Oregon Petition
Encyclopedia
The Global Warming Petition Project, usually referred to as the Oregon Petition, is a petition opposing the Kyoto Protocol
and similar efforts to mitigate climate change. It was organized by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
(OISM), a non-profit organisation run by Arthur B. Robinson
, between 1999 and 2001 and was circulated again from late 2007 to early 2008. During the former period the United States was negotiating with other countries on implementation of the protocol before the Bush administration withdrew from the process in 2001. Former U.S. National Academy of Sciences
President Frederick Seitz
wrote a cover letter endorsing the petition.
The Oregon Petition is the third, and by far the largest, of three prominent efforts to argue that the scientific consensus
on global warming
does not exist; the other two are the 1992 Statement by Atmospheric Scientists on Greenhouse Warming, and the Leipzig Declaration
. The petition site currently lists more than 31,000 signatories, though a number of critics of the petition have questioned the scientific credentials and the authenticity of the names of the signatories.
The text of the petition is often misrepresented. For example, until recently the petition's website stated that the petition's signatories "declare that global warming is a lie with no scientific basis whatsoever" and the British newspaper Daily Telegraph reported that the petition "denies that man is responsible for global warming." As seen above, the petition uses the terms catastrophic heating and disruption rather than "global warming".
The original article associated with the petition (see below) defined "global warming" as "severe increases in Earth's atmospheric and surface temperatures, with disastrous environmental consequences". This differs from both scientific usage and dictionary definitions, in which "global warming" is an increase in the global mean atmospheric temperature without implying that the increase is "severe" or will have "disastrous environmental consequences."
, and made reference to his former position as president of the US National Academy of Sciences, accompanied by an attached article supporting the petition. The current version of Seitz's letter describes the article as "a twelve page review of information on the subject of 'global warming'." The article is titled "Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" by Arthur B. Robinson
, Noah E. Robinson, Sallie Baliunas
and Willie Soon
. One of these earlier petitions and presentation was discussed by Lahsen (2005).
The 1997 version of the article states that "over the past two decades, when CO2 levels have been at their highest, global average temperatures have actually cooled slightly" and says that this was based on comparison of satellite data (for 1979–1997) and balloon data from 1979-96. At the time the petition was written, this was unclear. Since then the satellite record has been revised, and shows warming. (See historical temperature record and satellite temperature measurements
.)
The article followed the identical style and format of a contribution to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
, a scientific journal, even including a date of publication ("October 26") and volume number ("Vol. 13: 149-164 1999"), but was not actually a publication of the National Academy. Raymond Pierrehumbert
, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Chicago, said that the article was "designed to be deceptive by giving people the impression that the article...is a reprint and has passed peer review." Pierrehumbert also said the article was full of "half-truths". F. Sherwood Rowland, who was at the time foreign secretary of the National Academy of Sciences, said that the Academy received numerous inquiries from researchers who "are wondering if someone is trying to hoodwink them."
After the petition appeared, the National Academy of Sciences said in a 1998 news release that "The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal." It also said "The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy." The NAS further noted that its own prior published study had shown that "even given the considerable uncertainties in our knowledge of the relevant phenomena, greenhouse warming poses a potential threat sufficient to merit prompt responses. Investment in mitigation measures acts as insurance protection against the great uncertainties and the possibility of dramatic surprises."
In a 2006 article the magazine Vanity Fair
stated: "Today, Seitz admits that 'it was stupid' for the Oregon activists to copy the academy's format. Still, he doesn't understand why the academy felt compelled to disavow the petition, which he continues to cite as proof that it is "not true" there is a scientific consensus on global warming"
As of October 2007, the petition project website includes an article by Arthur Robinson, Noah E. Robinson and Willie Soon, published in 2007 in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.
Noah E. Robinson presented this material at Telecosm 2007 titled "The Global Warming Myth".
s, the Oregon Petition Project claimed to adopt a number of measures, though none of these claims have been independently verified:
The term "scientists" is often used in describing signatories; however, many of the signatories have degrees in engineering or medicine, including veterinary medicine. The distribution of petitions was relatively uncontrolled: those receiving the petition could check a line that said "send more petition cards for me to distribute".
The Petition Project itself used to state:
In May 1998 the Seattle Times wrote:
In 2001, Scientific American
reported:
In a 2005 op-ed
in the Hawaii Reporter, Todd Shelly wrote:
To the issue of duplicate names, the Global Warming Petition Project had responded:
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , aimed at fighting global warming...
and similar efforts to mitigate climate change. It was organized by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
The Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine is a 501 non-profit organization located about seven miles from Cave Junction, Oregon. It is a private research institute that studies biochemistry, diagnostic medicine, nutrition, preventive medicine and the molecular biology of aging, and receives no...
(OISM), a non-profit organisation run by Arthur B. Robinson
Arthur B. Robinson
Arthur B. Robinson is an American scientist and activist. He is the founder, president, and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, which describes itself as a research institute that studies protein chemistry, nutrition, and predictive and preventive medicine...
, between 1999 and 2001 and was circulated again from late 2007 to early 2008. During the former period the United States was negotiating with other countries on implementation of the protocol before the Bush administration withdrew from the process in 2001. Former U.S. National Academy of Sciences
United States National Academy of Sciences
The National Academy of Sciences is a corporation in the United States whose members serve pro bono as "advisers to the nation on science, engineering, and medicine." As a national academy, new members of the organization are elected annually by current members, based on their distinguished and...
President Frederick Seitz
Frederick Seitz
Frederick Seitz was an American physicist and a pioneer of solid state physics. Seitz was president of Rockefeller University, and president of the United States National Academy of Sciences 1962–1969. He was the recipient of the National Medal of Science, NASA's Distinguished Public Service...
wrote a cover letter endorsing the petition.
The Oregon Petition is the third, and by far the largest, of three prominent efforts to argue that the scientific consensus
Scientific opinion on climate change
The predominant scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth is in an ongoing phase of global warming primarily caused by an enhanced greenhouse effect due to the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases...
on global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
does not exist; the other two are the 1992 Statement by Atmospheric Scientists on Greenhouse Warming, and the Leipzig Declaration
Leipzig Declaration
The Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change is a statement made in 1995, seeking to refute the claim there is a scientific consensus on the global warming issue...
. The petition site currently lists more than 31,000 signatories, though a number of critics of the petition have questioned the scientific credentials and the authenticity of the names of the signatories.
Text
The text of the petition (which was on a reply card) reads, in its entirety:The text of the petition is often misrepresented. For example, until recently the petition's website stated that the petition's signatories "declare that global warming is a lie with no scientific basis whatsoever" and the British newspaper Daily Telegraph reported that the petition "denies that man is responsible for global warming." As seen above, the petition uses the terms catastrophic heating and disruption rather than "global warming".
The original article associated with the petition (see below) defined "global warming" as "severe increases in Earth's atmospheric and surface temperatures, with disastrous environmental consequences". This differs from both scientific usage and dictionary definitions, in which "global warming" is an increase in the global mean atmospheric temperature without implying that the increase is "severe" or will have "disastrous environmental consequences."
Covering letter and attached article
The petition had a covering letter from Frederick SeitzFrederick Seitz
Frederick Seitz was an American physicist and a pioneer of solid state physics. Seitz was president of Rockefeller University, and president of the United States National Academy of Sciences 1962–1969. He was the recipient of the National Medal of Science, NASA's Distinguished Public Service...
, and made reference to his former position as president of the US National Academy of Sciences, accompanied by an attached article supporting the petition. The current version of Seitz's letter describes the article as "a twelve page review of information on the subject of 'global warming'." The article is titled "Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" by Arthur B. Robinson
Arthur B. Robinson
Arthur B. Robinson is an American scientist and activist. He is the founder, president, and professor of chemistry at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, which describes itself as a research institute that studies protein chemistry, nutrition, and predictive and preventive medicine...
, Noah E. Robinson, Sallie Baliunas
Sallie Baliunas
Sallie Baliunas is an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in the Solar, Stellar, and Planetary Sciences Division and formerly Deputy Director of the Mount Wilson Observatory. She serves as Senior Scientist at the George C. Marshall Institute in Washington, DC, and...
and Willie Soon
Willie Soon
Willie Wei-Hock Soon is an astrophysicist at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Soon has testified before Congress on the issue of climate change He is known for his views that most global warming is caused by solar variation...
. One of these earlier petitions and presentation was discussed by Lahsen (2005).
The 1997 version of the article states that "over the past two decades, when CO2 levels have been at their highest, global average temperatures have actually cooled slightly" and says that this was based on comparison of satellite data (for 1979–1997) and balloon data from 1979-96. At the time the petition was written, this was unclear. Since then the satellite record has been revised, and shows warming. (See historical temperature record and satellite temperature measurements
Satellite temperature measurements
The temperature of the atmosphere at various altitudes as well as sea and land surface temperatures can be inferred from satellite measurements. Weather satellites do not measure temperature directly but measure radiances in various wavelength bands...
.)
The article followed the identical style and format of a contribution to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, usually referred to as PNAS, is the official journal of the United States National Academy of Sciences...
, a scientific journal, even including a date of publication ("October 26") and volume number ("Vol. 13: 149-164 1999"), but was not actually a publication of the National Academy. Raymond Pierrehumbert
Raymond Pierrehumbert
Raymond T. Pierrehumbert is Louis Block Professor in Geophysical Sciences at the University of Chicago. He was a lead author on the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and a co-author of the National Research Council report on abrupt climate change...
, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Chicago, said that the article was "designed to be deceptive by giving people the impression that the article...is a reprint and has passed peer review." Pierrehumbert also said the article was full of "half-truths". F. Sherwood Rowland, who was at the time foreign secretary of the National Academy of Sciences, said that the Academy received numerous inquiries from researchers who "are wondering if someone is trying to hoodwink them."
After the petition appeared, the National Academy of Sciences said in a 1998 news release that "The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal." It also said "The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy." The NAS further noted that its own prior published study had shown that "even given the considerable uncertainties in our knowledge of the relevant phenomena, greenhouse warming poses a potential threat sufficient to merit prompt responses. Investment in mitigation measures acts as insurance protection against the great uncertainties and the possibility of dramatic surprises."
In a 2006 article the magazine Vanity Fair
Vanity Fair (magazine)
Vanity Fair is a magazine of pop culture, fashion, and current affairs published by Condé Nast. The present Vanity Fair has been published since 1983 and there have been editions for four European countries as well as the U.S. edition. This revived the title which had ceased publication in 1935...
stated: "Today, Seitz admits that 'it was stupid' for the Oregon activists to copy the academy's format. Still, he doesn't understand why the academy felt compelled to disavow the petition, which he continues to cite as proof that it is "not true" there is a scientific consensus on global warming"
As of October 2007, the petition project website includes an article by Arthur Robinson, Noah E. Robinson and Willie Soon, published in 2007 in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.
Noah E. Robinson presented this material at Telecosm 2007 titled "The Global Warming Myth".
Signatories
Because of various criticisms made of the two Leipzig DeclarationLeipzig Declaration
The Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change is a statement made in 1995, seeking to refute the claim there is a scientific consensus on the global warming issue...
s, the Oregon Petition Project claimed to adopt a number of measures, though none of these claims have been independently verified:
- The petitioners could submit responses only by physical mail, not electronic mail, to limit fraud. Older signatures submitted via the web were not removed. The verification of the scientists was listed at 95%, but the means by which this verification was done was not specified.
- Signatories to the petition were requested to list an academic degreeAcademic degreeAn academic degree is a position and title within a college or university that is usually awarded in recognition of the recipient having either satisfactorily completed a prescribed course of study or having conducted a scholarly endeavour deemed worthy of his or her admission to the degree...
. The petition sponsors stated that approximately two thirds held higher degrees. As of 2008, the petition's website states that "The current list of 31,072 petition signers includes 9,021 PhD; 6,961 MS; 2,240 MD and DVM; and 12,850 BS or equivalent academic degrees. Most of the MD and DVM signers also have underlying degrees in basic science." - Petitioners were also requested to list their academic discipline. As of 2007, about 2,400 people in addition to the original 17,100 signatories were "trained in fields other than science or whose field of specialization was not specified on their returned petition." The petition sponsors state the following numbers of individuals from each discipline:
- Atmospheric, environmental, and Earth sciences: 3,697
- Computer and mathematical sciences: 903
- Physics and aerospace sciences: 5,691
- Chemistry: 4,796
- Biology and agriculture: 2,924
- Medicine: 3,069
- Engineering and general science: 9,992
- The Petition Project itself avoided any funding or association with the energy industriesEnergy developmentEnergy development is the effort to provide sufficient primary energy sources and secondary energy forms for supply, cost, impact on air pollution and water pollution, mitigation of climate change with renewable energy....
.
The term "scientists" is often used in describing signatories; however, many of the signatories have degrees in engineering or medicine, including veterinary medicine. The distribution of petitions was relatively uncontrolled: those receiving the petition could check a line that said "send more petition cards for me to distribute".
The Petition Project itself used to state:
Criticism of the Oregon Petition
A number of critics of the petition questioned the scientific credentials and the authenticity of the names of the signatories.In May 1998 the Seattle Times wrote:
In 2001, Scientific American
Scientific American
Scientific American is a popular science magazine. It is notable for its long history of presenting science monthly to an educated but not necessarily scientific public, through its careful attention to the clarity of its text as well as the quality of its specially commissioned color graphics...
reported:
In a 2005 op-ed
Op-ed
An op-ed, abbreviated from opposite the editorial page , is a newspaper article that expresses the opinions of a named writer who is usually unaffiliated with the newspaper's editorial board...
in the Hawaii Reporter, Todd Shelly wrote:
To the issue of duplicate names, the Global Warming Petition Project had responded:
Updated campaign
In October 2007 a number of individuals reported receiving a package of materials closely similar to the original Oregon Petition mailing. As with the earlier version, it contained a six-paragraph covering note from Frederick Seitz along with a reply card and a supporting article. The text of the position, which as before is on the reply card, is identical to the previous petition. Below the text is a signature line, a set of tick boxes for the signatory to state their academic degree (B.S., M.S., Ph.D.) and field, and another tick box stating "Please send more petition cards for me to distribute." This renewed distribution has continued until at least February 2008.See also
- Climate change denialClimate change denialClimate change denial is a term used to describe organized attempts to downplay, deny or dismiss the scientific consensus on the extent of global warming, its significance, and its connection to human behavior, especially for commercial or ideological reasons...
- Global warming controversyGlobal warming controversyGlobal warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, significantly more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature, regarding the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming...
- Public opinion on climate changePublic opinion on climate changePublic opinion on climate change is the aggregate of attitudes or beliefs held by the adult population concerning the science, economics, and politics of global warming. It is affected by media coverage of climate change.-Regional:...
- Scientific opinion on climate changeScientific opinion on climate changeThe predominant scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth is in an ongoing phase of global warming primarily caused by an enhanced greenhouse effect due to the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases...
Further reading
- Environmental Effects of Increased Carbon Dioxide Arthur B. Robinson, Noah E. Robinson, and Willie Soon, OISM
- Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 2007, AB Robinson, NE Robinson, & W. Soon, J. American Physicians & Surgeons
- Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide 1999, W. Soon, SL Beliunas, AB Robinson, ZW Robinson, Climate Research V. 13, 149-164, Oct. 26, 1999, Harvard Unv.
External links
- Global Warming Petition Project at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine
- Global Warming Petition Project
- Collected debunkings of the Oregon Petition