Piers Corbyn
Encyclopedia
Piers Richard Corbyn is a meteorologist
, astrophysicist
, consultant, and owner of the business Weather Action which makes weather forecasts up to a year in advance, and which he also bets on.
, Wiltshire
and began recording weather and climate patterns at age 15, constructing his own observation equipment. He obtained a first class honours degree in physics
at Imperial College London
, where he was a contemporary of Brian May
. In 1969 he became the first President of the Imperial College Students' Union
to be directly elected by the student body. Following some years of activism
, he studied astrophysics in 1979 at Queen Mary College, London
, later examining the relationship between the Earth's weather and climate and solar activity. Following some years of weather prediction as an occupation, he formed the business 'Weather Action' in 1995.
He is the brother of Jeremy Corbyn
.
Weather Action was formerly listed on the Alternative Investment Market
(AIM) as 'Weather Action Holdings plc' in 1997, and was transferred back to private ownership in 1999, primarily because of increasing losses sustained and the impact of costs related to public status (around £70,000 annually) compared to annual revenues of £250,000. Corbyn acquired back the weather prediction business; the listed shell was taken over by investors and changed its name to'InternetAction.com' , with the intent of researching potential net-based takeover targets.
Corbyn has a wide range of weather sensitive customers, including gas and electricity companies, farmers and retailers.
Weather Action claims to have independent research, conducted by insurers, showing that for a particular day, up to nine months in advance, Weather Action's forecasts have achieved an accuracy rate of 55 per cent, rising to 80 per cent for 24 hours either side.
claims that such influences cause minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere
. Corbyn has declined to publish the details of his method.
Corbyn is also a global warming skeptic, and a dissenter in reports about the storms in Europe in 2000 and in Martin Durkin
's documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle
. Corbyn has stated that the anthropogenic
contribution to global warming is minimal with any increase in temperature due to increased solar activity. In 2008 Corbyn went even further than being skeptical, and took an absolutist, certain position by stating, ... "CO2 has never driven, does not drive and never will drive weather or climate. Global warming is over and it never was anything to do with CO2. CO2 is still rising but the world is now cooling and will continue to do so."
Researchers also stated of Corbyn's predictions that:
In accordance with this view, critics point to inaccurate predictions, such as a white Easter
in 1989, and "raging weather" in September 1997.
Corbyn's 17 October predictions also included this: "From November 8 to 13 another system will batter the nation with winds of between 90mph to 110mph. While the worst affected areas will be Scotland and Northern Ireland it will still pack a hefty punch elsewhere". This prediction proved true and there were several emergency situations on both sides of the North Sea.
""The period and forecast maps for the very cold ‘dipole’ patterns 15-21st Jan will probably be shifted later to 21st- 23rd Jan. Some exceptionally strong blizzard conditiuons (sic) and very strong cold winds are likely in this period.
An ongoing similar situation with widespread heavy snow, strong winds and blizzards will continue 24th- 27th Jan."
The period 21–23 January continued very mild for the country as a whole, but with a brief colder interlude for Scotland and the far north of England, with some snow in the Highland and Pennine Mountain regions, not out of the ordinary for January. The Met Office run Hadley Observation Centre had the CET
from the 1–22 January running at 6.4 °C, or 2.8 °C above normal for the time of year. This made it highly unlikely that Corbyn's very cold January forecast would come to fruition.
The final CET for January 2008 ended up over 3 °C above the standard reference average making the predictions for a cold Jan very poor. In fact it ended up being one of the warmest Januarys since records began.
and The Guardian
, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them.
and a campaigns organiser, but has since left it. His brother, Jeremy Corbyn
, has been Labour MP for Islington North
since 1983.
area of Westminster
in the mid-1970s. In 1974 he fought for a seat on the council as a "Squatters and Tenants" candidate; in 1978 he and a colleague fought as 'Decent Housing' candidates. In the 1977 GLC election
he was the International Marxist Group
candidate for Lambeth Central
. He and all the squatters in Elgin Avenue were - as a result of their campaign which included the building of barricades against eviction - rehoused to Southwark, South London, by the GLC in 1975. He later moved from that rehousing in Rust Square to the Alvey Estate in Southwark where he became a leader of the Tenants Association.
. He writes about it on his website and appears on talk shows to discuss his views of the weaknesses of the argument for manmade global warming.
(ICU) between 1969 and 1970 Corbyn was successful in establishing a sabbatical union president, enabling the elected student leader to be registered at the college without having to study or pay fees (in fact they received a grant from the college and union).
As well as laying the foundations for the future, Corbyn negotiated a retrospective sabbatical for himself, although he appears to have served as union president after completing his studies.
Corbyn set up a short-lived Imperial College Representative Council, seats on which were distributed between members of the college on the basis of their numbers, a system that almost gave students a majority. The ICAUT, a staff union, refused to cooperate with this student-led initiative. Although this particular council did not survive, increased student representation on college boards and committees became, like the sabbatical president, a lasting success of Corbyn's time as ICU president.
Corbyn's dress has been viewed as being a statement against upper-class formality. Corbyn, together with the rector at the time, Lord Penney, received the Queen, when she opened a new administrative building in 1969, wearing a cravat, long hair and a beard for the occasion. During the visit Corbyn petitioned the Queen in front of 900 people, asking for students to be given greater say in the governance of the college.
's magazine Weather discussing his brine
-filled barometer
; in the Journal of the British Astronomical Association
for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society
) for a study on the size of pebbles along Chesil Beach.
Meteorology
Meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere. Studies in the field stretch back millennia, though significant progress in meteorology did not occur until the 18th century. The 19th century saw breakthroughs occur after observing networks developed across several countries...
, astrophysicist
Astrophysics
Astrophysics is the branch of astronomy that deals with the physics of the universe, including the physical properties of celestial objects, as well as their interactions and behavior...
, consultant, and owner of the business Weather Action which makes weather forecasts up to a year in advance, and which he also bets on.
Personal life
Corbyn was born in ChippenhamChippenham
Chippenham may be:* Chippenham, Wiltshire* Chippenham * Chippenham, Cambridgeshire-See also:* Virginia State Route 150, also known as Chippenham Parkway, USA* Cippenham, Berkshire, UK...
, Wiltshire
Wiltshire
Wiltshire is a ceremonial county in South West England. It is landlocked and borders the counties of Dorset, Somerset, Hampshire, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire and Berkshire. It contains the unitary authority of Swindon and covers...
and began recording weather and climate patterns at age 15, constructing his own observation equipment. He obtained a first class honours degree in physics
Physics
Physics is a natural science that involves the study of matter and its motion through spacetime, along with related concepts such as energy and force. More broadly, it is the general analysis of nature, conducted in order to understand how the universe behaves.Physics is one of the oldest academic...
at Imperial College London
Imperial College London
Imperial College London is a public research university located in London, United Kingdom, specialising in science, engineering, business and medicine...
, where he was a contemporary of Brian May
Brian May
Brian Harold May, CBE is an English musician and astrophysicist most widely known as the guitarist and a songwriter of the rock band Queen...
. In 1969 he became the first President of the Imperial College Students' Union
Imperial College Union
Imperial College Union is the Students' Union of Imperial College London. It is host to many and varied societies, and has student bars situated around Albertopolis...
to be directly elected by the student body. Following some years of activism
Activism
Activism consists of intentional efforts to bring about social, political, economic, or environmental change. Activism can take a wide range of forms from writing letters to newspapers or politicians, political campaigning, economic activism such as boycotts or preferentially patronizing...
, he studied astrophysics in 1979 at Queen Mary College, London
Queen Mary, University of London
Queen Mary, University of London is a public research university located in London, United Kingdom and a constituent college of the federal University of London...
, later examining the relationship between the Earth's weather and climate and solar activity. Following some years of weather prediction as an occupation, he formed the business 'Weather Action' in 1995.
He is the brother of Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Bernard Corbyn is a British Labour Party politician who has been the Member of Parliament for Islington North since 1983.-Early and personal life:...
.
Weather Action
Weather Action is the business through which Corbyn sells his predictions. He has in the past bet on these predictions. His betting attracted much interest in 1990, when his predictions of bad weather were met by a year of the "worst extremes".Weather Action was formerly listed on the Alternative Investment Market
Alternative Investment Market
AIM is a sub-market of the London Stock Exchange, allowing smaller companies to float shares with a more flexible regulatory system than is applicable to the main market....
(AIM) as 'Weather Action Holdings plc' in 1997, and was transferred back to private ownership in 1999, primarily because of increasing losses sustained and the impact of costs related to public status (around £70,000 annually) compared to annual revenues of £250,000. Corbyn acquired back the weather prediction business; the listed shell was taken over by investors and changed its name to
Corbyn has a wide range of weather sensitive customers, including gas and electricity companies, farmers and retailers.
Weather Action claims to have independent research, conducted by insurers, showing that for a particular day, up to nine months in advance, Weather Action's forecasts have achieved an accuracy rate of 55 per cent, rising to 80 per cent for 24 hours either side.
Predictions
Corbyn's predictions are based on what is called "The Solar Weather Technique." The technique "combines statistical analysis of over a century of historical weather patterns with clues derived from solar observations." He considers past weather patterns and solar observations and sun-earth magnetic connectivity. Conventional meteorologyMeteorology
Meteorology is the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere. Studies in the field stretch back millennia, though significant progress in meteorology did not occur until the 18th century. The 19th century saw breakthroughs occur after observing networks developed across several countries...
claims that such influences cause minimal impact on the Earth's atmosphere
Atmosphere
An atmosphere is a layer of gases that may surround a material body of sufficient mass, and that is held in place by the gravity of the body. An atmosphere may be retained for a longer duration, if the gravity is high and the atmosphere's temperature is low...
. Corbyn has declined to publish the details of his method.
Corbyn is also a global warming skeptic, and a dissenter in reports about the storms in Europe in 2000 and in Martin Durkin
Martin Durkin
Martin Durkin may refer to:* Martin Patrick Durkin, American politician* Martin Durkin , British television producer...
's documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle
The Great Global Warming Swindle
The Great Global Warming Swindle is a polemical documentary film that suggests that the scientific opinion on climate change is influenced by funding and political factors, and questions whether scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming exists....
. Corbyn has stated that the anthropogenic
Anthropogenic
Human impact on the environment or anthropogenic impact on the environment includes impacts on biophysical environments, biodiversity and other resources. The term anthropogenic designates an effect or object resulting from human activity. The term was first used in the technical sense by Russian...
contribution to global warming is minimal with any increase in temperature due to increased solar activity. In 2008 Corbyn went even further than being skeptical, and took an absolutist, certain position by stating, ... "CO2 has never driven, does not drive and never will drive weather or climate. Global warming is over and it never was anything to do with CO2. CO2 is still rising but the world is now cooling and will continue to do so."
Evaluation of predictions
The only peer reviewed work conducted involving Corbyn's work was published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (2001). Its investigation was limited to Corbyn's 'likely damaging gale periods' predictions for the island of Britain for October 1995 to September 1997. Corbyn's enlisted work (carried out for a consortium of insurance companies) was only for the most likely periods of the strongest winds and specifically not a full forecast to include lesser winds:- "Forecasts prepared by Weather Action would repay further attention. The results provide little evidence to dismiss the observed success rates as being attributable to mere chance or good fortune. Indeed the balance of evidence indicates that the system performs better than chance although it is recognized that the margin of success differs greatly between the seasons and is lowest in winter when gales are most frequent."
- "This analysis has been wholly empirical in nature, seeking only to establish the success levels of the gale forecasts. Other aspects of the forecasts have not been considered in this evaluation. Inevitably however these results draw into the debate questions surrounding the methodology by which the forecasts are prepared. This is not, however, the arena in which such issues should be taken up."
Researchers also stated of Corbyn's predictions that:
- "It is unusual for most of the detail to be completely correct, but equally it is rare for nearly everything to be wrong ... Some forecasts are clearly very good, and a few are very poor, but the majority fall in the gray area in between, where an optimistic assessor would find merit, but a critical assessor would find fault."
In accordance with this view, critics point to inaccurate predictions, such as a white Easter
Easter
Easter is the central feast in the Christian liturgical year. According to the Canonical gospels, Jesus rose from the dead on the third day after his crucifixion. His resurrection is celebrated on Easter Day or Easter Sunday...
in 1989, and "raging weather" in September 1997.
Reliability of forecasts in 2007
Corbyn predicted, from 11 months ahead, two major storm periods for parts of the British Isles and much of Europe for November 2007. Specifically, on 17 October, Corbyn predicted “ferocious” weather and that hurricane force winds – gusting up to 130 mph as weather fronts gain in intensity – could wreak havoc across the country; and that the most severe weather event would take place during the last week of November, causing chaos. In the event, much of the weather was not exceptional for the time of year, and little or no damage was reported on the UK mainland in November.Corbyn's 17 October predictions also included this: "From November 8 to 13 another system will batter the nation with winds of between 90mph to 110mph. While the worst affected areas will be Scotland and Northern Ireland it will still pack a hefty punch elsewhere". This prediction proved true and there were several emergency situations on both sides of the North Sea.
Forecasts for 2008
At the end of 2007, WeatherAction predicted that temperatures in January could plummet to -17 °C in the Midlands, and that the average temperature for January would be close to freezing. This prediction was dismissed by the Met Office in a Guardian article on 2 January. After the January prediction proved false, Mr. Corbyn blamed the incorrect forecast on an undefined 'procedural error,' but insisted that the second half of the month, specifically the period of 21–27 January, would be very cold, stating on his website:""The period and forecast maps for the very cold ‘dipole’ patterns 15-21st Jan will probably be shifted later to 21st- 23rd Jan. Some exceptionally strong blizzard conditiuons (sic) and very strong cold winds are likely in this period.
An ongoing similar situation with widespread heavy snow, strong winds and blizzards will continue 24th- 27th Jan."
The period 21–23 January continued very mild for the country as a whole, but with a brief colder interlude for Scotland and the far north of England, with some snow in the Highland and Pennine Mountain regions, not out of the ordinary for January. The Met Office run Hadley Observation Centre had the CET
Central England temperature
The Central England Temperature record was originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953 and subsequently extended and updated in 1974, following many decades of painstaking work...
from the 1–22 January running at 6.4 °C, or 2.8 °C above normal for the time of year. This made it highly unlikely that Corbyn's very cold January forecast would come to fruition.
The final CET for January 2008 ended up over 3 °C above the standard reference average making the predictions for a cold Jan very poor. In fact it ended up being one of the warmest Januarys since records began.
Response to media criticism
Following criticism of Weather Action's forecasts in The TimesThe Times
The Times is a British daily national newspaper, first published in London in 1785 under the title The Daily Universal Register . The Times and its sister paper The Sunday Times are published by Times Newspapers Limited, a subsidiary since 1981 of News International...
and The Guardian
The Guardian
The Guardian, formerly known as The Manchester Guardian , is a British national daily newspaper in the Berliner format...
, in particular from journalist Paul Simons, Piers Corbyn banned the use of any extracts of them in any articles unless they were approved by Corbyn. In addition the above newspapers and any publication which carried articles by Paul Simons were also explicitly forbidden from quoting them.
Political activism
Corbyn was a member of the Labour PartyLabour Party (UK)
The Labour Party is a centre-left democratic socialist party in the United Kingdom. It surpassed the Liberal Party in general elections during the early 1920s, forming minority governments under Ramsay MacDonald in 1924 and 1929-1931. The party was in a wartime coalition from 1940 to 1945, after...
and a campaigns organiser, but has since left it. His brother, Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn
Jeremy Bernard Corbyn is a British Labour Party politician who has been the Member of Parliament for Islington North since 1983.-Early and personal life:...
, has been Labour MP for Islington North
Islington North (UK Parliament constituency)
Islington North is a parliamentary constituency represented in the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. It elects one Member of Parliament by the first-past-the-post system of election...
since 1983.
Housing rights
Corbyn was a housing and squatters' rights activist in the North PaddingtonPaddington
Paddington is a district within the City of Westminster, in central London, England. Formerly a metropolitan borough, it was integrated with Westminster and Greater London in 1965...
area of Westminster
City of Westminster
The City of Westminster is a London borough occupying much of the central area of London, England, including most of the West End. It is located to the west of and adjoining the ancient City of London, directly to the east of the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, and its southern boundary...
in the mid-1970s. In 1974 he fought for a seat on the council as a "Squatters and Tenants" candidate; in 1978 he and a colleague fought as 'Decent Housing' candidates. In the 1977 GLC election
Greater London Council election, 1977
Turnout: 2,242,064 people voted-References:*...
he was the International Marxist Group
International Marxist Group
The International Marxist Group was a Trotskyist group in Britain between 1968 and 1982. It was the British Section of the Fourth International. It and its youth organisation had had around 1,000 members and supporters in the late 1970s...
candidate for Lambeth Central
Lambeth Central (UK Parliament constituency)
Lambeth Central was a parliamentary constituency in the London Borough of Lambeth, in South London. It returned one Member of Parliament to the House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, elected by the first-past-the-post voting system....
. He and all the squatters in Elgin Avenue were - as a result of their campaign which included the building of barricades against eviction - rehoused to Southwark, South London, by the GLC in 1975. He later moved from that rehousing in Rust Square to the Alvey Estate in Southwark where he became a leader of the Tenants Association.
Global Warming Debate
Corbyn is well-known for his opposition to the idea of anthropogenic global warmingClimate change denial
Climate change denial is a term used to describe organized attempts to downplay, deny or dismiss the scientific consensus on the extent of global warming, its significance, and its connection to human behavior, especially for commercial or ideological reasons...
. He writes about it on his website and appears on talk shows to discuss his views of the weaknesses of the argument for manmade global warming.
Student representation
As president of Imperial College UnionImperial College Union
Imperial College Union is the Students' Union of Imperial College London. It is host to many and varied societies, and has student bars situated around Albertopolis...
(ICU) between 1969 and 1970 Corbyn was successful in establishing a sabbatical union president, enabling the elected student leader to be registered at the college without having to study or pay fees (in fact they received a grant from the college and union).
As well as laying the foundations for the future, Corbyn negotiated a retrospective sabbatical for himself, although he appears to have served as union president after completing his studies.
Corbyn set up a short-lived Imperial College Representative Council, seats on which were distributed between members of the college on the basis of their numbers, a system that almost gave students a majority. The ICAUT, a staff union, refused to cooperate with this student-led initiative. Although this particular council did not survive, increased student representation on college boards and committees became, like the sabbatical president, a lasting success of Corbyn's time as ICU president.
Corbyn's dress has been viewed as being a statement against upper-class formality. Corbyn, together with the rector at the time, Lord Penney, received the Queen, when she opened a new administrative building in 1969, wearing a cravat, long hair and a beard for the occasion. During the visit Corbyn petitioned the Queen in front of 900 people, asking for students to be given greater say in the governance of the college.
Scientific papers
His first papers were published as an undergraduate in the Royal Meteorological SocietyRoyal Meteorological Society
The Royal Meteorological Society traces its origins back to 3 April 1850 when the British Meteorological Society was formed as a society the objects of which should be the advancement and extension of meteorological science by determining the laws of climate and of meteorological phenomena in general...
's magazine Weather discussing his brine
Brine
Brine is water, saturated or nearly saturated with salt .Brine is used to preserve vegetables, fruit, fish, and meat, in a process known as brining . Brine is also commonly used to age Halloumi and Feta cheeses, or for pickling foodstuffs, as a means of preserving them...
-filled barometer
Barometer
A barometer is a scientific instrument used in meteorology to measure atmospheric pressure. Pressure tendency can forecast short term changes in the weather...
; in the Journal of the British Astronomical Association
British Astronomical Association
The British Astronomical Association is the senior national association of amateur astronomers in the UK.-Function:It encourages observational astronomy by non-professionals in areas which cannot be covered by professional observatories...
for his home-based measurements of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit; and in the Geographical Journal (of the Royal Geographical Society
Royal Geographical Society
The Royal Geographical Society is a British learned society founded in 1830 for the advancement of geographical sciences...
) for a study on the size of pebbles along Chesil Beach.
External links
- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8213058/The-man-who-repeatedly-beats-the-Met-Office-at-its-own-game.html The man who repeatedly beats the Met Office at its own game
- Weather Action