Demographic gift
Encyclopedia
Demographic gift is a term in demographics
used to describe the initially favorable effect of falling fertility
rates on the age dependency ratio
, the fraction of children and aged as compared to that of the working
population
.
rates—the so-called "demographic transition
"—produce a typical sequence of effects on age structures. The child-dependency ratio (the ratio of children to those who support them) at first rises somewhat due to more children surviving, then falls sharply as average family size decreases. Later, the overall population ages rapidly, as currently seen in many developed
and rapidly developing
nations. Between these two periods is a long interval of favorable age distributions
, known as the "demographic gift," with low and falling total dependency ratios (including both children and aged persons).
to emphasize the idea that the effect is not automatic but must be earned by the presence of suitable economic policies that allow a relatively large workforce
to be productively employed.
The term has also been used by the Middle East Youth Initiative
to describe the current youth bulge in the Middle East
and North Africa
in which 15-29 year olds comprise around 30% of the total population. It is believed that, through educational and employment, the current youth population in the Middle East could fuel economic growth and development as young East Asians were able to for the Asian Tigers.
Demographics
Demographics are the most recent statistical characteristics of a population. These types of data are used widely in sociology , public policy, and marketing. Commonly examined demographics include gender, race, age, disabilities, mobility, home ownership, employment status, and even location...
used to describe the initially favorable effect of falling fertility
Fertility
Fertility is the natural capability of producing offsprings. As a measure, "fertility rate" is the number of children born per couple, person or population. Fertility differs from fecundity, which is defined as the potential for reproduction...
rates on the age dependency ratio
Dependency ratio
In economics and geography the dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force and those typically in the labor force...
, the fraction of children and aged as compared to that of the working
Employment
Employment is a contract between two parties, one being the employer and the other being the employee. An employee may be defined as:- Employee :...
population
Population
A population is all the organisms that both belong to the same group or species and live in the same geographical area. The area that is used to define a sexual population is such that inter-breeding is possible between any pair within the area and more probable than cross-breeding with individuals...
.
Overview
Fertility declines in a population combined with falls in mortalityMortality rate
Mortality rate is a measure of the number of deaths in a population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit time...
rates—the so-called "demographic transition
Demographic transition
The demographic transition model is the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American...
"—produce a typical sequence of effects on age structures. The child-dependency ratio (the ratio of children to those who support them) at first rises somewhat due to more children surviving, then falls sharply as average family size decreases. Later, the overall population ages rapidly, as currently seen in many developed
Developed country
A developed country is a country that has a high level of development according to some criteria. Which criteria, and which countries are classified as being developed, is a contentious issue...
and rapidly developing
Emerging markets
Emerging markets are nations with social or business activity in the process of rapid growth and industrialization. Based on data from 2006, there are around 28 emerging markets in the world . The economies of China and India are considered to be the largest...
nations. Between these two periods is a long interval of favorable age distributions
Population pyramid
A population pyramid, also called an age structure diagram, is a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population , which forms the shape of a pyramid when the population is growing...
, known as the "demographic gift," with low and falling total dependency ratios (including both children and aged persons).
Use of the term
The term was used by David Bloom and Jeffrey Williamson to signify the economic benefits of a high ratio of working-age to dependent population during the demographic transition. Bloom et al. introduced the term demographic dividendDemographic dividend
The demographic dividend is a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population. This usually occurs late in the demographic transition when the fertility rate falls and the youth dependency rate declines. During this demographic window of opportunity,...
to emphasize the idea that the effect is not automatic but must be earned by the presence of suitable economic policies that allow a relatively large workforce
Workforce
The workforce is the labour pool in employment. It is generally used to describe those working for a single company or industry, but can also apply to a geographic region like a city, country, state, etc. The term generally excludes the employers or management, and implies those involved in...
to be productively employed.
The term has also been used by the Middle East Youth Initiative
Middle East Youth Initiative
The Middle East Youth Initiative is a program at the , housed in the program at the Brookings Institution. It was launched in July 2006 as a joint effort between the Wolfensohn Center and the Dubai School of Government....
to describe the current youth bulge in the Middle East
Middle East
The Middle East is a region that encompasses Western Asia and Northern Africa. It is often used as a synonym for Near East, in opposition to Far East...
and North Africa
North Africa
North Africa or Northern Africa is the northernmost region of the African continent, linked by the Sahara to Sub-Saharan Africa. Geopolitically, the United Nations definition of Northern Africa includes eight countries or territories; Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, South Sudan, Sudan, Tunisia, and...
in which 15-29 year olds comprise around 30% of the total population. It is believed that, through educational and employment, the current youth population in the Middle East could fuel economic growth and development as young East Asians were able to for the Asian Tigers.