Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms
Encyclopedia
Politicians and pundits frequently refer to the ability of the President of the United States
to "create jobs" in the U.S. during his or her term in office. The numbers are most often seen during the election season or in regard to a President's economic legacy. The numbers typically used and most frequently cited by economists are total nonfarm payroll employment numbers as collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
on a monthly and annual basis.
payrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period (which includes the 12th of the month), including persons on paid leave.
As of 2005, the sample includes about 160,000 businesses and government agencies covering approximately 400,000 individual worksites. These job counts are monthly estimates based on data provided by employers (adjusted annually to a near census of total jobs provided by mandatory unemployment insurance filings) and also reflect those with multiple employers who are counted with each employer.
Additionally, for at least the first eight months of a President's term, he inherits a budget proposed and implemented by his predecessor (as well as an overall economy which may be in decline or recovery). The data in columns shown for September (in bold) correlate better with the federal fiscal year starting each October, showing the impact of a given president and resulting federal budget on the job count.
Moreover, according to the United States Constitution
, the United States Congress
is responsible for government spending and thus, regardless of Presidential advocacy, bears constitutional responsibility for such things as spending and tax policy that have enormous effects upon the economy. Furthermore, it is debatable how much effect any President realistically could have on a system as large, diverse, and complex as the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the nonfarm payrolls
number is the one most frequently used in the media and by economists, largely because the alternative (household survey numbers) is thought to drastically overestimate employment.
Another factor to consider is population growth, which provides opportunities for the creation of jobs, rendering these figures less impressive, or in the case of the already subpar, clearly insufficient.
The Heritage Foundation
has pointed to Alan Greenspan's general economic optimism (in 2004) as support for household survey numbers over payroll numbers. However, the subsequent downturn, and Greenspan's admission of having been wrong, may have discredited that view.
** Approximate
For information on the United States public debt
divided by Gross Domestic Product
by Presidential term, see National Debt by U.S. presidential terms
President of the United States
The President of the United States of America is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces....
to "create jobs" in the U.S. during his or her term in office. The numbers are most often seen during the election season or in regard to a President's economic legacy. The numbers typically used and most frequently cited by economists are total nonfarm payroll employment numbers as collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics. The BLS is a governmental statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and...
on a monthly and annual basis.
Methodology
The job numbers are collected via a survey of thousands of businesses. The sample establishments are drawn from private nonfarm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities. Employees on nonfarmpayrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period (which includes the 12th of the month), including persons on paid leave.
As of 2005, the sample includes about 160,000 businesses and government agencies covering approximately 400,000 individual worksites. These job counts are monthly estimates based on data provided by employers (adjusted annually to a near census of total jobs provided by mandatory unemployment insurance filings) and also reflect those with multiple employers who are counted with each employer.
Controversy
The exact usefulness of these numbers is debated. On the one hand, they include only nonfarm payroll employment, which excludes certain types of jobs, notably the self-employed. However, as a semi-balancing factor, they count one person with two jobs as two employed persons.Additionally, for at least the first eight months of a President's term, he inherits a budget proposed and implemented by his predecessor (as well as an overall economy which may be in decline or recovery). The data in columns shown for September (in bold) correlate better with the federal fiscal year starting each October, showing the impact of a given president and resulting federal budget on the job count.
Moreover, according to the United States Constitution
United States Constitution
The Constitution of the United States is the supreme law of the United States of America. It is the framework for the organization of the United States government and for the relationship of the federal government with the states, citizens, and all people within the United States.The first three...
, the United States Congress
United States Congress
The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Congress meets in the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C....
is responsible for government spending and thus, regardless of Presidential advocacy, bears constitutional responsibility for such things as spending and tax policy that have enormous effects upon the economy. Furthermore, it is debatable how much effect any President realistically could have on a system as large, diverse, and complex as the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the nonfarm payrolls
Nonfarm payrolls
Nonfarm payroll employment is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market....
number is the one most frequently used in the media and by economists, largely because the alternative (household survey numbers) is thought to drastically overestimate employment.
Another factor to consider is population growth, which provides opportunities for the creation of jobs, rendering these figures less impressive, or in the case of the already subpar, clearly insufficient.
The Heritage Foundation
Heritage Foundation
The Heritage Foundation is a conservative American think tank based in Washington, D.C. Heritage's stated mission is to "formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited government, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong...
has pointed to Alan Greenspan's general economic optimism (in 2004) as support for household survey numbers over payroll numbers. However, the subsequent downturn, and Greenspan's admission of having been wrong, may have discredited that view.
Job creation by term
Numbers listed from 1941 and onward are BLS data of jobs (in thousands), and are shown from the year beginning and ending each presidential term. The monthly statistics are quoted from January, as U.S. presidents take office at the end of that month, and from September (bold), as this is the last month of the federal fiscal year. That is, the election in November will cause a president to take office at the end of January and begin the process of passing a federal budget which takes effect in the October following the election year.| U.S. president | Party | Term years | Start jobs (Jan) |
Start jobs (Sept) |
End jobs (Jan) |
End jobs (Sept) |
Created (Jan) |
Created (Sept) |
Ave annual increase (Jan) |
Ave annual increase (Sept) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harding/Coolidge Calvin Coolidge John Calvin Coolidge, Jr. was the 30th President of the United States . A Republican lawyer from Vermont, Coolidge worked his way up the ladder of Massachusetts state politics, eventually becoming governor of that state... |
R | 1921–1925 | 25,000 ** | 29,500 ** | +4,500 ** | +4.23% ** | ||||
| Calvin Coolidge Calvin Coolidge John Calvin Coolidge, Jr. was the 30th President of the United States . A Republican lawyer from Vermont, Coolidge worked his way up the ladder of Massachusetts state politics, eventually becoming governor of that state... |
R | 1925–1929 | 29,500 ** | 32,100 ** | +2,600 ** | +2.13% ** | ||||
| Herbert Hoover Herbert Hoover Herbert Clark Hoover was the 31st President of the United States . Hoover was originally a professional mining engineer and author. As the United States Secretary of Commerce in the 1920s under Presidents Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, he promoted partnerships between government and business... |
R | 1929–1933 | 32,100 ** | 25,700 ** | -6,400 ** | -5.41% ** | ||||
| Franklin Roosevelt | D | 1933–1937 | 25,700 ** | 31,200 ** | +5,500 ** | +4.97% ** | ||||
| Franklin Roosevelt | D | 1937–1941 | 31,200 ** | 34,480 | 37,836 | +3,280 ** | +2.53% ** | |||
| Franklin Roosevelt | D | 1941–1945 | 34,480 | 37,836 | 41,903 | 38,500 | +7,423 | +664 | +5.00% | +0.44% |
| Roosevelt/Truman | D | 1945–1949 | 41,903 | 38,500 | 44,675 | 43,784 | +2,772 | +5,284 | +1.61% | +3.27% |
| Harry Truman | D | 1949–1953 | 44,675 | 43,784 | 50,145 | 50,365 | +5,470 | +6,581 | +2.93% | +3.56% |
| Dwight Eisenhower | R | 1953–1957 | 50,145 | 50,365 | 52,888 | 52,932 | +2,743 | +2,567 | +1.34% | +1.25% |
| Dwight Eisenhower | R | 1957–1961 | 52,888 | 52,932 | 53,683 | 54,387 | +795 | +1,455 | +0.37% | +0.68% |
| Kennedy John F. Kennedy John Fitzgerald "Jack" Kennedy , often referred to by his initials JFK, was the 35th President of the United States, serving from 1961 until his assassination in 1963.... /Johnson |
D | 1961–1965 | 53,683 | 54,387 | 59,583 | 61,490 | +5,900 | +7,103 | +2.64% | +3.12% |
| Lyndon Johnson | D | 1965–1969 | 59,583 | 61,490 | 69,438 | 70,918 | +9,855 | +9,428 | +3.90% | +3.63% |
| Richard Nixon Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon was the 37th President of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. The only president to resign the office, Nixon had previously served as a US representative and senator from California and as the 36th Vice President of the United States from 1953 to 1961 under... |
R | 1969–1973 | 69,438 | 70,918 | 75,620 | 77,281 | +6,182 | +6,363 | +2.16% | +2.17% |
| Nixon Richard Nixon Richard Milhous Nixon was the 37th President of the United States, serving from 1969 to 1974. The only president to resign the office, Nixon had previously served as a US representative and senator from California and as the 36th Vice President of the United States from 1953 to 1961 under... /Ford Gerald Ford Gerald Rudolph "Jerry" Ford, Jr. was the 38th President of the United States, serving from 1974 to 1977, and the 40th Vice President of the United States serving from 1973 to 1974... |
R | 1973–1977 | 75,620 | 77,281 | 80,692 | 83,532 | +5,072 | +6,251 | +1.64% | +1.96% |
| Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter James Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr. is an American politician who served as the 39th President of the United States and was the recipient of the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize, the only U.S. President to have received the Prize after leaving office... |
D | 1977–1981 | 80,692 | 83,532 | 91,031 | 91,471 | +10,339 | +7,939 | +3.06% | +2.30% |
| Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor.... |
R | 1981–1985 | 91,031 | 91,471 | 96,353 | 98,023 | +5,322 | +6,552 | +1.43% | +1.75% |
| Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor.... |
R | 1985–1989 | 96,353 | 98,023 | 107,133 | 108,326 | +10,780 | +10,303 | +2.69% | +2.53% |
| George H. W. Bush George H. W. Bush George Herbert Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 41st President of the United States . He had previously served as the 43rd Vice President of the United States , a congressman, an ambassador, and Director of Central Intelligence.Bush was born in Milton, Massachusetts, to... |
R | 1989–1993 | 107,133 | 108,326 | 109,725 | 111,360 | +2,592 | +3,034 | +0.60% | +0.69% |
| Bill Clinton Bill Clinton William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation... |
D | 1993–1997 | 109,725 | 111,360 | 121,231 | 123,417 | +11,506 | +12,057 | +2.52% | +2.60% |
| Bill Clinton Bill Clinton William Jefferson "Bill" Clinton is an American politician who served as the 42nd President of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Inaugurated at age 46, he was the third-youngest president. He took office at the end of the Cold War, and was the first president of the baby boomer generation... |
D | 1997–2001 | 121,231 | 123,417 | 132,469 | 131,518 | +11,238 | +8,101 | +2.24% | +1.60% |
| George W. Bush George W. Bush George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000.... |
R | 2001–2005 | 132,469 | 131,518 | 132,453 | 134,237 | -16 | +2,719 | -0.00% | +0.51% |
| George W. Bush George W. Bush George Walker Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd President of the United States, from 2001 to 2009. Before that, he was the 46th Governor of Texas, having served from 1995 to 2000.... |
R | 2005–2009 | 132,453 | 134,237 | 133,563 | 129,726 | +1,110 | -4,511 | +0.21% | -0.85% |
| Barack Obama Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II is the 44th and current President of the United States. He is the first African American to hold the office. Obama previously served as a United States Senator from Illinois, from January 2005 until he resigned following his victory in the 2008 presidential election.Born in... |
D | 2009–2013 | 133,563 | 129,726 | 130,328 (through 2011) |
131,334 (through 2011) |
-3,235 (through 2011) |
+1,608 (through 2011) |
-1.22% (through 2011) |
+0.62% (through 2011) |
For information on the United States public debt
United States public debt
The United States public debt is the money borrowed by the federal government of the United States at any one time through the issue of securities by the Treasury and other federal government agencies...
divided by Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product
Gross domestic product refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period. GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of a country's standard of living....
by Presidential term, see National Debt by U.S. presidential terms
National debt by U.S. presidential terms
In the United States, national debt is money borrowed by the federal government of the United States. Debt burden is usually measured as a ratio of public debt to gross domestic product; the U.S. debt/GDP ratio reached a maximum during World War II near the beginning of President Harry Truman's...