Predictify
Encyclopedia
Predictify.com was a Web 2.0
company based in Redwood City, California
. It was founded by Stanford University
graduates Parker Barrile and Michael Agnich. It went out of business in 2009, according to this article.. A similar "news prediction site" called HubDub
also has closed. Other platforms based on the same principles are still running, notably FUTURITI, opened in 2009, and Knew The News, launched in late 2010.
Users of the site users submitted deterministic, verifiable questions concerning future events. Other users then gave answers and predicted the outcome.
Users who answered questions were rewarded in two ways. First, the accuracy of user responses was tracked and reevaluated each time a question that the user answered closed. Predictify assigned users to one of five "levels" depending on the user's accuracy percentile
. Users could also earn money for correctly answering "Premium Questions". Premium questions were generally submitted by companies. The submitter of a premium question received detailed demographic information and analysis on each answer given. Part of the fee paid by premium question submitters constituted the "pot" from which correct answers were paid.
The site allowed marketing
and market research
in a manner far less obvious than most traditional advertising and survey methods. Users didn't realize that their predictions may have strongly affected the outcome of the question. For example, if a company was considering increasing the cost of a product, they could survey
consumers to determine how much more they were willing to pay. The outcome of the survey would then set the new price of the product. The company could further sort the data based on the demographic information collected on respondents, to ensure that they priced the product correctly for their target market
. The demographic analysis of respondents was very valuable to companies and was the true product Predictify sells.
Companies could also use questions on Predictify to conduct guerilla advertising campaigns. Users would try to answer premium questions correctly, in order to win the cash prize associated with the question. In the course of formulating their prediction they may have researched the subject of the question. Companies could create interest in their products by asking questions about them; individuals answering the question may have visited the company's website to learn more about the product. Dilbert creator, Scott Adams, posted a question seeking sales volume projections of a book he authored. Early customers and partnerships were established by the company's first full-time employee, Ed Heacox.
The Washington Post, New York Times, and San Francisco Chronicle
all have used Predictify to judge reader interest in stories.
According to an announcement made in Predictify's official page, the company ceased operations and shut down the entire Predictify service on September 1st, 2009.
Web 2.0
The term Web 2.0 is associated with web applications that facilitate participatory information sharing, interoperability, user-centered design, and collaboration on the World Wide Web...
company based in Redwood City, California
Redwood City, California
Redwood City is a California charter city located on the San Francisco Peninsula in Northern California, approximately 27 miles south of San Francisco, and 24 miles north of San Jose. Redwood City's history spans from its earliest inhabitation by the Ohlone people, to its tradition as a port for...
. It was founded by Stanford University
Stanford University
The Leland Stanford Junior University, commonly referred to as Stanford University or Stanford, is a private research university on an campus located near Palo Alto, California. It is situated in the northwestern Santa Clara Valley on the San Francisco Peninsula, approximately northwest of San...
graduates Parker Barrile and Michael Agnich. It went out of business in 2009, according to this article.. A similar "news prediction site" called HubDub
Hubdub
Hubdub was a web-based prediction market in which players used virtual money to trade predictions on future events. Over time users built up a portfolio of live predictions across their chosen categories of interest such as politics, sport, entertainment, technology or other categories...
also has closed. Other platforms based on the same principles are still running, notably FUTURITI, opened in 2009, and Knew The News, launched in late 2010.
Users of the site users submitted deterministic, verifiable questions concerning future events. Other users then gave answers and predicted the outcome.
Users who answered questions were rewarded in two ways. First, the accuracy of user responses was tracked and reevaluated each time a question that the user answered closed. Predictify assigned users to one of five "levels" depending on the user's accuracy percentile
Percentile
In statistics, a percentile is the value of a variable below which a certain percent of observations fall. For example, the 20th percentile is the value below which 20 percent of the observations may be found...
. Users could also earn money for correctly answering "Premium Questions". Premium questions were generally submitted by companies. The submitter of a premium question received detailed demographic information and analysis on each answer given. Part of the fee paid by premium question submitters constituted the "pot" from which correct answers were paid.
The site allowed marketing
Marketing
Marketing is the process used to determine what products or services may be of interest to customers, and the strategy to use in sales, communications and business development. It generates the strategy that underlies sales techniques, business communication, and business developments...
and market research
Market research
Market research is any organized effort to gather information about markets or customers. It is a very important component of business strategy...
in a manner far less obvious than most traditional advertising and survey methods. Users didn't realize that their predictions may have strongly affected the outcome of the question. For example, if a company was considering increasing the cost of a product, they could survey
Statistical survey
Survey methodology is the field that studies surveys, that is, the sample of individuals from a population with a view towards making statistical inferences about the population using the sample. Polls about public opinion, such as political beliefs, are reported in the news media in democracies....
consumers to determine how much more they were willing to pay. The outcome of the survey would then set the new price of the product. The company could further sort the data based on the demographic information collected on respondents, to ensure that they priced the product correctly for their target market
Target market
A target market is a group of customers that the business has decided to aim its marketing efforts and ultimately its merchandise. A well-defined target market is the first element to a marketing strategy...
. The demographic analysis of respondents was very valuable to companies and was the true product Predictify sells.
Companies could also use questions on Predictify to conduct guerilla advertising campaigns. Users would try to answer premium questions correctly, in order to win the cash prize associated with the question. In the course of formulating their prediction they may have researched the subject of the question. Companies could create interest in their products by asking questions about them; individuals answering the question may have visited the company's website to learn more about the product. Dilbert creator, Scott Adams, posted a question seeking sales volume projections of a book he authored. Early customers and partnerships were established by the company's first full-time employee, Ed Heacox.
The Washington Post, New York Times, and San Francisco Chronicle
San Francisco Chronicle
thumb|right|upright|The Chronicle Building following the [[1906 San Francisco earthquake|1906 earthquake]] and fireThe San Francisco Chronicle is a newspaper serving primarily the San Francisco Bay Area of the U.S. state of California, but distributed throughout Northern and Central California,...
all have used Predictify to judge reader interest in stories.
According to an announcement made in Predictify's official page, the company ceased operations and shut down the entire Predictify service on September 1st, 2009.