Mierscheid Law
Encyclopedia
The Mierscheid law is hypothesis
, published in the German magazine Vorwärts
on 14 July 1983 and attributed to the fictitious politician Jakob Maria Mierscheid
. It forecasts the Social Democratic Party of Germany
(SPD)'s share of the popular vote based on the size of crude steel production in Western Germany:
There is a special rule for early elections. One then has to take the arithmetic mean of the regular and early year of election.
The last corroboration of the law was in the 2002 election, where the West German crude steel production was 38.6 million tonnes, and the vote share of the SPD 38.5%. For the early election in 2005 the vote share was 38.4%, with a mean crude steel value of 40.0 million tonnes. Over the last ten elections, the two values were within two units nine times, and within one unit seven times.
of 18 September 2005 (which were originally due to be held in 2006), the law appeared not to hold, since the SPD obtained 34.3% of the relevant votes while the crude steel production of the "old" Länder (i.e. those states that belonged to the Federal Republic of Germany before reunification) in the previous year was 39.9 million tonnes.
However, an article attributed to Jakob Mierscheid, published on the German Federal Parliament's
website provided a correction to the hypothesis, to take account of the special situation. Since the elections had been brought forward, it was argued that the last months of the year should be discounted, yielding a steel production figure of 33.5 million tonnes. The graph included in the article showed a good match, thus supporting the (corrected) hypothesis. This ad hoc
hypothesis alteration might be considered an example of the Texas sharpshooter fallacy
.
Following the 2005 elections
, an article was published by the statistical office of the state of Baden-Württemberg
attempting to further refine the model in the form of the Mierscheid-Walla Law. This article also mentions promising but inconclusive attempts to replace steel production with other measures that exhibited a degree of apparent correlation
, such as the export value of automobiles, employment levels in the field of legal advice, the price of coffee, and the number of accidents on town roads.
Hypothesis
A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. The term derives from the Greek, ὑποτιθέναι – hypotithenai meaning "to put under" or "to suppose". For a hypothesis to be put forward as a scientific hypothesis, the scientific method requires that one can test it...
, published in the German magazine Vorwärts
Vorwärts
Vorwärts was the central organ of the Social Democratic Party of Germany published daily in Berlin from 1891 to 1933 by decision of the party's Halle Congress, as the successor of Berliner Volksblatt, founded in 1884....
on 14 July 1983 and attributed to the fictitious politician Jakob Maria Mierscheid
Jakob Maria Mierscheid
Jakob Maria Mierscheid MdB has been a fictitious politician in the German Bundestag since 11 December 1979. He was then the alleged deputy chairman of the Mittelstandsausschuss of the Bundestag in 1981 and 1982...
. It forecasts the Social Democratic Party of Germany
Social Democratic Party of Germany
The Social Democratic Party of Germany is a social-democratic political party in Germany...
(SPD)'s share of the popular vote based on the size of crude steel production in Western Germany:
There is a special rule for early elections. One then has to take the arithmetic mean of the regular and early year of election.
The last corroboration of the law was in the 2002 election, where the West German crude steel production was 38.6 million tonnes, and the vote share of the SPD 38.5%. For the early election in 2005 the vote share was 38.4%, with a mean crude steel value of 40.0 million tonnes. Over the last ten elections, the two values were within two units nine times, and within one unit seven times.
Possible refutation of the hypothesis in 2005
In the German federal electionsGerman federal election, 2005
German federal elections took place on 18 September 2005 to elect the members of the 16th German Bundestag, the federal parliament of Germany. They became necessary after a motion of confidence in Chancellor Gerhard Schröder failed on 1 July...
of 18 September 2005 (which were originally due to be held in 2006), the law appeared not to hold, since the SPD obtained 34.3% of the relevant votes while the crude steel production of the "old" Länder (i.e. those states that belonged to the Federal Republic of Germany before reunification) in the previous year was 39.9 million tonnes.
However, an article attributed to Jakob Mierscheid, published on the German Federal Parliament's
Bundestag
The Bundestag is a federal legislative body in Germany. In practice Germany is governed by a bicameral legislature, of which the Bundestag serves as the lower house and the Bundesrat the upper house. The Bundestag is established by the German Basic Law of 1949, as the successor to the earlier...
website provided a correction to the hypothesis, to take account of the special situation. Since the elections had been brought forward, it was argued that the last months of the year should be discounted, yielding a steel production figure of 33.5 million tonnes. The graph included in the article showed a good match, thus supporting the (corrected) hypothesis. This ad hoc
Ad hoc
Ad hoc is a Latin phrase meaning "for this". It generally signifies a solution designed for a specific problem or task, non-generalizable, and not intended to be able to be adapted to other purposes. Compare A priori....
hypothesis alteration might be considered an example of the Texas sharpshooter fallacy
Texas sharpshooter fallacy
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is a logical fallacy in which pieces of information that have no relationship to one another are called out for their similarities, and that similarity is used for claiming the existence of a pattern. This fallacy is the philosophical/rhetorical application of the...
.
Following the 2005 elections
German federal election, 2005
German federal elections took place on 18 September 2005 to elect the members of the 16th German Bundestag, the federal parliament of Germany. They became necessary after a motion of confidence in Chancellor Gerhard Schröder failed on 1 July...
, an article was published by the statistical office of the state of Baden-Württemberg
Baden-Württemberg
Baden-Württemberg is one of the 16 states of Germany. Baden-Württemberg is in the southwestern part of the country to the east of the Upper Rhine, and is the third largest in both area and population of Germany's sixteen states, with an area of and 10.7 million inhabitants...
attempting to further refine the model in the form of the Mierscheid-Walla Law. This article also mentions promising but inconclusive attempts to replace steel production with other measures that exhibited a degree of apparent correlation
Correlation
In statistics, dependence refers to any statistical relationship between two random variables or two sets of data. Correlation refers to any of a broad class of statistical relationships involving dependence....
, such as the export value of automobiles, employment levels in the field of legal advice, the price of coffee, and the number of accidents on town roads.