Pattern oriented modeling
Encyclopedia
Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) is an approach to bottom-up complex systems
analysis that was developed for complex ecological and agent-based systems. A goal of POM is to make ecological modeling more rigorous and comprehensive . A traditional ecosystem model attempts to approximate the real system as closely as possible. POM proponents posit that an ecosystem is so information-rich that an ecosystem model will inevitably either leave out relevant information or become over-parameterized and lose predictive power. Through a focus on only the relevant patterns in the real system, POM offers a meaningful alternative to the traditional approach.
A return to the scientific method
, POM requires the researcher to begin with a pattern found in the real system, posit hypotheses to explain the pattern, and then develop predictions that can be tested. A model used to determine the original pattern may not be used to test the researcher’s predictions. Through this focus on the pattern, the model can be constructed to include only information relevant to the question at hand.
POM is also characterized by an effort to identify the appropriate temporal
and spatial scale at which to study a pattern, and to avoid the assumption that a single process might explain a pattern at multiple temporal or spatial scales. It does, however, offer the opportunity to look explicitly at how processes at multiple scales might be driving a particular pattern.
A look at the trade-offs between model complexity and payoff can be considered in the framework of the Medawar zone
. The model is considered too simple, if it addresses a single problem (e.g., the explanation behind a single pattern), whereas it will be considered too complex, if it incorporates all the available biological data. The Medawar zone, where the payoff in what is learned is greatest, is at an intermediate level of model complexity.
Complex systems
Complex systems present problems in mathematical modelling.The equations from which complex system models are developed generally derive from statistical physics, information theory and non-linear dynamics, and represent organized but unpredictable behaviors of systems of nature that are considered...
analysis that was developed for complex ecological and agent-based systems. A goal of POM is to make ecological modeling more rigorous and comprehensive . A traditional ecosystem model attempts to approximate the real system as closely as possible. POM proponents posit that an ecosystem is so information-rich that an ecosystem model will inevitably either leave out relevant information or become over-parameterized and lose predictive power. Through a focus on only the relevant patterns in the real system, POM offers a meaningful alternative to the traditional approach.
A return to the scientific method
Scientific method
Scientific method refers to a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific, a method of inquiry must be based on gathering empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of...
, POM requires the researcher to begin with a pattern found in the real system, posit hypotheses to explain the pattern, and then develop predictions that can be tested. A model used to determine the original pattern may not be used to test the researcher’s predictions. Through this focus on the pattern, the model can be constructed to include only information relevant to the question at hand.
POM is also characterized by an effort to identify the appropriate temporal
Temporal scales
In reptiles, the temporal scales are those scales on the side of the head between the parietal scales and the supralabial scales, and behind the postocular scales.There are two types of temporal scales:...
and spatial scale at which to study a pattern, and to avoid the assumption that a single process might explain a pattern at multiple temporal or spatial scales. It does, however, offer the opportunity to look explicitly at how processes at multiple scales might be driving a particular pattern.
A look at the trade-offs between model complexity and payoff can be considered in the framework of the Medawar zone
Medawar zone
The Medawar Zone is a the area of problems which are most likely to produce fruitful results. Problems that are too simple are unlikely to produce novel or significant results. Problems that are too ambitious may not succeed at all or may be rejected by the research community at large...
. The model is considered too simple, if it addresses a single problem (e.g., the explanation behind a single pattern), whereas it will be considered too complex, if it incorporates all the available biological data. The Medawar zone, where the payoff in what is learned is greatest, is at an intermediate level of model complexity.