Coattail effect
Encyclopedia
The coattail effect is the tendency for a popular political party leader to attract votes for other candidates of the same party in an election. For example, in the United States, the party of a victorious presidential
candidate will often win many seats in Congress
as well; these congressmen are voted into office “on the coattails” of the president.
This theory is prevalent at all levels of government. A popular statewide candidate for governor or senator can attract support for down ballot races of their party as well.
This is prevalent in the United Kingdom
especially in a general election
. People have a tendency to vote on the basis of a political party instead of the MP
for their area.
In New Zealand where a Mixed Member Proportional electoral system is in place, minor political parties can have a huge say over election results. There have been cases where party leaders from the major parties have endorsed politicians from minor parties. This is so that the minor party will be able to to gain enough seats to get into parliament and therefore be able to pledge their support behind the major party which results in the major party being able to form a government with the assistance of the minor party. This has been an key issue in New Zealand politics particularly in the 2011 Election Campaign
and in the Epsom electorate.
This also refers to the phenomenon that members of the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives are more likely to be voted for on a year of the presidential election than a midterm.
The "coattail effect" has also been used to derogatorily describe the effect of Group Representation Constituencies
(GRCs) in Singapore, where candidates for Parliament run on a party slate of 3 to 6 candidates. This allows weak candidates to get elected "riding on the coattails" of strong candidates on their slate.
In modern times voting machines have replaced the party-column ballot with the office-column ballot: candidates are grouped by office rather than party. Often there is no way to cast a party-line vote, and each office must be voted on separately. The proportion of voters choosing House and Presidential candidates of different parties increased from 13 percent in 1952 to more than 40 percent in the elections of 1972, 1980, and 1988. Consequently, Presidential coattails have been virtually eliminated in most elections, and a number of Presidents—including Richard Nixon
, Ronald Reagan
, and George Bush
—have begun their terms with one or both chambers of Congress controlled by the opposition party.
Presidents may suffer from a “reverse coattail” effect, in which more votes are cast for their party's candidates for the House or Senate than are cast for them. In 1976, for example, Jimmy Carter
won the White House and obtained a total of 40,828,587 votes, but Democratic candidates for the House that year received 41,749,411 votes. In 1992 almost all Democrats elected to Congress won more votes in their congressional districts than the party's Presidential candidate, Bill Clinton
.
There is also the “negative coattail” effect, in which an unpopular Presidential candidate may hurt candidates on the party's ticket running for lower offices. Barry Goldwater's poor showing in the Presidential election of 1964 led to the defeat of dozens of Republicans in the House of Representatives, leaving President Lyndon Johnson a large Democratic majority to pass his programs.
Singapore introduced the GRC system in 1988, where candidates for Parliament run and are elected on a slate of 3 to 6 candidates in some constituencies, with a minimum of one minority candidate on each slate. The purported aim was to ensure minority representation in Parliament. However, it resulted in a "coattail effect" where unpopular and even unknown candidates are elected because they ran together with popular candidates (usually Ministers) on the same slate.
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
candidate will often win many seats in Congress
United States Congress
The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Congress meets in the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C....
as well; these congressmen are voted into office “on the coattails” of the president.
This theory is prevalent at all levels of government. A popular statewide candidate for governor or senator can attract support for down ballot races of their party as well.
This is prevalent in the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
especially in a general election
General election
In a parliamentary political system, a general election is an election in which all or most members of a given political body are chosen. The term is usually used to refer to elections held for a nation's primary legislative body, as distinguished from by-elections and local elections.The term...
. People have a tendency to vote on the basis of a political party instead of the MP
Member of Parliament
A Member of Parliament is a representative of the voters to a :parliament. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, the term applies specifically to members of the lower house, as upper houses often have a different title, such as senate, and thus also have different titles for its members,...
for their area.
In New Zealand where a Mixed Member Proportional electoral system is in place, minor political parties can have a huge say over election results. There have been cases where party leaders from the major parties have endorsed politicians from minor parties. This is so that the minor party will be able to to gain enough seats to get into parliament and therefore be able to pledge their support behind the major party which results in the major party being able to form a government with the assistance of the minor party. This has been an key issue in New Zealand politics particularly in the 2011 Election Campaign
New Zealand general election, 2011
The 2011 New Zealand general election on Saturday 26 November 2011 determined the membership of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.One hundred and twenty-one MPs were elected to the New Zealand House of Representatives, 70 from single-member electorates, including one overhang seat, and 51 from party...
and in the Epsom electorate.
Epsom (New Zealand electorate)
Epsom is a New Zealand Parliamentary electorate, returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives. The current MP for Epsom is Rodney Hide MP of the ACT Party. He has held this position since 2005.-Population centres:...
This also refers to the phenomenon that members of the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives are more likely to be voted for on a year of the presidential election than a midterm.
The "coattail effect" has also been used to derogatorily describe the effect of Group Representation Constituencies
Group Representation Constituency
A Group Representation Constituency is a type of electoral division or constituency in Singapore, the Members of Parliament of which are voted into Parliament as a group...
(GRCs) in Singapore, where candidates for Parliament run on a party slate of 3 to 6 candidates. This allows weak candidates to get elected "riding on the coattails" of strong candidates on their slate.
Presidential Coattails
Presidential coattails is a term that refers to the ability of a Presidential candidate to bring out supporters who then vote for his party's candidates for other offices. In effect, the other candidates are said to ride on his coattails. In the 19th century voters cast their ballots by taking a ticket provided by a party worker and putting it in the ballot box. The party-column ballot listed all candidates of the party in a single column and allowed the voter to mark off the party box at the top, which encouraged straight-party voting and the coattails effect. Straight-party voting was the norm, and winners in Presidential elections often had long coattails. They almost always began their term with majorities in the House and Senate.In modern times voting machines have replaced the party-column ballot with the office-column ballot: candidates are grouped by office rather than party. Often there is no way to cast a party-line vote, and each office must be voted on separately. The proportion of voters choosing House and Presidential candidates of different parties increased from 13 percent in 1952 to more than 40 percent in the elections of 1972, 1980, and 1988. Consequently, Presidential coattails have been virtually eliminated in most elections, and a number of Presidents—including Richard Nixon
Richard Nixon
Richard Milhous Nixon was the 37th President of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. The only president to resign the office, Nixon had previously served as a US representative and senator from California and as the 36th Vice President of the United States from 1953 to 1961 under...
, Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor....
, and George Bush
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
—have begun their terms with one or both chambers of Congress controlled by the opposition party.
Presidents may suffer from a “reverse coattail” effect, in which more votes are cast for their party's candidates for the House or Senate than are cast for them. In 1976, for example, Jimmy Carter
Jimmy Carter
James Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr. is an American politician who served as the 39th President of the United States and was the recipient of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, the only U.S. President to have received the Prize after leaving office...
won the White House and obtained a total of 40,828,587 votes, but Democratic candidates for the House that year received 41,749,411 votes. In 1992 almost all Democrats elected to Congress won more votes in their congressional districts than the party's Presidential candidate, Bill Clinton
Bill Clinton
William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation...
.
There is also the “negative coattail” effect, in which an unpopular Presidential candidate may hurt candidates on the party's ticket running for lower offices. Barry Goldwater's poor showing in the Presidential election of 1964 led to the defeat of dozens of Republicans in the House of Representatives, leaving President Lyndon Johnson a large Democratic majority to pass his programs.
Group Representation Constituencies
Main article: Group Representation ConstituencyGroup Representation Constituency
A Group Representation Constituency is a type of electoral division or constituency in Singapore, the Members of Parliament of which are voted into Parliament as a group...
Singapore introduced the GRC system in 1988, where candidates for Parliament run and are elected on a slate of 3 to 6 candidates in some constituencies, with a minimum of one minority candidate on each slate. The purported aim was to ensure minority representation in Parliament. However, it resulted in a "coattail effect" where unpopular and even unknown candidates are elected because they ran together with popular candidates (usually Ministers) on the same slate.
See also
- Straight-ticket votingStraight-ticket votingStraight-ticket voting or straight-party voting is the practice of voting for candidates of the same party for multiple positions. For example, if a member of the Democratic Party in the United States votes for every candidate from President, Senator, Representative, Governor, state legislators...
- Reagan's coattailsReagan's coattailsReagan’s coattails refers to the influence of Ronald Reagan’s popularity in elections other than his own, after the American political expression to “ride in on another’s coattails.” Chiefly, it refers to the “Reagan Revolution” accompanying his 1980 election to the U.S. Presidency. This victory...