After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order
Encyclopedia
After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order (French: Après L'Empire: essai sur la décomposition du système américain) is a 2001 book by Emmanuel Todd
. Todd predicts the fall of the United States
as the sole superpower
.
Todd examines the fundamental weaknesses of the US to conclude that, contrary to American conventional wisdom
, America is fast losing its grip on the world stage in economic, military and ideological terms.
, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality
rates. In the late 1970s Todd was widely pronounced "anti-communist", just as, following the publication of "After the Empire", he has been attacked as "anti-American". He challenges these labels and describes himself as a historian and anthropologist first, and it was his concern as a historian rather than political passion that motivated him to write After the Empire. In late 2002 he believed that the world was about to repeat the same mistake that it had made in regards to the Soviet Union during the 1970s—misinterpreting an expansion in US military activity as a sign of its increasing power, when in fact this aggression masks a decline.
—overextended with excessive arms spending, inequality and disgruntlement at home. To keep the rest of the world inline, and prevent its creditors calling in their debts, all America needs to do then was to wield a big stick.
"The real America is too weak to take on anyone except military midgets," Todd states. This is why there is such hostility to such states as North Korea
, Cuba
, and Iraq
, an underdeveloped country of 24 million exhausted by a decade of sanctions. Such "conflicts that represent little or no military risk" allowing a US presence throughout the world. Further, the "theatrical media coverage...must not blind us to a fundamental reality: the size of the opponent chosen by the US is the true indicator of its current power". Todd argues that America would be incapable of challenging a more powerful country.
Todd argues that the "only one threat to global stability hangs over the world today—the United States itself, which was once a protector and is now a predator."
Todd argues the risk to the United States is that its clumsy tactics could backfire by provoking a geostrategic realignment and alliance in Europe and Asia. In the future the real power will rest with Europe. Todd suggests that Eurasia possesses the majority of global wealth and is able to work with other countries because it shares a universalist ethic that respects the rest of the world, including Arab and Muslim countries. Europe will evolve into a united force and its protected industrial base will allow it to rapidly reestablish its military might. Over time, Europe's and Russia's cultural friendship will strengthen and the Cold War-era ties which bind the United States together with Europe will be severed because of the vast divide separating "European and American civilizations," which Todd calls "the emancipation of Europe". If Europe, Russia and Japan
draw closer as a result of the "drunken sailor" United States, then Washington will have achieved exactly the opposite of what it sought.
Emmanuel Todd
Emmanuel Todd is a French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies , in Paris...
. Todd predicts the fall of the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
as the sole superpower
Superpower
A superpower is a state with a dominant position in the international system which has the ability to influence events and its own interests and project power on a worldwide scale to protect those interests...
.
Todd examines the fundamental weaknesses of the US to conclude that, contrary to American conventional wisdom
Conventional wisdom
Conventional wisdom is a term used to describe ideas or explanations that are generally accepted as true by the public or by experts in a field. Such ideas or explanations, though widely held, are unexamined. Unqualified societal discourse preserves the status quo. It codifies existing social...
, America is fast losing its grip on the world stage in economic, military and ideological terms.
1976 prediction of Soviet collapse
Todd attracted attention in 1976 when he predicted, at 25 years old, the fall of the Soviet UnionPredictions of Soviet collapse
There were people who predicted that the Soviet Union would eventually be dissolved before the process of dissolution began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989....
, based on indicators such as increasing infant mortality
Infant mortality
Infant mortality is defined as the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births. Traditionally, the most common cause worldwide was dehydration from diarrhea. However, the spreading information about Oral Re-hydration Solution to mothers around the world has decreased the rate of children dying...
rates. In the late 1970s Todd was widely pronounced "anti-communist", just as, following the publication of "After the Empire", he has been attacked as "anti-American". He challenges these labels and describes himself as a historian and anthropologist first, and it was his concern as a historian rather than political passion that motivated him to write After the Empire. In late 2002 he believed that the world was about to repeat the same mistake that it had made in regards to the Soviet Union during the 1970s—misinterpreting an expansion in US military activity as a sign of its increasing power, when in fact this aggression masks a decline.
Post Cold War geopolitical climate
Todd writes that the United States became an empire not by strategy but by accident, following the sudden collapse of its main adversary, the Soviet Union. With the globalization of investment, it then indulged in the luxury of conspicuous consumption using incoming capital while going deeper and deeper into debt. In reality America is like a crumbling Roman empireRoman Empire
The Roman Empire was the post-Republican period of the ancient Roman civilization, characterised by an autocratic form of government and large territorial holdings in Europe and around the Mediterranean....
—overextended with excessive arms spending, inequality and disgruntlement at home. To keep the rest of the world inline, and prevent its creditors calling in their debts, all America needs to do then was to wield a big stick.
"The real America is too weak to take on anyone except military midgets," Todd states. This is why there is such hostility to such states as North Korea
North Korea
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea , , is a country in East Asia, occupying the northern half of the Korean Peninsula. Its capital and largest city is Pyongyang. The Korean Demilitarized Zone serves as the buffer zone between North Korea and South Korea...
, Cuba
Cuba
The Republic of Cuba is an island nation in the Caribbean. The nation of Cuba consists of the main island of Cuba, the Isla de la Juventud, and several archipelagos. Havana is the largest city in Cuba and the country's capital. Santiago de Cuba is the second largest city...
, and Iraq
Iraq
Iraq ; officially the Republic of Iraq is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert....
, an underdeveloped country of 24 million exhausted by a decade of sanctions. Such "conflicts that represent little or no military risk" allowing a US presence throughout the world. Further, the "theatrical media coverage...must not blind us to a fundamental reality: the size of the opponent chosen by the US is the true indicator of its current power". Todd argues that America would be incapable of challenging a more powerful country.
Todd argues that the "only one threat to global stability hangs over the world today—the United States itself, which was once a protector and is now a predator."
Predictions
Todd is above all a demographer, and he bases much of his opinion on statistical elements. Therefore Todd notes some disturbing American trends, such as rising stratification based on educational credentials, and the "obsolescence of unreformable political institutions." Increasingly, the rest of the world is producing so that America can consume.Todd argues the risk to the United States is that its clumsy tactics could backfire by provoking a geostrategic realignment and alliance in Europe and Asia. In the future the real power will rest with Europe. Todd suggests that Eurasia possesses the majority of global wealth and is able to work with other countries because it shares a universalist ethic that respects the rest of the world, including Arab and Muslim countries. Europe will evolve into a united force and its protected industrial base will allow it to rapidly reestablish its military might. Over time, Europe's and Russia's cultural friendship will strengthen and the Cold War-era ties which bind the United States together with Europe will be severed because of the vast divide separating "European and American civilizations," which Todd calls "the emancipation of Europe". If Europe, Russia and Japan
Japan
Japan is an island nation in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of the Sea of Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south...
draw closer as a result of the "drunken sailor" United States, then Washington will have achieved exactly the opposite of what it sought.
Solutions
Todd believes the U.S. should return to its nineteenth-century civilian, republican roots, and that Europe should also.Reviews
- "Emmanuel Todd's After the Empire has been a bestseller in FranceFranceThe French Republic , The French Republic , The French Republic , (commonly known as France , is a unitary semi-presidential republic in Western Europe with several overseas territories and islands located on other continents and in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. Metropolitan France...
for most of the last year—which should tell you a lot about the book even before you read the first page. In substance and rune, Todd's writing bears a strong resemblance to that of conservative intellectuals, like Robert KaganRobert KaganRobert Kagan is an American historian and foreign policy commentator.-Early life and education:Kagan graduated from Yale University in 1980 where he was tapped by Skull and Bones, studied history, and founded the Yale Political Monthly. He later earned an MPP from the John F...
, who proclaim the inevitability of American dominance. But Todd's thesis is the exact opposite of the neocons'...Like the neocons' worldview, Todd's theory combines a wishful vision of the future and nationalistic triumphalism in a way that sidesteps the facts...We and our allies are, in a word, interdependent. That may sound dull and "interdependence" won't sell many books. But unlike the theories of Todd and the neocons, it happens to be true." - "I would recommend this extraordinary book to everyone troubled by US neo-imperialism. It asks why "America is now commonly perceived as a narcissistic, warmongering bully. How did a country that until recently played an essential role in building international order suddenly become a symbol of global disorder?"...I doubt that anyone will sign up for all of Emmanuel Todd's analysis, but this is a brave and challenging book which contains a great deal of truth."
- "After the Empire is silly, mean-spirited, and anti-Semitic bile, bigoted to a degree that borders on racist condescension. It is poorly written and foolishly argued. When Todd thinks he has data supporting an argument, he uses them; when he wants to extend the argument to an area where there are inadequate data, he offers sweeping intuitions..."