Effects of global warming on Australia
Encyclopedia
Predictions measuring the effects of global warming on Australia assert that climate change
will negatively impact the continent's environment, economy, and communities. Australia has been designated as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change
, according to the Stern report and others, due partially to the importance of its agricultural
sector and the prominence of its coast.
Australia is vulnerable to the effects of global warming
projected for the next 50 to 100 years because of its extensive arid and semi-arid areas, high annual rainfall variability, and existing pressures on water supply. The continent's high fire risk increases this susceptibility to change in temperature and climate. Additionally, Australia's population is highly concentrated in coastal areas, and its important tourism industry depends on the health of the Great Barrier Reef
and other fragile ecosystems. Impacts of climate change will be complex and to some degree uncertain, but increased foresight may enable the country to safeguard its future through planned mitigation
and adaptation
. Mitigation may reduce the ultimate extent of climate change and its impacts, but requires global solutions and cooperation, while adaptation can be performed at national and local levels.
will have diverse implications for Australia’s environment, economy, and public health.
A 2007 technical report on climate change in Australia jointly published by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
(CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology provides climate change projections accounting for a number of variables, including temperature, rainfall, and others. The report provides assessment of observed Australian climate changes and causes, and projections for 2030 and 2070, under a range of emissions scenarios.
The Government of Australia acknowledges the impacts of changing climatic conditions, and its Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency has established the Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP), which aims to understand the causes, nature, timing, and consequences of climate change so as to inform the Australian response. The ACCSP will dedicate $14.4 million per year towards climate change research and has already made substantial progress with a recent publication, Australian Climate Change Research: Perspectives on Successes, Challenges, and Future Directions.
under even a "low global warming" scenario. A 2006 report, prepared by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Bushfire CRC, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, identified South Eastern Australia as one of the 3 most fire-prone areas in the world,, and concluded that an increase in fire-weather risk is likely at most sites over the next several decades, including the average number of days when the Forest Fire Danger Index rating is very high or extreme. It also found that the combined frequencies of days with very high and extreme FFDI ratings are likely to increase 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050, and that the increase in fire-weather risk is generally largest inland.
In 2009, the Black Saturday bushfires erupted after a period of record hot weather resulting in the loss of over 210 lives (as at 22 March 2009), the destruction of 1830 homes, and the newly found homelessness of over 7,000 people.
has claimed that extreme weather events
are on the rise as a result of human interference in the climate system, and climate models indicate the potential for increases in extremes of temperature, precipitation, droughts, storms, and floods. The CSIRO predicts that a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius on the Australian continent could incur some of the following extreme weather occurrences, in addition to standard patterns:
ecosystems is possibly the most significant potential large-scale singularity to Australia. Coral reef ecosystems have a narrow temperature range, meaning that they can rapidly change from being a healthy system to being stressed, bleached, or at worst, eradicated.
Ecosystem changes in other parts of the world could also have serious consequences for climate change for the Australian continent. Evidence from carbon cycle modeling suggests that the deaths of forests in tropical regions might increase the net concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by converting the terrestrial biosphere from a carbon sink to a source of .
Recently, scientists have expressed concern about the potential for climate change to destabilize the Greenland Ice Sheet
and West Antarctic Ice Sheet
. An increase in global temperatures as well as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets (which causes an increase in the volume of freshwater flowing into the ocean), could threaten the balance of the global ocean thermohaline circulation
(THC). Such deterioration could cause significant environmental and economic consequences through regional climate shifts in Australia and elsewhere, resulting from change in the global ocean circulation. Melting of glaciers and ice sheets also contributes to sea-level rise. Immense quantities of ice are held in the ice sheets of West Antarctica and Greenland, jointly containing the equivalent of approximately 12 meters of sea-level rise. Deterioration or breakdown of these ice sheets would lead to irreversible sea-level rise and coastal inundation across the globe.
The CSIRO predicts that additional singularities caused by a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees celsius will be:
New projections for Australia's changing climate include:
. Additional warming of 1°C is expected to cause substantial losses of species and of associated coral communities.
The CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees celsius will be:
The CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius will be:
Water Resources
Healthy and diverse vegetation is essential to river health and quality, and many of Australia’s most important catchments are covered by native forest, maintaining a healthy ecosystem. Climate change will affect growth, species composition and pest incursion of native species and in turn will profoundly affect water supply from these catchments. Increased re-afforestation in cleared catchments also has the prospect for water losses.
The CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between only 1 and 2 degrees Celsius will be:
The CSIRO describes the additional impact on settlements and infrastructure for rises in temperature of only 1 to 2 degrees celsius:
A 1m sea level rise would have massive impacts, not just on property and associated economic systems, but in displacement of human populations throughout the continent. Queensland is the most at risk state due to the presence of valuable beachfront housing.
like Manly
, Botany
, Narrabeen, Port Botany, and Rockdale
, which lie on rivers like the Parramatta
, face risks of flooding in low lying areas such as parks (like Timbrell Park and Majors Bay Reserve), or massive expenses in rebuilding seawalls to higher levels.
are situated around Port Phillip
. A sea level rise of 1m would threaten the surrounding area, including suburban communities. It would also flood all of the city's major cargo shipping docks, surrounding cargo storage areas, the Docklands development and several marinas and berths in Port Phillip. A sea level rise of 1m would displace around 5-10,000 people and directly impact approximately 60-80,000 people in metropolitan Melbourne/Mornington Peninsula alone.
A sea level rise of 5-10m would see the CBD at the mouth of the Yarra River
and former wetlands entirely flooded, bringing the shoreline back to towns and suburbs such as; Kensington, Footscray, Altona North, Prahran, Elsternwick, Dingley, Dandenong South, Packenham South, Laverton and Lara. Areas completely inundated would include; much of the Bellarine Peninsula
and Swan Island, parts of Geelong, the Werribee Treatment Plant, all of Altona, Point Cook, Williamstown, West Melbourne, Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Elwood, Mordialloc, Braeside, Aspendale, Edithvale, Chelsea, Bonbeach, Carrum, Patterson Lakes, Seaford, Frankston North, Safety Beach and parts of Dromana, Rosebud, Rye, Blairgowrie and Sorrento.
A rise of 5-10m would also disrupt agriculture to the west of Port Phillip and around Geelong, increase the width of the Yarra River back to Hawthorn and the Maribyrnong River back to Avondale Heights. In addition, the MCG would be located precariously close to the wider Yarra River and be subject to flooding. Such a rise would displace roughly 200,000 people in metropolitan Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula, excluding Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula. A sea level rise of 15m would displace an additional 100,000.
would also be cut off. The rise would submerge the West Gate Freeway, CityLink tunnels, and the northern link of CityLink, rendering the West Gate and Bolte Bridges useless. Bridges over the Yarra & Maribyrnong in the CBD and inner Melbourne would be submerged. The main rail hubs of Flinders Street and Spencer Street (Southern Cross) and the city loop, could also potentially be submerged, cutting rail links between all the major metro rail lines.
and Brisbane Airport
would be at risk of inundation from a 1m rise. A sea level rise of 10m would almost completely flood Bribie Island. The Gold Coast
, being built on low lying land, particularly parts that were formerly wetlands, including many canal developments, are particularly at risk. A sea level rise of 10m would completely inundate the Gold Coast. New developments are required by law to have a minimum floor height 27 cm above the 100-year flood
storm height.
could be killed as a result of the rise in water temperature forecast by the IPCC. A UNESCO
World Heritage Site
, the reef has experienced unprecedented rates of bleaching over the past two decades, and additional warming of only 1°C is anticipated to cause considerable losses or contractions of species associated with coral communities.
could be killed as a result of the rise in water temperature forecast by the IPCC.
, Darling River
Coorong and Macquarie Marshes
are all at risk from decreased rainfall from climate change.
Climate change
Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in average weather conditions or the distribution of events around that average...
will negatively impact the continent's environment, economy, and communities. Australia has been designated as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change
Climate change in Australia
Climate change has become a major issue in Australia due to drastic climate events since the turn of the 21st century that have focused government and public attention. Rainfall in Australia has increased slightly over the past century, although there is little or no trend in rainfall in northeast...
, according to the Stern report and others, due partially to the importance of its agricultural
Agriculture
Agriculture is the cultivation of animals, plants, fungi and other life forms for food, fiber, and other products used to sustain life. Agriculture was the key implement in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created food surpluses that nurtured the...
sector and the prominence of its coast.
Australia is vulnerable to the effects of global warming
Effects of global warming
This article is about the effects of global warming and climate change. The effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or economic. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the...
projected for the next 50 to 100 years because of its extensive arid and semi-arid areas, high annual rainfall variability, and existing pressures on water supply. The continent's high fire risk increases this susceptibility to change in temperature and climate. Additionally, Australia's population is highly concentrated in coastal areas, and its important tourism industry depends on the health of the Great Barrier Reef
Great Barrier Reef
The Great Barrier Reef is the world'slargest reef system composed of over 2,900 individual reefs and 900 islands stretching for over 2,600 kilometres over an area of approximately...
and other fragile ecosystems. Impacts of climate change will be complex and to some degree uncertain, but increased foresight may enable the country to safeguard its future through planned mitigation
Mitigation of global warming
Climate change mitigation is action to decrease the intensity of radiative forcing in order to reduce the potential effects of global warming. Mitigation is distinguished from adaptation to global warming, which involves acting to tolerate the effects of global warming...
and adaptation
Adaptation to global warming
Adaptation to global warming and climate change is a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to climate change effects. Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, climate change and its effects will last many years, and adaptation will...
. Mitigation may reduce the ultimate extent of climate change and its impacts, but requires global solutions and cooperation, while adaptation can be performed at national and local levels.
Climate
Analysis of future emissions trajectories indicates that, left unchecked, human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) will increase several fold during the 21st century. Consequently, Australia’s annual average temperatures are projected to increase 0.4–2.0°C above 1990 levels by the year 2030, and 1–6°C by 2070. Average precipitation in southwest and southeast Australia is projected to decline during this time period, while regions such as the northwest may experience increases in rainfall. Meanwhile, Australia’s coastlines will experience erosion and inundation from an estimated 8–88 cm increase in global sea level. Such changes in climateClimate of Australia
The climate of Australia varies widely, but by far the largest part of Australia is desert or semi-arid – 40% of the landmass is covered by sand dunes. Only the south-east and south-west corners have a temperate climate and moderately fertile soil...
will have diverse implications for Australia’s environment, economy, and public health.
A 2007 technical report on climate change in Australia jointly published by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation is the national government body for scientific research in Australia...
(CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology provides climate change projections accounting for a number of variables, including temperature, rainfall, and others. The report provides assessment of observed Australian climate changes and causes, and projections for 2030 and 2070, under a range of emissions scenarios.
The Government of Australia acknowledges the impacts of changing climatic conditions, and its Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency has established the Australian Climate Change Science Program (ACCSP), which aims to understand the causes, nature, timing, and consequences of climate change so as to inform the Australian response. The ACCSP will dedicate $14.4 million per year towards climate change research and has already made substantial progress with a recent publication, Australian Climate Change Research: Perspectives on Successes, Challenges, and Future Directions.
Bush fires
Firefighting officials are concerned with the effects climate change will bring on the frequency and intensity of bushfiresBushfires in Australia
Bushfires in Australia are frequently occurring events during the hotter months of the year due to Australia's mostly hot, dry climate. Large areas of land are ravaged every year by bushfires, which also cause property damage and loss of life....
under even a "low global warming" scenario. A 2006 report, prepared by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Bushfire CRC, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, identified South Eastern Australia as one of the 3 most fire-prone areas in the world,, and concluded that an increase in fire-weather risk is likely at most sites over the next several decades, including the average number of days when the Forest Fire Danger Index rating is very high or extreme. It also found that the combined frequencies of days with very high and extreme FFDI ratings are likely to increase 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050, and that the increase in fire-weather risk is generally largest inland.
In 2009, the Black Saturday bushfires erupted after a period of record hot weather resulting in the loss of over 210 lives (as at 22 March 2009), the destruction of 1830 homes, and the newly found homelessness of over 7,000 people.
Extreme weather events
Globally, the World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization
The World Meteorological Organization is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 189 Member States and Territories. It originated from the International Meteorological Organization , which was founded in 1873...
has claimed that extreme weather events
Extreme weather
Extreme weather includes weather phenomena that are at the extremes of the historical distribution, especially severe or unseasonal weather. The most commonly used definition of extreme weather is based on an event's climatological distribution. Extreme weather occurs only 5% or less of the time...
are on the rise as a result of human interference in the climate system, and climate models indicate the potential for increases in extremes of temperature, precipitation, droughts, storms, and floods. The CSIRO predicts that a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius on the Australian continent could incur some of the following extreme weather occurrences, in addition to standard patterns:
- Wind speeds of tropical cycloneTropical cycloneA tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones strengthen when water evaporated from the ocean is released as the saturated air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor...
s could intensify by 5 to 10%. - Tropical cyclone rainfall could increase by 20-30%.
- In 100 years, strong tides would increase by 12-16% along eastern Victoria's coast.
- The forest fire danger index in NSW and WA would grow by 10%., and forest fire danger indexes in S, Central and NE Australia would increase more than 10
Projected large-scale singularities from climate change
There are a number of issues that could cause a range of direct and indirect consequences to many regions of the world, including Australia. These include large-scale singularities—sudden, potentially disastrous changes in ecosystems brought on gradual changes. The collapse of regional, or even global, coral reefCoral reef
Coral reefs are underwater structures made from calcium carbonate secreted by corals. Coral reefs are colonies of tiny living animals found in marine waters that contain few nutrients. Most coral reefs are built from stony corals, which in turn consist of polyps that cluster in groups. The polyps...
ecosystems is possibly the most significant potential large-scale singularity to Australia. Coral reef ecosystems have a narrow temperature range, meaning that they can rapidly change from being a healthy system to being stressed, bleached, or at worst, eradicated.
Ecosystem changes in other parts of the world could also have serious consequences for climate change for the Australian continent. Evidence from carbon cycle modeling suggests that the deaths of forests in tropical regions might increase the net concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by converting the terrestrial biosphere from a carbon sink to a source of .
Recently, scientists have expressed concern about the potential for climate change to destabilize the Greenland Ice Sheet
Greenland ice sheet
The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering , roughly 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is the second largest ice body in the world, after the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The ice sheet is almost long in a north-south direction, and its greatest width is at a latitude of 77°N, near its...
and West Antarctic Ice Sheet
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West Antarctica, the portion of Antarctica on the side of the Transantarctic Mountains which lies in the Western Hemisphere. The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well...
. An increase in global temperatures as well as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets (which causes an increase in the volume of freshwater flowing into the ocean), could threaten the balance of the global ocean thermohaline circulation
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation
Shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is a postulated effect of global warming.There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localised cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in...
(THC). Such deterioration could cause significant environmental and economic consequences through regional climate shifts in Australia and elsewhere, resulting from change in the global ocean circulation. Melting of glaciers and ice sheets also contributes to sea-level rise. Immense quantities of ice are held in the ice sheets of West Antarctica and Greenland, jointly containing the equivalent of approximately 12 meters of sea-level rise. Deterioration or breakdown of these ice sheets would lead to irreversible sea-level rise and coastal inundation across the globe.
The CSIRO predicts that additional singularities caused by a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees celsius will be:
- Beginning of effects on thermohaline circulation (THC). (
- Considerable decrease in THC.
- 20–25% decrease in THC.
- 5% possibility of significant change in THC.
- Threshold surpassed for breakdown of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
New projections for Australia's changing climate include:
- Increasingly regular droughts, especially in the southwest,
- Higher evaporation rates, specifically in the north and east,
- Intensifying high-fire-danger weather in the southeast,
- Continually rising sea levels.
Biodiversity and ecosystems
Australia has some of the world's most diverse ecosystems and natural habitats, and it may be this variety that makes them the Earth's most fragile and at-risk when exposed to climate change. The Great Barrier Reef is a prime example. Over the past 20 years it has experienced unparalleled rates of bleachingCoral bleaching
Coral bleaching is the loss of intracellular endosymbionts through either expulsion or loss of algal pigmentation.The corals that form the structure of the great reef ecosystems of tropical seas depend upon a symbiotic relationship with unicellular flagellate protozoa, called zooxanthellae, that...
. Additional warming of 1°C is expected to cause substantial losses of species and of associated coral communities.
The CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between 2 and 3 degrees celsius will be:
- 97% of the Great Barrier Reef bleached annually.
- 10–40% loss of principal habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species.
- 92% decrease in butterfly species’ primary habitats.
- 98% reduction in Bowerbird habitat in Northern AustraliaNorthern AustraliaThe term northern Australia is generally known to include two State and Territories, being Queensland and the Northern Territory . The part of Western Australia north of latitude 26° south—a definition widely used in law and State government policy—is also usually included...
. - 80% loss of freshwater wetlands in KakaduKakadu National ParkKakadu National Park is in the Northern Territory of Australia, 171 km southeast of Darwin.Kakadu National Park is located within the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory of Australia. It covers an area of , extending nearly 200 kilometres from north to south and over 100 kilometres...
(30 cm sea level rise).
Agriculture forestry and livestock
Small changes caused by global warming, such as a longer growing season, a more temperate climate and increased concentrations, may benefit Australian crop agriculture and forestry in the short term. However, such benefits are unlikely to be sustained with increasingly severe effects of global warming. Changes in precipitation and consequent water management problems will further exacerbate Australia's current water availability and quality challenges, both for commercial and residential use.The CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius will be:
- 32% possibility of diminished wheat production (without adaptation).
- 45% probability of wheat crop value being beneath present levels (without adaptation).
- 55% of primary habitat lost for Eucalyptus.
- 25–50% rise in common timber yield in cool and wet parts of S Australia.
- 25–50% reduction in common timber yield in North Queensland and the Top End.
- 6% decrease in Australian net primary production (for 20% precipitation decrease)
- 128% increase in tick associated losses in net cattle production weight.
Water Resources
Healthy and diverse vegetation is essential to river health and quality, and many of Australia’s most important catchments are covered by native forest, maintaining a healthy ecosystem. Climate change will affect growth, species composition and pest incursion of native species and in turn will profoundly affect water supply from these catchments. Increased re-afforestation in cleared catchments also has the prospect for water losses.
The CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between only 1 and 2 degrees Celsius will be:
- 12–25% reduction in flow in the Murray RiverMurray RiverThe Murray River is Australia's longest river. At in length, the Murray rises in the Australian Alps, draining the western side of Australia's highest mountains and, for most of its length, meanders across Australia's inland plains, forming the border between New South Wales and Victoria as it...
and Darling RiverDarling RiverThe Darling River is the third longest river in Australia, measuring from its source in northern New South Wales to its confluence with the Murray River at Wentworth, New South Wales. Including its longest contiguous tributaries it is long, making it the longest river system in Australia.The...
basin. - 7–35% reduction in MelbourneMelbourneMelbourne is the capital and most populous city in the state of Victoria, and the second most populous city in Australia. The Melbourne City Centre is the hub of the greater metropolitan area and the Census statistical division—of which "Melbourne" is the common name. As of June 2009, the greater...
’s water supply.
Public health
The CSIRO predicts that the additional results in Australia of a temperature rise of between only 1 and 2 degrees celsius will be:- Southward spread of malariaMalariaMalaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease of humans and other animals caused by eukaryotic protists of the genus Plasmodium. The disease results from the multiplication of Plasmodium parasites within red blood cells, causing symptoms that typically include fever and headache, in severe cases...
receptive zones. - Risk of dengue feverDengue feverDengue fever , also known as breakbone fever, is an infectious tropical disease caused by the dengue virus. Symptoms include fever, headache, muscle and joint pains, and a characteristic skin rash that is similar to measles...
among Australian's increases from 0.17 million people to 0.75-1.6 million. - 10% increase in diarrhoeal diseases among Aboriginal children in central Australia.
- 100% increase in number of people exposed to flooding in Australia and New Zealand.
- Increased influx of refugees from Pacific Islands..
Settlements and infrastructure
Global warming could lead to substantial alterations in climate extremes, such as tropical cyclones, heat waves and severe precipitation events. This would degrade infrastructure and rise costs through intensified energy demands, maintenance for damaged transportation infrastructure, and disasters, such as coastal flooding. In the coastal zone, sea level rise and storm surge may be more critical drivers of these changes than either temperature or precipitation.The CSIRO describes the additional impact on settlements and infrastructure for rises in temperature of only 1 to 2 degrees celsius:
- A 22% rise in 100 year storm surge height around Cairns; as a result the area flooded doubles.
- A 1% decrease in peak electricity demands in Melbourne and SydneySydneySydney is the most populous city in Australia and the state capital of New South Wales. Sydney is located on Australia's south-east coast of the Tasman Sea. As of June 2010, the greater metropolitan area had an approximate population of 4.6 million people...
. - 4-10% increase in peak electricity demands in AdelaideAdelaideAdelaide is the capital city of South Australia and the fifth-largest city in Australia. Adelaide has an estimated population of more than 1.2 million...
and BrisbaneBrisbaneBrisbane is the capital and most populous city in the Australian state of Queensland and the third most populous city in Australia. Brisbane's metropolitan area has a population of over 2 million, and the South East Queensland urban conurbation, centred around Brisbane, encompasses a population of...
. - 20% increase in methane from bush fires.
Human settlements
Climate change will have a higher impact on Australia's coastal communities, due to the concentration of population, commerce and industry. Climate modelling suggests that a temperature rise of 1-2°C will result in more intense storm winds, including those from tropical cyclones.(CSIRO (op cit)Coleman, T. (2002) The impact of climate change on insurance against catastrophes. Proceedings of Living with Climate Change Conference. Canberra, 19 December.) Combine this with sea level rise, and the result is greater flooding, due to higher levels of storm surge and wind speed.(CSIRO (op cit)Coleman, T. (2002) The impact of climate change on insurance against catastrophes. Proceedings of Living with Climate Change Conference. Canberra, 19 December.) Tourism of coastal areas may also be affected by coastal inundation and beach erosion, as a result of sea level rise and storm events. At higher levels of warming, coastal impacts become more severe with higher storm winds and sea levels.Property
A report released in October 2009 by the Standing Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts, studying the effects of a 1m sea level rise, possible within the next 30–60 years, concluded that around 700,000 properties around Australia, including 80,000 buildings, would be inundated, the collective value of these properties is estimated at $150billion.A 1m sea level rise would have massive impacts, not just on property and associated economic systems, but in displacement of human populations throughout the continent. Queensland is the most at risk state due to the presence of valuable beachfront housing.
Sydney
Suburbs of SydneySydney
Sydney is the most populous city in Australia and the state capital of New South Wales. Sydney is located on Australia's south-east coast of the Tasman Sea. As of June 2010, the greater metropolitan area had an approximate population of 4.6 million people...
like Manly
Manly, New South Wales
Manly is a suburb of northern Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Manly is located 17 kilometres north-east of the Sydney central business district and is the administrative centre of the local government area of Manly Council, in the Northern Beaches region.-History:Manly was named...
, Botany
Botany, New South Wales
Botany is a suburb in south-eastern Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Botany is located 10 kilometres south of the Sydney central business district and is part of the City of Botany Bay....
, Narrabeen, Port Botany, and Rockdale
Rockdale, New South Wales
Rockdale is a suburb in southern Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. Rockdale is located 13 kilometres south of the Sydney central business district and is part of the St George area...
, which lie on rivers like the Parramatta
Parramatta River
The Parramatta River is a waterway in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. The Parramatta River is the main tributary of Sydney Harbour, a branch of Port Jackson, along with the smaller Lane Cove and Duck Rivers....
, face risks of flooding in low lying areas such as parks (like Timbrell Park and Majors Bay Reserve), or massive expenses in rebuilding seawalls to higher levels.
Melbourne
Many suburbs of MelbourneMelbourne
Melbourne is the capital and most populous city in the state of Victoria, and the second most populous city in Australia. The Melbourne City Centre is the hub of the greater metropolitan area and the Census statistical division—of which "Melbourne" is the common name. As of June 2009, the greater...
are situated around Port Phillip
Port Phillip
Port Phillip Port Phillip Port Phillip (also commonly referred to as Port Phillip Bay or (locally) just The Bay, is a large bay in southern Victoria, Australia; it is the location of Melbourne. Geographically, the bay covers and the shore stretches roughly . Although it is extremely shallow for...
. A sea level rise of 1m would threaten the surrounding area, including suburban communities. It would also flood all of the city's major cargo shipping docks, surrounding cargo storage areas, the Docklands development and several marinas and berths in Port Phillip. A sea level rise of 1m would displace around 5-10,000 people and directly impact approximately 60-80,000 people in metropolitan Melbourne/Mornington Peninsula alone.
A sea level rise of 5-10m would see the CBD at the mouth of the Yarra River
Yarra River
The Yarra River, originally Birrarung, is a river in east-central Victoria, Australia. The lower stretches of the river is where the city of Melbourne was established in 1835 and today Greater Melbourne dominates and influences the landscape of its lower reaches...
and former wetlands entirely flooded, bringing the shoreline back to towns and suburbs such as; Kensington, Footscray, Altona North, Prahran, Elsternwick, Dingley, Dandenong South, Packenham South, Laverton and Lara. Areas completely inundated would include; much of the Bellarine Peninsula
Bellarine Peninsula
The Bellarine Peninsula is a peninsula located south-west of Melbourne in Victoria, Australia, surrounded by Port Phillip, Corio Bay and Bass Strait. The peninsula, together with the Mornington Peninsula separates Port Phillip from Bass Strait...
and Swan Island, parts of Geelong, the Werribee Treatment Plant, all of Altona, Point Cook, Williamstown, West Melbourne, Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Elwood, Mordialloc, Braeside, Aspendale, Edithvale, Chelsea, Bonbeach, Carrum, Patterson Lakes, Seaford, Frankston North, Safety Beach and parts of Dromana, Rosebud, Rye, Blairgowrie and Sorrento.
A rise of 5-10m would also disrupt agriculture to the west of Port Phillip and around Geelong, increase the width of the Yarra River back to Hawthorn and the Maribyrnong River back to Avondale Heights. In addition, the MCG would be located precariously close to the wider Yarra River and be subject to flooding. Such a rise would displace roughly 200,000 people in metropolitan Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula, excluding Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula. A sea level rise of 15m would displace an additional 100,000.
Transportation
A sea level rise of 1m would affect roadways near the coast and pose a threat to the Stony Point rail line and West Melbourne dock and cargo lines and yards. Whilst a rise of 5-10m would cut rail transport among the CBD and the western suburbs and between Melbourne and Geelong. Rail & freeway transportation to the Mornington PeninsulaMornington Peninsula
The Mornington Peninsula is a peninsula located south-east of Melbourne in Victoria, Australia. It is surrounded by Port Phillip to the west, Western Port to the east and Bass Strait to the south, and is connected to the mainland in the north. Geographically, the peninsula begins its protrusion...
would also be cut off. The rise would submerge the West Gate Freeway, CityLink tunnels, and the northern link of CityLink, rendering the West Gate and Bolte Bridges useless. Bridges over the Yarra & Maribyrnong in the CBD and inner Melbourne would be submerged. The main rail hubs of Flinders Street and Spencer Street (Southern Cross) and the city loop, could also potentially be submerged, cutting rail links between all the major metro rail lines.
Brisbane
The Port of BrisbanePort of Brisbane
Port of Brisbane is the shipping port of Brisbane, on the east coast of Australia. It is located in the lower reaches of the Brisbane River on reclaimed land that was once called Fisherman Islands at the mouth of the river. It currently is the third busiest port in Australia and the nation's...
and Brisbane Airport
Brisbane Airport
Brisbane Airport is the sole passenger airport serving Brisbane and the third busiest in Australia, after Melbourne and Sydney Airports. Brisbane Airport has won many awards. Located in the suburb with the same name, the airport serves the city of Brisbane and the surrounding metropolitan area...
would be at risk of inundation from a 1m rise. A sea level rise of 10m would almost completely flood Bribie Island. The Gold Coast
Gold Coast, Queensland
Gold Coast is a coastal city of Australia located in South East Queensland, 94km south of the state capital Brisbane. With a population approximately 540,000 in 2010, it is the second most populous city in the state, the sixth most populous city in the country, and also the most populous...
, being built on low lying land, particularly parts that were formerly wetlands, including many canal developments, are particularly at risk. A sea level rise of 10m would completely inundate the Gold Coast. New developments are required by law to have a minimum floor height 27 cm above the 100-year flood
100-year flood
A one-hundred-year flood is calculated to be the level of flood water expected to be equaled or exceeded every 100 years on average. The 100-year flood is more accurately referred to as the 1% annual exceedance probability flood, since it is a flood that has a 1% chance of being equaled or exceeded...
storm height.
Great Barrier Reef
The Great Barrier ReefGreat Barrier Reef
The Great Barrier Reef is the world'slargest reef system composed of over 2,900 individual reefs and 900 islands stretching for over 2,600 kilometres over an area of approximately...
could be killed as a result of the rise in water temperature forecast by the IPCC. A UNESCO
UNESCO
The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization is a specialized agency of the United Nations...
World Heritage Site
World Heritage Site
A UNESCO World Heritage Site is a place that is listed by the UNESCO as of special cultural or physical significance...
, the reef has experienced unprecedented rates of bleaching over the past two decades, and additional warming of only 1°C is anticipated to cause considerable losses or contractions of species associated with coral communities.
Lord Howe Island
The coral reefs of the World Heritage listed Lord Howe IslandLord Howe Island
Lord Howe Island is an irregularly crescent-shaped volcanic remnant in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, directly east of mainland Port Macquarie, and about from Norfolk Island. The island is about 11 km long and between 2.8 km and 0.6 km wide with an area of...
could be killed as a result of the rise in water temperature forecast by the IPCC.
Inland Waters
The Murray RiverMurray River
The Murray River is Australia's longest river. At in length, the Murray rises in the Australian Alps, draining the western side of Australia's highest mountains and, for most of its length, meanders across Australia's inland plains, forming the border between New South Wales and Victoria as it...
, Darling River
Darling River
The Darling River is the third longest river in Australia, measuring from its source in northern New South Wales to its confluence with the Murray River at Wentworth, New South Wales. Including its longest contiguous tributaries it is long, making it the longest river system in Australia.The...
Coorong and Macquarie Marshes
Macquarie Marshes
The Macquarie Marshes comprise the wetlands associated with the floodplains of the Macquarie River and its tributaries, in northern New South Wales, Australia. The Macquarie River and the marshes eventually drain into the Darling River...
are all at risk from decreased rainfall from climate change.
See also
- Adaptation to global warming in AustraliaAdaptation to global warming in Australia-Introduction:According to non-governmental organisations such as Greenpeace and global scientific organisations such as the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency and intensity of disasters brought about by greenhouse gas emissions and climate change will grow...
- Contribution to global warming by AustraliaContribution to global warming by Australia- Annual contribution :The Australian government estimates that Australia's net emissions in 2006 were 576 million tonnes -equivalent, to which the sectoral contributions were approximately as follows: energy sector, 70%; agriculture, 15%; other forms of land use, 7%; industrial processes 5%;...
- Effect of climate change on plant biodiversityEffect of climate change on plant biodiversityEnvironmental conditions play a key role in defining the function and distribution of plants, in combination with other factors. Changes in long term environmental conditions that can be collectively coined climate change are known to have had enormous impacts on plant diversity patterns in the...
- El Niño-Southern OscillationEl Niño-Southern OscillationEl Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years...
- IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment ReportClimate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for...
- Mitigation of global warming in AustraliaMitigation of global warming in AustraliaMitigation of global warming involves taking actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to enhance sinks aimed at reducing the extent of global warming. This is in distinction to adaptation to global warming, which involves taking action to minimise the effects of global warming...
- Physical impacts of climate changePhysical impacts of climate changeThis article is about the physical impacts of climate change. For some of these physical impacts, their effect on social and economic systems are also described.-Definition of climate change:This article refers to reports produced by the IPCC...
- Water restrictions in AustraliaWater restrictions in AustraliaWater restrictions have been enacted in many cities and regions in Australia, which is the Earth's driest inhabited continent, in response to chronic water shortages resulting from the drought. Depending upon the location, these can include restrictions on watering lawns, using sprinkler systems,...
External links
- http://www.garnautreview.org.au/CA25734E0016A131/WebObj/GarnautClimateChangeReviewInterimReport-Feb08/$File/Garnaut%20Climate%20Change%20Review%20Interim%20Report%20-%20Feb%2008.pdf Garnaut Climate Change Review Interim Report to the Commonwealth, State and Territory Governments of Australia, February, 2008. See table at p23 for summary of effects of global warming on Australia.
- http://www.csiro.au/files/files/p6fy.pdf "Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions". (2006) Detailed report by the CSIRO in on the effects of global warming on Australia, with details of likely changes for each degree of temperature increase over a wide range of areas, species, activities and infrastructure.
- Climate Positive - Not-for-profit Melbourne based group working to reduce and offset carbon emissions
- The economic impacts of deep cuts to Australia’s greenhouse emissions
- The Gore Factor: Reviewing the impact of An Inconvenient Truth
- Climate change threatening the Southern Ocean