Quality start
Encyclopedia
In baseball
, a quality start is a statistic
for a starting pitcher
defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings
and permits no more than three earned run
s.
The quality start was developed by sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 while writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer. The statistic is preferred by sabermetricians to that of winning percentage
(the number of win
s garnered by a pitcher as a fraction of his total decisions) insofar as it acts independently of some factors beyond a pitcher's control such as fielding error
s, blown saves
, and poor run support
. ESPN.com
terms a loss suffered by a pitcher in a quality start as a tough loss and a win earned by a pitcher in a non-quality start a cheap win.
, who had 33 of them in 35 games in 1985. Bob Gibson
was 32-for-34 in 1968.
Since 1950, and through June 2011, the overall leaders by percentage are:
, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA
, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James
addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.
That the category is more reliable in the aggregate can be seen with countervailing individual examples, such as the ones listed by Sports Illustrated
writer Joe Posnanski
in a 2011 piece on the subject:
in Denver was an even more extreme hitter's park before its occupant, the Colorado Rockies
, installed a humidor to store game balls in what proved a successful attempt to counteract the effects of Denver's dry, high-altitude climate on baseballs. In contrast, a stadium such as the Oakland Coliseum has unusually long distances to the outfield fences, copious foul ground for fielders and catchers to catch foul fly balls, thick grass that slowed ground balls, and generally cool temperatures that create air resistance to any fly ball. Thus pitchers of similar quality for the Oakland A's would tend to have lower-scoring games and more quality starts than those of the Atlanta Braves or the pre-humidor Rockies.
Baseball
Baseball is a bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players each. The aim is to score runs by hitting a thrown ball with a bat and touching a series of four bases arranged at the corners of a ninety-foot diamond...
, a quality start is a statistic
Baseball statistics
Statistics play an important role in summarizing baseball performance and evaluating players in the sport.Since the flow of a baseball game has natural breaks to it, and normally players act individually rather than performing in clusters, the sport lends itself to easy record-keeping and statistics...
for a starting pitcher
Starting pitcher
In baseball or softball, a starting pitcher is the pitcher who delivers the first pitch to the first batter of a game. A pitcher who enters the game after the first pitch of the game is a relief pitcher....
defined as a game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings
Innings
An inning, or innings, is a fixed-length segment of a game in any of a variety of sports – most notably cricket and baseball during which one team attempts to score while the other team attempts to prevent the first from scoring. In cricket, the term innings is both singular and plural and is...
and permits no more than three earned run
Earned run
In baseball, an earned run is any run for which the pitcher is held accountable . Any runner who tags his base and reaches home plate is scored against the pitcher as an earned run...
s.
The quality start was developed by sportswriter John Lowe in 1985 while writing for the Philadelphia Inquirer. The statistic is preferred by sabermetricians to that of winning percentage
Winning percentage
In sports, a winning percentage is the fraction of games or matches a team or individual has won. It is defined as wins divided by wins plus losses . Ties count as a ½ loss and a ½ win...
(the number of win
Win (baseball)
In professional baseball, there are two types of decisions: a win and a loss . In each game, one pitcher on the winning team is awarded a win and one pitcher on the losing team is given a loss in their respective statistics. These pitchers are collectively known as the pitchers of record. Only...
s garnered by a pitcher as a fraction of his total decisions) insofar as it acts independently of some factors beyond a pitcher's control such as fielding error
Error (baseball)
In baseball statistics, an error is the act, in the judgment of the official scorer, of a fielder misplaying a ball in a manner that allows a batter or baserunner to reach one or more additional bases, when such an advance would have been prevented given ordinary effort by the fielder.The term ...
s, blown saves
Save (sport)
In baseball, a save is credited to a pitcher who finishes a game for the winning team under certain prescribed circumstances. The number of saves, or percentage of save opportunities successfully converted, is an oft-cited statistic of relief pitchers...
, and poor run support
Run (baseball)
In baseball, a run is scored when a player advances around first, second and third base and returns safely to home plate, touching the bases in that order, before three outs are recorded and all obligations to reach base safely on batted balls are met or assured...
. ESPN.com
ESPN.com
ESPN.com is the official website of ESPN and a division of ESPN Inc. Since launching in 1995 as ESPNet.SportsZone.com, the website has developed numerous sections including: Page 2, SportsNation, ESPN 3.com, ESPN Motion, My ESPN, ESPN Sports Travel, ESPN Video Games, ESPN Insider, ESPN.com's...
terms a loss suffered by a pitcher in a quality start as a tough loss and a win earned by a pitcher in a non-quality start a cheap win.
All-Time
The highest "quality start" percentage for a given season was recorded by Dwight GoodenDwight Gooden
Dwight Eugene Gooden , nicknamed "Doc Gooden" or "Dr. K", is a former Major League Baseball pitcher. He was one of the most dominant and feared pitchers in the National League in the middle and late 1980s.-Career:...
, who had 33 of them in 35 games in 1985. Bob Gibson
Bob Gibson
Robert "Bob" Gibson is a retired American professional baseball player. Nicknamed "Hoot" and "Gibby", he was a right-handed pitcher who played his entire 17-year Major League Baseball career with St. Louis Cardinals...
was 32-for-34 in 1968.
Since 1950, and through June 2011, the overall leaders by percentage are:
- Tim LincecumTim LincecumTimothy Leroy Lincecum is an American professional baseball starting pitcher for the San Francisco Giants of Major League Baseball. He was nicknamed "The Freak" and "Big Time Timmy Jim" and "The Franchise." He throws right-handed and bats left-handed....
(101 of 139, 72.7%) - Tom SeaverTom SeaverGeorge Thomas "Tom" Seaver , nicknamed "Tom Terrific" and "The Franchise", is a former Major League Baseball pitcher. He pitched from 1967-1986 for four different teams in his career, but is noted primarily for his time with the New York Mets...
(454 of 647, 70.2%) - Adam WainwrightAdam WainwrightAdam Parrish Wainwright is a right-handed starting pitcher in Major League Baseball for the St. Louis Cardinals. He was drafted 29th overall by the Atlanta Braves in the 2000 amateur draft. He made his major league debut for the St...
(83 of 119, 69.7%) - Mel StottlemyreMel StottlemyreMelvin Leon Stottlemyre, Sr. is a former Major League Baseball pitcher and pitching coach. He played 11 years in the Major Leagues, all of them with the New York Yankees...
(247 of 356, 69.4%) - Roy OswaltRoy OswaltRoy Edward Oswalt is an American Major League Baseball pitcher and Olympic gold medalist who is currently a free agent. Oswalt, a slender six-foot right-handed starting pitcher, is currently in his eleventh major league season...
(216 of 316, 68.4%) - Josh Johnson (77 of 113, 68.1%)
- Bob Gibson (328 of 482, 68%)
- Roy HalladayRoy HalladayHarry Leroy "Roy" Halladay III , nicknamed "Doc", is a Major League Baseball starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies...
(226 of 338, 66.9%) - Felix HernandezFélix HernándezFélix Abraham Hernández , nicknamed "King Félix", is a Major League Baseball starting pitcher for the Seattle Mariners....
(127 of 190, 66.8%) - Randy JohnsonRandy JohnsonRandall David Johnson , nicknamed "The Big Unit", is a former Major League Baseball left-handed pitcher. During a 22-year career, he pitched for six different teams....
(403 of 603, 66.8%)
High ERA
An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting NewsThe Sporting News
Sporting News is an American-based sports magazine. It was established in 1886, and it became the dominant American publication covering baseball — so much so that it acquired the nickname "The Bible of Baseball"...
, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA
Earned run average
In baseball statistics, earned run average is the mean of earned runs given up by a pitcher per nine innings pitched. It is determined by dividing the number of earned runs allowed by the number of innings pitched and multiplying by nine...
, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James
Bill James
George William “Bill” James is a baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics...
addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.
That the category is more reliable in the aggregate can be seen with countervailing individual examples, such as the ones listed by Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated is an American sports media company owned by media conglomerate Time Warner. Its self titled magazine has over 3.5 million subscribers and is read by 23 million adults each week, including over 18 million men. It was the first magazine with circulation over one million to win the...
writer Joe Posnanski
Joe Posnanski
Joe Posnanski is an American journalist and senior columnist for Sports Illustrated and former columnist for the The Kansas City Star. He writes extensively on his personal site, Joe Blogs and his SI blog Curiously Long Posts.-Journalism:Posnanski began his journalism career as a multi-use...
in a 2011 piece on the subject:
- "In July 2000, Mark Mulder went 6 2/3 innings, gave up 15 hits and nine runs — but only two were earned, so that was a classified as a quality start.
- In June 1997, Randy Johnson struck out 19 in a complete game but allowed four runs. That was not a quality start.
- In July 1982, Mike Scott allowed seven hits and walked five in six innings, didn’t strike out anybody, gave up seven runs, but only three of those were earned. Quality start.
- In April 1974, Gaylord Perry went 15 innings and allowed four runs. Not a quality start."
Complete games
Another criticism against the statistic is that it is not beneficial for pitchers who pitch many innings per start. If a pitcher allows three earned runs in six innings, he gets a quality start with an ERA of 4.50 for that game. But if a pitcher pitches for nine innings and allows four earned runs, he would have a 4.00 ERA, but would not get a quality start.Park effects
Like almost every baseball statistic, quality starts are affected by the home park of the player. At the extreme there are "hitters' parks" with some combination of good visibility, short dimensions, little foul territory, hard turf that aids ground balls in getting past infielders, and warm temperatures at high altitudes that inflate batting averages, increase walks, and make home runs easier to hit. Atlanta's Fulton County Stadium was one such place. Coors FieldCoors Field
Coors Field, located in Denver, Colorado, is the home field of Major League Baseball's Colorado Rockies. It is named for the Coors Brewing Company of Golden, Colorado, which purchased the naming rights to the park prior to its completion in 1995...
in Denver was an even more extreme hitter's park before its occupant, the Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies are a Major League Baseball team based in Denver, Colorado. Established in 1991, they started play in 1993 and are in the West Division of the National League. The team is named after the Rocky Mountains...
, installed a humidor to store game balls in what proved a successful attempt to counteract the effects of Denver's dry, high-altitude climate on baseballs. In contrast, a stadium such as the Oakland Coliseum has unusually long distances to the outfield fences, copious foul ground for fielders and catchers to catch foul fly balls, thick grass that slowed ground balls, and generally cool temperatures that create air resistance to any fly ball. Thus pitchers of similar quality for the Oakland A's would tend to have lower-scoring games and more quality starts than those of the Atlanta Braves or the pre-humidor Rockies.