Confirmation holism
Encyclopedia
Confirmation holism, also called epistemological holism is the claim that a single scientific theory
cannot be tested in isolation; a test of one theory always depends on other theories and hypotheses.
For example, in the first half of the 19th century, astronomers were observing the path of the planet Uranus
to see if it conformed to the path predicted by Newton's law of gravitation; it didn't. There were an indeterminate number of possible explanations, such as that the telescopic observations were wrong because of some unknown factor; or that Newton's laws were in error; or that God moves different planets in different ways. However, it was eventually accepted that an unknown planet was affecting the path of Uranus, and that the hypothesis that there are seven planets in our solar system was false. Le Verrier calculated the approximate position of the interfering planet and its existence was confirmed in 1846. We now call the planet Neptune
.
There are two aspects of confirmation holism. The first is that interpretation of observation is dependent on theory (sometimes called theory-laden). Before accepting the telescopic observations one must look into the optics of the telescope, the way the mount is constructed in order to ensure that the telescope is pointing in the right direction, and that light travels through space in a straight line (which Einstein demonstrated is not generally true, but is often an adequate approximation). The second is that evidence alone is insufficient to determine which theory is correct. Each of the alternatives above might have been correct, but only one was in the end accepted.
That theories can only be tested as they relate to other theories implies that one can always claim that test results that seem to refute a favoured scientific theory have not refuted that theory at all. Rather, one can claim that the test results conflict with predictions because some other theory is false or unrecognised (this is Einstein's basic objection when it comes to the uncertainty principle). Maybe the test equipment was out of alignment because the cleaning lady bumped into it the previous night. Or, maybe, there is dark matter
in the universe that accounts for the strange motions of some galaxies.
That one cannot unambiguously determine which theory is refuted by unexpected data means that scientists must use judgements about which theories to accept and which to reject. Logic alone does not guide such decisions.
The required observation (result), however, is not found, i.e.
So by Modus Tollens
,
All observations make use of prior assumptions, which can be symbolised as:
and therefore
which is by De Morgan's law equivalent to
.
In other words, the failure to make some observation only implies the failure of at least one of the prior assumptions that went into making the observation. It may be possible to reject an apparently falsifying observation by claiming that only one of its underlying assumptions is false, and not the one intended to be tested by the observation; if there are an indeterminate number of such assumptions, any observation can potentially be made compatible with any theory.
and so
which implies that
In words, the failure of some theory implies the failure of at least one of its underlying hypotheses. It may be possible to resurrect a falsified theory by claiming that only one of its underlying hypotheses that had been previously ignored is false; again, if there are an indeterminate number of such hypotheses underlying a particular theory, it can potentially be made compatible with any particular observation. Therefore it would be in principle impossible to determine if that theory is false by referring to evidence.
One upshot of confirmational holism is the underdetermination
of theories: if all theories (and the propositions derived from them) of what exists are not sufficiently determined by empirical data (data, sensory-data, evidence); each theory with its interpretation of the evidence is equally justifiable or, alternatively, equally indeterminate. Thus, the Greeks' worldview of Homeric gods is as credible as the physicists' world of electromagnetic waves. Quine later argued for ontological relativity, that our ordinary talk of objects suffers from the same underdetermination
and thus does not properly refer to objects.
While underdetermination does not invalidate the principle of falsifiability
first presented by Karl Popper
, Popper himself acknowledged that continual ad hoc
modification of a theory provides a means for a theory to avoid being falsified (cf. Lakatos
). In this respect, the principle of parsimony, or Occam's Razor
, plays a role. This principle presupposes that between multiple theories explaining the same phenomenon, the simplest theory – in this case, the one that is least dependent on continual ad hoc modification – is to be preferred.
, and perhaps related most popularly with Strawson
, attempts have been made at transcendental arguments
. This form of argument attempts to prove a proposition from the fact that said proposition is the precondition of some other well-established or accepted proposition(s). If one accepts the validity of this sort of argumentation, then these arguments may serve alongside the Razor, and may perhaps be more conclusive, as a heuristic for selecting between competing, under-determined theories.
Scientific theory
A scientific theory comprises a collection of concepts, including abstractions of observable phenomena expressed as quantifiable properties, together with rules that express relationships between observations of such concepts...
cannot be tested in isolation; a test of one theory always depends on other theories and hypotheses.
For example, in the first half of the 19th century, astronomers were observing the path of the planet Uranus
Uranus
Uranus is the seventh planet from the Sun. It has the third-largest planetary radius and fourth-largest planetary mass in the Solar System. It is named after the ancient Greek deity of the sky Uranus , the father of Cronus and grandfather of Zeus...
to see if it conformed to the path predicted by Newton's law of gravitation; it didn't. There were an indeterminate number of possible explanations, such as that the telescopic observations were wrong because of some unknown factor; or that Newton's laws were in error; or that God moves different planets in different ways. However, it was eventually accepted that an unknown planet was affecting the path of Uranus, and that the hypothesis that there are seven planets in our solar system was false. Le Verrier calculated the approximate position of the interfering planet and its existence was confirmed in 1846. We now call the planet Neptune
Neptune
Neptune is the eighth and farthest planet from the Sun in the Solar System. Named for the Roman god of the sea, it is the fourth-largest planet by diameter and the third largest by mass. Neptune is 17 times the mass of Earth and is slightly more massive than its near-twin Uranus, which is 15 times...
.
There are two aspects of confirmation holism. The first is that interpretation of observation is dependent on theory (sometimes called theory-laden). Before accepting the telescopic observations one must look into the optics of the telescope, the way the mount is constructed in order to ensure that the telescope is pointing in the right direction, and that light travels through space in a straight line (which Einstein demonstrated is not generally true, but is often an adequate approximation). The second is that evidence alone is insufficient to determine which theory is correct. Each of the alternatives above might have been correct, but only one was in the end accepted.
That theories can only be tested as they relate to other theories implies that one can always claim that test results that seem to refute a favoured scientific theory have not refuted that theory at all. Rather, one can claim that the test results conflict with predictions because some other theory is false or unrecognised (this is Einstein's basic objection when it comes to the uncertainty principle). Maybe the test equipment was out of alignment because the cleaning lady bumped into it the previous night. Or, maybe, there is dark matter
Dark matter
In astronomy and cosmology, dark matter is matter that neither emits nor scatters light or other electromagnetic radiation, and so cannot be directly detected via optical or radio astronomy...
in the universe that accounts for the strange motions of some galaxies.
That one cannot unambiguously determine which theory is refuted by unexpected data means that scientists must use judgements about which theories to accept and which to reject. Logic alone does not guide such decisions.
Theory-dependence of observations
Suppose some theory T implies an observation O (observation meaning here the result of the observation, rather than the process of observation per se):The required observation (result), however, is not found, i.e.
So by Modus Tollens
Modus tollens
In classical logic, modus tollens has the following argument form:- Formal notation :...
,
All observations make use of prior assumptions, which can be symbolised as:
and therefore
which is by De Morgan's law equivalent to
.In other words, the failure to make some observation only implies the failure of at least one of the prior assumptions that went into making the observation. It may be possible to reject an apparently falsifying observation by claiming that only one of its underlying assumptions is false, and not the one intended to be tested by the observation; if there are an indeterminate number of such assumptions, any observation can potentially be made compatible with any theory.
Underdetermination of a theory by evidence
Similarly, a theory consists of some indeterminate conjunction of hypotheses,and so
which implies that
In words, the failure of some theory implies the failure of at least one of its underlying hypotheses. It may be possible to resurrect a falsified theory by claiming that only one of its underlying hypotheses that had been previously ignored is false; again, if there are an indeterminate number of such hypotheses underlying a particular theory, it can potentially be made compatible with any particular observation. Therefore it would be in principle impossible to determine if that theory is false by referring to evidence.
Conceptual schemes
The framework of a theory (formal conceptual scheme) is just as open to revision as the "content" of the theory. The aphorism that Willard Quine uses is: theories face the tribunal of experience as a whole. This idea is problematic for the analytic-synthetic distinction because (in Quine's view) such a distinction supposes that some facts are true of language alone, but if conceptual scheme is as open to revision as synthetic content, then there can be no plausible distinction between framework and content, hence no distinction between the analytic and the synthetic.One upshot of confirmational holism is the underdetermination
Underdetermination
In scientific theory, underdetermination refers to situations where the evidence available is insufficient to identify which belief we should hold about that evidence...
of theories: if all theories (and the propositions derived from them) of what exists are not sufficiently determined by empirical data (data, sensory-data, evidence); each theory with its interpretation of the evidence is equally justifiable or, alternatively, equally indeterminate. Thus, the Greeks' worldview of Homeric gods is as credible as the physicists' world of electromagnetic waves. Quine later argued for ontological relativity, that our ordinary talk of objects suffers from the same underdetermination
Underdetermination
In scientific theory, underdetermination refers to situations where the evidence available is insufficient to identify which belief we should hold about that evidence...
and thus does not properly refer to objects.
While underdetermination does not invalidate the principle of falsifiability
Falsifiability
Falsifiability or refutability of an assertion, hypothesis or theory is the logical possibility that it can be contradicted by an observation or the outcome of a physical experiment...
first presented by Karl Popper
Karl Popper
Sir Karl Raimund Popper, CH FRS FBA was an Austro-British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics...
, Popper himself acknowledged that continual ad hoc
Ad hoc
Ad hoc is a Latin phrase meaning "for this". It generally signifies a solution designed for a specific problem or task, non-generalizable, and not intended to be able to be adapted to other purposes. Compare A priori....
modification of a theory provides a means for a theory to avoid being falsified (cf. Lakatos
Imre Lakatos
Imre Lakatos was a Hungarian philosopher of mathematics and science, known for his thesis of the fallibility of mathematics and its 'methodology of proofs and refutations' in its pre-axiomatic stages of development, and also for introducing the concept of the 'research programme' in his...
). In this respect, the principle of parsimony, or Occam's Razor
Occam's razor
Occam's razor, also known as Ockham's razor, and sometimes expressed in Latin as lex parsimoniae , is a principle that generally recommends from among competing hypotheses selecting the one that makes the fewest new assumptions.-Overview:The principle is often summarized as "simpler explanations...
, plays a role. This principle presupposes that between multiple theories explaining the same phenomenon, the simplest theory – in this case, the one that is least dependent on continual ad hoc modification – is to be preferred.
Transcendental arguments
In recent philosophical literature, starting with KantImmanuel Kant
Immanuel Kant was a German philosopher from Königsberg , researching, lecturing and writing on philosophy and anthropology at the end of the 18th Century Enlightenment....
, and perhaps related most popularly with Strawson
P. F. Strawson
Sir Peter Frederick Strawson FBA was an English philosopher. He was the Waynflete Professor of Metaphysical Philosophy at the University of Oxford from 1968 to 1987. Before that he was appointed as a college lecturer at University College, Oxford in 1947 and became a tutorial fellow the...
, attempts have been made at transcendental arguments
Transcendental arguments
A transcendental argument is a deductive philosophical argument which takes a manifest feature of experience as granted, and articulates that which must be the case so that experience as such is possible...
. This form of argument attempts to prove a proposition from the fact that said proposition is the precondition of some other well-established or accepted proposition(s). If one accepts the validity of this sort of argumentation, then these arguments may serve alongside the Razor, and may perhaps be more conclusive, as a heuristic for selecting between competing, under-determined theories.
See also
- CoherentismCoherentismThere are two distinct types of coherentism. One refers to the coherence theory of truth. The other refers to the coherence theory of justification. The coherentist theory of justification characterizes epistemic justification as a property of a belief only if that belief is a member of a coherent...
- Duhem–Quine thesisDuhem–Quine thesisThe Duhem–Quine thesis is that it is impossible to test a scientific hypothesis in isolation, because an empirical test of the hypothesis requires one or more background assumptions...
- No true ScotsmanNo true ScotsmanNo true Scotsman is an informal logical fallacy, an ad hoc attempt to retain an unreasoned assertion. When faced with a counterexample to a universal claim, rather than denying the counterexample or rejecting the original universal claim, this fallacy modifies the subject of the assertion to...
- TruthTruthTruth has a variety of meanings, such as the state of being in accord with fact or reality. It can also mean having fidelity to an original or to a standard or ideal. In a common usage, it also means constancy or sincerity in action or character...
- Truth theory
- UnderdeterminationUnderdeterminationIn scientific theory, underdetermination refers to situations where the evidence available is insufficient to identify which belief we should hold about that evidence...
Theories of truth
- Coherence theory of truthCoherence theory of truthCoherence theory of truth regards truth as coherence with some specified set of sentences, propositions or beliefs. There is no single coherence theory of truth, but rather an assortment of perspectives that are commonly collected under this title...
- Consensus theory of truthConsensus theory of truthA consensus theory of truth is any theory of truth that refers to a concept of consensus as a part of its concept of truth.-Consensus gentium:...
- Correspondence theory of truthCorrespondence theory of truthThe correspondence theory of truth states that the truth or falsity of a statement is determined only by how it relates to the world, and whether it accurately describes that world...
- Deflationary theory of truthDeflationary theory of truthA deflationary theory of truth is one of a family of theories which all have in common the claim that assertions that predicate truth of a statement do not attribute a property called truth to such a statement.-Redundancy theory:...
- Epistemic theories of truthEpistemic theories of truthIn philosophy, epistemic theories of truth are attempts to analyze the notion of truth in terms of epistemic notions such as knowledge, belief, acceptance, verification, justification, and perspective....
- Pragmatic theory of truthPragmatic theory of truthPragmatic theory of truth refers to those accounts, definitions, and theories of the concept truth that distinguish the philosophies of pragmatism and pragmaticism...
- Redundancy theory of truthRedundancy theory of truthAccording to the redundancy theory of truth, or the disquotational theory of truth, asserting that a statement is true is completely equivalent to asserting the statement itself. For example, asserting the sentence " 'Snow is white' is true" is equivalent to asserting the sentence "Snow is...
- Semantic theory of truthSemantic theory of truthA semantic theory of truth is a theory of truth in the philosophy of language which holds that truth is a property of sentences.-Origin:The semantic conception of truth, which is related in different ways to both the correspondence and deflationary conceptions, is due to work published by Polish...
Related topics
- BeliefBeliefBelief is the psychological state in which an individual holds a proposition or premise to be true.-Belief, knowledge and epistemology:The terms belief and knowledge are used differently in philosophy....
- Epistemology
- InformationInformationInformation in its most restricted technical sense is a message or collection of messages that consists of an ordered sequence of symbols, or it is the meaning that can be interpreted from such a message or collection of messages. Information can be recorded or transmitted. It can be recorded as...
- InquiryInquiryAn inquiry is any process that has the aim of augmenting knowledge, resolving doubt, or solving a problem. A theory of inquiry is an account of the various types of inquiry and a treatment of the ways that each type of inquiry achieves its aim.-Deduction:...
- KnowledgeKnowledgeKnowledge is a familiarity with someone or something unknown, which can include information, facts, descriptions, or skills acquired through experience or education. It can refer to the theoretical or practical understanding of a subject...
- PragmatismPragmatismPragmatism is a philosophical tradition centered on the linking of practice and theory. It describes a process where theory is extracted from practice, and applied back to practice to form what is called intelligent practice...
- PragmaticismPragmaticismPragmaticism is a term used by Charles Sanders Peirce for his pragmatic philosophy starting in 1905, in order to distance himself and it from pragmatism, the original name, which had been used in a manner he did not approve of in the "literary journals"...
- Pragmatic maximPragmatic maximThe pragmatic maxim, also known as the maxim of pragmatism or the maxim of pragmaticism, is a maxim of logic formulated by Charles Sanders Peirce...
- ReproducibilityReproducibilityReproducibility is the ability of an experiment or study to be accurately reproduced, or replicated, by someone else working independently...
- Scientific methodScientific methodScientific method refers to a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of...
- TestabilityTestabilityTestability, a property applying to an empirical hypothesis, involves two components: the logical property that is variously described as contingency, defeasibility, or falsifiability, which means that counterexamples to the hypothesis are logically possible, and the practical feasibility of...
- Verificationism