Nuclear utilization target selection
Encyclopedia
Nuclear utilization target selection (NUTS) is a theory
regarding the use of nuclear weapons often contrasted with mutually assured destruction (MAD)
. NUTS theory at its most basic level asserts that it is possible for a limited nuclear exchange to occur and that nuclear weapons are simply one more rung on the ladder of escalation pioneered by Herman Kahn
. This leads to a number of other conclusions regarding the potential uses of and responses to nuclear weapons.
capability would require the ability to launch a 100% effective (or nearly so) counterforce attack. Such an attack is made more difficult by systems such as early warning radars which allow the possibility for rapid recognition and response to a nuclear attack and by systems such as submarine-launched ballistic missile
s or road-mobile nuclear missiles (such as the Soviet SS-20) which make nuclear weapons harder to locate and target.
Since a limited nuclear war is a viable option for a NUTS theorist, the power to unleash such attacks holds a great deal of appeal. However, establishing such a capability is very expensive. A counterforce
weapon requires a much more accurate warhead than a countervalue
weapon, as it must be guaranteed to detonate very close to its target, which drastically increases relative costs.
is not credible in cases of a small attack, such as one carried out on a single city, as it is suicidal. In such a case, an overwhelming nuclear response would destroy every enemy city and thus every potential hostage which could be used to influence the attacker's behavior. This would free up the attacker to launch further attacks with and remove any chance for the attacked nation to bargain. A country adhering to a NUTS-style war plan would likely respond to such an attack with a limited attack on one or several enemy cities.
(CEP) of about 90 meters for the former and 120 meters for the latter. These weapons are accurate enough to almost certainly destroy a missile silo if it is targeted.
Additionally, the US has proceeded with a number of programs which improve its strategic situation in a nuclear confrontation. The Stealth Bomber
has the capacity to carry a large number of stealthy cruise missiles, which could be nuclear tipped, and due to its low probability of detection and long range would be an excellent weapon with which to deliver a first strike.
Unlike several other nuclear powers, the United States has never made a no first use
pledge, maintaining that pledging not to use nuclear weapons before an opponent would undermine their deterrent. NATO plans for war with the USSR called for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order to counter Soviet numerical superiority.
Theory
The English word theory was derived from a technical term in Ancient Greek philosophy. The word theoria, , meant "a looking at, viewing, beholding", and referring to contemplation or speculation, as opposed to action...
regarding the use of nuclear weapons often contrasted with mutually assured destruction (MAD)
Mutual assured destruction
Mutual Assured Destruction, or mutually assured destruction , is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy in which a full-scale use of high-yield weapons of mass destruction by two opposing sides would effectively result in the complete, utter and irrevocable annihilation of...
. NUTS theory at its most basic level asserts that it is possible for a limited nuclear exchange to occur and that nuclear weapons are simply one more rung on the ladder of escalation pioneered by Herman Kahn
Herman Kahn
Herman Kahn was one of the preeminent futurists of the latter third of the twentieth century. In the early 1970s he predicted the rise of Japan as a major world power. He was a founder of the Hudson Institute think tank and originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems...
. This leads to a number of other conclusions regarding the potential uses of and responses to nuclear weapons.
Counterforce strikes
A counterforce strike consists of an attack on enemy nuclear weapons meant to destroy them before they can be utilized. A viable first strikeFirst strike
In nuclear strategy, a first strike is a preemptive surprise attack employing overwhelming force. First strike capability is a country's ability to defeat another nuclear power by destroying its arsenal to the point where the attacking country can survive the weakened retaliation while the opposing...
capability would require the ability to launch a 100% effective (or nearly so) counterforce attack. Such an attack is made more difficult by systems such as early warning radars which allow the possibility for rapid recognition and response to a nuclear attack and by systems such as submarine-launched ballistic missile
Submarine-launched ballistic missile
A submarine-launched ballistic missile is a ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead that can be launched from submarines. Modern variants usually deliver multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles each of which carries a warhead and allows a single launched missile to...
s or road-mobile nuclear missiles (such as the Soviet SS-20) which make nuclear weapons harder to locate and target.
Since a limited nuclear war is a viable option for a NUTS theorist, the power to unleash such attacks holds a great deal of appeal. However, establishing such a capability is very expensive. A counterforce
Counterforce
In nuclear strategy, a counterforce target is one that has a military value, such as a launch silo for intercontinental ballistic missiles, an airbase at which nuclear-armed bombers are stationed, a homeport for ballistic missile submarines, or a command and control installation...
weapon requires a much more accurate warhead than a countervalue
Countervalue
Countervalue is the targeting of an opponent's cities and civilian populations. In contrast, counterforce refers to the targeting of an opponent's military personnel, forces and facilities.-Theory:...
weapon, as it must be guaranteed to detonate very close to its target, which drastically increases relative costs.
Limited countervalue strikes
Some NUTS theorists hold that a mutually assured destruction-type deterrentDeterrence theory
Deterrence theory gained increased prominence as a military strategy during the Cold War with regard to the use of nuclear weapons, and features prominently in current United States foreign policy regarding the development of nuclear technology in North Korea and Iran. Deterrence theory however was...
is not credible in cases of a small attack, such as one carried out on a single city, as it is suicidal. In such a case, an overwhelming nuclear response would destroy every enemy city and thus every potential hostage which could be used to influence the attacker's behavior. This would free up the attacker to launch further attacks with and remove any chance for the attacked nation to bargain. A country adhering to a NUTS-style war plan would likely respond to such an attack with a limited attack on one or several enemy cities.
Missile defense
Since NUTS theory assumes the possibility of a winnable nuclear war, the contention of many MAD theorists that missile defense systems should be abandoned as a destabilizing influence is generally not accepted by NUTS theorists. For NUTS theorists, a missile defence system would be a positive force in that it would protect against a limited nuclear attack. Additionally, such a system would increase the odds of success for a counterforce attack by assuring that if some targets escaped the initial attack, the incoming missiles could be intercepted. But protection against a limited attack means that the opponent has incentive to launch a larger scale attack, against which the defence is likely to be effective. And increased possibility of success of counterforce attacks mean that the opponent has to act before their ability to do so is reduced, which increases the risk of a large scale response to misinterpreted signals.NUTS and US nuclear strategy
NUTS theory can be seen in the US adoption of a number of first strike weapons, such as the Trident II and Minuteman III nuclear missiles, which both have an extremely low circular error probableCircular error probable
In the military science of ballistics, circular error probable is an intuitive measure of a weapon system's precision...
(CEP) of about 90 meters for the former and 120 meters for the latter. These weapons are accurate enough to almost certainly destroy a missile silo if it is targeted.
Additionally, the US has proceeded with a number of programs which improve its strategic situation in a nuclear confrontation. The Stealth Bomber
B-2 Spirit
The Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit is an American heavy bomber with low observable stealth technology designed to penetrate dense anti-aircraft defenses and deploy both conventional and nuclear weapons. The bomber has a crew of two and can drop up to eighty -class JDAM GPS-guided bombs, or sixteen ...
has the capacity to carry a large number of stealthy cruise missiles, which could be nuclear tipped, and due to its low probability of detection and long range would be an excellent weapon with which to deliver a first strike.
Unlike several other nuclear powers, the United States has never made a no first use
No first use
No first use refers to a pledge or a policy by a nuclear power not to use nuclear weapons as a means of warfare unless first attacked by an adversary using nuclear weapons...
pledge, maintaining that pledging not to use nuclear weapons before an opponent would undermine their deterrent. NATO plans for war with the USSR called for the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order to counter Soviet numerical superiority.
See also
- Nuclear strategyNuclear strategyNuclear strategy involves the development of doctrines and strategies for the production and use of nuclear weapons.As a sub-branch of military strategy, nuclear strategy attempts to match nuclear weapons as means to political ends...
- Nuclear warfareNuclear warfareNuclear warfare, or atomic warfare, is a military conflict or political strategy in which nuclear weaponry is detonated on an opponent. Compared to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can be vastly more destructive in range and extent of damage...
- Ryszard KuklińskiRyszard KuklinskiRyszard Jerzy Kukliński was a Polish colonel, Cold War spy and whistleblower. He passed top secret Warsaw Pact documents to the CIA between 1971 and 1981...
- Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP)Single Integrated Operational PlanThe Single Integrated Operational Plan was the United States' general plan for nuclear war from 1961 to 2003. The SIOP gave the President of the United States a range of targeting options, and described launch procedures and target sets against which nuclear weapons would be launched...
- CARVER matrixCARVER matrixThe CARVER matrix was developed by the United States special operations forces during the Vietnam War. CARVER is an acronym that stands for Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect and Recognizability and is a system to identify and rank specific targets so that attack...