1948 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes
Encyclopedia
The 1948 Tinker Air Force Base tornadoes were two tornado
es which struck Tinker Air Force Base
in Oklahoma City
, Oklahoma
on March 20 and March 25, 1948. The March 20 tornado was the costliest tornado in Oklahoma history at the time, and still ranks as the second-most damaging in the state. On March 25, meteorologists at the base noticed the extreme similarity between the weather conditions of that day and March 20, and later in the day issued a "tornado forecast
", which was verified when a tornado struck the base yet again that evening. This was the first official tornado forecast, as well as the first successful tornado forecast, in recorded history.
s and computer modeling. Thunderstorms were not even in the forecast for the evening of March 20. However, around 9:30 pm storms were reported about 20 miles (32.2 km) to the southwest, and at 9:52 a tornado was sighted near Will Rogers Airport 7 miles (11.3 km) away, along with a 92 miles per hour (148.1 km/h) wind gust, moving northeast towards the base.
At 10:00, the tornado reached the southwest corner of the base. Illuminated by nearly-constant lightning, the tornado was highly visible as it bisected the base, tossing around planes which were parked in the open. The control tower
reported a 78 miles per hour (125.5 km/h) wind gust before the windows shattered, injuring several personnel with flying glass. The tornado dissipated at the northeast corner of the base.
The tornado missed most structures on the base, but the damage to expensive military aircraft was substantial. The total damage cost came to around $10.25 million, or $ million in United States dollar
s. This was the most damaging tornado in Oklahoma
up to that date.
Both of these investigations began almost immediately. In the days following the tornado, Tinker's meteorologists Major Ernest J. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller investigated surface
and upper-air weather data from this and past tornado outbreaks, hoping to be able to identify conditions which were favorable for tornadoes. By March 24, they had compiled several possible tornado indicators, and decided it would be difficult, but possible, to identify large tornado threat areas
in the future.
On the morning of March 25, base meteorologists noticed that weather charts for the day were strikingly similar to those before the March 20 tornado. Forecasts issued by the Weather Bureau
indicated that almost the same conditions would be present in the evening of March 25 as were present on March 20. In the morning, they issued a forecast for "heavy thunderstorms" effective for 5–6 pm that evening. This would allow the base's commander to alert base personnel that they may institute their brand-new tornado precautions.
As the day wore on, conditions appeared more and more favorable for thunderstorms, and more and more similar to the events of March 20. Weather radar
images showed a severe squall line
had formed to the west, and weather station
s to the west reported cumulonimbus cloud
s and thunderstorms. In an afternoon meeting, under some pressure from their commanding officer, base meteorologists composed and issued the first official tornado forecast. Although they were aware of the small chance of success, they felt they had no choice, since the conditions were so similar to March 20. Equipment which could be was moved to bomb-proof shelters, and base personnel were moved to safer areas.
formed just west of the base, and a tornado touched down on the base for the second time in six days. This second tornado caused $6 million in damage, or $ million in dollars
. However, due to precautions enacted because of the tornado forecast, no injuries were reported, and damage totals could have been much higher.
Due to lives and costs saved, Fawbush and Miller continued their tornado forecasts, which verified at quite a high rate over the next three years. At first, they kept their forecasts secret. In the spring and summer of 1949, they issued eighteen forecasts for tornadoes within a 100 square miles (258,998.8 km) area, and all eighteen proved successful. In the subsequent years, while not explicitly using the word "tornado", the Weather Bureau used the pair's forecasts to predict "severe local storms".
Tornado
A tornado is a violent, dangerous, rotating column of air that is in contact with both the surface of the earth and a cumulonimbus cloud or, in rare cases, the base of a cumulus cloud. They are often referred to as a twister or a cyclone, although the word cyclone is used in meteorology in a wider...
es which struck Tinker Air Force Base
Tinker Air Force Base
Tinker Air Force Base is a major U.S. Air Force base, with tenant U.S. Navy and other Department of Defense missions, located in the southeast Oklahoma City, Oklahoma area, directly south of the suburb of Midwest City, Oklahoma.-Overview:...
in Oklahoma City
Oklahoma city
Oklahoma City is the capital and largest city of the U.S. state of Oklahoma.Oklahoma City may also refer to:*Oklahoma City metropolitan area*Downtown Oklahoma City*Uptown Oklahoma City*Oklahoma City bombing*Oklahoma City National Memorial...
, Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is a state located in the South Central region of the United States of America. With an estimated 3,751,351 residents as of the 2010 census and a land area of 68,667 square miles , Oklahoma is the 28th most populous and 20th-largest state...
on March 20 and March 25, 1948. The March 20 tornado was the costliest tornado in Oklahoma history at the time, and still ranks as the second-most damaging in the state. On March 25, meteorologists at the base noticed the extreme similarity between the weather conditions of that day and March 20, and later in the day issued a "tornado forecast
Weather forecasting
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century...
", which was verified when a tornado struck the base yet again that evening. This was the first official tornado forecast, as well as the first successful tornado forecast, in recorded history.
March 20 tornado
Weather forecasting was still crude and prone to large errors in the era before weather satelliteWeather satellite
The weather satellite is a type of satellite that is primarily used to monitor the weather and climate of the Earth. Satellites can be either polar orbiting, seeing the same swath of the Earth every 12 hours, or geostationary, hovering over the same spot on Earth by orbiting over the equator while...
s and computer modeling. Thunderstorms were not even in the forecast for the evening of March 20. However, around 9:30 pm storms were reported about 20 miles (32.2 km) to the southwest, and at 9:52 a tornado was sighted near Will Rogers Airport 7 miles (11.3 km) away, along with a 92 miles per hour (148.1 km/h) wind gust, moving northeast towards the base.
At 10:00, the tornado reached the southwest corner of the base. Illuminated by nearly-constant lightning, the tornado was highly visible as it bisected the base, tossing around planes which were parked in the open. The control tower
Control tower
A control tower, or more specifically an Air Traffic Control Tower , is the name of the airport building from which the air traffic control unit controls the movement of aircraft on and around the airport. Control towers are also used to control the traffic for other forms of transportation such...
reported a 78 miles per hour (125.5 km/h) wind gust before the windows shattered, injuring several personnel with flying glass. The tornado dissipated at the northeast corner of the base.
The tornado missed most structures on the base, but the damage to expensive military aircraft was substantial. The total damage cost came to around $10.25 million, or $ million in United States dollar
United States dollar
The United States dollar , also referred to as the American dollar, is the official currency of the United States of America. It is divided into 100 smaller units called cents or pennies....
s. This was the most damaging tornado in Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is a state located in the South Central region of the United States of America. With an estimated 3,751,351 residents as of the 2010 census and a land area of 68,667 square miles , Oklahoma is the 28th most populous and 20th-largest state...
up to that date.
Investigation and tornado forecast
In the aftermath of the first tornado, an official inquiry was conducted into the failure to predict the destructive tornado. Air Force investigators came to the conclusion that "due to the nature of the storm it was not forecastable given the present state of the art." They also made recommendations that the meteorological community determine a tornado warning system for the public, as well as a protocol for protecting life and property at military bases.Both of these investigations began almost immediately. In the days following the tornado, Tinker's meteorologists Major Ernest J. Fawbush and Captain Robert C. Miller investigated surface
Surface weather analysis
Surface weather analysis is a special type of weather map that provides a view of weather elements over a geographical area at a specified time based on information from ground-based weather stations...
and upper-air weather data from this and past tornado outbreaks, hoping to be able to identify conditions which were favorable for tornadoes. By March 24, they had compiled several possible tornado indicators, and decided it would be difficult, but possible, to identify large tornado threat areas
Tornado watch
A tornado watch is issued when conditions are right for a tornado to form. Since any thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado is defined as severe, a tornado watch is also automatically a severe thunderstorm watch...
in the future.
On the morning of March 25, base meteorologists noticed that weather charts for the day were strikingly similar to those before the March 20 tornado. Forecasts issued by the Weather Bureau
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service , once known as the Weather Bureau, is one of the six scientific agencies that make up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States government...
indicated that almost the same conditions would be present in the evening of March 25 as were present on March 20. In the morning, they issued a forecast for "heavy thunderstorms" effective for 5–6 pm that evening. This would allow the base's commander to alert base personnel that they may institute their brand-new tornado precautions.
As the day wore on, conditions appeared more and more favorable for thunderstorms, and more and more similar to the events of March 20. Weather radar
Weather radar
Weather radar, also called weather surveillance radar and Doppler weather radar, is a type of radar used to locate precipitation, calculate its motion, estimate its type . Modern weather radars are mostly pulse-Doppler radars, capable of detecting the motion of rain droplets in addition to the...
images showed a severe squall line
Squall line
A squall line is a line of severe thunderstorms that can form along or ahead of a cold front. In the early 20th century, the term was used as a synonym for cold front. It contains heavy precipitation, hail, frequent lightning, strong straight-line winds, and possibly tornadoes and waterspouts....
had formed to the west, and weather station
Weather station
A weather station is a facility, either on land or sea, with instruments and equipment for observing atmospheric conditions to provide information for weather forecasts and to study the weather and climate. The measurements taken include temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, wind speed, wind...
s to the west reported cumulonimbus cloud
Cumulonimbus cloud
Cumulonimbus is a towering vertical cloud that is very tall, dense, and involved in thunderstorms and other inclement weather. Cumulonimbus originates from Latin: Cumulus "Heap" and nimbus "rain". It is a result of atmospheric instability. These clouds can form alone, in clusters, or along a cold...
s and thunderstorms. In an afternoon meeting, under some pressure from their commanding officer, base meteorologists composed and issued the first official tornado forecast. Although they were aware of the small chance of success, they felt they had no choice, since the conditions were so similar to March 20. Equipment which could be was moved to bomb-proof shelters, and base personnel were moved to safer areas.
March 25 tornado
Although storms were relatively benign up to the point where they reached Tinker, a supercellSupercell
A supercell is a thunderstorm that is characterized by the presence of a mesocyclone: a deep, continuously-rotating updraft. For this reason, these storms are sometimes referred to as rotating thunderstorms...
formed just west of the base, and a tornado touched down on the base for the second time in six days. This second tornado caused $6 million in damage, or $ million in dollars
United States dollar
The United States dollar , also referred to as the American dollar, is the official currency of the United States of America. It is divided into 100 smaller units called cents or pennies....
. However, due to precautions enacted because of the tornado forecast, no injuries were reported, and damage totals could have been much higher.
Aftermath
The tornado prediction was a rousing success. Before this point, the Weather Bureau had a policy against issuing tornado warnings, mainly due to fear of panic by the public, and subsequent complacency if forecasts turned out to be false alarms.Due to lives and costs saved, Fawbush and Miller continued their tornado forecasts, which verified at quite a high rate over the next three years. At first, they kept their forecasts secret. In the spring and summer of 1949, they issued eighteen forecasts for tornadoes within a 100 square miles (258,998.8 km) area, and all eighteen proved successful. In the subsequent years, while not explicitly using the word "tornado", the Weather Bureau used the pair's forecasts to predict "severe local storms".
See also
- Weather forecastingWeather forecastingWeather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a given location. Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since the nineteenth century...
- 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak#The Bridge Creek-Moore F5, another tornado that affected the airbase