Micromort
Encyclopedia
A micromort is a unit of risk
measuring a one-in-a-million probability
of death
(from micro- and mortality). Micromorts can be used to measure riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was introduced by Ronald A. Howard
who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis
.
The number of micromorts per day is one million divided by that number of days; in this case, about 39 micromorts acquired individually every day. The number of micromorts per hour is divided by 24 hours; that is about 1.63 micromorts per hour. This is just an average across an entire population: the number of micromorts per day will vary across different categories of people, such as by age, sex and lifestyle.
An alternative way of getting the same figure is to take the number of people dying each day in the UK (about 2500), and divide it by the total population (60 million). These figures include all deaths. When natural deaths are excluded, the result measures the risk of premature death, which is roughly one micromort per day. In the UK, approximately 50 people die each day, on average, from non-natural causes
.
Increase in death risk for other activities on a per event basis:
Risk
Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity will lead to a loss . The notion implies that a choice having an influence on the outcome exists . Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks"...
measuring a one-in-a-million probability
Probability
Probability is ordinarily used to describe an attitude of mind towards some proposition of whose truth we arenot certain. The proposition of interest is usually of the form "Will a specific event occur?" The attitude of mind is of the form "How certain are we that the event will occur?" The...
of death
Death
Death is the permanent termination of the biological functions that sustain a living organism. Phenomena which commonly bring about death include old age, predation, malnutrition, disease, and accidents or trauma resulting in terminal injury....
(from micro- and mortality). Micromorts can be used to measure riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was introduced by Ronald A. Howard
Ronald A. Howard
Ronald A. Howard has been a professor at Stanford University since 1965. In 1964 he defined the profession of decision analysis, and since then has been developing the field as professor in the Department of Engineering-Economic Systems in the School of Engineering at Stanford.Howard directs...
who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis
Decision analysis
Decision analysis is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner...
.
Money
An application of micromorts is measuring the value that humans place on risk: for example, one can consider the amount of money one would have to pay a person to get him or her to accept a one-in-a-million chance of death (or conversely the amount that someone might be willing to pay to avoid a one-in-a-million chance of death). When put thus, people claim a high number but when inferred from their day-to-day actions (e.g., how much they are willing to pay for safety features on cars) a typical value is around $50 (in 2009).Baseline
The average risk of dying per day can be calculated from the average lifetime. Assuming this is 70 years, that means there is one death for every 25,550 days lived (70 x 365 = 25,550).The number of micromorts per day is one million divided by that number of days; in this case, about 39 micromorts acquired individually every day. The number of micromorts per hour is divided by 24 hours; that is about 1.63 micromorts per hour. This is just an average across an entire population: the number of micromorts per day will vary across different categories of people, such as by age, sex and lifestyle.
An alternative way of getting the same figure is to take the number of people dying each day in the UK (about 2500), and divide it by the total population (60 million). These figures include all deaths. When natural deaths are excluded, the result measures the risk of premature death, which is roughly one micromort per day. In the UK, approximately 50 people die each day, on average, from non-natural causes
.
Additional
Activities that increase the death risk by one micromort, and their associated cause of death:- smoking 1.4 cigarettes (cancer, heart disease)
- drinking 0.5 liter of wine (cirrhosis of the liver)
- spending 1 hour in a coal mine (black lung disease)
- spending 3 hours in a coal mine (accident)
- living 2 days in New York or Boston (air pollution)
- living 2 months in Denver (cancer from cosmic radiation)
- living 2 months with a smoker (cancer, heart disease)
- drinking Miami water for 1 year (cancer from chloroform)
- living 5 years at the boundary of a nuclear power plant (cancer from radiation)
- living 150 years within 20 miles of a nuclear power plant (cancer from radiation)
- eating 100 charcoal-broiled steaks (cancer from benzopyrene)
- eating 40 tablespoons of peanut butter (liver cancer from AflatoxinAflatoxinAflatoxins are naturally occurring mycotoxins that are produced by many species of Aspergillus, a fungus, the most notable ones being Aspergillus flavus and Aspergillus parasiticus. Aflatoxins are toxic and among the most carcinogenic substances known...
B) - eating 1000 bananas, (cancer from radioactive 1 kBEDBanana equivalent doseA banana equivalent dose is a whimsical unit of radiation exposure, informally defined as the additional dose a person will absorb from eating one banana...
of Potassium-40Potassium-40Potassium-40 is a radioactive isotope of potassium which has a very long half-life of 1.248 years, or about 39.38 seconds.Potassium-40 is a rare example of an isotope which undergoes all three types of beta decay. About 89.28% of the time, it decays to calcium-40 with emission of a beta particle...
) - travelling 6 minutes by canoe (accident)
- travelling 6 miles by motorbike (accident)
- travelling 17 miles by walking (accident)
- travelling 10 miles (or 20 miles) by bicycle (accident)
- travelling 230 miles (370 km) by car (accident) (or 250 miles)
- travelling 6000 miles (9656 km) by train (accident)
- flying 1000 miles (1609 km) by jet (accident)
- flying 6000 miles (9656 km) by jet (cancer from cosmic radiation)
- receiving one 10mrem chest X-ray in a good hospital (cancer from radiation)
- taking 1 ecstasyMethylenedioxymethamphetamineMDMA is an entactogenic drug of the phenethylamine and amphetamine class of drugs. In popular culture, MDMA has become widely known as "ecstasy" , usually referring to its street pill form, although this term may also include the presence of possible adulterants...
tablet
Increase in death risk for other activities on a per event basis:
- Hang glidingHang glidingHang gliding is an air sport in which a pilot flies a light and unmotorized foot-launchable aircraft called a hang glider ....
- 8 micromorts per trip - Scuba divingScuba divingScuba diving is a form of underwater diving in which a diver uses a scuba set to breathe underwater....
- 4.72 micromorts per dive - Skydiving (in the US) - 17.5 micromorts per jump