Cornucopian
Encyclopedia
A cornucopian is a futurist who believes that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by similarly continued advances in technology. Fundamentally they believe that there is enough matter and energy on the Earth to provide for the estimated peak population of about 9.22 billion in 2075.
Looking further into the future they posit that the abundance of matter and energy in space would appear to give humanity almost unlimited room for growth.
The term comes from the cornucopia
, the "horn of plenty" of Greek mythology
, which magically supplied its owners with endless food and drink. The cornucopians are sometimes known as "Boomsters", and their philosophic opponents—Malthus and his school—are called "Doomsters" or "Doomer
s."
in the 1981 (Humans as:) The Ultimate Resource
, acknowledges that greater consumption is due to an increase in population, which heightens scarcity and induces price increases, at least in the short run. Higher prices create an opportunity, however, which leads inventors and businesses to seek new ways to satisfy the shortages. A few inventors and businesses eventually succeed, and finally society ends up better off than if the original shortage problems had never arisen. As population grows, the stock of useful knowledge grows as well. Cornucopians assert that the basic forces influencing the state of humanity and its progress are not due to inherent limitations caused by the so-called "finite" amount of natural resources, but by (a) the number of people who are alive to consume and "produce" goods and knowledge and (b) the level of wealth. Under this economic philosophy, wealth is more than the amount of tangible assets, and as Simon asserts; "natural resources" such as ores, are not finite since those are economic terms defined by economics. For example, because the boundary between an ore and non-ore is unfixed, (but defined by current economics,) then as Simon and his followers argue; ore is economically infinite. The extent of wealth depends upon the level of technology and the ability to create new knowledge, which is virtually unlimited. Most orthodox economic theories of the twentieth century are Cornucopian because they are based on the model that humans "produce" or "create" wealth rather than permanently "transform" natural resources. "Production" is not accounted for as part of the one-way consumption cycle. So depleting a typical natural resource is typically not accounted for as a depletion of essential stocks. These stocks are treated economically as infinite, or valueless.
As a society becomes more wealthy, it also creates a well-developed set of legal rules to produce the conditions of freedom and security that progress requires.
One common example of this labeling is by those who are skeptical of the view that technology can solve, or overcome, the problem of an exponentially-increasing human population living off a finite base of natural resources. So-called cornucopians might counter that human population growth has slowed dramatically, and not only is currently growing at a linear rate, but is projected to peak and start declining later this century.
In practice, the cornucopian view relies upon the economic law of supply and demand, which has the following implication: as long as the price of a good is free to adjust, all consumers who wish to purchase the good at the going price are able to do so. Resources do not run out, they simply become more expensive. Although another viewpoint is the post scarcity
model which moves beyond conventional economics - and indeed cannot be adequately described by usual economic models which are based on the notion of scarcity
.
However, this would imply there is already enough for the current world population, but as starvation and fuel poverty
have not yet been eradicated, the argument therefore is that the problem is not a lack of resources but rather inadequate distribution through the current economic and political systems.
s might be characterized as peakists or even doomers by other cornucopians. A typical cornucopian view might be characterized as "there exist viable solutions to the problem of peak oil" or "there is oil for at least 800 years when we take into account tar sands
and oil shale
".
Looking further into the future they posit that the abundance of matter and energy in space would appear to give humanity almost unlimited room for growth.
The term comes from the cornucopia
Cornucopia
The cornucopia or horn of plenty is a symbol of abundance and nourishment, commonly a large horn-shaped container overflowing with produce, flowers, nuts, other edibles, or wealth in some form...
, the "horn of plenty" of Greek mythology
Greek mythology
Greek mythology is the body of myths and legends belonging to the ancient Greeks, concerning their gods and heroes, the nature of the world, and the origins and significance of their own cult and ritual practices. They were a part of religion in ancient Greece...
, which magically supplied its owners with endless food and drink. The cornucopians are sometimes known as "Boomsters", and their philosophic opponents—Malthus and his school—are called "Doomsters" or "Doomer
Doomer
A Doomer is one who has peak oil related concerns that price shocks spawned by oil depletion will contribute to a severe economic recession or another Great Depression). Doomers attribute their beliefs to humanity's over reliance on petroleum for agricultural and industrial productivity. Many...
s."
Theory
Cornucopian theory, as formulated by Julian L. SimonJulian Lincoln Simon
Julian Lincoln Simon was a professor of business administration at the University of Maryland and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute at the time of his death, after previously serving as a longtime business professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Simon wrote many books and...
in the 1981 (Humans as:) The Ultimate Resource
The Ultimate Resource
The Ultimate Resource is a 1981 book written by Julian Lincoln Simon challenging the notion that humanity was running out of natural resources...
, acknowledges that greater consumption is due to an increase in population, which heightens scarcity and induces price increases, at least in the short run. Higher prices create an opportunity, however, which leads inventors and businesses to seek new ways to satisfy the shortages. A few inventors and businesses eventually succeed, and finally society ends up better off than if the original shortage problems had never arisen. As population grows, the stock of useful knowledge grows as well. Cornucopians assert that the basic forces influencing the state of humanity and its progress are not due to inherent limitations caused by the so-called "finite" amount of natural resources, but by (a) the number of people who are alive to consume and "produce" goods and knowledge and (b) the level of wealth. Under this economic philosophy, wealth is more than the amount of tangible assets, and as Simon asserts; "natural resources" such as ores, are not finite since those are economic terms defined by economics. For example, because the boundary between an ore and non-ore is unfixed, (but defined by current economics,) then as Simon and his followers argue; ore is economically infinite. The extent of wealth depends upon the level of technology and the ability to create new knowledge, which is virtually unlimited. Most orthodox economic theories of the twentieth century are Cornucopian because they are based on the model that humans "produce" or "create" wealth rather than permanently "transform" natural resources. "Production" is not accounted for as part of the one-way consumption cycle. So depleting a typical natural resource is typically not accounted for as a depletion of essential stocks. These stocks are treated economically as infinite, or valueless.
As a society becomes more wealthy, it also creates a well-developed set of legal rules to produce the conditions of freedom and security that progress requires.
Description by an opposing view
Stereotypically, a cornucopian is someone who posits that there are few intractable natural limits to growth and believes the world can provide a practically limitless abundance of natural resources. The label 'cornucopian' is rarely self-applied, and is most commonly used derogatorily by those who believe that the target is overly optimistic about the resources that will be available in the future.One common example of this labeling is by those who are skeptical of the view that technology can solve, or overcome, the problem of an exponentially-increasing human population living off a finite base of natural resources. So-called cornucopians might counter that human population growth has slowed dramatically, and not only is currently growing at a linear rate, but is projected to peak and start declining later this century.
In practice, the cornucopian view relies upon the economic law of supply and demand, which has the following implication: as long as the price of a good is free to adjust, all consumers who wish to purchase the good at the going price are able to do so. Resources do not run out, they simply become more expensive. Although another viewpoint is the post scarcity
Post scarcity
Post scarcity is a hypothetical form of economy or society, in which things such as goods, services and information are free, or practically free...
model which moves beyond conventional economics - and indeed cannot be adequately described by usual economic models which are based on the notion of scarcity
Scarcity
Scarcity is the fundamental economic problem of having humans who have unlimited wants and needs in a world of limited resources. It states that society has insufficient productive resources to fulfill all human wants and needs. Alternatively, scarcity implies that not all of society's goals can be...
.
However, this would imply there is already enough for the current world population, but as starvation and fuel poverty
Fuel poverty
A household is said to be in fuel poverty when they cannot afford to keep adequately warm at reasonable cost, given it's income. The term is mainly used in the UK, Ireland and New Zealand, although the concept also applies everywhere in the world where poverty may be present.As the term fuel...
have not yet been eradicated, the argument therefore is that the problem is not a lack of resources but rather inadequate distribution through the current economic and political systems.
Peak oil
In the "peak oil" debate, the views of those labeled as cornucopian are very diverse, ranging from the simplistic "we will never run out of oil" to pessimistic views such as "we might transition to alternatives fast enough to barely avoid the collapse of civilization". The spectrum is broad enough that some who are characterized as cornucopians by doomerDoomer
A Doomer is one who has peak oil related concerns that price shocks spawned by oil depletion will contribute to a severe economic recession or another Great Depression). Doomers attribute their beliefs to humanity's over reliance on petroleum for agricultural and industrial productivity. Many...
s might be characterized as peakists or even doomers by other cornucopians. A typical cornucopian view might be characterized as "there exist viable solutions to the problem of peak oil" or "there is oil for at least 800 years when we take into account tar sands
Tar sands
Bituminous sands, colloquially known as oil sands or tar sands, are a type of unconventional petroleum deposit. The sands contain naturally occurring mixtures of sand, clay, water, and a dense and extremely viscous form of petroleum technically referred to as bitumen...
and oil shale
Oil shale
Oil shale, an organic-rich fine-grained sedimentary rock, contains significant amounts of kerogen from which liquid hydrocarbons called shale oil can be produced...
".
See also
- Post scarcityPost scarcityPost scarcity is a hypothetical form of economy or society, in which things such as goods, services and information are free, or practically free...
- Jacque FrescoJacque FrescoJacque Fresco , is a self-educated structural designer, philosopher of science, concept artist, educator, and futurist. His interests span a wide range of disciplines including several in philosophy, science, and engineering...
- John McCarthyJohn McCarthy (computer scientist)John McCarthy was an American computer scientist and cognitive scientist. He coined the term "artificial intelligence" , invented the Lisp programming language and was highly influential in the early development of AI.McCarthy also influenced other areas of computing such as time sharing systems...
- Matt Simmons
- Thomas Robert Malthus
Further reading
- Ed Regis, "The Doomslayer" Wired Magazine, Issue 5.02, February 1997.
- Frank J. Tipler, "There Are No Limits To The Open Society" Critical Rationalist, Vol. 3, No. 2, September 23, 1998.
- William R. Catton, Jr, "The Problem of Denial" Environment & Society, 1994.
- Ernest Partridge, "Perilous Optimism" February 2001
- Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. "On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict." International Security, Vol. 16, No. 2, Autumn, 1991, 76-116.
- Homer-Dixon, Thomas F, "Environment, scarcity and violence", Princeton, 1999.
- Simon, Julian L. "The ultimate resource", Oxford, 1981.