Anticipatory democracy
Encyclopedia
Anticipatory democracy is a theory of civics
relying on democratic decision making
that takes into account predictions of future events
that have some credibility with the electorate. The phrase was apparently coined by Alvin Toffler
in his book Future Shock
and was expanded on in the 1978 book Constipation Democracy, edited by Clement Bezold.
Other well-known advocates of the anticipatory approach include Newt Gingrich
, Heidi Toffler, K. Eric Drexler
, and Robin Hanson
. They all advocate approaches where the public, not just experts, participate in this "anticipation".
To do this anticipation, prediction market
s and other risk management
techniques may be embedded into bureaucracies and agencies to overcome the groupthink
inherent in such bodies, which makes it quite difficult for them to anticipate uncomfortable future events. The FutureMAP program of the Information Awareness Office
program of the United States government proposed a prediction market prior to its cancellation on July 29, 2003.
outcomes of any given action. However it usually relies more on far less fragile means, and less on compared measures and quantities.
An alternative, deliberative democracy
, may combine with either the anticipatory or the bioregional model. It relies less on formal models and a market system
for betting on future events, and more on discussion.
Deliberative, anticipatory and bioregional approaches can all be considered variants of participatory democracy
with different thresholds of ease of participation, burden of proof, concern for non-human life or future generations, and reflection of participants' tolerances versus preferences or ideals of truth
. Sometimes a deliberative model is described as more "left"
and an anticipatory model as more "right"
. Those who wish to avoid this debate and see merits to both approaches, e.g. Greens
, usually prefer the generic term "participatory democracy
". This term has become fundamental to green politics
itself.
Other terms which likewise have more specific associations with advocates or methods include: grassroots democracy
, semi-direct democracy, consensus democracy
. See outlines in the articles on democracy
and on forms of government.
Civics
Civics is the study of rights and duties of citizenship. In other words, it is the study of government with attention to the role of citizens ― as opposed to external factors ― in the operation and oversight of government....
relying on democratic decision making
Decision making
Decision making can be regarded as the mental processes resulting in the selection of a course of action among several alternative scenarios. Every decision making process produces a final choice. The output can be an action or an opinion of choice.- Overview :Human performance in decision terms...
that takes into account predictions of future events
Futurology
Futures studies is the study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews and myths that underlie them. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science. In general, it can be considered as a branch under the more general scope of the field of...
that have some credibility with the electorate. The phrase was apparently coined by Alvin Toffler
Alvin Toffler
Alvin Toffler is an American writer and futurist, known for his works discussing the digital revolution, communication revolution, corporate revolution and technological singularity....
in his book Future Shock
Future Shock
Future Shock is a book written by the futurist Alvin Toffler in 1970. In the book, Toffler defines the term "future shock" as a certain psychological state of individuals and entire societies. His shortest definition for the term is a personal perception of "too much change in too short a period of...
and was expanded on in the 1978 book Constipation Democracy, edited by Clement Bezold.
Other well-known advocates of the anticipatory approach include Newt Gingrich
Newt Gingrich
Newton Leroy "Newt" Gingrich is a U.S. Republican Party politician who served as the House Minority Whip from 1989 to 1995 and as the 58th Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1995 to 1999....
, Heidi Toffler, K. Eric Drexler
K. Eric Drexler
Dr. Kim Eric Drexler is an American engineer best known for popularizing the potential of molecular nanotechnology , from the 1970s and 1980s.His 1991 doctoral thesis at MIT was revised and published as...
, and Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson
Robin D. Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known as an expert on idea futures, markets and was involved in the creation of the Foresight Exchange and DARPA's FutureMAP...
. They all advocate approaches where the public, not just experts, participate in this "anticipation".
To do this anticipation, prediction market
Prediction market
Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions...
s and other risk management
Risk management
Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities...
techniques may be embedded into bureaucracies and agencies to overcome the groupthink
Groupthink
Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within groups of people. It is the mode of thinking that happens when the desire for harmony in a decision-making group overrides a realistic appraisal of alternatives. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without...
inherent in such bodies, which makes it quite difficult for them to anticipate uncomfortable future events. The FutureMAP program of the Information Awareness Office
Information Awareness Office
The Information Awareness Office was established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency in January 2002 to bring together several DARPA projects focused on applying surveillance and information technology to track and monitor terrorists and other asymmetric threats to national security,...
program of the United States government proposed a prediction market prior to its cancellation on July 29, 2003.
Variants
Bioregional democracy can appear as a variant of anticipatory democracy in that it anticipates (using a similar scientific process) the ecological healthEcological health
Ecological health or ecological integrity or ecological damage are the symptoms of an ecosystem's pending loss of carrying capacity, its ability to perform ecological services, or a pending ecocide, due to cumulative causes such as pollution. it can also be defined as farming so as to minimize the...
outcomes of any given action. However it usually relies more on far less fragile means, and less on compared measures and quantities.
An alternative, deliberative democracy
Deliberative democracy
Deliberative democracy is a form of democracy in which public deliberation is central to legitimate lawmaking. It adopts elements of both consensus decision-making and majority rule. Deliberative democracy differs from traditional democratic theory in that authentic deliberation, not mere...
, may combine with either the anticipatory or the bioregional model. It relies less on formal models and a market system
Market system
A market system is any systematic process enabling many market players to bid and ask: helping bidders and sellers interact and make deals. It is not just the price mechanism but the entire system of regulation, qualification, credentials, reputations and clearing that surrounds that mechanism and...
for betting on future events, and more on discussion.
Deliberative, anticipatory and bioregional approaches can all be considered variants of participatory democracy
Participatory democracy
Participatory Democracy, also known as Deliberative Democracy, Direct Democracy and Real Democracy , is a process where political decisions are made directly by regular people...
with different thresholds of ease of participation, burden of proof, concern for non-human life or future generations, and reflection of participants' tolerances versus preferences or ideals of truth
Truth
Truth has a variety of meanings, such as the state of being in accord with fact or reality. It can also mean having fidelity to an original or to a standard or ideal. In a common usage, it also means constancy or sincerity in action or character...
. Sometimes a deliberative model is described as more "left"
Left-wing politics
In politics, Left, left-wing and leftist generally refer to support for social change to create a more egalitarian society...
and an anticipatory model as more "right"
Right-wing politics
In politics, Right, right-wing and rightist generally refer to support for a hierarchical society justified on the basis of an appeal to natural law or tradition. To varying degrees, the Right rejects the egalitarian objectives of left-wing politics, claiming that the imposition of equality is...
. Those who wish to avoid this debate and see merits to both approaches, e.g. Greens
Green politics
Green politics is a political ideology that aims for the creation of an ecologically sustainable society rooted in environmentalism, social liberalism, and grassroots democracy...
, usually prefer the generic term "participatory democracy
Participatory democracy
Participatory Democracy, also known as Deliberative Democracy, Direct Democracy and Real Democracy , is a process where political decisions are made directly by regular people...
". This term has become fundamental to green politics
Green politics
Green politics is a political ideology that aims for the creation of an ecologically sustainable society rooted in environmentalism, social liberalism, and grassroots democracy...
itself.
Other terms which likewise have more specific associations with advocates or methods include: grassroots democracy
Grassroots democracy
Grassroots democracy is a tendency towards designing political processes where as much decision-making authority as practical is shifted to the organization's lowest geographic level of organization: principle of subsidiarity....
, semi-direct democracy, consensus democracy
Consensus democracy
Consensus democracy is the application of consensus decision-making to the process of legislation in a democracy. It is characterised by a decision-making structure which involves and takes into account as broad a range of opinions as possible, as opposed to systems where minority opinions can...
. See outlines in the articles on democracy
Democracy
Democracy is generally defined as a form of government in which all adult citizens have an equal say in the decisions that affect their lives. Ideally, this includes equal participation in the proposal, development and passage of legislation into law...
and on forms of government.