Cloud forcing
Encyclopedia
Cloud forcing is, in meteorology
, the difference between the radiation budget components for average cloud
conditions and cloud-free conditions. Much of the interest in cloud forcing relates to its role as a feedback
process in the present period of global warming
.
All global climate model
s used for climate change projections include the effects of water vapor
and cloud forcing. The models include the effects of clouds on both incoming (solar) and emitted (terrestrial) radiation.
Clouds increase the global reflection of solar radiation
from 15% to 30%, reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth by about 44 W/m². This cooling is offset somewhat by the greenhouse effect
of clouds which reduces the outgoing longwave radiation
by about 31 W/m². Thus the net cloud forcing of the radiation budget is a loss of about 13 W/m². If the clouds were removed with all else remaining the same, the Earth
would gain this last amount in net radiation and begin to warm up. These numbers should not be confused with the usual radiative forcing
concept, which is for the change in forcing related to climate change
.
Without the inclusion of clouds, water vapor alone contributes 36% to 70% of the greenhouse effect on Earth. When water vapor and clouds are considered together, the contribution is 66% to 85%. The ranges come about because there are two ways to compute the influence of water vapor and clouds: the lower bounds are the reduction in the greenhouse effect if water vapor and clouds are removed from the atmosphere leaving all other greenhouse gases unchanged, while the upper bounds are the greenhouse effect introduced if water vapor and clouds are added to an atmosphere with no other greenhouse gases. The two values differ because of overlap in the absorption and emission by the various greenhouse gases. Trapping of the long-wave radiation due to the presence of clouds reduces the radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases compared to the clear-sky forcing. However, the magnitude of the effect due to clouds varies for different greenhouse gases. Relative to clear skies
, clouds reduce the global mean radiative forcing due to CO2
by about 15%, that due to CH4
and N2O
by about 20%, and that due to the halocarbon
s by up to 30%.
Clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in future projections of climate change by global climate models, owing to the physical complexity of cloud processes and the small scale of individual clouds relative to the size of the model computational grid.
Meteorology
Meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere. Studies in the field stretch back millennia, though significant progress in meteorology did not occur until the 18th century. The 19th century saw breakthroughs occur after observing networks developed across several countries...
, the difference between the radiation budget components for average cloud
Cloud
A cloud is a visible mass of liquid droplets or frozen crystals made of water and/or various chemicals suspended in the atmosphere above the surface of a planetary body. They are also known as aerosols. Clouds in Earth's atmosphere are studied in the cloud physics branch of meteorology...
conditions and cloud-free conditions. Much of the interest in cloud forcing relates to its role as a feedback
Feedback
Feedback describes the situation when output from an event or phenomenon in the past will influence an occurrence or occurrences of the same Feedback describes the situation when output from (or information about the result of) an event or phenomenon in the past will influence an occurrence or...
process in the present period of global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
.
All global climate model
Global climate model
A General Circulation Model is a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean and based on the Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources . These equations are the basis for complex computer programs commonly...
s used for climate change projections include the effects of water vapor
Water vapor
Water vapor or water vapour , also aqueous vapor, is the gas phase of water. It is one state of water within the hydrosphere. Water vapor can be produced from the evaporation or boiling of liquid water or from the sublimation of ice. Under typical atmospheric conditions, water vapor is continuously...
and cloud forcing. The models include the effects of clouds on both incoming (solar) and emitted (terrestrial) radiation.
Clouds increase the global reflection of solar radiation
Albedo
Albedo , or reflection coefficient, is the diffuse reflectivity or reflecting power of a surface. It is defined as the ratio of reflected radiation from the surface to incident radiation upon it...
from 15% to 30%, reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth by about 44 W/m². This cooling is offset somewhat by the greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower atmosphere...
of clouds which reduces the outgoing longwave radiation
Outgoing longwave radiation
Outgoing Longwave Radiation is the energy leaving the earth as infrared radiation at low energy. OLR is a critical component of the Earth’s radiation budget and represents the total radiation going to space emitted by the atmosphere...
by about 31 W/m². Thus the net cloud forcing of the radiation budget is a loss of about 13 W/m². If the clouds were removed with all else remaining the same, the Earth
Earth
Earth is the third planet from the Sun, and the densest and fifth-largest of the eight planets in the Solar System. It is also the largest of the Solar System's four terrestrial planets...
would gain this last amount in net radiation and begin to warm up. These numbers should not be confused with the usual radiative forcing
Radiative forcing
In climate science, radiative forcing is generally defined as the change in net irradiance between different layers of the atmosphere. Typically, radiative forcing is quantified at the tropopause in units of watts per square meter. A positive forcing tends to warm the system, while a negative...
concept, which is for the change in forcing related to climate change
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
.
Without the inclusion of clouds, water vapor alone contributes 36% to 70% of the greenhouse effect on Earth. When water vapor and clouds are considered together, the contribution is 66% to 85%. The ranges come about because there are two ways to compute the influence of water vapor and clouds: the lower bounds are the reduction in the greenhouse effect if water vapor and clouds are removed from the atmosphere leaving all other greenhouse gases unchanged, while the upper bounds are the greenhouse effect introduced if water vapor and clouds are added to an atmosphere with no other greenhouse gases. The two values differ because of overlap in the absorption and emission by the various greenhouse gases. Trapping of the long-wave radiation due to the presence of clouds reduces the radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases compared to the clear-sky forcing. However, the magnitude of the effect due to clouds varies for different greenhouse gases. Relative to clear skies
Sky
The sky is the part of the atmosphere or outer space visible from the surface of any astronomical object. It is difficult to define precisely for several reasons. During daylight, the sky of Earth has the appearance of a pale blue surface because the air scatters the sunlight. The sky is sometimes...
, clouds reduce the global mean radiative forcing due to CO2
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide is a naturally occurring chemical compound composed of two oxygen atoms covalently bonded to a single carbon atom...
by about 15%, that due to CH4
Methane
Methane is a chemical compound with the chemical formula . It is the simplest alkane, the principal component of natural gas, and probably the most abundant organic compound on earth. The relative abundance of methane makes it an attractive fuel...
and N2O
Nitrous oxide
Nitrous oxide, commonly known as laughing gas or sweet air, is a chemical compound with the formula . It is an oxide of nitrogen. At room temperature, it is a colorless non-flammable gas, with a slightly sweet odor and taste. It is used in surgery and dentistry for its anesthetic and analgesic...
by about 20%, and that due to the halocarbon
Halocarbon
Halocarbon compounds are chemicals in which one or more carbon atoms are linked by covalent bonds with one or more halogen atoms resulting in the formation of organofluorine compounds, organochlorine compounds, organobromine compounds, and organoiodine compounds...
s by up to 30%.
Clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in future projections of climate change by global climate models, owing to the physical complexity of cloud processes and the small scale of individual clouds relative to the size of the model computational grid.