Rationale for the Conference

"Despite 17 years of negotiations since the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise. Since 2000 the rates of annual emissions growth have increased at rates at the upper end of the IPCC scenarios, presenting the global community with a stark challenge: either instigate an immediate and radical reversal in existing emission trends or accept global temperature rises well beyond 4°."

"The immediacy and scale of the reductions necessary to avoid anything below 4°C, and indeed the human and ecosystem implications of living with 4°C, are beyond anything we have been prepared to countenance. Understanding the implications of 4°C and higher temperatures is essential if global society is to make informed choices about the balance between "extreme" rates of mitigation and "extreme" impacts and adaptation costs."

"The aim of this conference is therefore to: (i) assess the consequences of a change in global temperature above 4°C for a range of systems and sectors, and (ii) explore the options that are open for avoiding climate changes of this magnitude. The results of the conference will form an important background to the COP 15 United Nations Climate Change Conference, in Copenhagen, December 2009, and the inevitable negotiations that will follow COP 15."

Participation invitation

"1. Invited keynote talks that:"

a. provide state of the art assessments of the impacts of 4+°C climate change for a range of human, ecological and earth systems."

b. reframe the mitigation challenge in terms of steps necessary to avoid the significant risk of a 4-5 degree warming under different emissions reduction scenarios and the options open to enable a clear avoidance of such a risk."

2. Open call for oral and poster papers in the above themes, with a focus on regional examples that complement keynote topics."

Collated links to conference media and post-conference publications

• Dr. Mark New, Introduction. | Audio | MP4 video (71 MB) |

Preface (to the special issue): Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:4-5; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0304.

Introduction (to the special issue): Mark New, Diana Liverman, Heike Schroder, and Kevin Anderson

Kevin Anderson (scientist)

Professor Kevin Anderson is the Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; holds a joint chair in Energy and Climate Change at the School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester and School of Environmental Sciences at University of East...

. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/6.full.pdf+html Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications.] Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:6-19; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0303.

• Prof John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact research
  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a research institute specialising in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.-References:* USA Today -Further Reading:* Study -See Also:* Climatic Research Unit...
  
  . Terra quasi-incognita: beyond the 2 degree C line. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (284 MB) |

• Dr Richard Betts, Met Office
  Met Office
  The Met Office , is the United Kingdom's national weather service, and a trading fund of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills...
  
   Hadley Center
  Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
  The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change — named in honour of George Hadley — is part of, and based at the headquarters of the Met Office in Exeter...
  
  . Regional climate changes at 4+ degrees. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video, (284 MB) |

Richard A. Betts, Matthew Collins, Deborah L. Hemming, Chris D. Jones, Jason A. Lowe, and Michael G. Sanderson. When could global warming reach 4°C? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:67-84; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292.

M. G. Sanderson, D. L. Hemming, and R. A. Betts. Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (=4°C) global warming. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:85-98; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0283

• Prof Nigel Arnell, Univ. of Reading
  University of Reading
  The University of Reading is a university in the English town of Reading, Berkshire. The University was established in 1892 as University College, Reading and received its Royal Charter in 1926. It is based on several campuses in, and around, the town of Reading.The University has a long tradition...
  
  . 4+ degrees C: impacts across the global scale. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (165 MB) |

• Dr Philip Thornton, Int'l Livestock Research Inst.
  International Livestock Research Institute
  The International Livestock Research Institute is an international agricultural research institute based in Nairobi, Kenya, and founded in 1994 by the merging of the International Livestock Centre for Africa and the International Laboratory for Research on Animal Diseases...
  
  , Nairobi, Inst. of Atmos. & Env. Sciences, Univ. of Edinburgh
  University of Edinburgh
  The University of Edinburgh, founded in 1583, is a public research university located in Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland, and a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The university is deeply embedded in the fabric of the city, with many of the buildings in the historic Old Town belonging to the university...
  
  . 4+ Degrees C: what might this mean for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (174 MB) |

Philip K. Thornton, Peter G. Jones, Polly J. Ericksen, and Andrew J. Challinor. Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:117-136; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0246.

• Dr Polly Ericksen, GECAFS/ECI, University of Oxford. Adapting African food systems to a 4+°C world. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video, 137 MB) |

• Dr Reimund Rotter, MTT Agrifood Research Finland. What would happen to barley production in Finland if global temperature increases above 4+°C? | Slides |Audio | MP4 video (136 MB) |

• Mr Rasack Nayamuth, Mauritius Sugar Industry Research Institute. 4+ oC: A Drastic reduction in the renewable energy potential of sugarcane. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (151 MB) |

• Dr Andrew Challinor, University of Leeds. Crop yields at 4+ oC: implications for adaptation | Slides |Audio | MP4 video (169 MB) |

• Dr Fai Fung, Tyndall Centre, University of Oxford. Risked posed to global water availability by a 4+°C climate change. | Slides | MP4 video (145 MB) |

Fai Fung, Ana Lopez, and Mark New. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:99-116; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0293.

• Dr Matthew Charlton, Walker Institute. Limits to adaptation: implications of global temperature changes beyond 4+°C for water supply in southern England | Slides |

• Prof Anders Levermann
  Anders Levermann
  Anders Levermann is a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a Professor of the Dynamics of the Climate System at Potsdam University, Germany. He was contributing author to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which...
  
  , Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research
  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a research institute specialising in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.-References:* USA Today -Further Reading:* Study -See Also:* Climatic Research Unit...
  
  . Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions | Slides |Audio | MP4 video (119 MB) |

• Prof Yadvinder Malhi, Env. Change Inst., School of Geography and the Env., University of Oxford. Tropical forests in a 4+°C world. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (227 MB) |

Przemyslaw Zelazowski, Yadvinder Malhi, Chris Huntingford, Stephen Sitch, and Joshua B. Fisher. Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:137-160; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0238. (Subscription). | Abstract |Data Supplement |

• Prof Wolfgang Cramer, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research
  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a research institute specialising in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.-References:* USA Today -Further Reading:* Study -See Also:* Climatic Research Unit...
  
  . Changing climate, land use and fire in Amazonia under high warming scenarios | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (172 MB) |

• Prof Andy Moffat, Forest Research
  Forest Research
  Forest Research is the research agency of the Forestry Commission, a government department in the United Kingdom. Its core roles are to provide the evidence base for UK forestry practices and to support innovation. It has research and office facilities within Alice Holt Forest, near Farnham in...
  
  . Living with uncertainty – UK forestry beyond 4+°C | Slides | Audio |

• Jose Marengo, Earth System Science Centre, Nat'l Inst. for Space Research
  National Institute for Space Research
  The National Institute for Space Research is a research unit of the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology, whose main goals are fostering scientific research and technological applications and qualifying personnel in the fields of space and atmospheric sciences, space engineering, and space...
  
  , Brazil. Projected impacts of 4+°C warming in the semiarid lands of northeast Brazil. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (115 MB) |

• Dr Pier Vellinga
  Pier Vellinga
  Pier Vellinga is one of the Netherlands experts on the impacts of climate change.-Position in 2009:Vellinga is the chairman of the Knowledge for Climate research program and vice chairman of the Climate Changes Spatial Planning program...
  
  , Wageningen Univ.
  Wageningen University
  Wageningen University and Research Centre is a Dutch public university in Wageningen, The Netherlands. It consists of Wageningen University, the Van Hall-Larenstein School of Higher Professional Education, and the former agricultural research institutes of the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture...
  
  . Sea level rise and impacts in a 4+°C World. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (193 MB) |

• Prof Stefan Rahmstorf
  Stefan Rahmstorf
  Stefan Rahmstorf is a German oceanographer and climatologist. Since 2000, he has been a Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University. He received his Ph.D. in oceanography from Victoria University of Wellington...
  
  , Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research
  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a research institute specialising in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.-References:* USA Today -Further Reading:* Study -See Also:* Climatic Research Unit...
  
  . Sea-level rise in a 4°C world | Slides | [haudio/5-2rahmstorf.mp3 Audio] | MP4 video (151 MB)|

• Diogo de Gusmao, Met Office
  Met Office
  The Met Office , is the United Kingdom's national weather service, and a trading fund of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills...
  
   Hadley Center
  Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
  The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change — named in honour of George Hadley — is part of, and based at the headquarters of the Met Office in Exeter...
  
  . Sea level rise projections for the warmest IPCC SRES simulations. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (141 MB) |

• Prof Robert Nicholls and Sally Brown, Univ. of Southampton
  University of Southampton
  The University of Southampton is a British public university located in the city of Southampton, England, a member of the Russell Group. The origins of the university can be dated back to the founding of the Hartley Institution in 1862 by Henry Robertson Hartley. In 1902, the Institution developed...
  
  . Impacts of sea-level rise at 4+°C. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (158 MB) |

Robert J. Nicholls, Natasha Marinova, Jason A. Lowe, Sally Brown, Pier

• Dr Jochen Hinkel, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research
  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a research institute specialising in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.-References:* USA Today -Further Reading:* Study -See Also:* Climatic Research Unit...
  
  . The impacts of sea-level rise on coastal nations with and without mitigation. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models. | Slides | Audio MP4 video (137 MB) |

• Prof David Karoly
  David Karoly
  David John Karoly is an Australian scientist and academic. He is an expert in climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion and climate variations due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation....
  
  , Univ. of Melbourne
  University of Melbourne
  The University of Melbourne is a public university located in Melbourne, Victoria. Founded in 1853, it is the second oldest university in Australia and the oldest in Victoria...
  
  . Wildfire in a 4+°C World. | Slides | audio/6-1karoly.mp3 Audio | MP4 video (148 MB) |

• Dr Simon Hales, World Health Org. Estimating human population health impacts in a 4+°C world. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (108.5 MB) |

• Dr Francois Gemenne, Sciences Po Paris. Climate-Induced Population Displacements in a 4+°C World. |Slides | Audio | MP4 video (167 MB) |

François Gemenne. Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C+ world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:182-195; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0287. (Subscription) | Abstract |

• Dr Pamela McElwee, Arizona State Univ.
  Arizona State University
  Arizona State University is a public research university located in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area of the State of Arizona...
  
   . Social Vulnerability And Adaptation Possibilities For Vietnam In A 4+&Deg;C World. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (156 MB) |

• 4°C of climate change: alarmist or realist? | Audio | Moderator: Prof Diana Liverman. Panelists: Mark Lynas
  Mark Lynas
  Mark Lynas is a British author, journalist and environmental activist who focuses on climate change. He is a contributor to New Statesman, Ecologist, Granta and Geographical magazines, and The Guardian and The Observer newspapers in the UK; he also worked on the film The Age of Stupid...
  
   (author), Dr Kevin Anderson (scientist)
  Kevin Anderson (scientist)
  Professor Kevin Anderson is the Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; holds a joint chair in Energy and Climate Change at the School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester and School of Environmental Sciences at University of East...
  
   (Dir. Tyndall Centre), Dr Chris West (Dir. UK Climate Impact Progamme), Ian Noble (Climate Advisor The World Bank), and James Painter (Reuters).

• Prof Leonard Smith, London School of Economics
  London School of Economics
  The London School of Economics and Political Science is a public research university specialised in the social sciences located in London, United Kingdom, and a constituent college of the federal University of London...
  
  . One, Two, Three, More: Challenges to Describing a Warmer World. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (181 MB) |

• Dr Mark Stafford Smith, CSIRO. How adaptation decision-making is affected by the potential for 4+°C. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (141 MB) |

Mark Stafford Smith, Lisa Horrocks, Alex Harvey, and Clive Hamilton

Clive Hamilton

Clive Charles Hamilton AM FRSA is an Australian public intellectual and Professor of Public Ethics at the Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics and the Vice-Chancellor's Chair in Public Ethics at Charles Sturt University. He is the Founder and former Executive Director of the The...

. Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:196-216; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0277.

• Dr Michael Morecroft, Natural England
  Natural England
  Natural England is the non-departmental public body of the UK government responsible for ensuring that England's natural environment, including its land, flora and fauna, freshwater and marine environments, geology and soils, are protected and improved...
  
  . Nature conservation in a 4+°C world - a luxury or a necessity? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (128 MB) |

• Ms Lisa Horrocks, AEA
  AEA Technology
  AEA Technology plc was formed in 1996 as the privatised offshoot of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority. It is a constituent of the FTSE Fledgling Index. Originally it consisted of divisions with expertise in a wide variety of areas, mostly the products of nuclear-related research...
  
   . The implications of 4+°C warming for adaptation strategies in the UK: time to change? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (182 MB) |

• Dr Jason Lowe, The Met Office
  Met Office
  The Met Office , is the United Kingdom's national weather service, and a trading fund of the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills...
  
  . 4+°C: the emissions reduction challenge. | (no media available) |

• Dr Myles Allen
  Myles Allen
  Myles R. Allen is head of the Climate Dynamics group at the University of Oxford's Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department. He is the Principal Investigator of the distributed computing project Climateprediction.net , and was principally responsible for starting this project.He has...
  
  , Department of Physics, University of Oxford. What will it take to avoid 2, 3 and 4+°C? the importance of cumulative emissions. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (160 MB) |

Niel H. A. Bowerman, David J. Frame, Chris Huntingford, Jason A. Lowe, and Myles R. Allen

Myles Allen

Myles R. Allen is head of the Climate Dynamics group at the University of Oxford's Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department. He is the Principal Investigator of the distributed computing project Climateprediction.net , and was principally responsible for starting this project.He has...

. Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:45-66; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0288. (Subscription) | Abstract |

• Dr Rob Swart, Wageningen Univ. & Research Centre
  Wageningen University
  Wageningen University and Research Centre is a Dutch public university in Wageningen, The Netherlands. It consists of Wageningen University, the Van Hall-Larenstein School of Higher Professional Education, and the former agricultural research institutes of the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture...
  
  . Beyond 4°C: should we reconsider our options? | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (160 MB) |

• Ms Holly Preston, Dalton Research Inst., Manchester Metro. Univ.
  Manchester Metropolitan University
  Manchester Metropolitan University is a university in North West England. Its headquarters and central campus is in the city of Manchester, but there are outlying facilities in the county of Cheshire. It is the third largest university in the United Kingdom in terms of student numbers, behind the...
  
   The role of international transportation sectors in climate stabilization. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (132 MB) |

• Prof Kevin Anderson (scientist)
  Kevin Anderson (scientist)
  Professor Kevin Anderson is the Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; holds a joint chair in Energy and Climate Change at the School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester and School of Environmental Sciences at University of East...
  
  , Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Global emission pathways: balancing Annex 1 mitigation with non-Annex 1 development. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (216 MB) |

Kevin Anderson and Alice Bows. Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:20-44; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0290.

• Prof Bertrand Guillaume, Univ. of Tech. of Troyes
  University of Technology of Troyes
  The University of Technology of Troyes is a French university, in the Academy of Reims.The UTT is part of the network of the three universities of technology, found by the University of Technology of Compiègne...
  
  . Avoiding a 4+°C world: A challenge for democracy. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (100 MB) |

• Dr Hari Dulal, The World Bank. Greenhouse Gas Contributions and Mitigation Potential of Agriculture: Creating Incentives within the Existing Carbon Trading Agreements. | Slides | Audio | MP4 video (100 MB) |

Additional papers from the Royal Society special issue

• David Garner. Editorial. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:3; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0289.

• Rachel Warren. The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A January 13, 2011 369:217-241; doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0271.

Poster Sessions

• Prof. Raul Ponce-Hernandez, Trent Univ.
  Trent University
  Trent University is a liberal arts and science-oriented institution located along the Otonabee River in Peterborough, Ontario, Canada.The enabling legislation is the Trent University Act, 1962-63. The University was founded through the efforts of a citizens' committee interested in creating a...
  
   A model-based approach to predicting the effects of global warming four degrees and beyond on ecosystem primary productivity, land degradatoin and food security at national scale: Case Study Ethiopia.

• Dr. Helena Kahiluoto, Agrifood Research Finland. Implications of 4+°C global warming on potential of carbon trading for mitigation and food security - analytical framework and an Ethiopian case.

• Dr. Yasuaki Hijioka, National Institute for Environmental Studies. Implications of 4° in Japan. -- Quantitative analysis of sectoral impacts of climate change in Japan using an integrated assessment model, AIM/Impact.

• Mr. Jens Heinke, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research
  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a research institute specialising in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.-References:* USA Today -Further Reading:* Study -See Also:* Climatic Research Unit...
  
  . Implications for Global Water Availability of Extreme Global Warming Scenarios.

• Mr. Robert McSweeney, Atkins Water & Environment, and Univ. of E. Anglia
  University of East Anglia
  The University of East Anglia is a public research university based in Norwich, United Kingdom. It was established in 1963, and is a founder-member of the 1994 Group of research-intensive universities.-History:...
  
  . The implications of a 4° rise in global mean temperature for

• Dr. Humphrey Crick, Natural England
  Natural England
  Natural England is the non-departmental public body of the UK government responsible for ensuring that England's natural environment, including its land, flora and fauna, freshwater and marine environments, geology and soils, are protected and improved...
  
  . Ecosystem-based conservation in a 4+°C world.

• Dr. Elena Parfenova, Forest Institute. Conifer trees of the South Siberia Mountains in a changing climate of XXI Century.

• Dr. Stephan A. Pietsch, BOKU University of Naturalö Resources and Applied Life Sciences. 4+°C: Ecosystem Resilience and Predictability.

• Mr. Przemyslaw Zelazowski, University of Oxford. The influence of variation in climate simulations on the simulated response of tropical forests to a global 4 degrees warming.

• Dr. Matthew Eames, University of Univ. of Exeter
  University of Exeter
  The University of Exeter is a public university in South West England. It belongs to the 1994 Group, an association of 19 of the United Kingdom's smaller research-intensive universities....
  
  . Predicting temperatures within buildings and the heat stress on occupants under substantial climate change.

• Prof. Clive Hamilton, Australian Nat'l Univ.
  Australian National University
  The Australian National University is a teaching and research university located in the Australian capital, Canberra.As of 2009, the ANU employs 3,945 administrative staff who teach approximately 10,000 undergraduates, and 7,500 postgraduate students...
  
   & Yale Univ.
  Yale University
  Yale University is a private, Ivy League university located in New Haven, Connecticut, United States. Founded in 1701 in the Colony of Connecticut, the university is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States...
  
   .

• Mr. Abdeltif El Ouahrani, University Abdelmalek Essaadi. Climate Change and Mediterranean region: vulnerability and opportunities.

• Dr. Gernot Brodnig, The World Bank. A View From the Top: Vulnerability and Adaptation in Mountain Systems.

• Dr. Sally Brown, Univ. of Southampton
  University of Southampton
  The University of Southampton is a British public university located in the city of Southampton, England, a member of the Russell Group. The origins of the university can be dated back to the founding of the Hartley Institution in 1862 by Henry Robertson Hartley. In 1902, the Institution developed...
  
  . Sea level response and impacts to a 1°C to 7°C temperature rise by 2100.

• Mr. Markus Hageman, Ecofys GmbH. The role of sectoral characteristics in designing mechanism for participation of developing countries.

• Dr. Robin Hickman, Oxford University. Backcasting for low carbon transport.

• Dr. Jasper Knight, Univ. of Exeter
  University of Exeter
  The University of Exeter is a public university in South West England. It belongs to the 1994 Group, an association of 19 of the United Kingdom's smaller research-intensive universities....
  
  . Landscape responses to future climate change in glaciated mountains.

• Dr. Katja Frieler, Potsdam Inst. for Climate Impact Research
  Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is a research institute specialising in the fields of global change, climate impact and sustainable development.-References:* USA Today -Further Reading:* Study -See Also:* Climatic Research Unit...
  
  .

2011 Follow up event: "Four Degrees Or More? Australia in a Hot World"

"... explores the unintended consequences of current domestic and international climate policies. It invites us to imagine the social, economic and ecological implications of catastrophic global warming for Australia and its region. The international community has agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Yet the Copenhagen pledges to cut emissions will, if honoured collectively, result in average warming of 4 degrees or more. So what might Australia look like then?"

External links

• Conference programme & downloads

• News coverage of the conference

• Mobile Oxford (MOX) Conference videos (nearly all presentations)