Advanced NFL Stats
Encyclopedia
Advanced NFL Stats is a website dedicated to the analysis of the National Football League
using advanced mathematical and statistical methods. The site's lead author is noted football researcher and analyst Brian Burke. Burke is a regular contributor to the New York Times NFL coverage, the Washington Post's Redskins coverage, and supplies research for other notable publications and writers.
Advanced NFL Stats features a variety of analytical techniques and applications. The site predicts game outcomes and rates teams using a logistic regression
model based on team efficiency statistics. It also features a live in-game win probability
model that estimates the chances either opponent will win a game in progress. Advanced NFL Stats uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions.
Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness, play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of performance (offensive passing, offensive rushing, defensive passing, etc.). Also featured is research on weather factors, team payroll, and the NFL Draft
.
The site has pioneered other analytical concepts such as Air Yards, which is the distance forward of the line of scrimmage that a pass travels. It removes the contribution of Yards After Catch
(YAC) run by a receiver.
Advanced NFL Stats also features a catalog of unique individual player stats. Each player's contribution toward his team's wins, known as Win Probability Added (WPA)
, is available for each season since 2000. Expected Points Added (EPA), success rate (SR), and many other innovative metrics are available.
During the NFL off-season, Burke has posted original research related to other North American professional sports leagues.
National Football League
The National Football League is the highest level of professional American football in the United States, and is considered the top professional American football league in the world. It was formed by eleven teams in 1920 as the American Professional Football Association, with the league changing...
using advanced mathematical and statistical methods. The site's lead author is noted football researcher and analyst Brian Burke. Burke is a regular contributor to the New York Times NFL coverage, the Washington Post's Redskins coverage, and supplies research for other notable publications and writers.
Advanced NFL Stats features a variety of analytical techniques and applications. The site predicts game outcomes and rates teams using a logistic regression
Logistic regression
In statistics, logistic regression is used for prediction of the probability of occurrence of an event by fitting data to a logit function logistic curve. It is a generalized linear model used for binomial regression...
model based on team efficiency statistics. It also features a live in-game win probability
Win probability
Win Probability is a multi-sport statistical analytical tool which measures a team's chances of winning at any point in the game. Win Probability is based on historical analysis of statistics. For example: A football win probability system would take several variables into consideration most...
model that estimates the chances either opponent will win a game in progress. Advanced NFL Stats uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions.
Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness, play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of performance (offensive passing, offensive rushing, defensive passing, etc.). Also featured is research on weather factors, team payroll, and the NFL Draft
NFL Draft
The National Football League Draft is an annual event in which the National Football League teams select eligible college football players and it is their most common source of player recruitment. The basic design of the draft is each team is given a position in the drafting order in reverse order...
.
The site has pioneered other analytical concepts such as Air Yards, which is the distance forward of the line of scrimmage that a pass travels. It removes the contribution of Yards After Catch
Yards after catch
Yards After Catch is the term used in American football for the distance gained by a receiver after catching a pass. Specifically, it is the forward yardage gained from the spot of the reception until the receiver is downed, runs out of bounds, scores, or loses the ball...
(YAC) run by a receiver.
Advanced NFL Stats also features a catalog of unique individual player stats. Each player's contribution toward his team's wins, known as Win Probability Added (WPA)
Win Probability Added
Win probability added is a sport statistic which attempts to measure a player's contribution to a win by figuring the factor by which each specific play made by that player has altered the outcome of a game...
, is available for each season since 2000. Expected Points Added (EPA), success rate (SR), and many other innovative metrics are available.
During the NFL off-season, Burke has posted original research related to other North American professional sports leagues.