NewsFutures
Encyclopedia
Prediction markets company NewsFutures (2000-2010) has evolved into Lumenogic, "a consulting firm that specializes in developing and customizing online systems for large organizations to use to gather so-called Collective Intelligence
from their employees."
Founded in May 2000 by Emile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick, NewsFutures, Inc. was one of the earliest providers of prediction markets to both the general public and private companies. It played a leading role in applying collective intelligence and prediction markets to business forecasting, innovation and decision making. It was one of several companies that help large corporations set up private prediction markets to capture the collective foresight of their employees or client base, as described in James Surowiecki
's book The Wisdom of Crowds
. NewsFutures is one the few prediction market companies cited in the book.
From September 2000 to October 2009, NewsFutures operated one of the best known prediction market games on the Web, listing contracts on over 120,000 events on a wide variety of topics in current events, politics, finance and sports. The accuracy of its predictions was recognized by James "wisdom of crowds" Surowiecki himself, when he wrote in the New Yorker in 2003: «In a sense, the NewsFutures traders are only trying to do what op-ed writers, TV pundits, and Presidential advisers attempt to do every day: predict the future. The big difference is that the markets are far more likely to be right.». In his book, Surowiecki called it one of "the two most important online trading sites," the other being Intrade
.
NewsFutures founder Emile Servan-Schreiber, a son of famed journalist and politician Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber
, has been a leading proponent the idea that prediction markets should be viewed as "quasi journalistic" ventures, i.e., that their predictions are newsworthy content.
The NewsFutures market had a distinctive international flavor because it also operated markets in French and in Hungarian, enabling U.S.-based players to trade with European counterparts, each in their own language. From November 2001 to January 2004, USA Today co-branded the NewsFutures Sports and Money prediction markets.
During the 2003-2004 National Football League
season, the play-money predictions of NewsFutures were systematically compared to the real-money predictions of TradeSports
(now Intrade
) and found to be just as accurate. This result contradicted the conventional wisdom that "putting your money where your mouth is" should enhance prediction market accuracy', and it has served to enhance the credibility of play-money markets and boost their adoption in enterprise contexts where real-money betting is illegal.
NewsFutures has also launched in 2007 the first charity-driven prediction market, Bet2Give, where real money was being wagered but all profits must be given to charities of the winner's choice. The Bet2Give experiment folded in June 2011 for lack of participants.
Collective intelligence
Collective intelligence is a shared or group intelligence that emerges from the collaboration and competition of many individuals and appears in consensus decision making in bacteria, animals, humans and computer networks....
from their employees."
Founded in May 2000 by Emile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick, NewsFutures, Inc. was one of the earliest providers of prediction markets to both the general public and private companies. It played a leading role in applying collective intelligence and prediction markets to business forecasting, innovation and decision making. It was one of several companies that help large corporations set up private prediction markets to capture the collective foresight of their employees or client base, as described in James Surowiecki
James Surowiecki
James Michael Surowiecki is an American journalist. He is a staff writer at The New Yorker, where he writes a regular column on business and finance called "The Financial Page".-Background:...
's book The Wisdom of Crowds
The Wisdom of Crowds
The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better...
. NewsFutures is one the few prediction market companies cited in the book.
From September 2000 to October 2009, NewsFutures operated one of the best known prediction market games on the Web, listing contracts on over 120,000 events on a wide variety of topics in current events, politics, finance and sports. The accuracy of its predictions was recognized by James "wisdom of crowds" Surowiecki himself, when he wrote in the New Yorker in 2003: «In a sense, the NewsFutures traders are only trying to do what op-ed writers, TV pundits, and Presidential advisers attempt to do every day: predict the future. The big difference is that the markets are far more likely to be right.». In his book, Surowiecki called it one of "the two most important online trading sites," the other being Intrade
Intrade
Intrade is an online trading exchange website. The website's members speculate on the outcomes of non-sports-related future events. Intrade was founded by John Delaney in 2001 and acquired by Tradesports in 2003. Dublin-based owner Trade Exchange Network Limited also operated TradeBetX.com, which...
.
NewsFutures founder Emile Servan-Schreiber, a son of famed journalist and politician Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber
Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber
Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, often referred to as JJSS was a French journalist and politician. He co-founded L'Express in 1953 with Françoise Giroud, and then went on to become president of the Radical Party in 1971...
, has been a leading proponent the idea that prediction markets should be viewed as "quasi journalistic" ventures, i.e., that their predictions are newsworthy content.
The NewsFutures market had a distinctive international flavor because it also operated markets in French and in Hungarian, enabling U.S.-based players to trade with European counterparts, each in their own language. From November 2001 to January 2004, USA Today co-branded the NewsFutures Sports and Money prediction markets.
During the 2003-2004 National Football League
National Football League
The National Football League is the highest level of professional American football in the United States, and is considered the top professional American football league in the world. It was formed by eleven teams in 1920 as the American Professional Football Association, with the league changing...
season, the play-money predictions of NewsFutures were systematically compared to the real-money predictions of TradeSports
TradeSports
Tradesports was an online trading exchange website whose members speculate on the outcomes of future sports events. Founded by John Delaney in 2000, and located in Dublin, Ireland, by 2005 it reported 50,000 members and an average monthly volume of four million trades.Tradesports' sister website,...
(now Intrade
Intrade
Intrade is an online trading exchange website. The website's members speculate on the outcomes of non-sports-related future events. Intrade was founded by John Delaney in 2001 and acquired by Tradesports in 2003. Dublin-based owner Trade Exchange Network Limited also operated TradeBetX.com, which...
) and found to be just as accurate. This result contradicted the conventional wisdom that "putting your money where your mouth is" should enhance prediction market accuracy', and it has served to enhance the credibility of play-money markets and boost their adoption in enterprise contexts where real-money betting is illegal.
NewsFutures has also launched in 2007 the first charity-driven prediction market, Bet2Give, where real money was being wagered but all profits must be given to charities of the winner's choice. The Bet2Give experiment folded in June 2011 for lack of participants.