Earnshaw Cook
Encyclopedia
Earnshaw Cook was an early researcher and proponent of sabermetrics
, the analysis of baseball
through statistical
means.
class of 1921, Cook was an engineer specializing in metallurgy
. He spent most of his working life at the American Brake Shoe Co. in Mahwah, New Jersey
, later consulting on the Manhattan Project
before retiring from the industry 1945. In the 1950s and 1960s, Cook worked as a mechanical engineering
professor at Johns Hopkins University
, where he published several academic papers.
, holder of the highest career batting average
at .366, was better than Babe Ruth
, the premier power hitter of the first half of the 20th century. Additionally Cook sought to understand strategical issues such as batting order
and relief pitching
, rather than accept the traditional strategies of baseball. Sports Illustrated
writer Frank Deford
learned of Cook's work and interviewed him for the lead story of a 1964 issue with the title "Baseball is Played All Wrong". Using tools of the time, such as a slide rule
and a Friden STW mechanical calculator, Earnshaw Cook published the culmination of his work, Percentage Baseball (MIT Press
), in 1964. Percentage Baseball was the first book of baseball statistics studies to gain national media attention. Though Cook received some support from Los Angeles Dodgers
manager Walter Alston
and Chicago White Sox
owner Bill Veeck
, most baseball executives and managers rejected Cook's mathematical approach and academic language. He was also criticized for lax mathematical models and inadequate numerical evidence by statisticians, such as George Lindsey (himself a baseball statistician), who advised that it be "kept out of the sight of students of the theory of probability." Modern author Michael Lewis
describes Cook's prose as "crafted to alienate [baseball statistics] converts."
Among Cook's most bold assertions was that, utilizing his strategies, a team could gain up to 250 runs
a season, a number which modern methods indicate is an extreme overestimate. Years later, sabermetrician Pete Palmer
and sports historian John Thorn
asserted that their computer simulations using Cook's lineup modifications actually slightly reduce the number of runs a team scored. Bill James
would later write in his 1981 Baseball Abstract that "Cook knew everything about statistics and nothing at all about baseball--and for that reasons, all of his answers are wrong, all of his methods useless." Earnshaw Cook also dismissed the effects of player handedness (thus, condemning the use of the platoon system
), which even contemporary studies pointed out to be erroneous. Cook did, however, uncover several important pieces of information which are now accepted as common knowledge in modern sabermetrics, such as the inefficiency of the sacrifice bunt. More importantly, the material generated discussion on statistical analysis in baseball and introduced many baseball fans to objective research. In 1971, Waverly Press published Cook's follow-up to Percentage Baseball titled Percentage Baseball and the Computer, in which Cook describes many pieces of strategy his computer simulations suggest.
, Ewing Kauffman
and Davey Johnson
, as well as future sabermetricians like Palmer. Percentage Baseball also influenced Eric Walker, who worked for the San Francisco Giants
and Sandy Alderson
's Oakland Athletics
. Cook's slide rule, which he used during his research for Percentage Baseball, was donated upon request to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Earnshaw Cook died of a heart attack in 1987.
Philip Roth
based the character of the kid genius baseball coach Isaac Ellis in The Great American Novel
on Cook.
Sabermetrics
Sabermetrics is the specialized analysis of baseball through objective, empirical evidence, specifically baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research...
, the analysis of baseball
Baseball
Baseball is a bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players each. The aim is to score runs by hitting a thrown ball with a bat and touching a series of four bases arranged at the corners of a ninety-foot diamond...
through statistical
Baseball statistics
Statistics play an important role in summarizing baseball performance and evaluating players in the sport.Since the flow of a baseball game has natural breaks to it, and normally players act individually rather than performing in clusters, the sport lends itself to easy record-keeping and statistics...
means.
Engineering
A member of the Princeton UniversityPrinceton University
Princeton University is a private research university located in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. The school is one of the eight universities of the Ivy League, and is one of the nine Colonial Colleges founded before the American Revolution....
class of 1921, Cook was an engineer specializing in metallurgy
Metallurgy
Metallurgy is a domain of materials science that studies the physical and chemical behavior of metallic elements, their intermetallic compounds, and their mixtures, which are called alloys. It is also the technology of metals: the way in which science is applied to their practical use...
. He spent most of his working life at the American Brake Shoe Co. in Mahwah, New Jersey
Mahwah, New Jersey
Mahwah is a township in Bergen County, New Jersey, United States. As of the 2010 United States Census, the township population was 25,890. The name Mahwah is derived from the Lenni Lenape word "mawewi" which means "Meeting Place" or "Place Where Paths Meet".The area that is now Mahwah was...
, later consulting on the Manhattan Project
Manhattan Project
The Manhattan Project was a research and development program, led by the United States with participation from the United Kingdom and Canada, that produced the first atomic bomb during World War II. From 1942 to 1946, the project was under the direction of Major General Leslie Groves of the US Army...
before retiring from the industry 1945. In the 1950s and 1960s, Cook worked as a mechanical engineering
Mechanical engineering
Mechanical engineering is a discipline of engineering that applies the principles of physics and materials science for analysis, design, manufacturing, and maintenance of mechanical systems. It is the branch of engineering that involves the production and usage of heat and mechanical power for the...
professor at Johns Hopkins University
Johns Hopkins University
The Johns Hopkins University, commonly referred to as Johns Hopkins, JHU, or simply Hopkins, is a private research university based in Baltimore, Maryland, United States...
, where he published several academic papers.
Statistical baseball studies
Cook first set about his statistical baseball studies with the goal of proving that Ty CobbTy Cobb
Tyrus Raymond "Ty" Cobb , nicknamed "The Georgia Peach," was an American Major League Baseball outfielder. He was born in Narrows, Georgia...
, holder of the highest career batting average
Batting average
Batting average is a statistic in both cricket and baseball that measures the performance of cricket batsmen and baseball hitters. The two statistics are related in that baseball averages are directly descended from the concept of cricket averages.- Cricket :...
at .366, was better than Babe Ruth
Babe Ruth
George Herman Ruth, Jr. , best known as "Babe" Ruth and nicknamed "the Bambino" and "the Sultan of Swat", was an American Major League baseball player from 1914–1935...
, the premier power hitter of the first half of the 20th century. Additionally Cook sought to understand strategical issues such as batting order
Batting order (baseball)
The batting order, or batting lineup, in baseball is the sequence in which the nine members of the offense take their turns in batting against the pitcher. The batting order is the main component of a team's offensive strategy. The batting order is set by the manager before the game begins...
and relief pitching
Relief pitcher
A relief pitcher or reliever is a baseball or softball pitcher who enters the game after the starting pitcher is removed due to injury, ineffectiveness, fatigue, ejection, or for other strategic reasons, such as being substituted by a pinch hitter...
, rather than accept the traditional strategies of baseball. Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated is an American sports media company owned by media conglomerate Time Warner. Its self titled magazine has over 3.5 million subscribers and is read by 23 million adults each week, including over 18 million men. It was the first magazine with circulation over one million to win the...
writer Frank Deford
Frank Deford
Benjamin "Frank" Deford, III is a senior contributing writer for Sports Illustrated, author, and commentator for National Public Radio and correspondent for Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel on HBO....
learned of Cook's work and interviewed him for the lead story of a 1964 issue with the title "Baseball is Played All Wrong". Using tools of the time, such as a slide rule
Slide rule
The slide rule, also known colloquially as a slipstick, is a mechanical analog computer. The slide rule is used primarily for multiplication and division, and also for functions such as roots, logarithms and trigonometry, but is not normally used for addition or subtraction.Slide rules come in a...
and a Friden STW mechanical calculator, Earnshaw Cook published the culmination of his work, Percentage Baseball (MIT Press
MIT Press
The MIT Press is a university press affiliated with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts .-History:...
), in 1964. Percentage Baseball was the first book of baseball statistics studies to gain national media attention. Though Cook received some support from Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a professional baseball team based in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers are members of Major League Baseball's National League West Division. Established in 1883, the team originated in Brooklyn, New York, where it was known by a number of nicknames before becoming...
manager Walter Alston
Walter Alston
Walter Emmons Alston , nicknamed "Smokey," was an American baseball player and manager. He was born in Venice, Ohio but grew up in Darrtown. He is a graduate of Miami University in Oxford, Ohio, where he lettered three years in both basketball and baseball and is a member of the University's Hall...
and Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox are a Major League Baseball team located in Chicago, Illinois.The White Sox play in the American League's Central Division. Since , the White Sox have played in U.S. Cellular Field, which was originally called New Comiskey Park and nicknamed The Cell by local fans...
owner Bill Veeck
Bill Veeck
William Louis Veeck, Jr. , also known as "Sport Shirt Bill", was a native of Chicago, Illinois, and a franchise owner and promoter in Major League Baseball. He was best known for his publicity stunts to raise attendance. Veeck was at various times the owner of the Cleveland Indians, St. Louis...
, most baseball executives and managers rejected Cook's mathematical approach and academic language. He was also criticized for lax mathematical models and inadequate numerical evidence by statisticians, such as George Lindsey (himself a baseball statistician), who advised that it be "kept out of the sight of students of the theory of probability." Modern author Michael Lewis
Michael Lewis (author)
Michael Lewis is an American non-fiction author and financial journalist. His bestselling books include The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine, Liar's Poker, The New New Thing, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game, Panic and Home Game: An...
describes Cook's prose as "crafted to alienate [baseball statistics] converts."
Among Cook's most bold assertions was that, utilizing his strategies, a team could gain up to 250 runs
Run (baseball)
In baseball, a run is scored when a player advances around first, second and third base and returns safely to home plate, touching the bases in that order, before three outs are recorded and all obligations to reach base safely on batted balls are met or assured...
a season, a number which modern methods indicate is an extreme overestimate. Years later, sabermetrician Pete Palmer
Pete Palmer
Pete Palmer is a major contributor to the applied mathematical field referred to as sabermetrics. Along with the Bill James Baseball Abstracts, Palmer's book The Hidden Game of Baseball is often referred to as providing the foundation upon which the field of sabermetrics was built.Palmer began his...
and sports historian John Thorn
John Thorn
John Thorn is a noted sports historian, and the Official Baseball Historian for Major League Baseball.-Early life:Thorn was born in Stuttgart, West Germany. His Polish Jewish parents had come there as refugees. He immigrated to the United States in 1949...
asserted that their computer simulations using Cook's lineup modifications actually slightly reduce the number of runs a team scored. Bill James
Bill James
George William “Bill” James is a baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics...
would later write in his 1981 Baseball Abstract that "Cook knew everything about statistics and nothing at all about baseball--and for that reasons, all of his answers are wrong, all of his methods useless." Earnshaw Cook also dismissed the effects of player handedness (thus, condemning the use of the platoon system
Platoon system
The platoon system in baseball is a method of designating two players to a single defensive position—usually one right-handed and one left-handed. Typically the right-handed half of the platoon is played on days when the opposing pitcher is left-handed and the left-handed player is played otherwise...
), which even contemporary studies pointed out to be erroneous. Cook did, however, uncover several important pieces of information which are now accepted as common knowledge in modern sabermetrics, such as the inefficiency of the sacrifice bunt. More importantly, the material generated discussion on statistical analysis in baseball and introduced many baseball fans to objective research. In 1971, Waverly Press published Cook's follow-up to Percentage Baseball titled Percentage Baseball and the Computer, in which Cook describes many pieces of strategy his computer simulations suggest.
Influence and legacy
Cook never worked for a Major League baseball team; he described the relationship between himself and baseball franchises in the forward to Percentage Baseball: "I would be willing to go as far as pretending to understand why none of four competent and successful executives of second-division ball clubs were most reluctant to employ probabilistic methods of any description... but they did not even want to hear about them!" Though Cook himself was never hired by a Major League team, his work influenced Major League Baseball personnel such as Tal SmithTal Smith
Talbot Merton Smith is an American former professional baseball executive who has served in high baseball operations positions — including general manager and club president — as well as the founder of a firm that advises Major League Baseball teams on salary arbitration cases.A veteran of 54...
, Ewing Kauffman
Ewing Kauffman
Ewing Marion Kauffman was an American pharmaceutical magnate, philanthropist, and Major League Baseball owner....
and Davey Johnson
Davey Johnson
David Allen "Davey" Johnson is an American Major League Baseball player and current manager of the Washington Nationals. He was the starting second baseman for the Baltimore Orioles when they won four American League pennants and two World Series championships between 1965 and 1972...
, as well as future sabermetricians like Palmer. Percentage Baseball also influenced Eric Walker, who worked for the San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants are a Major League Baseball team based in San Francisco, California, playing in the National League West Division....
and Sandy Alderson
Sandy Alderson
Richard Lynn "Sandy" Alderson is the general manager of the New York Mets. He previously served as an executive with the Oakland Athletics, San Diego Padres and the commissioner's office of Major League Baseball....
's Oakland Athletics
Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are a Major League Baseball team based in Oakland, California. The Athletics are a member of the Western Division of Major League Baseball's American League. From to the present, the Athletics have played in the O.co Coliseum....
. Cook's slide rule, which he used during his research for Percentage Baseball, was donated upon request to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Earnshaw Cook died of a heart attack in 1987.
Philip Roth
Philip Roth
Philip Milton Roth is an American novelist. He gained fame with the 1959 novella Goodbye, Columbus, an irreverent and humorous portrait of Jewish-American life that earned him a National Book Award...
based the character of the kid genius baseball coach Isaac Ellis in The Great American Novel
The Great American Novel (Roth)
The Great American Novel is a novel by Philip Roth, published in 1973.-Summary:The novel concerns the Patriot League, a fictional American baseball league, and the national Communist conspiracy to eliminate its history because it has become a fully open communist organization.-Plot:The Port Ruppert...
on Cook.