Nuclear attribution
Encyclopedia
Nuclear attribution is the process of tracing the origin of nuclear material
that has been used in a nuclear explosion
. The problem is not necessarily a straightforward one, for it may be possible to obtain nuclear precursors
through the black market
, and therefore relatively anonymously. Attribution to the source is desirable due to the trend of nuclear proliferation
. Nuclear capability has expanded from only a couple of states, to where a terrorist group could make a bomb with only partial state backing. The United States
has demonstrated its interest in nuclear attribution by passing the Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act, which calls for the development of attribution capabilities.
. The first step in this process is field work. Radiation levels can be quickly determined in the field using dosimetry
. Reports from local survivors help provide visual evidence. The early data from the field, in addition to seismic data, can be used to establish that the bomb was actually nuclear and estimate its yield
. The gathered samples will be shipped to laboratories and analyzed using isotope analysis
and other methods. The isotopic signature
can then be compared with known isotopic data and the likely history of the nuclear material can be pieced together.
and intelligence
. This involves the monitoring of lost nuclear material, as well as known or suspected enrichment facilities. The latter is often done with satellite imagery
. This data can be compared with the forensic evidence to increase the probability of accuracy.
, it will be difficult to specifically determine the source of the nuclear material. Analysis may consist more of places that are likely not to be the source, than specifically where it from. This will reduce its usefulness to political leaders who have to make quick decisions. Collecting the samples themselves will be difficult in the event of a nuclear explosion. The local infrastructure
will likely be overwhelmed and may not be able to respondly quickly enough to gather fresh data. The environment will likely also be highly radioactive, especially if a dirty bomb
is used. Getting trained humans on site could be prohibitively difficult. Another problem is that the process of nuclear attribution takes time. Political pressure could dictate a response from leaders far before the months it may take to conduct a full analysis of the source material.
Nuclear material
Nuclear material refers to the metals uranium, plutonium, and thorium, in any form, according to the IAEA. This is differentiated further into "source material", consisting of natural and depleted uranium, and "special fissionable material", consisting of enriched uranium , uranium-233, and...
that has been used in a nuclear explosion
Nuclear explosion
A nuclear explosion occurs as a result of the rapid release of energy from an intentionally high-speed nuclear reaction. The driving reaction may be nuclear fission, nuclear fusion or a multistage cascading combination of the two, though to date all fusion based weapons have used a fission device...
. The problem is not necessarily a straightforward one, for it may be possible to obtain nuclear precursors
Precursor (chemistry)
In chemistry, a precursor is a compound that participates in the chemical reaction that produces another compound. In biochemistry, the term "precursor" is used more specifically to refer to a chemical compound preceding another in a metabolic pathway....
through the black market
Underground economy
A black market or underground economy is a market in goods or services which operates outside the formal one supported by established state power. Typically the totality of such activity is referred to with the definite article as a complement to the official economies, by market for such goods and...
, and therefore relatively anonymously. Attribution to the source is desirable due to the trend of nuclear proliferation
Nuclear proliferation
Nuclear proliferation is a term now used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons, fissile material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information, to nations which are not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also known as the...
. Nuclear capability has expanded from only a couple of states, to where a terrorist group could make a bomb with only partial state backing. The United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
has demonstrated its interest in nuclear attribution by passing the Nuclear Forensics and Attribution Act, which calls for the development of attribution capabilities.
Nuclear Forensics
A primary method used in nuclear attribution is nuclear forensicsForensics
Forensic science is the application of a broad spectrum of sciences to answer questions of interest to a legal system. This may be in relation to a crime or a civil action...
. The first step in this process is field work. Radiation levels can be quickly determined in the field using dosimetry
Dosimetry
Radiation dosimetry is the measurement and calculation of the absorbed dose in matter and tissue resulting from the exposure to indirect and direct ionizing radiation...
. Reports from local survivors help provide visual evidence. The early data from the field, in addition to seismic data, can be used to establish that the bomb was actually nuclear and estimate its yield
Yield
-Physics/chemistry:* Yield , the amount of product obtained in a chemical reaction** The arrow symbol in a chemical equation* Fission product yield* Nuclear weapon yield-Earth science:* Crop yield** Yield...
. The gathered samples will be shipped to laboratories and analyzed using isotope analysis
Isotope analysis
Isotope analysis is the identification of isotopic signature, the distribution of certain stable isotopes and chemical elements within chemical compounds. This can be applied to a food web to make it possible to draw direct inferences regarding diet, trophic level, and subsistence...
and other methods. The isotopic signature
Isotopic signature
An isotopic signature is a ratio of stable or unstable isotopes of particular elements found in an investigated material...
can then be compared with known isotopic data and the likely history of the nuclear material can be pieced together.
Intelligence
Another aspect of nuclear attribution is the use of law enforcementLaw enforcement
Law enforcement broadly refers to any system by which some members of society act in an organized manner to promote adherence to the law by discovering and punishing persons who violate the rules and norms governing that society...
and intelligence
Intelligence (information gathering)
Intelligence assessment is the development of forecasts of behaviour or recommended courses of action to the leadership of an organization, based on a wide range of available information sources both overt and covert. Assessments are developed in response to requirements declared by the leadership...
. This involves the monitoring of lost nuclear material, as well as known or suspected enrichment facilities. The latter is often done with satellite imagery
Satellite imagery
Satellite imagery consists of photographs of Earth or other planets made by means of artificial satellites.- History :The first images from space were taken on sub-orbital flights. The U.S-launched V-2 flight on October 24, 1946 took one image every 1.5 seconds...
. This data can be compared with the forensic evidence to increase the probability of accuracy.
Problems
The goal of nuclear attribution is to pinpoint the source of nuclear material with a credible level of accuracy. This faces a number of practical difficulties. First is that the lab work relies on comparing gathered samples to samples that have already been analyzed. Until there is significant international cooperation to develop a databaseDatabase
A database is an organized collection of data for one or more purposes, usually in digital form. The data are typically organized to model relevant aspects of reality , in a way that supports processes requiring this information...
, it will be difficult to specifically determine the source of the nuclear material. Analysis may consist more of places that are likely not to be the source, than specifically where it from. This will reduce its usefulness to political leaders who have to make quick decisions. Collecting the samples themselves will be difficult in the event of a nuclear explosion. The local infrastructure
Infrastructure
Infrastructure is basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise, or the services and facilities necessary for an economy to function...
will likely be overwhelmed and may not be able to respondly quickly enough to gather fresh data. The environment will likely also be highly radioactive, especially if a dirty bomb
Dirty bomb
A dirty bomb is a speculative radiological weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives. The purpose of the weapon is to contaminate the area around the explosion with radioactive material, hence the attribute "dirty"....
is used. Getting trained humans on site could be prohibitively difficult. Another problem is that the process of nuclear attribution takes time. Political pressure could dictate a response from leaders far before the months it may take to conduct a full analysis of the source material.