National Weather Service bulletin for New Orleans region
Encyclopedia
The National Weather Service bulletin for the New Orleans region of 10:11 a.m., August 28, 2005 was a vividly worded release issued by the local Weather Forecast Office
in Slidell, Louisiana
, warning of the devastation that the Gulf Coast of the United States
could experience as a result of Hurricane Katrina
. Partly due to this bulletin, people in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi
, those most affected by the storm's impact, followed evacuation orders more closely, resulting in a reduced casualty toll.
as a Category 1 hurricane
near the Miami-Dade–Broward county line in southern Florida
and weakened into a tropical storm as a result. The next morning, after passing over the state, Tropical Storm Katrina moved into the Gulf of Mexico
, reintensified back to hurricane strength, and due to the warm waters of the Loop Current
, began undergoing rapid deepening
.
At 11:00 p.m. EDT
August 26, approximately 56 hours before Katrina's landfall near Buras, Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center
had predicted that the Greater New Orleans area
could face a direct hit by the storm. As New Orleans is located on the Mississippi River Delta
and parts of the city are below sea level
, a strong hurricane could have a devastating effect on the city. Previous warnings, such as the one made by the Houston Chronicle
in 2001, told of a disaster that "would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet of water" following a severe hurricane making landfall on the city. The National Hurricane Center
's director, Max Mayfield
, indicated that the Mississippi/Louisiana area has "the greatest potential for nightmare scenarios," and that this has been known for at least the three decades he has worked at the NHC. Other publications, such as Popular Mechanics
, Scientific American
, and The Times-Picayune gave doomsday scenarios in which a sinking city would drown and its residents would be left homeless.
In 1965, Hurricane Betsy
made landfall just south of New Orleans, causing widespread flooding in the city. As a result, a system of levee
s was authorized by Congress
to handle future storm events. However, the protection given by this system was limited to hurricanes up to Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
.
Three days before Katrina's second and third landfalls, the National Hurricane Center began predicting that the storm would make landfall as a major hurricane. By the next morning, on August 27, the NHC issued a hurricane watch that included the New Orleans metro area, which was upgraded to a hurricane warning by 10:00 p.m. CDT that same evening. At this point, Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds and about 335 miles (540 km) to the south-southeast of the Mississippi River's mouth.
appointed a bipartisan
committee to investigate the response to Hurricane Katrina and the preparations prior to its landfall. The committee concluded that the forecasts given by the National Weather Service were timely, were not responsible for failures in other agencies, and were likely responsible for saving thousands of lives.
During an internal assessment by the National Weather Service, the 10:11 bulletin and its impact were analyzed. The report called the bulletin "a significant moment for the NWS during Katrina," as its detailed and explicit language did not have any previous precedent (though the message was based on a template
designed by the Tampa
Weather Office in the 1990s). The strongly worded statement urged residents to evacuate, and was highlighted by national news media. As a result, the level of detail was highlighted as an "innovative best practice" in the NWS assessment, which recommended issuing warnings with similar levels of detail in the future. The bulletin was described as "perhaps the most chilling ever issued by the service".
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service , once known as the Weather Bureau, is one of the six scientific agencies that make up the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States government...
in Slidell, Louisiana
Slidell, Louisiana
Slidell is a city situated on the northeast shore of Lake Pontchartrain in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana, United States. The population was 25,695 at the 2000 census. The Greater Slidell Community has a population of about 90,000...
, warning of the devastation that the Gulf Coast of the United States
Gulf Coast of the United States
The Gulf Coast of the United States, sometimes referred to as the Gulf South, South Coast, or 3rd Coast, comprises the coasts of American states that are on the Gulf of Mexico, which includes Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida and are known as the Gulf States...
could experience as a result of Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina
Hurricane Katrina of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was a powerful Atlantic hurricane. It is the costliest natural disaster, as well as one of the five deadliest hurricanes, in the history of the United States. Among recorded Atlantic hurricanes, it was the sixth strongest overall...
. Partly due to this bulletin, people in southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi is a U.S. state located in the Southern United States. Jackson is the state capital and largest city. The name of the state derives from the Mississippi River, which flows along its western boundary, whose name comes from the Ojibwe word misi-ziibi...
, those most affected by the storm's impact, followed evacuation orders more closely, resulting in a reduced casualty toll.
Background
On the evening of August 25, 2005, Hurricane Katrina made landfallLandfall (meteorology)
Landfall is the event of a tropical cyclone or a waterspout coming onto land after being over water. When a waterspout makes landfall it is reclassified as a tornado, which can then cause damage inland...
as a Category 1 hurricane
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale , or the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale , classifies hurricanes — Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms — into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds...
near the Miami-Dade–Broward county line in southern Florida
Florida
Florida is a state in the southeastern United States, located on the nation's Atlantic and Gulf coasts. It is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the north by Alabama and Georgia and to the east by the Atlantic Ocean. With a population of 18,801,310 as measured by the 2010 census, it...
and weakened into a tropical storm as a result. The next morning, after passing over the state, Tropical Storm Katrina moved into the Gulf of Mexico
Gulf of Mexico
The Gulf of Mexico is a partially landlocked ocean basin largely surrounded by the North American continent and the island of Cuba. It is bounded on the northeast, north and northwest by the Gulf Coast of the United States, on the southwest and south by Mexico, and on the southeast by Cuba. In...
, reintensified back to hurricane strength, and due to the warm waters of the Loop Current
Loop Current
A parent to the Florida Current, the Loop Current is a warm ocean current in the Gulf of Mexico that flows northward between Cuba and the Yucatán peninsula, moves north into the Gulf of Mexico, loops east and south before exiting to the east through the Florida Straits and joining the Gulf Stream.A...
, began undergoing rapid deepening
Rapid deepening
Rapid deepening, also known as rapid intensification, is a meteorological condition that occurs when the minimum sea-level atmospheric pressure of a tropical cyclone decreases drastically in a short period of time. The National Weather Service describes rapid deepening as a decrease of...
.
At 11:00 p.m. EDT
Eastern Time Zone
The Eastern Time Zone of the United States and Canada is a time zone that falls mostly along the east coast of North America. Its UTC time offset is −5 hrs during standard time and −4 hrs during daylight saving time...
August 26, approximately 56 hours before Katrina's landfall near Buras, Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center , located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida, is the division of the National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th...
had predicted that the Greater New Orleans area
New Orleans metropolitan area
New Orleans–Metairie–Kenner, or the Greater New Orleans Region is a metropolitan area designated by the United States Census encompassing seven parishes in the state of Louisiana, centering on the city of New Orleans...
could face a direct hit by the storm. As New Orleans is located on the Mississippi River Delta
Mississippi River Delta
The Mississippi River Delta is the modern area of land built up by alluvium deposited by the Mississippi River as it slows down and enters the Gulf of Mexico...
and parts of the city are below sea level
Sea level
Mean sea level is a measure of the average height of the ocean's surface ; used as a standard in reckoning land elevation...
, a strong hurricane could have a devastating effect on the city. Previous warnings, such as the one made by the Houston Chronicle
Houston Chronicle
The Houston Chronicle is the largest daily newspaper in Texas, USA, headquartered in the Houston Chronicle Building in Downtown Houston. , it is the ninth-largest newspaper by circulation in the United States...
in 2001, told of a disaster that "would strand 250,000 people or more, and probably kill one of 10 left behind as the city drowned under 20 feet of water" following a severe hurricane making landfall on the city. The National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center , located at Florida International University in Miami, Florida, is the division of the National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting weather systems within the tropics between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th...
's director, Max Mayfield
Max Mayfield
Britt Max Mayfield is a meteorologist who served as the director of the National Hurricane Center from 2000 to 2007...
, indicated that the Mississippi/Louisiana area has "the greatest potential for nightmare scenarios," and that this has been known for at least the three decades he has worked at the NHC. Other publications, such as Popular Mechanics
Popular Mechanics
Popular Mechanics is an American magazine first published January 11, 1902 by H. H. Windsor, and has been owned since 1958 by the Hearst Corporation...
, Scientific American
Scientific American
Scientific American is a popular science magazine. It is notable for its long history of presenting science monthly to an educated but not necessarily scientific public, through its careful attention to the clarity of its text as well as the quality of its specially commissioned color graphics...
, and The Times-Picayune gave doomsday scenarios in which a sinking city would drown and its residents would be left homeless.
In 1965, Hurricane Betsy
Hurricane Betsy
Hurricane Betsy was a Category 4 hurricane of the 1965 Atlantic hurricane season which caused enormous damage in the Bahamas, Florida, and Louisiana. Betsy made its most intense landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River, causing significant flooding of the waters of Lake Pontchartrain into...
made landfall just south of New Orleans, causing widespread flooding in the city. As a result, a system of levee
Levee
A levee, levée, dike , embankment, floodbank or stopbank is an elongated naturally occurring ridge or artificially constructed fill or wall, which regulates water levels...
s was authorized by Congress
United States Congress
The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Congress meets in the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C....
to handle future storm events. However, the protection given by this system was limited to hurricanes up to Category 3 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale , or the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale , classifies hurricanes — Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms — into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds...
.
Three days before Katrina's second and third landfalls, the National Hurricane Center began predicting that the storm would make landfall as a major hurricane. By the next morning, on August 27, the NHC issued a hurricane watch that included the New Orleans metro area, which was upgraded to a hurricane warning by 10:00 p.m. CDT that same evening. At this point, Katrina was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds and about 335 miles (540 km) to the south-southeast of the Mississippi River's mouth.
Bulletin text
On the night of August 27, Katrina underwent another episode of rapid deepening, strengthening to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175 mph (280 km/h) by 10:00 am CDT on August 28. A few minutes later, at 10:11 a.m. CDT (1511 UTC), Robert Ricks, a meteorologist with the New Orleans/Baton Rouge NWS office, issued the following statement: An equally-explicit bulletin was repeated at 4:13 p.m. CDT.Impact
In the months following the storm, CongressUnited States Congress
The United States Congress is the bicameral legislature of the federal government of the United States, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. The Congress meets in the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C....
appointed a bipartisan
Bipartisanship
Bipartisanship is a political situation, usually in the context of a two-party system such as the United States, in which opposing political parties find common ground through compromise. The adjective bipartisan can refer to any bill, act, resolution, or other political act in which both of the...
committee to investigate the response to Hurricane Katrina and the preparations prior to its landfall. The committee concluded that the forecasts given by the National Weather Service were timely, were not responsible for failures in other agencies, and were likely responsible for saving thousands of lives.
During an internal assessment by the National Weather Service, the 10:11 bulletin and its impact were analyzed. The report called the bulletin "a significant moment for the NWS during Katrina," as its detailed and explicit language did not have any previous precedent (though the message was based on a template
Template (word processing)
The term template, when used in the context of word processing software,refers to a sample "fill-in-the-blank" document that can be completed either by handor through an automated iterative process, such as with a software assistant. Once...
designed by the Tampa
Tampa, Florida
Tampa is a city in the U.S. state of Florida. It serves as the county seat for Hillsborough County. Tampa is located on the west coast of Florida. The population of Tampa in 2010 was 335,709....
Weather Office in the 1990s). The strongly worded statement urged residents to evacuate, and was highlighted by national news media. As a result, the level of detail was highlighted as an "innovative best practice" in the NWS assessment, which recommended issuing warnings with similar levels of detail in the future. The bulletin was described as "perhaps the most chilling ever issued by the service".
See also
- Effects of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans
- Tropical cyclone watches and warnings