Global Business Network
Encyclopedia
Global Business Network, or GBN, is a strategy consulting firm and member of Monitor Group
, that helps businesses, NGOs, and governments use scenario planning
to plan for multiple possible futures.
GBN was founded in Berkeley, California
in 1987 by a group of friends including Peter Schwartz
, Jay Ogilvy, Stewart Brand
, Napier Collyns
, and Lawrence Wilkinson
. The company grew to include a core group of "practice members", and over a hundred "network members," provocative thinkers from a diverse number of fields, such as social media expert Clay Shirky
, anthropologist Mary Catherine Bateson
, economist Aidan Eyakuze, musician Brian Eno
, biotechnologist Rob Carlson, and China scholar Orville Schell
. For its first 15 years, corporate clients would pay up to $40,000 annually in order to gain access to this network of advisers through a private website, attend meetings on emerging trends and training seminars, and receive a selection of literature about future issues each month.
GBN no longer offers this membership service, concentrating instead on scenario-based consulting and training.
Unlike forecasting
which extrapolates past and present trends to predict the future, scenario planning
is an interactive process for exploring alternative, plausible futures and what those might mean for strategies, policies, and decisions. Scenario planning was first used by the military in World War II
and then by Herman Kahn
at RAND
(“Thinking the Unthinkable”) during the Cold War
, before being adapted to inform corporate strategy by Pierre Wack
and other visionaries at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s. The key principles of scenario planning include thinking from the outside in about the forces in the contextual environment that are driving change, engaging multiple perspectives to identify and interpret those forces, and adopting a long view.
Before GBN, Peter Schwartz had been employed at SRI International as director of the Strategic Environment Center; following that, he took a position as head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, from 1982 to 1986, where he continued the pioneering work of Pierre Wack, in the field of scenario planning.
GBN is based in San Francisco, and has offices in New York City
, London
, and Cambridge, Massachusetts
. It has been a part of Monitor Group
since 2000.
Monitor Group
Monitor Group is a global management consulting firm headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States and with 27 offices in 26 major cities around the world. It provides strategy consultation services to the senior management of organizations and governments...
, that helps businesses, NGOs, and governments use scenario planning
Scenario planning
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.The original method was that a...
to plan for multiple possible futures.
GBN was founded in Berkeley, California
Berkeley, California
Berkeley is a city on the east shore of the San Francisco Bay in Northern California, United States. Its neighbors to the south are the cities of Oakland and Emeryville. To the north is the city of Albany and the unincorporated community of Kensington...
in 1987 by a group of friends including Peter Schwartz
Peter Schwartz (futurist)
Peter Schwartz is a futurist, author, and cofounder of the Global Business Network , an elite corporate strategy firm, specializing in future-think and scenario planning...
, Jay Ogilvy, Stewart Brand
Stewart Brand
Stewart Brand is an American writer, best known as editor of the Whole Earth Catalog. He founded a number of organizations including The WELL, the Global Business Network, and the Long Now Foundation...
, Napier Collyns
Napier Collyns
Napier Collyns is a co-founder and member of the Global Business Network. He is a former senior associate of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and the New York Mercantile Exchange....
, and Lawrence Wilkinson
Lawrence Wilkinson
Lawrence Wilkinson is Chairman of Heminge & Condell, a strategic advisory and investment firm, and Co-Founder of Global Business Network , where he helped pioneer the use of the scenario planning technique, now widely used by organizations in their strategic planning.Wilkinson has authored and...
. The company grew to include a core group of "practice members", and over a hundred "network members," provocative thinkers from a diverse number of fields, such as social media expert Clay Shirky
Clay Shirky
Clay Shirky is an American writer, consultant and teacher on the social and economic effects of Internet technologies. He has a joint appointment at New York University as a Distinguished Writer in Residence at the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute and Assistant Arts Professor in the New...
, anthropologist Mary Catherine Bateson
Mary Catherine Bateson
Mary Catherine Bateson is an American writer and cultural anthropologist.A graduate of the Brearley School, Bateson is the daughter of Margaret Mead and Gregory Bateson. Since 1960, she has been married to Barkev Kassarjian, a professor of business management at Babson College...
, economist Aidan Eyakuze, musician Brian Eno
Brian Eno
Brian Peter George St. John le Baptiste de la Salle Eno , commonly known as Brian Eno or simply as Eno , is an English musician, composer, record producer, singer and visual artist, known as one of the principal innovators of ambient music.Eno studied at Colchester Institute art school in Essex,...
, biotechnologist Rob Carlson, and China scholar Orville Schell
Orville Schell
Orville Hickock Schell III is an activist and writer working on China, and is the Arthus Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York...
. For its first 15 years, corporate clients would pay up to $40,000 annually in order to gain access to this network of advisers through a private website, attend meetings on emerging trends and training seminars, and receive a selection of literature about future issues each month.
GBN no longer offers this membership service, concentrating instead on scenario-based consulting and training.
Unlike forecasting
Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation for some variable of interest at some specified future date. Prediction is a similar, but more general term...
which extrapolates past and present trends to predict the future, scenario planning
Scenario planning
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.The original method was that a...
is an interactive process for exploring alternative, plausible futures and what those might mean for strategies, policies, and decisions. Scenario planning was first used by the military in World War II
World War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
and then by Herman Kahn
Herman Kahn
Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent futurists of the latter third of the twentieth century. In the early 1970s he predicted the rise of Japan as a major world power. He was a founder of the Hudson Institute think tank and originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems...
at RAND
RAND
RAND Corporation is a nonprofit global policy think tank first formed to offer research and analysis to the United States armed forces by Douglas Aircraft Company. It is currently financed by the U.S. government and private endowment, corporations including the healthcare industry, universities...
(“Thinking the Unthinkable”) during the Cold War
Cold War
The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States...
, before being adapted to inform corporate strategy by Pierre Wack
Pierre Wack
Pierre Wack was an unconventional French oil executive who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the 1970s...
and other visionaries at Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s. The key principles of scenario planning include thinking from the outside in about the forces in the contextual environment that are driving change, engaging multiple perspectives to identify and interpret those forces, and adopting a long view.
Before GBN, Peter Schwartz had been employed at SRI International as director of the Strategic Environment Center; following that, he took a position as head of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, from 1982 to 1986, where he continued the pioneering work of Pierre Wack, in the field of scenario planning.
GBN is based in San Francisco, and has offices in New York City
New York City
New York is the most populous city in the United States and the center of the New York Metropolitan Area, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York exerts a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education, and...
, London
London
London is the capital city of :England and the :United Kingdom, the largest metropolitan area in the United Kingdom, and the largest urban zone in the European Union by most measures. Located on the River Thames, London has been a major settlement for two millennia, its history going back to its...
, and Cambridge, Massachusetts
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Cambridge is a city in Middlesex County, Massachusetts, United States, in the Greater Boston area. It was named in honor of the University of Cambridge in England, an important center of the Puritan theology embraced by the town's founders. Cambridge is home to two of the world's most prominent...
. It has been a part of Monitor Group
Monitor Group
Monitor Group is a global management consulting firm headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States and with 27 offices in 26 major cities around the world. It provides strategy consultation services to the senior management of organizations and governments...
since 2000.