Charles F. Manski
Encyclopedia
Charles Frederick Manski, Professor of Economics
at Northwestern University
, is an econometrician in the realm of Rational choice theory
, an innovator in the arena of identification. Manski’s research spans econometrics
, judgement and decision
, and the analysis of social policy
(such as work on "School choice
"). A specialist in prediction
and decision
, he is known within the economics field for landmark work on “partial identification,” identification of discrete
choice models, and identification of social interactions. He has also performed substantial empirical research on measurement of expectations in surveys.
(1973–80), moving on to the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
(1979–83), and joining the faculty of the University of Wisconsin–Madison
(U.W., 1983–98). While at the U.W., Manski served as Director of the Institute for Research on Poverty (1988–91) and as Chair of the Board of Overseers of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1994–98). Since 1997 Manski has been Board of Trustees Professor in Economics at Northwestern University
.http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~cfm754/charles_manski_bio.pdf
Manski has served as a member of the National Research Council
's (NRC) Committee on National Statistics (1996–2000), and the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (1992–98). At the NRC, he has been Chair of the Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs (1998–2001) and a member of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications (2004–2007) and the Committee on Law and Justice (2009-). Manski is an elected fellow of the Econometric Society
, The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science
.http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~cfm754/charles_manski_bio.pdf In 2009, Manski was elected to the National Academy of Sciences
; he is one of 2 economists elected to the body in 2009, and one of about 60 economists elected up to that point.
As of 2007 Manski's research interests focus primarily on the field of formation of social policy with partial knowledge of treatment response. Economists and doctors alike share a common interest in gauging the effect of various "treatments" delivered to "patients." http://www.northwestern.edu/ipr/people/manski.html Since research on treatment response rarely provides sufficient information to determine effectiveness, how should the available evidence be employed in choosing future treatments?
, to domestic drug treatment centers, have all been inconclusive, if the programs have been evaluated at all: “The existing drug-use monitoring systems are strikingly inadequate to support the full range of policy decisions that the nation must make...It is unconscionable for this country to continue to carry out a public policy of this magnitude and cost without any way of knowing whether and to what extent it is having the desired effect.” The study, though not ignored by the press, was initially ignored by policymakers, leading Manski to conclude, as one observer noted, that "the drug war has no interest in its own results."
More recently, in 2004, Manski challenged the theoretical basis for statements in the popular media "that markets can predict an election better than polls and experts can."
Economics
Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Ancient Greek from + , hence "rules of the house"...
at Northwestern University
Northwestern University
Northwestern University is a private research university in Evanston and Chicago, Illinois, USA. Northwestern has eleven undergraduate, graduate, and professional schools offering 124 undergraduate degrees and 145 graduate and professional degrees....
, is an econometrician in the realm of Rational choice theory
Rational choice theory
Rational choice theory, also known as choice theory or rational action theory, is a framework for understanding and often formally modeling social and economic behavior. It is the main theoretical paradigm in the currently-dominant school of microeconomics...
, an innovator in the arena of identification. Manski’s research spans econometrics
Econometrics
Econometrics has been defined as "the application of mathematics and statistical methods to economic data" and described as the branch of economics "that aims to give empirical content to economic relations." More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on...
, judgement and decision
Decision
A decision is the selection between possible actions.A choice is the selection between two or more objects.The term decision may refer to:* Judgment , as the outcome of a legal case...
, and the analysis of social policy
Social policy
Social policy primarily refers to guidelines, principles, legislation and activities that affect the living conditions conducive to human welfare. Thus, social policy is that part of public policy that has to do with social issues...
(such as work on "School choice
School choice
School choice is a term used to describe a wide array of programs aimed at giving families the opportunity to choose the school their children will attend. As a matter of form, school choice does not give preference to one form of schooling or another, rather manifests itself whenever a student...
"). A specialist in prediction
Prediction
A prediction or forecast is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge...
and decision
Decision
A decision is the selection between possible actions.A choice is the selection between two or more objects.The term decision may refer to:* Judgment , as the outcome of a legal case...
, he is known within the economics field for landmark work on “partial identification,” identification of discrete
Discrete
Discrete in science is the opposite of continuous: something that is separate; distinct; individual.Discrete may refer to:*Discrete particle or quantum in physics, for example in quantum theory...
choice models, and identification of social interactions. He has also performed substantial empirical research on measurement of expectations in surveys.
Academic career
Born in 1948, Charles Manski received his B.S. and Ph.D. in economics from MIT in 1970 and 1973. He first taught at Carnegie Mellon UniversityCarnegie Mellon University
Carnegie Mellon University is a private research university in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States....
(1973–80), moving on to the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem ; ; abbreviated HUJI) is Israel's second-oldest university, after the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology. The Hebrew University has three campuses in Jerusalem and one in Rehovot. The world's largest Jewish studies library is located on its Edmond J...
(1979–83), and joining the faculty of the University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison
The University of Wisconsin–Madison is a public research university located in Madison, Wisconsin, United States. Founded in 1848, UW–Madison is the flagship campus of the University of Wisconsin System. It became a land-grant institution in 1866...
(U.W., 1983–98). While at the U.W., Manski served as Director of the Institute for Research on Poverty (1988–91) and as Chair of the Board of Overseers of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1994–98). Since 1997 Manski has been Board of Trustees Professor in Economics at Northwestern University
Northwestern University
Northwestern University is a private research university in Evanston and Chicago, Illinois, USA. Northwestern has eleven undergraduate, graduate, and professional schools offering 124 undergraduate degrees and 145 graduate and professional degrees....
.http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~cfm754/charles_manski_bio.pdf
Manski has served as a member of the National Research Council
United States National Research Council
The National Research Council of the USA is the working arm of the United States National Academies, carrying out most of the studies done in their names.The National Academies include:* National Academy of Sciences...
's (NRC) Committee on National Statistics (1996–2000), and the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (1992–98). At the NRC, he has been Chair of the Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs (1998–2001) and a member of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and their Applications (2004–2007) and the Committee on Law and Justice (2009-). Manski is an elected fellow of the Econometric Society
Econometric Society
The Econometric Society is an international society for the advancement of economic theory in its relation with statistics and mathematics. It was founded on December 29, 1930 at the Stalton Hotel in Cleveland, Ohio....
, The American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Association for the Advancement of Science
The American Association for the Advancement of Science is an international non-profit organization with the stated goals of promoting cooperation among scientists, defending scientific freedom, encouraging scientific responsibility, and supporting scientific education and science outreach for the...
.http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~cfm754/charles_manski_bio.pdf In 2009, Manski was elected to the National Academy of Sciences
United States National Academy of Sciences
The National Academy of Sciences is a corporation in the United States whose members serve pro bono as "advisers to the nation on science, engineering, and medicine." As a national academy, new members of the organization are elected annually by current members, based on their distinguished and...
; he is one of 2 economists elected to the body in 2009, and one of about 60 economists elected up to that point.
As of 2007 Manski's research interests focus primarily on the field of formation of social policy with partial knowledge of treatment response. Economists and doctors alike share a common interest in gauging the effect of various "treatments" delivered to "patients." http://www.northwestern.edu/ipr/people/manski.html Since research on treatment response rarely provides sufficient information to determine effectiveness, how should the available evidence be employed in choosing future treatments?
Research findings in the media
The NRC's Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs found that existing studies on efforts to address drug usage and smuggling, from U.S. military operations to eradicate coca fields in ColombiaColombia
Colombia, officially the Republic of Colombia , is a unitary constitutional republic comprising thirty-two departments. The country is located in northwestern South America, bordered to the east by Venezuela and Brazil; to the south by Ecuador and Peru; to the north by the Caribbean Sea; to the...
, to domestic drug treatment centers, have all been inconclusive, if the programs have been evaluated at all: “The existing drug-use monitoring systems are strikingly inadequate to support the full range of policy decisions that the nation must make...It is unconscionable for this country to continue to carry out a public policy of this magnitude and cost without any way of knowing whether and to what extent it is having the desired effect.” The study, though not ignored by the press, was initially ignored by policymakers, leading Manski to conclude, as one observer noted, that "the drug war has no interest in its own results."
More recently, in 2004, Manski challenged the theoretical basis for statements in the popular media "that markets can predict an election better than polls and experts can."
Sources
- "No Data on Effectiveness;" Drug Policy News, Vol. 2 No. 1, Spring/Summer 2001
- Stix, Gary. "Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls"; Scientific American, February 2008
- Institute for Policy Research Bio
- Northwestern Bio
- Website on drug policy
- C. Manski, Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005.
- C. Manski, “Diversified Treatment under Ambiguity,” International Economic Review, 2009, forthoming.
- C. Manski, Partial Identification of Probability Distributions, New York: Springer-Verlag, 2003.
- C. Manski, Identification for Prediction and Decision: Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 2007.
- C. Manski, “Maximum Score Estimation of the Stochastic Utility Model of Choice,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1975, pp. 205–228.
- C. Manski, “Identification of Binary Response Models,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 83, No. 403, 1988, pp. 729–738.
- C. Manski, “Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 60, No. 3, 1993, pp. 531–542.
- C. Manski, “Measuring Expectations,” Econometrica, Vol. 72, No. 5, 2004, pp. 1329–1376.
- Manski, Charles F. "Why Polls Are Fickle;" The New York Times. Op-Ed 4 [2000]
- Manski webpage