Iraq Intelligence Commission
Encyclopedia
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
in February 2004. The impetus for the Commission lay with a public controversy occasioned by statements, including those of Chief of the Iraq Survey Group
Iraq Survey Group
The Iraq Survey Group was a fact-finding mission sent by the multinational force in Iraq after the 2003 invasion of Iraq to find the alleged weapons of mass destruction alleged to be possessed by Iraq that had been the main ostensible reason for the invasion. Its final report is commonly called...
, David Kay
David Kay
Dr. David A. Kay is best known for heading the Iraq Survey Group and acting as a Weapons inspector in Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion.-Education:...
, that the Intelligence Community had grossly erred in judging that Iraq had been developing WMD before the March 2003 start of Operation Iraqi Freedom. President Bush therefore formed the Commission, but gave it a broad mandate not only to look into any errors behind the Iraq intelligence, but also to look into intelligence on WMD programs in Afghanistan and Libya, as well as to examine the capabilities of the Intelligence Community to address the problem of WMD proliferation and "related threats." The Commission, following intense study of the Intelligence Community, delivered its report to the President on March 31, 2005.
Findings
Regarding Iraq, the Commission concluded that the Intelligence Community was wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and that this constituted a major intelligence failureIntelligence Failure
Intelligence Failure is the eighth studio album of the actor Viggo Mortensen and seventh with the avant-garde guitarist Buckethead, released on 2005. The album combines traditional and original compositions, as well as clips of public speeches, most notably of George W. Bush and members of his...
.
The Commission's report described systemic analytical, collection, and dissemination flaws that led to the intelligence community's erroneous assessments about Iraq's alleged WMD programs. Chief among these flaws were "an analytical process that was driven by assumptions and inferences rather than data", failures by certain agencies to gather all relevant information and analyze fully information on purported centrifuge tubes, insufficient vetting of key sources, particularly the source "Curveball," and somewhat overheated presentation of data to policymakers.
The 601-page document detailed many U.S. intelligence failures and identified intelligence breakdowns in dozens of cases. Some of the conclusions reached by the report were:
- the report notes in several places that the commission's mandate did not allow it "to investigate how policy makers used the intelligence they received from the Intelligence Community on Iraq's weapons programs,"
- One of the main and crucial intelligence sources for the case for regime change in Iraq was an informant named CurveballCurveball (informant)Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi , known by the Central Intelligence Agency cryptonym "Curveball", is an Iraqi citizen who defected from Iraq in 1999, claiming that he had worked as a chemical engineer at a plant that manufactured mobile biological weapon laboratories as part of an Iraqi weapons of mass...
. Curveball had never been interviewed by American intelligence until after the war and was instead handled exclusively by the German Intelligence AgenciesGermanyGermany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
which regarded his statements as unconvincing. An October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iraq "has" biological weapons was "based almost exclusively on information obtained" from Curveball, according to the report.
- Information about aluminum tubes to be used as centrifuges in a nuclear weapons program were found by the commission to be used for conventional rockets.
- The Niger Yellowcake scandal was due to American intelligence believing "transparently forged documents" purporting to show a contract between the countries. There were "flaws in the letterhead, forged signatures, misspelled words, incorrect titles for individuals and government entities".
- While there were many reports that Curveball was actually the cousin of one of Ahmed ChalabiAhmed ChalabiAhmed Abdel Hadi Chalabi is an Iraqi politician. He was interim oil minister in Iraq in April-May 2005 and December-January 2006 and deputy prime minister from May 2005 until May 2006. Chalabi failed to win a seat in parliament in the December 2005 elections, and when the new Iraqi cabinet was...
's Iraqi National Congress (INC)Iraqi National CongressThe Iraqi National Congress is an umbrella Iraqi opposition group led by Ahmed Chalabi. It was formed with the aid and direction of the United States government following the Gulf War, for the purpose of fomenting the overthrow of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.-History:INC was set up following the...
top aides. Bush's investigative report while discovering that at least two INC defectors were fabricators, but said it was "unable to uncover any evidence that the INC or any other organization was directing Curveball."
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
in February 2004. The impetus for the Commission lay with a public controversy occasioned by statements, including those of Chief of the Iraq Survey Group
Iraq Survey Group
The Iraq Survey Group was a fact-finding mission sent by the multinational force in Iraq after the 2003 invasion of Iraq to find the alleged weapons of mass destruction alleged to be possessed by Iraq that had been the main ostensible reason for the invasion. Its final report is commonly called...
, David Kay
David Kay
Dr. David A. Kay is best known for heading the Iraq Survey Group and acting as a Weapons inspector in Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion.-Education:...
, that the Intelligence Community had grossly erred in judging that Iraq had been developing WMD before the March 2003 start of Operation Iraqi Freedom. President Bush therefore formed the Commission, but gave it a broad mandate not only to look into any errors behind the Iraq intelligence, but also to look into intelligence on WMD programs in Afghanistan and Libya, as well as to examine the capabilities of the Intelligence Community to address the problem of WMD proliferation and "related threats." The Commission, following intense study of the Intelligence Community, delivered its report to the President on March 31, 2005.
Findings
Regarding Iraq, the Commission concluded that the Intelligence Community was wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and that this constituted a major intelligence failureIntelligence Failure
Intelligence Failure is the eighth studio album of the actor Viggo Mortensen and seventh with the avant-garde guitarist Buckethead, released on 2005. The album combines traditional and original compositions, as well as clips of public speeches, most notably of George W. Bush and members of his...
.
The Commission's report described systemic analytical, collection, and dissemination flaws that led to the intelligence community's erroneous assessments about Iraq's alleged WMD programs. Chief among these flaws were "an analytical process that was driven by assumptions and inferences rather than data", failures by certain agencies to gather all relevant information and analyze fully information on purported centrifuge tubes, insufficient vetting of key sources, particularly the source "Curveball," and somewhat overheated presentation of data to policymakers.
The 601-page document detailed many U.S. intelligence failures and identified intelligence breakdowns in dozens of cases. Some of the conclusions reached by the report were:
- the report notes in several places that the commission's mandate did not allow it "to investigate how policy makers used the intelligence they received from the Intelligence Community on Iraq's weapons programs,"
- One of the main and crucial intelligence sources for the case for regime change in Iraq was an informant named CurveballCurveball (informant)Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi , known by the Central Intelligence Agency cryptonym "Curveball", is an Iraqi citizen who defected from Iraq in 1999, claiming that he had worked as a chemical engineer at a plant that manufactured mobile biological weapon laboratories as part of an Iraqi weapons of mass...
. Curveball had never been interviewed by American intelligence until after the war and was instead handled exclusively by the German Intelligence AgenciesGermanyGermany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
which regarded his statements as unconvincing. An October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iraq "has" biological weapons was "based almost exclusively on information obtained" from Curveball, according to the report.
- Information about aluminum tubes to be used as centrifuges in a nuclear weapons program were found by the commission to be used for conventional rockets.
- The Niger Yellowcake scandal was due to American intelligence believing "transparently forged documents" purporting to show a contract between the countries. There were "flaws in the letterhead, forged signatures, misspelled words, incorrect titles for individuals and government entities".
- While there were many reports that Curveball was actually the cousin of one of Ahmed ChalabiAhmed ChalabiAhmed Abdel Hadi Chalabi is an Iraqi politician. He was interim oil minister in Iraq in April-May 2005 and December-January 2006 and deputy prime minister from May 2005 until May 2006. Chalabi failed to win a seat in parliament in the December 2005 elections, and when the new Iraqi cabinet was...
's Iraqi National Congress (INC)Iraqi National CongressThe Iraqi National Congress is an umbrella Iraqi opposition group led by Ahmed Chalabi. It was formed with the aid and direction of the United States government following the Gulf War, for the purpose of fomenting the overthrow of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.-History:INC was set up following the...
top aides. Bush's investigative report while discovering that at least two INC defectors were fabricators, but said it was "unable to uncover any evidence that the INC or any other organization was directing Curveball."
George W. Bush
George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000....
in February 2004. The impetus for the Commission lay with a public controversy occasioned by statements, including those of Chief of the Iraq Survey Group
Iraq Survey Group
The Iraq Survey Group was a fact-finding mission sent by the multinational force in Iraq after the 2003 invasion of Iraq to find the alleged weapons of mass destruction alleged to be possessed by Iraq that had been the main ostensible reason for the invasion. Its final report is commonly called...
, David Kay
David Kay
Dr. David A. Kay is best known for heading the Iraq Survey Group and acting as a Weapons inspector in Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion.-Education:...
, that the Intelligence Community had grossly erred in judging that Iraq had been developing WMD before the March 2003 start of Operation Iraqi Freedom. President Bush therefore formed the Commission, but gave it a broad mandate not only to look into any errors behind the Iraq intelligence, but also to look into intelligence on WMD programs in Afghanistan and Libya, as well as to examine the capabilities of the Intelligence Community to address the problem of WMD proliferation and "related threats." The Commission, following intense study of the Intelligence Community, delivered its report to the President on March 31, 2005.
Findings
Regarding Iraq, the Commission concluded that the Intelligence Community was wrong in almost all of its pre-war judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and that this constituted a major intelligence failureIntelligence Failure
Intelligence Failure is the eighth studio album of the actor Viggo Mortensen and seventh with the avant-garde guitarist Buckethead, released on 2005. The album combines traditional and original compositions, as well as clips of public speeches, most notably of George W. Bush and members of his...
.
The Commission's report described systemic analytical, collection, and dissemination flaws that led to the intelligence community's erroneous assessments about Iraq's alleged WMD programs. Chief among these flaws were "an analytical process that was driven by assumptions and inferences rather than data", failures by certain agencies to gather all relevant information and analyze fully information on purported centrifuge tubes, insufficient vetting of key sources, particularly the source "Curveball," and somewhat overheated presentation of data to policymakers.
The 601-page document detailed many U.S. intelligence failures and identified intelligence breakdowns in dozens of cases. Some of the conclusions reached by the report were:
- the report notes in several places that the commission's mandate did not allow it "to investigate how policy makers used the intelligence they received from the Intelligence Community on Iraq's weapons programs,"
- One of the main and crucial intelligence sources for the case for regime change in Iraq was an informant named CurveballCurveball (informant)Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi , known by the Central Intelligence Agency cryptonym "Curveball", is an Iraqi citizen who defected from Iraq in 1999, claiming that he had worked as a chemical engineer at a plant that manufactured mobile biological weapon laboratories as part of an Iraqi weapons of mass...
. Curveball had never been interviewed by American intelligence until after the war and was instead handled exclusively by the German Intelligence AgenciesGermanyGermany , officially the Federal Republic of Germany , is a federal parliamentary republic in Europe. The country consists of 16 states while the capital and largest city is Berlin. Germany covers an area of 357,021 km2 and has a largely temperate seasonal climate...
which regarded his statements as unconvincing. An October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iraq "has" biological weapons was "based almost exclusively on information obtained" from Curveball, according to the report.
- Information about aluminum tubes to be used as centrifuges in a nuclear weapons program were found by the commission to be used for conventional rockets.
- The Niger Yellowcake scandal was due to American intelligence believing "transparently forged documents" purporting to show a contract between the countries. There were "flaws in the letterhead, forged signatures, misspelled words, incorrect titles for individuals and government entities".
- While there were many reports that Curveball was actually the cousin of one of Ahmed ChalabiAhmed ChalabiAhmed Abdel Hadi Chalabi is an Iraqi politician. He was interim oil minister in Iraq in April-May 2005 and December-January 2006 and deputy prime minister from May 2005 until May 2006. Chalabi failed to win a seat in parliament in the December 2005 elections, and when the new Iraqi cabinet was...
's Iraqi National Congress (INC)Iraqi National CongressThe Iraqi National Congress is an umbrella Iraqi opposition group led by Ahmed Chalabi. It was formed with the aid and direction of the United States government following the Gulf War, for the purpose of fomenting the overthrow of Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.-History:INC was set up following the...
top aides. Bush's investigative report while discovering that at least two INC defectors were fabricators, but said it was "unable to uncover any evidence that the INC or any other organization was directing Curveball."
Recommendations
The report also looked forward, recommending a large number of organizational and structural reforms. Of 74 recommendations to the President, he fully accepted 69 in a public statement released on June 29, 2005.The commission's mission is, in part, "to ensure the most effective counter-proliferation capabilities of the United States and response to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the ongoing threat of terrorist activity." With regard to Iraq
Iraq
Iraq ; officially the Republic of Iraq is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert....
, the commission was meant to "specifically examine the Intelligence Community's intelligence prior
National Intelligence Estimate
National Intelligence Estimates are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence on intelligence related to a particular national security issue...
to the initiation of Operation Iraqi Freedom and compare it with the findings of the Iraq Survey Group
Iraq Survey Group
The Iraq Survey Group was a fact-finding mission sent by the multinational force in Iraq after the 2003 invasion of Iraq to find the alleged weapons of mass destruction alleged to be possessed by Iraq that had been the main ostensible reason for the invasion. Its final report is commonly called...
and other relevant agencies or organizations concerning the capabilities, intentions, and activities of Iraq relating to the design, development, manufacture, acquisition, possession, proliferation, transfer, testing, potential or threatened use, or use of Weapons of Mass Destruction and related means of delivery."
Commission members
Commission members are:- Laurence Silberman, Republican, retired U.S. Court of Appeals judge, Deputy Attorney General under Presidents Nixon and Ford, Ambassador to Yugoslavia, et al., co-Chairman
- Charles Robb, Democrat, former U.S. Senator from and Governor of VirginiaVirginiaThe Commonwealth of Virginia , is a U.S. state on the Atlantic Coast of the Southern United States. Virginia is nicknamed the "Old Dominion" and sometimes the "Mother of Presidents" after the eight U.S. presidents born there...
, co-Chairman - John McCainJohn McCainJohn Sidney McCain III is the senior United States Senator from Arizona. He was the Republican nominee for president in the 2008 United States election....
, Republican, U.S. Senator from Arizona - Lloyd CutlerLloyd CutlerLloyd Norton Cutler was an American attorney, who served as White House Counsel during the Democratic administrations of Presidents Carter and Clinton. He was also the trainer of the former Vice President of the European Parliament and current Minister of Foreign Affairs of Greece, M.P...
, Democrat, former White House counsel to Presidents Jimmy CarterJimmy CarterJames Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr. is an American politician who served as the 39th President of the United States and was the recipient of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, the only U.S. President to have received the Prize after leaving office...
and Bill ClintonBill ClintonWilliam Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation...
. Cutler changed status to "Of CounselOf counselOf counsel is often the title of an attorney who is employed by a law firm or an organization, but is not an associate or a partner. Some firms use titles like "counsel," "special counsel," and "senior counsel" for the same concept...
" shortly after the Commission formed. - Patricia WaldPatricia WaldPatricia McGowan Wald is an American judge. Wald served as the chief judge for the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit and served as a judge on the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia.Wald graduated from Connecticut College in 1948 and earned...
, Democrat, retired Judge of the DC Court of Appeals. - Rick Levin, President of Yale UniversityYale UniversityYale University is a private, Ivy League university located in New Haven, Connecticut, United States. Founded in 1701 in the Colony of Connecticut, the university is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States...
. - Retired Admiral Bill StudemanBill StudemanWilliam Oliver Studeman is a retired Admiral of the United States Navy and former Deputy Director of the United States' Central Intelligence Agency, with two extended periods as Acting Director of Central Intelligence. As Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, he served in both the George H. W...
, former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, Director of NSA. - Charles M. Vest, former President of MITMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyThe Massachusetts Institute of Technology is a private research university located in Cambridge, Massachusetts. MIT has five schools and one college, containing a total of 32 academic departments, with a strong emphasis on scientific and technological education and research.Founded in 1861 in...
- Henry S. Rowen, former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, and President of RAND.
The first seven members of the panel were appointed on February 6, 2004, the date of the executive order which created it. The two final members, Vest and Rowen, were appointed on February 13.
Days before the American commission was announced, the government of the United Kingdom
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
, the U.S.'s primary ally during the Iraq War, announced a similar commission to investigate British intelligence, known as the Butler Inquiry.
The commission was independent and separate from the 9-11 Commission.
See also
- Iraq Study GroupIraq Study GroupThe Iraq Study group , was a ten-person bipartisan panel appointed on March 15, 2006, by the United States Congress, that was charged with assessing the situation in Iraq and the US-led Iraq War and making policy recommendations...
- Iraq Survey GroupIraq Survey GroupThe Iraq Survey Group was a fact-finding mission sent by the multinational force in Iraq after the 2003 invasion of Iraq to find the alleged weapons of mass destruction alleged to be possessed by Iraq that had been the main ostensible reason for the invasion. Its final report is commonly called...
- Office of Special PlansOffice of Special PlansThe Office of Special Plans , which existed from September 2002 to June 2003, was a Pentagon unit created by Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas Feith, and headed by Feith, as charged by then-United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, to supply senior George W. Bush administration officials with...
- Operation RockinghamOperation RockinghamOperation Rockingham was the codeword for UK involvement in inspections in Iraq following the war over Kuwait in 1990-91. Early in 1991 the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq was established to oversee the destruction of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction...
- Commission on the Prevention of WMD proliferation and terrorismCommission on the Prevention of WMD proliferation and terrorismThe Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism was set up "to assess, within 180 days, any and all of the nation's activities, initiatives, and programs to prevent weapons of mass destruction proliferation and terrorism." The Graham/Talent WMD...
- Weapons of Mass Destruction CommissionWeapons of Mass Destruction CommissionThe Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission is established on an initiative by the late Foreign Minister of Sweden, Anna Lindh, acting on a proposal by then United Nations Under-Secretary-General Jayantha Dhanapala. The Swedish Government invited Dr. Hans Blix to set up and chair the Commission...
External links
- Unclassified Version of the Report of the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Text of Executive Order (whitehouse.gov)
- Online NewsHour, "Intelligence Probe". February 6, 2004.
- International Herald Tribune February 6, 2004 Not everyone got it wrong on Iraq's weapons by Scott Ritter
- p521 of War and Decision by Douglas FeithDouglas FeithDouglas J. Feith served as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy for United States President George W. Bush from July 2001 until August 2005. His official responsibilities included the formulation of defense planning guidance and forces policy, United States Department of Defense relations...
.