Irish property bubble
Encyclopedia
The property bubble in the Republic of Ireland
began in 2000 and peaked in 2006, as with many other western Europe
an countries, with a combination of increased speculative construction and rapidly rising prices.
As elsewhere, prices stabilized in 2007 and the bubble burst during 2008. By the second quarter of 2010, house prices had fallen by 35% compared with the second quarter of 2007, and the number of housing loan
s approved fell by 73%. The fall in domestic and commercial property prices contributed to the Irish banking crisis. As of November 2011, prices continue to fall. House prices in Dublin is now down 51% from peak and apartment prices down over 60%.This means house prices have so far returned to year 2000 levels - additionally - due to low availability of credit due to the credit crisis mortgage approvals have dropped to 1971 levels.
(ESRI) report, which indicated that for 2007 as a whole, property prices have fallen every month. This has come on the back of annual increases in the cost of residential property every year since 1993.
An International Monetary Fund
(IMF) report in 2000 contended that Irish property prices were unlikely to continue to grow strongly for long, since it would go against all evidence collated in other countries that had seen rapid price appreciation. House prices went on to triple between 2000 and 2006. Nevertheless, demand for residential property fell in early 2007, resulting in price decreases for March 2007 of 0.6%, and for April 2007 of 0.8%. This led to an expectation of a drop in house prices on a quarterly basis for the first time since 1994. Houses in the commuter belt in Greater Dublin fell earlier, due to a combination of increased supply in the Dublin urban area, increasing interest rates and continuing infrastructural issues in rural communities. Prices in large urban areas were static, though demand dropped noticeably. Construction employment dropped according to Live Register statistics for May 2007.
Since 2000, approximately 75,000 housing units have been built every year as detailed by the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government. However, a significant proportion of these new homes are unoccupied. Economic commentators give a figure of approximately 230,000 vacant properties. Of these up to 115,000 or so may be holiday homes.
Figures exist for completions because the Electricity Supply Board
provides information on the number of properties newly connected to the electricity network and from data supplied by local authorities and from the Dept of the Environment and the Central Statistics Office.
As of 2005, there was enough zoned land to accommodate 460,000 new homes, though as housing density figures continue to rise each year existing land has the potential to provide an even greater number of housing units.
There had also been reported cases of mortgage fraud where borrowers over-estimate their income to enable them to borrow more. There is a worry that these people "could fall into serious debt if Ireland had a property crisis like that in Britain in the late 1980s." This experience has resulted in the "sub-prime residential mortgage fallout" in the United States.
In December 2006, the Irish state-owned broadcasting organization, RTÉ
, broadcast an investigation in a Prime Time
documentary which unearthed evidence of financial details of prospective customers were being sold by mortgage brokers to auctioneers. Such information would enable auctioneers to maximize the price attained from prospective buyers. This issue, and further allegations in this area, are currently being investigated by the Office for Data Protection.
As of July 2007, estate agent
s in Dublin were reported to be offering incentives such as six months' worth of mortgage payments to prospective buyers, in an attempt to avoid lowering the recorded sale price.
sector. Irish education standards were perceived as high relative to those existing in other English-speaking countries. Improvements in the technical education area also played a key role in upskilling the Irish workforce. The combination of high education standards, and high capitalization ratios in the investment projects resulted in considerable improvements in labour productivity in the economy as a whole. This has resulted in increased wage levels in the traded sector of the economy.
With the introduction of the single currency, interest rates were greatly reduced and those buying property were encouraged to borrow larger amounts of money. As prices continued upward financial institutions offered 100% loans. Newspapers carried advertising for properties urging people to get onto the property ladder as property was seen as a one way bet. In 2006 160,000 Irish people remained unemployed, 21% of all school leavers including those that completed the Leaving Certificate
, were unemployed, the construction industry employed one eighth of the population, above the European average. Inflation was higher in Ireland than elsewhere.
.
When unemployment was high, such as in the 1980s, young Irish graduates and labourers worked in neighbouring EU countries, and sometimes illegally in the US. However improving economic prospects at home induced many to return from 1994 onwards. This return migration peaked in 1999. From 2001, migration from other countries has been an increasingly influential factor in the demand for residential housing. From the mid 1990s, increasingly difficult labour markets for graduates in continental Europe, and the requirements of many service companies for graduates with language skills, has resulted in inward migration from Spain, Germany, and France. The accession of new members in Eastern Europe, into the EU resulted in many people from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Czech Republic also participating in the Irish labour market.
The increasing cost of property and the need to borrow money to acquire Irish property has resulted in substantial increases in the total level of private sector debt, due to property investment in the Irish economy. This has become of increasing concern to the Irish Central Bank, which has issued many warnings, in an effort to affect consumer behaviour.
Rising property values in Ireland, and prosperity acquired from property trading, has been a strong factor influencing Irish people, to invest in overseas property. The main focus of such activity has been the newly admitted members of the European Union. Irish corporate concerns have also become substantial investors in London, Berlin, Paris and American cities.
The increase in property prices has also resulted in high prices being paid for development land. Irish property valuations are highest in Dublin, where the valuations are being driven by confidence, the highest salary rates in the Irish economy, and heavy US private sector direct investment. Valuations are most pronounced in locations that are perceived as the fashionable residential locations. This has resulted in the redevelopment of many sites to build apartment complexes in the Dublin 4
district. The valuations in this district have become the most expensive in Ireland. The sale of the Veterinary Surgeon site, in Dublin 4
by University College Dublin
(UCD) for a price of €171.56 million occurred in 2005. This accounted to a cost of almost €85 million per acre, or €212 million per hectare. This record was beaten in 2006, by the sale of another site, again in Dublin 4, also owned by UCD, in 2006, for €36 million. This equates to €95 million per acre, or almost €240 million per hectare. There were several sites in the same district which made similar prices. In many cases, the developer has to face down local objections, which delays the planning process for redevelopment substantially. These proposed development projects will prove difficult, if not impossible to initiate.
Another side-effect of high urban housing valuations is a drift into rural hinterlands to live in lower cost housing. This has happened on a substantial scale in the greater Dublin area, in counties Wicklow
, Kildare
, Meath
, Louth
, and Carlow
. This results in development in rural villages, and provincial towns as residential developments exceed the pace of infrastructural development, and services for urban population. This may create social and environmental problems in rural areas. It also leads to locals being unable to live in their own area, due to prices rising at a rate greatly in excess of local wages. Another effect is this development of increased commuting times for people living in locations that are distant from the large employment centres. This has increased demands on the transport infrastructure, with the Irish public transport company CIE
being asked to upgrade capacity in a short time. Ireland's increasing carbon dioxide emissions due to increased road traffic are also causing Ireland to breach previously agreed commitments contained in the Kyoto Accord. These breaches will result in direct cost to the Irish exchequer. The Irish state budget for the fiscal year 2007 contains a number of initiatives and incentives to improve energy efficiency in other areas and reduce the overall cost of this measure in the future.
To address a perceived lack of planning on the part of Irish state bodies, and to develop poles of growth in the regions, the Irish government initiated the National Spatial Strategy
. This was initiated to spread urban development to region centres. However, this contained many promises that were not feasible. It also resulted in standstill due to disputes over local concerns.
The Irish government's Decentralisation Plan for the Civil Service was created in 2004 and was based loosely on the model previously implemented in Denmark
. One of the expected results of this move is to reduce the share of Irish state investment in Dublin, and thereby alleviate the difficulties experienced by first time house buyers in the city. Because the age profile of civil servants is older than people employed in Ireland's private sector, this would effectively result in older people making way for younger people in Dublin. This would also result in an overall reduction in the cost of doing business in Dublin, and thereby preserve its attractiveness as a location for direct investment. However this was only partially successful with the first location to fill its allocated quota being the one nearest to Dublin, Trim
. Many civil servants have expressed a wish to reside in other urban centres with sufficient third level institutions, for example Galway
. Implementation of the Decentralisation plan is considerably behind schedule, and it remains to be seen how this will eventually completed.
journalist/comedian Brendan O'Connor
urged people to buy property, even as the bubble was clearly bursting.
In April 2011 journalist Vincent Browne
admitted that The Irish media had played an important role in adding to the frenzy of the Irish property bubble.
(ECB) are only guided by low inflation targets in the Eurozone
. Some feel this too narrow an objective, leading to decisions on interest rates that are inappropriate, e.g., in a country with record levels of employment, rising house prices and consumer spending. The Irish economy has fallen down the global competitiveness table from fourth to thirtieth in the past three years due to the rising costs of doing business.
The housing boom is responsible for the employment of approximately 20-30% of the working population. The independently produced Review of the Construction Industry, commissioned by the Department for Environment, estimates that 12% of the workforce are employed directly in the construction industry.
There were several groups and organisations that were blamed and that also accused others of causing the crash. Some of the more notable ones were:
In general, it was assumed to be a combination of factors that were both external and internal that affected the country. Further revelations of the corruption within the banking sector, particularly Anglo Irish Bank, have continued to affect the credibility of Ireland's presence within the international finance and business community.
At the start of 2011, the government put its banks through stringent stress tests after repeated rounds of recapitalization failed to halt the banking crisis in Ireland. Instead of trusting banks to submit their own data, BlackRock
- the world's largest and most prominent asset management company was paid to value individual assets on bank books. This involved a series of on site audits of bank accounts, and even in some occasions physical valuation of some of the properties underlying bank mortgage assets. And based on the valuations by BlackRock
, the estimate cost of recapitalizing Ireland's banks was raised to €100 billion. The stress-tests that the banks underwent, unveiled that four banks—Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, EBS Building Society and Irish Life & Permanent—must raise an extra €24 billion of capital to meet a minimum core Tier-1 capital ratio of 6% under the tests’ worst-case assumptions. The tests, at the very least, did not reveal the need for more money to be poured into the maw of Anglo Irish, which announced a loss of €17.7 billion for 2010, the largest in Irish corporate history.
During the property boom, a disproportionate number of people were employed in the construction industry. As that has contracted and other manufacturing moved offshore, unemployment by May 2009 was at 11.4%, although the Ireland-based ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute) estimates it will reach around 17%.
Republic of Ireland
Ireland , described as the Republic of Ireland , is a sovereign state in Europe occupying approximately five-sixths of the island of the same name. Its capital is Dublin. Ireland, which had a population of 4.58 million in 2011, is a constitutional republic governed as a parliamentary democracy,...
began in 2000 and peaked in 2006, as with many other western Europe
Western Europe
Western Europe is a loose term for the collection of countries in the western most region of the European continents, though this definition is context-dependent and carries cultural and political connotations. One definition describes Western Europe as a geographic entity—the region lying in the...
an countries, with a combination of increased speculative construction and rapidly rising prices.
As elsewhere, prices stabilized in 2007 and the bubble burst during 2008. By the second quarter of 2010, house prices had fallen by 35% compared with the second quarter of 2007, and the number of housing loan
Loan
A loan is a type of debt. Like all debt instruments, a loan entails the redistribution of financial assets over time, between the lender and the borrower....
s approved fell by 73%. The fall in domestic and commercial property prices contributed to the Irish banking crisis. As of November 2011, prices continue to fall. House prices in Dublin is now down 51% from peak and apartment prices down over 60%.This means house prices have so far returned to year 2000 levels - additionally - due to low availability of credit due to the credit crisis mortgage approvals have dropped to 1971 levels.
The Boom Years
Newspaper articles have provided anecdotal evidence of declining valuations with respect to the guide prices, and the agreed prices for Irish residential property, since October 2006. This phenomenon was officially vindicated by the last Economic and Social Research InstituteEconomic and Social Research Institute
The Economic and Social Research Institute is a think tank in Dublin, Ireland. Its research focuses on Ireland's economic and social development in order to inform policy-making and societal understanding....
(ESRI) report, which indicated that for 2007 as a whole, property prices have fallen every month. This has come on the back of annual increases in the cost of residential property every year since 1993.
An International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world...
(IMF) report in 2000 contended that Irish property prices were unlikely to continue to grow strongly for long, since it would go against all evidence collated in other countries that had seen rapid price appreciation. House prices went on to triple between 2000 and 2006. Nevertheless, demand for residential property fell in early 2007, resulting in price decreases for March 2007 of 0.6%, and for April 2007 of 0.8%. This led to an expectation of a drop in house prices on a quarterly basis for the first time since 1994. Houses in the commuter belt in Greater Dublin fell earlier, due to a combination of increased supply in the Dublin urban area, increasing interest rates and continuing infrastructural issues in rural communities. Prices in large urban areas were static, though demand dropped noticeably. Construction employment dropped according to Live Register statistics for May 2007.
Since 2000, approximately 75,000 housing units have been built every year as detailed by the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government. However, a significant proportion of these new homes are unoccupied. Economic commentators give a figure of approximately 230,000 vacant properties. Of these up to 115,000 or so may be holiday homes.
Figures exist for completions because the Electricity Supply Board
Electricity Supply Board
The Electricity Supply Board , is a semi-state electricity company in Ireland. While historically a monopoly, the ESB now operates as a commercial semi-state concern in a liberalised and competitive market...
provides information on the number of properties newly connected to the electricity network and from data supplied by local authorities and from the Dept of the Environment and the Central Statistics Office.
As of 2005, there was enough zoned land to accommodate 460,000 new homes, though as housing density figures continue to rise each year existing land has the potential to provide an even greater number of housing units.
There had also been reported cases of mortgage fraud where borrowers over-estimate their income to enable them to borrow more. There is a worry that these people "could fall into serious debt if Ireland had a property crisis like that in Britain in the late 1980s." This experience has resulted in the "sub-prime residential mortgage fallout" in the United States.
In December 2006, the Irish state-owned broadcasting organization, RTÉ
RTE
RTÉ is the abbreviation for Raidió Teilifís Éireann, the public broadcasting service of the Republic of Ireland.RTE may also refer to:* Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 25th Prime Minister of Turkey...
, broadcast an investigation in a Prime Time
Prime Time
Prime Time is an Irish news analysis, current affairs and politics programme. It is broadcast on RTÉ One on Tuesday and Thursday nights between 21:30 and 22:10. It is currently presented by Miriam O'Callaghan, who has presented the programme since its commencement in 1996...
documentary which unearthed evidence of financial details of prospective customers were being sold by mortgage brokers to auctioneers. Such information would enable auctioneers to maximize the price attained from prospective buyers. This issue, and further allegations in this area, are currently being investigated by the Office for Data Protection.
As of July 2007, estate agent
Estate agent
An estate agent is a person or business that arranges the selling, renting or management of properties, and other buildings, in the United Kingdom and Ireland. An agent that specialises in renting is often called a letting or management agent...
s in Dublin were reported to be offering incentives such as six months' worth of mortgage payments to prospective buyers, in an attempt to avoid lowering the recorded sale price.
Increased prosperity
Since 1994, the Irish economy has benefited from considerable inward investment from the multinationalMultinational corporation
A multi national corporation or enterprise , is a corporation or an enterprise that manages production or delivers services in more than one country. It can also be referred to as an international corporation...
sector. Irish education standards were perceived as high relative to those existing in other English-speaking countries. Improvements in the technical education area also played a key role in upskilling the Irish workforce. The combination of high education standards, and high capitalization ratios in the investment projects resulted in considerable improvements in labour productivity in the economy as a whole. This has resulted in increased wage levels in the traded sector of the economy.
With the introduction of the single currency, interest rates were greatly reduced and those buying property were encouraged to borrow larger amounts of money. As prices continued upward financial institutions offered 100% loans. Newspapers carried advertising for properties urging people to get onto the property ladder as property was seen as a one way bet. In 2006 160,000 Irish people remained unemployed, 21% of all school leavers including those that completed the Leaving Certificate
Leaving Certificate
The Leaving Certificate Examinations , commonly referred to as the Leaving Cert is the final examination in the Irish secondary school system. It takes a minimum of two years preparation, but an optional Transition Year means that for those students it takes place three years after the Junior...
, were unemployed, the construction industry employed one eighth of the population, above the European average. Inflation was higher in Ireland than elsewhere.
Demographics
One of the greatest myths surrounding Ireland's property bubble relates to demographics. It is often stated that Ireland had a baby boom from 1965 onwards, when in fact Ireland's birth rate remained at the relatively constant rate of 21.5 per one thousand from the 1940s up to the 1980s. Whereas parts of Western Europe saw a 'baby boom' in the 1960s, Ireland experienced nothing of the sort, simply because its birth-rate was already high by Western European standards. In other words, there was no 1990s 'spike' in Ireland's population because of the birth-rate, as the birth-rate had been at the same level for decades. The demographic argument was promulgated by such people as David Drumm of the scandal-ridden Anglo Irish BankAnglo Irish Bank
Anglo Irish Bank was a bank based in Ireland with its headquarters in Dublin from 1964 to 2011. It went into wind-down mode after nationalisation in 2009....
.
When unemployment was high, such as in the 1980s, young Irish graduates and labourers worked in neighbouring EU countries, and sometimes illegally in the US. However improving economic prospects at home induced many to return from 1994 onwards. This return migration peaked in 1999. From 2001, migration from other countries has been an increasingly influential factor in the demand for residential housing. From the mid 1990s, increasingly difficult labour markets for graduates in continental Europe, and the requirements of many service companies for graduates with language skills, has resulted in inward migration from Spain, Germany, and France. The accession of new members in Eastern Europe, into the EU resulted in many people from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and the Czech Republic also participating in the Irish labour market.
Interest rate policy
Property valuations were rising before Ireland joined in the initial launch of the Euro in 2002. This was mainly due to a very buoyant traded sector, and increasing state expenditure. The fact that the Euro interest rates were lower than the interest rates caused Irish property values to increase further. Over time, the scale of residential mortgage debt reached proportions that was of concern to the Irish Central Bank.The increasing cost of property and the need to borrow money to acquire Irish property has resulted in substantial increases in the total level of private sector debt, due to property investment in the Irish economy. This has become of increasing concern to the Irish Central Bank, which has issued many warnings, in an effort to affect consumer behaviour.
Feel good factor
The fact that property valuations were steadily increasing tended to create a systematic feedback loop, where rising prices affected the psychology of market participants, causing further increases in prices. Public sector pay deals like the benchmarking program, tended to spread the feel good factor to the state sector, causing further competition in the market, with people in state jobs competing with workers from the private sector, whose long term job prospects were not as secure.Rising property values in Ireland, and prosperity acquired from property trading, has been a strong factor influencing Irish people, to invest in overseas property. The main focus of such activity has been the newly admitted members of the European Union. Irish corporate concerns have also become substantial investors in London, Berlin, Paris and American cities.
Planning policy
Irish planning policy has been the subject of much debate between academics and political parties. A critique of Irish Planning Policy would include references to the lack of systematic planning, insufficient 'joined up thinking', and considerable pandering to vested interests and local concerns. Property valuations have been inconsistent across the state. The most influential factors are often the performance of the local labour market and the availability of sufficient quantities of serviced development land. The largest urban areas have experienced the most growth, with the property boom more pronounced in Dublin than elsewhere, especially in the areas beside Dublin Bay, where planning is most restricted and the amount of accumulated wealth is highest. Irish planning policy has failed to create high density residential housing schemes near transport infrastructure, with the exception of the Adamstown and Ashtown areas in the western and inner northern suburbs of Dublin respectively. The fact that Dublin occupies a footprint the same as Berlin, with one third the population, and both have equal space devoted to parkland is an example of how low density housing dominates. This causes problems in providing justification for heavy usage public transport infrastructure.The increase in property prices has also resulted in high prices being paid for development land. Irish property valuations are highest in Dublin, where the valuations are being driven by confidence, the highest salary rates in the Irish economy, and heavy US private sector direct investment. Valuations are most pronounced in locations that are perceived as the fashionable residential locations. This has resulted in the redevelopment of many sites to build apartment complexes in the Dublin 4
Dublin 4
Dublin 4 is a postal district of Dublin, Ireland including the suburbs of Sandymount, Ballsbridge, Donnybrook, Ringsend and Irishtown on the South side of Dublin....
district. The valuations in this district have become the most expensive in Ireland. The sale of the Veterinary Surgeon site, in Dublin 4
Dublin 4
Dublin 4 is a postal district of Dublin, Ireland including the suburbs of Sandymount, Ballsbridge, Donnybrook, Ringsend and Irishtown on the South side of Dublin....
by University College Dublin
University College Dublin
University College Dublin ) - formally known as University College Dublin - National University of Ireland, Dublin is the Republic of Ireland's largest, and Ireland's second largest, university, with over 1,300 faculty and 17,000 students...
(UCD) for a price of €171.56 million occurred in 2005. This accounted to a cost of almost €85 million per acre, or €212 million per hectare. This record was beaten in 2006, by the sale of another site, again in Dublin 4, also owned by UCD, in 2006, for €36 million. This equates to €95 million per acre, or almost €240 million per hectare. There were several sites in the same district which made similar prices. In many cases, the developer has to face down local objections, which delays the planning process for redevelopment substantially. These proposed development projects will prove difficult, if not impossible to initiate.
Another side-effect of high urban housing valuations is a drift into rural hinterlands to live in lower cost housing. This has happened on a substantial scale in the greater Dublin area, in counties Wicklow
County Wicklow
County Wicklow is a county in Ireland. It is part of the Mid-East Region and is also located in the province of Leinster. It is named after the town of Wicklow, which derives from the Old Norse name Víkingalág or Wykynlo. Wicklow County Council is the local authority for the county...
, Kildare
County Kildare
County Kildare is a county in Ireland. It is part of the Mid-East Region and is also located in the province of Leinster. It is named after the town of Kildare. Kildare County Council is the local authority for the county...
, Meath
County Meath
County Meath is a county in Ireland. It is part of the Mid-East Region and is also located in the province of Leinster. It is named after the ancient Kingdom of Mide . Meath County Council is the local authority for the county...
, Louth
County Louth
County Louth is a county of Ireland. It is part of the Border Region and is also located in the province of Leinster. It is named after the town of Louth. Louth County Council is the local authority for the county...
, and Carlow
County Carlow
County Carlow is a county in Ireland. It is part of the South-East Region and is also located in the province of Leinster. It is named after the town of Carlow, which lies on the River Barrow. Carlow County Council is the local authority for the county...
. This results in development in rural villages, and provincial towns as residential developments exceed the pace of infrastructural development, and services for urban population. This may create social and environmental problems in rural areas. It also leads to locals being unable to live in their own area, due to prices rising at a rate greatly in excess of local wages. Another effect is this development of increased commuting times for people living in locations that are distant from the large employment centres. This has increased demands on the transport infrastructure, with the Irish public transport company CIE
Córas Iompair Éireann
Córas Iompair Éireann , or CIÉ, is a statutory corporation of the Irish state, answerable to the Irish Government and responsible for most public transport in the Republic of Ireland and, jointly with its Northern Ireland counterpart, the Northern Ireland Transport Holding Company, between the...
being asked to upgrade capacity in a short time. Ireland's increasing carbon dioxide emissions due to increased road traffic are also causing Ireland to breach previously agreed commitments contained in the Kyoto Accord. These breaches will result in direct cost to the Irish exchequer. The Irish state budget for the fiscal year 2007 contains a number of initiatives and incentives to improve energy efficiency in other areas and reduce the overall cost of this measure in the future.
To address a perceived lack of planning on the part of Irish state bodies, and to develop poles of growth in the regions, the Irish government initiated the National Spatial Strategy
National Spatial Strategy
The National Spatial Strategy 2002-2020 is a twenty year planning framework, with an aim of balancing social, economic and physical development in the Republic of Ireland.-Gateways and Hubs:...
. This was initiated to spread urban development to region centres. However, this contained many promises that were not feasible. It also resulted in standstill due to disputes over local concerns.
The Irish government's Decentralisation Plan for the Civil Service was created in 2004 and was based loosely on the model previously implemented in Denmark
Denmark
Denmark is a Scandinavian country in Northern Europe. The countries of Denmark and Greenland, as well as the Faroe Islands, constitute the Kingdom of Denmark . It is the southernmost of the Nordic countries, southwest of Sweden and south of Norway, and bordered to the south by Germany. Denmark...
. One of the expected results of this move is to reduce the share of Irish state investment in Dublin, and thereby alleviate the difficulties experienced by first time house buyers in the city. Because the age profile of civil servants is older than people employed in Ireland's private sector, this would effectively result in older people making way for younger people in Dublin. This would also result in an overall reduction in the cost of doing business in Dublin, and thereby preserve its attractiveness as a location for direct investment. However this was only partially successful with the first location to fill its allocated quota being the one nearest to Dublin, Trim
Trim, County Meath
Trim is the traditional county town of County Meath in Ireland, although the county town is now Navan. The town was recorded in the 2006 census to have a population of 6,870....
. Many civil servants have expressed a wish to reside in other urban centres with sufficient third level institutions, for example Galway
Galway
Galway or City of Galway is a city in County Galway, Republic of Ireland. It is the sixth largest and the fastest-growing city in Ireland. It is also the third largest city within the Republic and the only city in the Province of Connacht. Located on the west coast of Ireland, it sits on the...
. Implementation of the Decentralisation plan is considerably behind schedule, and it remains to be seen how this will eventually completed.
Role of the media
In July 2007 Irish IndependentIrish Independent
The Irish Independent is Ireland's largest-selling daily newspaper that is published in both compact and broadsheet formats. It is the flagship publication of Independent News & Media.-History:...
journalist/comedian Brendan O'Connor
Brendan O'Connor (journalist)
Brendan O'Connor is an Irish journalist, comedian, media personality and retired pop star. Since 2010 he has presented The Saturday Night Show on RTÉ One. O'Connor is a columnist for the Sunday Independent, and is editor of the newspaper's Life Magazine.O'Connor's pop career has included a stint...
urged people to buy property, even as the bubble was clearly bursting.
In April 2011 journalist Vincent Browne
Vincent Browne
Vincent Browne is an Irish print and broadcast journalist. He is a columnist with The Irish Times and The Sunday Business Post and a part time barrister....
admitted that The Irish media had played an important role in adding to the frenzy of the Irish property bubble.
Growth background
Interest rates set by the European Central BankEuropean Central Bank
The European Central Bank is the institution of the European Union that administers the monetary policy of the 17 EU Eurozone member states. It is thus one of the world's most important central banks. The bank was established by the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1998, and is headquartered in Frankfurt,...
(ECB) are only guided by low inflation targets in the Eurozone
Eurozone
The eurozone , officially called the euro area, is an economic and monetary union of seventeen European Union member states that have adopted the euro as their common currency and sole legal tender...
. Some feel this too narrow an objective, leading to decisions on interest rates that are inappropriate, e.g., in a country with record levels of employment, rising house prices and consumer spending. The Irish economy has fallen down the global competitiveness table from fourth to thirtieth in the past three years due to the rising costs of doing business.
The housing boom is responsible for the employment of approximately 20-30% of the working population. The independently produced Review of the Construction Industry, commissioned by the Department for Environment, estimates that 12% of the workforce are employed directly in the construction industry.
Crash predictions
- The International Monetary FundInternational Monetary FundThe International Monetary Fund is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world...
in 2003 stated that residential property in Ireland was overvalued.
- The EconomistThe EconomistThe Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...
news magazine suggested in June 2005 that a large bubble exists in the Irish market.
- The Economic and Social Research InstituteEconomic and Social Research InstituteThe Economic and Social Research Institute is a think tank in Dublin, Ireland. Its research focuses on Ireland's economic and social development in order to inform policy-making and societal understanding....
in Ireland said that a bubble probably existed.
- The OECD and certain senior Irish officials of the Central Bank of Ireland agreed in November 2005 that Irish Property is overvalued by 15%. However this was only released to the public by The Irish TimesThe Irish TimesThe Irish Times is an Irish daily broadsheet newspaper launched on 29 March 1859. The editor is Kevin O'Sullivan who succeeded Geraldine Kennedy in 2011; the deputy editor is Paul O'Neill. The Irish Times is considered to be Ireland's newspaper of record, and is published every day except Sundays...
shortly afterwards. The Central Bank denied that they had deliberately withheld this information to avoid triggering a crash, and in April 2006 said the housing boom may be "unsustainable" and poses a "significant risk" to the economy.
- Most economists think that property prices are unsustainable because rental yields have fallen below the risk free rate of over 3.5% offered by Government bonds.
- The Economic and Social Research InstituteEconomic and Social Research InstituteThe Economic and Social Research Institute is a think tank in Dublin, Ireland. Its research focuses on Ireland's economic and social development in order to inform policy-making and societal understanding....
issued a statement on 18 April 2007 in light of the RTÉ documentary on 16 April 2007 stating that the only activities there is economic certainty in is cigarette manufacturing and undertakingFuneral directorA funeral director , also known as a mortician or undertaker, is a professional involved in the business of funeral rites. These tasks often entail the embalming and burial or cremation of the dead, as well as the planning and arrangement of the actual funeral ceremony...
.
- Many estate agents and banks continued to offer and promote 100% mortgages in the market until recently.
The Crash of 2009
As predicted in earlier reports dating from 2006 and 2007, a property price crash hit Ireland by the first half of 2009. It coincided with the 2009 recession, and both had started to develop in late 2008 following the global economic slowdown and credit control tightening. By June 2009, it was reported that around 40% of the price escalation that had occurred during the property boom years ("Celtic Tiger Part 2") of 2001-2007 had been lost.There were several groups and organisations that were blamed and that also accused others of causing the crash. Some of the more notable ones were:
- The Construction Industry Federation: blamed part-time builders for the bubble
- The Financial Services Consultative Consumer Panel, which was tasked with monitoring the performance of the Central Bank of Ireland, said that most consumers have lost “significant amounts of money” due to the inadequacies of the financial regulatory structure. It also criticised the “deficient” response of the regulator to threats to consumers, including the property bubble. In response they said “It is clear that the actions we took were insufficient and were not taken early enough,” Following the failure of existing regulatory structures to prevent excessive lending to the property sector, consultants which were brought in to review their operations said that "regulatory expertise was lacking in some areas." Former TaoiseachTaoiseachThe Taoiseach is the head of government or prime minister of Ireland. The Taoiseach is appointed by the President upon the nomination of Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas , and must, in order to remain in office, retain the support of a majority in the Dáil.The current Taoiseach is...
, Bertie AhernBertie AhernPatrick Bartholomew "Bertie" Ahern is a former Irish politician who served as Taoiseach of Ireland from 26 June 1997 to 7 May 2008....
said his decision in 2001 to create the Financial Regulator was one of the main reasons for the collapse of the Irish banking sector and“if I had a chance again I wouldn’t do it”. - The Central Bank of Ireland admitted in November 2005 that they had estimates of overvaluation of 0% to 60% in the Irish residential property market. The Irish Times has revealed minutes of a meeting with the OECD where they indicated that property was overvalued but was fearful of precipitating a crash by "putting a number on it". Their 2009 Annual Report had virtually nothing to say about how and why the Irish banking system was brought to the brink of collapse.There were four Central Bank directors on the board of the Financial Regulator, yet the Central Bank maintains it had no powers to intervene in the market. The Central Bank had the power to issue directives to the Financial Regulator if it thought it was conducting its business in a way that was contrary to overall Central Bank policy aims.None was issued. The Central Bank told the Oireachtas Enterprise Committee that shareholders who lost their money in the banking collapse are to blame for their fate and got what was coming to them for not keeping bank chiefs in check, but did admit that the Central Bank had failed to give sufficient warning about reckless lending to property developers.
- The banks: were accused of too loose lending practices, contributing not just to property prices spiralling out of control but also increasing the debt burden of the average citizen as they were to be later bailed out
In general, it was assumed to be a combination of factors that were both external and internal that affected the country. Further revelations of the corruption within the banking sector, particularly Anglo Irish Bank, have continued to affect the credibility of Ireland's presence within the international finance and business community.
At the start of 2011, the government put its banks through stringent stress tests after repeated rounds of recapitalization failed to halt the banking crisis in Ireland. Instead of trusting banks to submit their own data, BlackRock
BlackRock
BlackRock, Inc. is an American multinational investment management corporation and the world's largest asset manager. BlackRock is headquartered in Manhattan, New York City, New York, United States and is the leading provider of investment, advisory, and risk management solutions...
- the world's largest and most prominent asset management company was paid to value individual assets on bank books. This involved a series of on site audits of bank accounts, and even in some occasions physical valuation of some of the properties underlying bank mortgage assets. And based on the valuations by BlackRock
BlackRock
BlackRock, Inc. is an American multinational investment management corporation and the world's largest asset manager. BlackRock is headquartered in Manhattan, New York City, New York, United States and is the leading provider of investment, advisory, and risk management solutions...
, the estimate cost of recapitalizing Ireland's banks was raised to €100 billion. The stress-tests that the banks underwent, unveiled that four banks—Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, EBS Building Society and Irish Life & Permanent—must raise an extra €24 billion of capital to meet a minimum core Tier-1 capital ratio of 6% under the tests’ worst-case assumptions. The tests, at the very least, did not reveal the need for more money to be poured into the maw of Anglo Irish, which announced a loss of €17.7 billion for 2010, the largest in Irish corporate history.
During the property boom, a disproportionate number of people were employed in the construction industry. As that has contracted and other manufacturing moved offshore, unemployment by May 2009 was at 11.4%, although the Ireland-based ESRI (Economic and Social Research Institute) estimates it will reach around 17%.
Facts and figures
- 12.6% of the Irish workforce was employed by the construction industry.
- 9.4% of Irish GNPGNPGross National Product is the market value of all products and services produced in one year by labor and property supplied by the residents of a country...
was dependent on construction. Of this new residential housing construction makes up nearly 7% of GNP. - The P/E ratioP/E ratioThe P/E ratio of a stock is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share...
(Total Price divided by annual earnings) for private housing is at an all time high. A Davy Stockbrokers report (Mar 2006) suggests that for prosperous Dublin suburbs the ratio could be approaching 100 times. Davy states that these ratios can only be justified if investors are extremely bullish about rental growth. Given the plentiful supply of rental properties in these areas however, Davy suggests that it will be an adjustment in property prices, rather than rents that will eventually bring valuations down to more realistic levels. - A very high proportion of new houses in IrelandIrelandIreland is an island to the northwest of continental Europe. It is the third-largest island in Europe and the twentieth-largest island on Earth...
remain unoccupied. - Although housing indicators like price to income ratio and rental yields are worse in many other countries, high price per square meter and unsustainable Irish economy indicates the bubble.
See also
- Real estate bubbleReal estate bubbleA real estate bubble or property bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets...
- United States housing bubbleUnited States housing bubbleThe United States housing bubble is an economic bubble affecting many parts of the United States housing market in over half of American states. Housing prices peaked in early 2006, started to decline in 2006 and 2007, and may not yet have hit bottom as of 2011. On December 30, 2008 the...
- British property bubble
- Australian property bubbleAustralian property bubbleThe Australian Property bubble is an observation that real estate prices in Australia are valued at more than they are worth. This is a real estate bubble....
- Japanese asset price bubbleJapanese asset price bubbleThe was an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991, in which real estate and stock prices were greatly inflated. The bubble's collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices initially bottoming in 2003, although they would descend even further amidst the global crisis in 2008. The...
- Spanish property bubbleSpanish property bubbleThe Spanish property bubble refers to the massive growth of real state prices observed, in various stages, from 1985 up to 2008 in Spain. The housing burst can be clearly divided in three periods: 1985-1991, in which the price nearly tripled, 1992-1996, in which the price remained somewhat stable,...
- Indian property bubbleIndian property bubbleThe origins of Indian Property Market Bubble can be traced to the interest rate reductions made by the NDA coalition government in the years following 2001. Home Loan Rates fell to a historical lows of 7.5% in early 2004. This prepared the basis for the increase in real estate property prices...
- Polish property bubblePolish property bubbleOver the span of years 2002-2008 real estate prices in Poland have increased drastically. Between June 2006 and June 2007 alone the average price of a square metre in Warsaw rose from 6,683 PLN to 9,540 PLN .According to a major Polish newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, the average monthly salary in...
- United States housing bubble
- Ghost estateGhost estateA ghost estate is an unoccupied housing estate built on the island of Ireland, most particularly the Republic of Ireland, during the period of economic growth when the Irish economy was known as the Celtic tiger. A massive surplus of housing, combined with the late-2000s recession, resulted in a...
External links
- Daft.ie Economic Research - Economic Analysis by Daft.ie, Property Portal, on average house prices, rents
- Not a stone will stand upon a stone article by Jason Walsh
- The Property Pin - Irish Forum dedicated to discussing the Boom / Crisis
- Ireland Property - Daft Property - Irish Property Forum
- DaftWatch - Irish property inventory tracker
- RTÉ Futureshock - RTÉ Television examines whether Ireland's property bubble is about to burst.
- DaftDrop.com - Online tool aimed at buyers, which tracks Irish property price changes and provides other useful statistics
- Irish Property Watch - Website tracking asking prices on daft.ie
- OECD working paper - Analysis by OECD economists on Irish house prices
- StatusIreland - Website containing housing statistics for Ireland
- http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0729/housing-business.html