increased majorities in both houses of Congress and won the Presidency. Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican John McCain in the...
, the Crystal Ball correctly predicted 421 of 435 U.S. House races (97%), 35 of 35 U.S. Senate races (100%), and 11 of 11 gubernatorial races (100%). In the presidential election, the Crystal Ball predicted an Electoral College victory of 364 to 174 for Democrat Barack Obama, a total which was just one vote off of the final tally.
2010
The 2010 electionsUnited States elections, 2010
The 2010 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010. During this midterm election year, all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 37 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were contested in this election along with 38 state and territorial...
marked the fifth federal election cycle in which the Crystal Ball has been published.
Sabato's predictions about the U.S. House were true, that the Republicans would gain 63 seats, more than Sabato's 60 seats that he said the Republicans would gain.
Recognition
In 2006, the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism rated the Crystal Ball as the most accurate of all pre-election predictors. In addition, anchors of MSNBCMSNBC
MSNBC is a cable news channel based in the United States available in the US, Germany , South Africa, the Middle East and Canada...
, Fox News, and CNBC
CNBC
CNBC is a satellite and cable television business news channel in the U.S., owned and operated by NBCUniversal. The network and its international spinoffs cover business headlines and provide live coverage of financial markets. The combined reach of CNBC and its siblings is 390 million viewers...
all praised its accuracy. Over the years, many journalists and political watchers have recognized the Crystal Ball for its singular record of accuracy, including Fred Barnes
Fred Barnes (journalist)
Frederic W. Barnes is an American political commentator. He is the executive editor of the news publication The Weekly Standard and regularly appears on the Fox News Channel program Special Report with Bret Baier...
, Lester Holt, Steve Doocy
Steve Doocy
Stephen James "Steve" Doocy is an American network-television personality on the Fox News Channel, journalist, and a best selling author.-Early life:...
, Larry Kudlow, Carl Cameron
Carl Cameron
Carl Cameron is an American television journalist and commentator for Fox News Channel.-Early life and education:As a child Cameron spent several years in Iran, where his father worked as an archaeologist....
, Ed Chen of the Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
The Los Angeles Times is a daily newspaper published in Los Angeles, California, since 1881. It was the second-largest metropolitan newspaper in circulation in the United States in 2008 and the fourth most widely distributed newspaper in the country....
, and Will Vehrs of Punditwatch.
Contributors
Over the Crystal Ball’s history, it has published articles from staff members and a variety of well-known guest columnists, including:Guest columnists
- Alan AbramowitzAlan AbramowitzAlan I. Abramowitz is an American political scientist and author, known for his research and writings on American politics, elections, and political parties in political science....
- Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory UniversityEmory UniversityEmory University is a private research university in metropolitan Atlanta, located in the Druid Hills section of unincorporated DeKalb County, Georgia, United States. The university was founded as Emory College in 1836 in Oxford, Georgia by a small group of Methodists and was named in honor of...
in Atlanta. - James E. CampbellJames E. CampbellJames Edwin Campbell was a Democratic politician from Ohio. He served as the 38th Governor of Ohio.Campbell was born in Middletown, Ohio where he attended the public schools and then Miami University. He served in the Union Army as a member of the Mississippi River Squadron during the Civil War...
- Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University at Buffalo in New York. - Dale Eisman - Former Washington correspondent for the Virginian-Pilot
- Lawrence R. Jacobs - Walter F. and Joan Mondale Chair for Political Studies at the University of MinnesotaUniversity of MinnesotaThe University of Minnesota, Twin Cities is a public research university located in Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, United States. It is the oldest and largest part of the University of Minnesota system and has the fourth-largest main campus student body in the United States, with 52,557...
and the Director of the Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public AffairsHubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public AffairsThe Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs is a graduate public affairs school located at the University of Minnesota, ranking among the top 15 professional schools of public affairs at public universities in the country. It is named after Hubert H. Humphrey, former Vice President of the... - Dahlia LithwickDahlia Lithwick-External links:*...
- Contributing editor at NewsweekNewsweekNewsweek is an American weekly news magazine published in New York City. It is distributed throughout the United States and internationally. It is the second-largest news weekly magazine in the U.S., having trailed Time in circulation and advertising revenue for most of its existence...
and senior editor at SlateSlate (magazine)Slate is a US-based English language online current affairs and culture magazine created in 1996 by former New Republic editor Michael Kinsley, initially under the ownership of Microsoft as part of MSN. On 21 December 2004 it was purchased by the Washington Post Company... - Thomas E. MannThomas E. MannThomas E. Mann is a political scientist, author, and pundit who works at the Brookings Institution. He primarily studies and speaks on elections in the United States, especially campaign finance reform...
- Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institute in Washington, D.C. - Diana Owen - Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of American Studies at Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown UniversityGeorgetown University is a private, Jesuit, research university whose main campus is in the Georgetown neighborhood of Washington, D.C. Founded in 1789, it is the oldest Catholic university in the United States...
in Washington, D.C - Barbara A. PerryBarbara A. PerryDr. Barbara A. Perry, a U.S. Supreme Court and presidency expert, as well as a biographer of the Kennedys, is a Senior Fellow at the University of Virginia's Miller Center and is the former Carter Glass Professor of Government and founding director of the Center for Civic Renewal at Sweet Briar...
- Carter Glass Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Civic Renewal at Sweet Briar CollegeSweet Briar CollegeSweet Briar College is a liberal arts women's college in Sweet Briar, Virginia, about north of Lynchburg, Virginia. The school's Latin motto translates as: "She who has earned the rose may bear it."...
in Virginia
Current staff
- Rhodes Cook - Senior Columnist for the Crystal Ball and author
- Cordel Faulk - Director of Communications, Media and Research for the University of Virginia Center for PoliticsUniversity of Virginia Center for PoliticsThe University of Virginia Center for Politics was founded in 1998 by professor and political analyst Larry J. Sabato to put into practice his belief that "Politics is a good thing!" The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, which seeks to increase...
and former commentary editor at the Richmond Times-DispatchRichmond Times-DispatchThe Richmond Times-Dispatch is the primary daily newspaper in Richmond the capital of Virginia, United States, and is commonly considered the "newspaper of record" for events occurring in much of the state... - Joseph Figueroa - Executive Assistant to Larry SabatoLarry SabatoLarry Joseph Sabato is an American political scientist and analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and director of its Center for Politics. He founded Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and...
- Larry SabatoLarry SabatoLarry Joseph Sabato is an American political scientist and analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and director of its Center for Politics. He founded Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and...
- Founder of the University of Virginia Center for PoliticsUniversity of Virginia Center for PoliticsThe University of Virginia Center for Politics was founded in 1998 by professor and political analyst Larry J. Sabato to put into practice his belief that "Politics is a good thing!" The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, which seeks to increase...
and Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of VirginiaUniversity of VirginiaThe University of Virginia is a public research university located in Charlottesville, Virginia, United States, founded by Thomas Jefferson... - Paul Wiley - Staff writer
- Isaac Wood - House Race Editor for the Crystal Ball
Former staff
- Michael Baudinet - Former Executive Assistant to Larry SabatoLarry SabatoLarry Joseph Sabato is an American political scientist and analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, and director of its Center for Politics. He founded Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and...
- Peter Jackson - Former Deputy Director of Communications for the University of Virginia Center for PoliticsUniversity of Virginia Center for PoliticsThe University of Virginia Center for Politics was founded in 1998 by professor and political analyst Larry J. Sabato to put into practice his belief that "Politics is a good thing!" The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, which seeks to increase...
- Rakesh Gopalan - Former Senior Editor and Research Analyst for the University of Virginia Center for PoliticsUniversity of Virginia Center for PoliticsThe University of Virginia Center for Politics was founded in 1998 by professor and political analyst Larry J. Sabato to put into practice his belief that "Politics is a good thing!" The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, which seeks to increase...
- Dan Keyserling - Former Deputy Director of Communications for the University of Virginia Center for PoliticsUniversity of Virginia Center for PoliticsThe University of Virginia Center for Politics was founded in 1998 by professor and political analyst Larry J. Sabato to put into practice his belief that "Politics is a good thing!" The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, which seeks to increase...
- Matt Smyth - Former Senior Editor and Director of Communications for the University of Virginia Center for PoliticsUniversity of Virginia Center for PoliticsThe University of Virginia Center for Politics was founded in 1998 by professor and political analyst Larry J. Sabato to put into practice his belief that "Politics is a good thing!" The Center for Politics is a nonpartisan organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia, which seeks to increase...
- David Wasserman - Former House Race Editor for the Crystal Ball and current House Editor for the Cook Political ReportCook Political ReportThe Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency. The Cook Political Report is led by a staff of five...