Hegemonic stability theory
Encyclopedia
Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST) is a theory of international relations
. Rooted in research from the fields of political science
, economics
, and history
, HST indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state
is the dominant world power, or hegemon. When a hegemon exercises leadership, either through diplomacy, coercion, or persuasion, it is actually deploying its "preponderance of power." This is called hegemony
, which refers to a state's ability to "single-handedly dominate the rules and arrangements ...[of] international political and economic relations."
Research on hegemony can be divided into two schools of thought: the realist school and the systemic school. Each school can be further sub-divided. Two dominant theories have emerged from each school. What Robert Keohane
first called the "theory of hegemonic stability," joins A. F. K. Organski's Power Transition Theory
as the two dominant approaches to the realist school of thought. Long Cycle Theory, espoused by George Modelski
, and World Systems Theory
, espoused by Immanuel Wallerstein
, have emerged as the two dominant approaches to the systemic school of thought.
Charles P. Kindleberger
is one of the scholars most closely associated with HST, and is even regarded by some as the father of HST. Kindleberger argued, in his 1973 book The World in Depression: 1929-1939, that the economic chaos between World War I
and World War II
that led to the Great Depression
, can be blamed in part on the lack of a world leader with a dominant economy. The theory is about more than economics though: the central idea behind HST is that the stability of the global system, in terms of politics, international law
, and so on, relies on the hegemon to develop and enforce the rules of the system.
In addition to Kindleberger, key figures in the development of hegemonic stability theory include Modelski
, Robert Gilpin
, Robert Keohane
, Stephen Krasner, and others.
In some cases, hegemons have not been insular or peninsular. However, the United States of America, for instance, has become a virtual island. First of all, it has two massive seaboards. Second, its neighbors are strong allies, and relatively reliable. Third, the modern invention of nuclear weapons, and the presence of a superior air force provide highly reliable security for the country, setting it apart from the rest of the world.
A suitable geopolitical situation is not the only requirement for hegemony.
Hegemons must first have the will to lead, and the will to establish a hegemonic regime.
Hegemons must also have the capability to lead, and the capability to enforce the rules of the system. After World War I, Great Britain possessed the will to lead, but lacked the necessary abilities to do so. Without the ability to force stability on the international system, Great Britain was able to do little to prevent the onset of the Great Depression or World War II.
Finally, hegemons must commit to the system, which needs to be perceived as mutually beneficial for other great powers and important state-actors.
When considering the capability of a state to serve as hegemon, three attributes are generally required.
Firstly, it is absolutely necessary that a hegemon have a large and growing economy. This is one reason many scholars, policy makers, and analysts think the People's Republic of China
will succeed the United States as hegemon. However, economic growth must be sustainable growth, and there is still concern about whether or not China can maintain its growth.
Secondly, a dominant economy is not generally enough. Usually, unrivaled supremacy in at least one leading economic or technological sector is necessary.
Lastly, a hegemon must have political strength, the ability to forge new international laws and organizations to support their regime, and a powerful military. The ability to promote international laws through political strength must be supported by projective military force. A standing or defensive army is not enough. A superior navy, or air force is.
Long cycles, or long waves, offer interesting perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with Simon Kuznets
' idea of long-cycles
, or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics.
The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands.". Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.
Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is anarchy
. Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger global system cycle. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants," anarchy simply doesn't play a role. After all, long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.
Modeslki used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cylces, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.
Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic Kondratieff Waves (or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II.
The traditional view of long cycle theory has evolved somewhat, as Modelski now suggests that Northern and Southern Sung China, Venice and Genoa were each the dominant economic powers during medieval long cycles. However, he does not classify any of these states as world powers. Only when Portugal gained hegemony after 1500 is that distinction made.
argue that the hegemon provides public goods through institutions and works in the best interests of everybody. It is motivated by ‘enlightened self-interest
’; the hegemon takes on the costs because it is good for all actors, thereby creating stability in the system, which is also in the interests of all actors. With the decline of the hegemon, institutions don't automatically die; instead, they take on a life of their own (see Regime Theory
).
as the ability of one party to affect outcomes such that their preferences take precedence over the preferences of other parties. The question of whether the U.S. is still a hegemon is tied into whether or not it has lost power.
Keohane sees power as tied into resources and production, and because US GDP is now lower relative to others, it implies a loss of power.
Although resources are an important determinant of power, they are not always determinative. For example, the German troops that conquered western Europe were actually fewer in number than their opponents. Susan Strange uses this logic to argue that the U.S. is still a hegemon.
One form of power that the U.S. possess is structural power. After the Exxon Valdez
accident, the US passed a domestic law commanding any oil delivery ship to have unlimited liability insurance. Even though most oil shipping companies are located overseas, they nevertheless complied with the law because the US is world’s largest market for oil. This non coercive or attractive form of power is key to Keohane and Nye's concept of Soft Power
.
In addition to structural power, the U.S. has many resources. It unilaterally helped Mexico
in the Peso Crisis
and unilaterally helped Russia
with economic aid. The United States has also 'persuaded' many countries to embrace the free market; through institutions such as the International Monetary Fund
, it pushed Latin American nations to undertake economic programs that Washington believed were necessary (see Washington Consensus
).
International relations
International relations is the study of relationships between countries, including the roles of states, inter-governmental organizations , international nongovernmental organizations , non-governmental organizations and multinational corporations...
. Rooted in research from the fields of political science
Political science
Political Science is a social science discipline concerned with the study of the state, government and politics. Aristotle defined it as the study of the state. It deals extensively with the theory and practice of politics, and the analysis of political systems and political behavior...
, economics
Economics
Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Ancient Greek from + , hence "rules of the house"...
, and history
History
History is the discovery, collection, organization, and presentation of information about past events. History can also mean the period of time after writing was invented. Scholars who write about history are called historians...
, HST indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state
Nation-state
The nation state is a state that self-identifies as deriving its political legitimacy from serving as a sovereign entity for a nation as a sovereign territorial unit. The state is a political and geopolitical entity; the nation is a cultural and/or ethnic entity...
is the dominant world power, or hegemon. When a hegemon exercises leadership, either through diplomacy, coercion, or persuasion, it is actually deploying its "preponderance of power." This is called hegemony
Hegemony
Hegemony is an indirect form of imperial dominance in which the hegemon rules sub-ordinate states by the implied means of power rather than direct military force. In Ancient Greece , hegemony denoted the politico–military dominance of a city-state over other city-states...
, which refers to a state's ability to "single-handedly dominate the rules and arrangements ...[of] international political and economic relations."
Research on hegemony can be divided into two schools of thought: the realist school and the systemic school. Each school can be further sub-divided. Two dominant theories have emerged from each school. What Robert Keohane
Robert Keohane
Robert O. Keohane is an American academic, who, following the publication of his influential book After Hegemony , became widely associated with the theory of neoliberal institutionalism in international relations...
first called the "theory of hegemonic stability," joins A. F. K. Organski's Power Transition Theory
Power Transition theory
The Power transition theory is a theory about the cyclical nature of war, in relation to the power in international relations.Created by A.F.K. Organski, and originally published in his textbook, World Politics , power transition theory today describes international politics as a hierarchy, with 4...
as the two dominant approaches to the realist school of thought. Long Cycle Theory, espoused by George Modelski
George Modelski
George Modelski is Professor of Political Science Emeritus in the University of Washington. Modelski has done work on long-term processes in global politics and economics, as well as the world urban macrodynamics and world system evolution.-Books:*Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling...
, and World Systems Theory
World Systems Theory
The world-systems theory is a multidisciplinary, macro-scale approach to world history and social change....
, espoused by Immanuel Wallerstein
Immanuel Wallerstein
Immanuel Maurice Wallerstein is a US sociologist, historical social scientist, and world-systems analyst...
, have emerged as the two dominant approaches to the systemic school of thought.
Charles P. Kindleberger
Charles P. Kindleberger
Charles Poor "Charlie" Kindleberger was a historical economist and author of over 30 books. His 1978 book Manias, Panics, and Crashes, about speculative stock market bubbles, was reprinted in 2000 after the dot-com bubble. He is well known for hegemonic stability theory.-Life:Kindleberger was born...
is one of the scholars most closely associated with HST, and is even regarded by some as the father of HST. Kindleberger argued, in his 1973 book The World in Depression: 1929-1939, that the economic chaos between World War I
World War I
World War I , which was predominantly called the World War or the Great War from its occurrence until 1939, and the First World War or World War I thereafter, was a major war centred in Europe that began on 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918...
and World War II
World War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
that led to the Great Depression
Great Depression
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s...
, can be blamed in part on the lack of a world leader with a dominant economy. The theory is about more than economics though: the central idea behind HST is that the stability of the global system, in terms of politics, international law
International law
Public international law concerns the structure and conduct of sovereign states; analogous entities, such as the Holy See; and intergovernmental organizations. To a lesser degree, international law also may affect multinational corporations and individuals, an impact increasingly evolving beyond...
, and so on, relies on the hegemon to develop and enforce the rules of the system.
In addition to Kindleberger, key figures in the development of hegemonic stability theory include Modelski
George Modelski
George Modelski is Professor of Political Science Emeritus in the University of Washington. Modelski has done work on long-term processes in global politics and economics, as well as the world urban macrodynamics and world system evolution.-Books:*Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling...
, Robert Gilpin
Robert Gilpin
Robert Gilpin is a scholar of International Political Economy and the professor emeritus of Politics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. He holds the Eisenhower professorship...
, Robert Keohane
Robert Keohane
Robert O. Keohane is an American academic, who, following the publication of his influential book After Hegemony , became widely associated with the theory of neoliberal institutionalism in international relations...
, Stephen Krasner, and others.
Hegemonic Rise
In order for a nation-state to rise to the level of hegemon, it must first have reliable geopolitical security. Many hegemons have been geographically situated on peninsulas or islands. Peninsularity and insularity provide added security, and, where naval power is necessary, the ability to project military forces.In some cases, hegemons have not been insular or peninsular. However, the United States of America, for instance, has become a virtual island. First of all, it has two massive seaboards. Second, its neighbors are strong allies, and relatively reliable. Third, the modern invention of nuclear weapons, and the presence of a superior air force provide highly reliable security for the country, setting it apart from the rest of the world.
A suitable geopolitical situation is not the only requirement for hegemony.
Hegemons must first have the will to lead, and the will to establish a hegemonic regime.
Hegemons must also have the capability to lead, and the capability to enforce the rules of the system. After World War I, Great Britain possessed the will to lead, but lacked the necessary abilities to do so. Without the ability to force stability on the international system, Great Britain was able to do little to prevent the onset of the Great Depression or World War II.
Finally, hegemons must commit to the system, which needs to be perceived as mutually beneficial for other great powers and important state-actors.
When considering the capability of a state to serve as hegemon, three attributes are generally required.
Firstly, it is absolutely necessary that a hegemon have a large and growing economy. This is one reason many scholars, policy makers, and analysts think the People's Republic of China
People's Republic of China
China , officially the People's Republic of China , is the most populous country in the world, with over 1.3 billion citizens. Located in East Asia, the country covers approximately 9.6 million square kilometres...
will succeed the United States as hegemon. However, economic growth must be sustainable growth, and there is still concern about whether or not China can maintain its growth.
Secondly, a dominant economy is not generally enough. Usually, unrivaled supremacy in at least one leading economic or technological sector is necessary.
Lastly, a hegemon must have political strength, the ability to forge new international laws and organizations to support their regime, and a powerful military. The ability to promote international laws through political strength must be supported by projective military force. A standing or defensive army is not enough. A superior navy, or air force is.
Competing Theories of Hegemonic Stability
Hegemony is an important aspect of international relations. Various schools of thought and theories have emerged in an attempt to better understand hegemonic actors and their influence.The Systemic School of Thought
According to Thomas J. McCormick, scholars and other experts on the systemic school define hegemony "as a single power's possession of 'simultaneous superior economic efficiency in production, trade and finance.'" Furthermore, a hegemon's superior position is considered the logical consequence of superior geography, technological innovation, ideology, superior resources, and other factors.Long Cycle Theory
George Modelski, who presented his ideas in the book, Long Cycles in World Politics (1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. In a nut shell, long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.Long cycles, or long waves, offer interesting perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with Simon Kuznets
Simon Kuznets
Simon Smith Kuznets was a Russian American economist at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who won the 1971 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences "for his empirically founded interpretation of economic growth which has led to new and deepened insight into the economic and...
' idea of long-cycles
Long-cycles
There has been some confusion between the terms long-cycle and long-waves. Long-waves date back to Nikolai Kondratieff, the Russian economist whose name now represents the cycles that he expounded on, that is the Kondratieff Waves. Long-cycles properly belongs to Simon Kuznets, the second American...
, or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics.
The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands.". Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.
Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is anarchy
Anarchy
Anarchy , has more than one colloquial definition. In the United States, the term "anarchy" typically is meant to refer to a society which lacks publicly recognized government or violently enforced political authority...
. Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger global system cycle. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants," anarchy simply doesn't play a role. After all, long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.
Modeslki used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cylces, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.
Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic Kondratieff Waves (or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II.
The traditional view of long cycle theory has evolved somewhat, as Modelski now suggests that Northern and Southern Sung China, Venice and Genoa were each the dominant economic powers during medieval long cycles. However, he does not classify any of these states as world powers. Only when Portugal gained hegemony after 1500 is that distinction made.
The Neorealist Interpretation of Hegemony
Neorealists have been focusing on this theory recently, the main proponent of it being John J. Mearsheimer who is trying to incorporate it into 'offensive realism' . In his book 'The Tragedy of Great Power Politics' Mearsheimer outlines how the anarachic system that neorealists subscribe to (see Kenneth Waltz for original theory) creates power hungry states who will each attempt to install themselves as regional and global hegemons. . His theory is not widely embraced by fellow realists who argue that the hegemon supports the system so long as it is in their interests. The system is created, shaped and maintained by coercion. The hegemon would begin to undermine the institution when it is not in their interests. With the decline of a hegemon, the system descends into instability. Other realists argue that the anarachic system does not actually give causal motivation to aid the creation of hegemons.The Neoliberal Interpretation of Hegemony
NeoliberalsNeoliberalism
Neoliberalism is a market-driven approach to economic and social policy based on neoclassical theories of economics that emphasizes the efficiency of private enterprise, liberalized trade and relatively open markets, and therefore seeks to maximize the role of the private sector in determining the...
argue that the hegemon provides public goods through institutions and works in the best interests of everybody. It is motivated by ‘enlightened self-interest
Enlightened self-interest
Enlightened self-interest is a philosophy in ethics which states that persons who act to further the interests of others , ultimately serve their own self-interest....
’; the hegemon takes on the costs because it is good for all actors, thereby creating stability in the system, which is also in the interests of all actors. With the decline of the hegemon, institutions don't automatically die; instead, they take on a life of their own (see Regime Theory
Regime theory
Regime theory is a theory within international relations derived from the liberal tradition that argues that international institutions or regimes affect the behavior of states...
).
Is the U.S. still a hegemon?
Hegemony demands power, which is defined by Susan StrangeSusan Strange
Susan Strange was a British academic who was influential in the field of International Political Economy. Her most important publications include Casino Capitalism, Mad Money, States and Markets and The Retreat of the State : The Diffusion of Power in the World Economy.For a quarter of a century,...
as the ability of one party to affect outcomes such that their preferences take precedence over the preferences of other parties. The question of whether the U.S. is still a hegemon is tied into whether or not it has lost power.
Keohane sees power as tied into resources and production, and because US GDP is now lower relative to others, it implies a loss of power.
Although resources are an important determinant of power, they are not always determinative. For example, the German troops that conquered western Europe were actually fewer in number than their opponents. Susan Strange uses this logic to argue that the U.S. is still a hegemon.
One form of power that the U.S. possess is structural power. After the Exxon Valdez
Exxon Valdez
Oriental Nicety, formerly Exxon Valdez, Exxon Mediterranean, SeaRiver Mediterranean, S/R Mediterranean, Mediterranean, and Dong Fang Ocean is an oil tanker that gained notoriety after running aground in Prince William Sound spilling hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil in Alaska...
accident, the US passed a domestic law commanding any oil delivery ship to have unlimited liability insurance. Even though most oil shipping companies are located overseas, they nevertheless complied with the law because the US is world’s largest market for oil. This non coercive or attractive form of power is key to Keohane and Nye's concept of Soft Power
Soft power
Soft power is the ability to obtain what one wants through co-option and attraction. It can be contrasted with 'hard power', that is the use of coercion and payment...
.
In addition to structural power, the U.S. has many resources. It unilaterally helped Mexico
Mexico
The United Mexican States , commonly known as Mexico , is a federal constitutional republic in North America. It is bordered on the north by the United States; on the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; on the southeast by Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean Sea; and on the east by the Gulf of...
in the Peso Crisis
1994 economic crisis in Mexico
The 1994 Economic Crisis in Mexico, widely known as the Mexican peso crisis, was caused by the sudden devaluation of the Mexican peso in December 1994....
and unilaterally helped Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
with economic aid. The United States has also 'persuaded' many countries to embrace the free market; through institutions such as the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world...
, it pushed Latin American nations to undertake economic programs that Washington believed were necessary (see Washington Consensus
Washington Consensus
The term Washington Consensus was coined in 1989 by the economist John Williamson to describe a set of ten relatively specific economic policy prescriptions that he considered constituted the "standard" reform package promoted for crisis-wracked developing countries...
).