Raffaele Bendandi
Encyclopedia
Raffaele Bendandi was an Italian
pseudoscientist known for his predictions of earthquake
s. Bendandi was self-taught and never published a verifiable scientific exposition of his theory.
became interested in planetary motion in the solar system
. He worked for a watchmaker
and an engraver, and also attended a technical drawing course, enabling him to make precision instruments and drawings to explore and demonstrate his theories. After the 1908 Messina earthquake
, he began studying the tides, and also devised his own form of seismograph. In October 1914 he predicted in his unpublished notes that an earthquake would take place on 13 January 1915 and, after the Avezzano earthquake
did occur on that day, killing 30,000 people, he devoted much of his time to studies of past earthquakes and planetary alignment
s, setting up his own observatory with seismographs.
After serving in the First World War, he joined the Italian Seismology Society in 1920. Over time, he developed his own theories, which he called "seismogenics", about the nature of earthquakes. He believed, unsupported by conventional scientific evidence, that they are caused by planetary alignment in the solar system – that the moon, sun, and other planets have gravitational influence on the movements of the earth's crust. He gained fame in Italy after he registered a statement with a notary
predicting that an earthquake would strike on January 2, 1924. His prediction was off by two days – an earthquake occurred on January 4, 1924 in the region of Marche
. Based on this prediction, the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera
ran a front-page story about Bendandi. In the 1920s, he published many predictions of earthquakes in various Italian and foreign newspapers, including Il Progresso Italo-Americano
. Benito Mussolini
was impressed by him, making him a Knight of the Order of the Crown of Italy
, but in 1928 banned him from making any further public predictions so as not to damage tourism.
In 1931 he published Un Principio Fondamentale dell'universo, claiming a relationship between earthquakes and sunspot
activity. However, he never published any account of his forecasting methods, which remain largely unknown although he clearly related them to the tidal cycle. He resumed publishing forecasts in 1950, and continued making predictions until 1977, but with a break in the late 1960s. One comparison between his forecasts and actual events states that "the accuracy of Bendandi's time forecasts proved to be remarkable". In later years, his forecasts became less specific in terms of date and location, but he reportedly forecast the quake of May 6, 1976
in Friuli
which killed almost 1,000. He also claimed to have discovered a new planet between Mercury
and the sun, which he named Faenza after his home town.
After his death, some of his papers were destroyed by fire. Remaining fragments made reference to the years 2011 and 2012, but without giving any dates or locations for any predicted earthquakes. His home in Faenza was later turned into a museum, Casa Museo Raffaele Bendandi.
, were distributed in the comune
of Ciampino
, stating that Bendandi had forecast an earthquake on 11 May 2011, and that residents should leave their homes before that day. Rumours continued to spread in particular through social networking sites, and specified that the earthquake would affect Rome
. In May 2011 it was reported that people were fleeing Rome in readiness for an earthquake predicted to occur on May 11. The existence of a prediction for that date was denied by the custodians of Bendandi's papers, while the Italian National Institute of Geology and Vulcanology (INGV) held an open day at its Rome office on the day. There was no earthquake in Rome that day. Nevertheless, some media reports drew attention to the fact that, on the same day, an earthquake hit the town of Lorca
in Spain
some 1300 kilometres (807.8 mi) away. The INGV stated: "There is absolutely no link between Spain and Italy, geologically, or with the prediction of an earthquake in Rome."
Italy
Italy , officially the Italian Republic languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Italy's official name is as follows:;;;;;;;;), is a unitary parliamentary republic in South-Central Europe. To the north it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and...
pseudoscientist known for his predictions of earthquake
Earthquake
An earthquake is the result of a sudden release of energy in the Earth's crust that creates seismic waves. The seismicity, seismism or seismic activity of an area refers to the frequency, type and size of earthquakes experienced over a period of time...
s. Bendandi was self-taught and never published a verifiable scientific exposition of his theory.
Life and legacy
Bendandi was born in Faenza to a family of modest wealth. He only attended school for five years, but at the time of the solar eclipse of August 30, 1905Solar eclipse of August 30, 1905
A total solar eclipse occurred on August 30, 1905. -References:* * * *...
became interested in planetary motion in the solar system
Solar System
The Solar System consists of the Sun and the astronomical objects gravitationally bound in orbit around it, all of which formed from the collapse of a giant molecular cloud approximately 4.6 billion years ago. The vast majority of the system's mass is in the Sun...
. He worked for a watchmaker
Watchmaker
A watchmaker is an artisan who makes and repairs watches. Since virtually all watches are now factory made, most modern watchmakers solely repair watches. However, originally they were master craftsmen who built watches, including all their parts, by hand...
and an engraver, and also attended a technical drawing course, enabling him to make precision instruments and drawings to explore and demonstrate his theories. After the 1908 Messina earthquake
1908 Messina earthquake
The 1908 Messina earthquake and tsunami took some 100,000–200,000 lives on December 28, 1908 in Sicily and Calabria, southern Italy.-Quake:On December 28, 1908 from about 05:20 to 05:21 an earthquake of 7.2 on the moment magnitude scale occurred centered on the of city Messina, in Sicily. Reggio...
, he began studying the tides, and also devised his own form of seismograph. In October 1914 he predicted in his unpublished notes that an earthquake would take place on 13 January 1915 and, after the Avezzano earthquake
1915 Avezzano earthquake
The 1915 Avezzano earthquake or 1915 L'Aquila earthquake occurred on January 13 in southern Italy, near the city of L'Aquila. The epicenter was located in the town of Avezzano in southern Italy...
did occur on that day, killing 30,000 people, he devoted much of his time to studies of past earthquakes and planetary alignment
Syzygy (astronomy)
In astronomy, a syzygy is a straight line configuration of three celestial bodies in a gravitational system. The word is usually used in reference to the Sun, the Earth and either the Moon or a planet, where the latter is in conjunction or opposition. Solar and lunar eclipses occur at times of...
s, setting up his own observatory with seismographs.
After serving in the First World War, he joined the Italian Seismology Society in 1920. Over time, he developed his own theories, which he called "seismogenics", about the nature of earthquakes. He believed, unsupported by conventional scientific evidence, that they are caused by planetary alignment in the solar system – that the moon, sun, and other planets have gravitational influence on the movements of the earth's crust. He gained fame in Italy after he registered a statement with a notary
Notary
A notary is a lawyer or person with legal training who is licensed by the state to perform acts in legal affairs, in particular witnessing signatures on documents...
predicting that an earthquake would strike on January 2, 1924. His prediction was off by two days – an earthquake occurred on January 4, 1924 in the region of Marche
Marche
The population density in the region is below the national average. In 2008, it was 161.5 inhabitants per km2, compared to the national figure of 198.8. It is highest in the province of Ancona , and lowest in the province of Macerata...
. Based on this prediction, the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera
Corriere della Sera
The Corriere della Sera is an Italian daily newspaper, published in Milan.It is among the oldest and most reputable Italian newspapers. Its main rivals are Rome's La Repubblica and Turin's La Stampa.- History :...
ran a front-page story about Bendandi. In the 1920s, he published many predictions of earthquakes in various Italian and foreign newspapers, including Il Progresso Italo-Americano
Il Progresso Italo-Americano
Il Progresso Italo-Americano was an Italian-language daily newspaper in the United States, published from 1880 to 1988, when it was shut down due to a union dispute. In 1989, most journalists of Il Progresso reunited to create a new daily, America Oggi...
. Benito Mussolini
Benito Mussolini
Benito Amilcare Andrea Mussolini was an Italian politician who led the National Fascist Party and is credited with being one of the key figures in the creation of Fascism....
was impressed by him, making him a Knight of the Order of the Crown of Italy
Order of the Crown of Italy
The Order of the Crown of Italy was founded as a national order in 1868 by King Vittorio Emanuele II, to commemorate the unification of Italy in 1861...
, but in 1928 banned him from making any further public predictions so as not to damage tourism.
In 1931 he published Un Principio Fondamentale dell'universo, claiming a relationship between earthquakes and sunspot
Sunspot
Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They are caused by intense magnetic activity, which inhibits convection by an effect comparable to the eddy current brake, forming areas of reduced surface temperature....
activity. However, he never published any account of his forecasting methods, which remain largely unknown although he clearly related them to the tidal cycle. He resumed publishing forecasts in 1950, and continued making predictions until 1977, but with a break in the late 1960s. One comparison between his forecasts and actual events states that "the accuracy of Bendandi's time forecasts proved to be remarkable". In later years, his forecasts became less specific in terms of date and location, but he reportedly forecast the quake of May 6, 1976
1976 Friuli earthquake
The 1976 Friuli earthquake took place in the Friuli region in northeast Italy on Thursday, May 6, 1976. Measuring 6.4 on the Richter Scale, the quake, centered on the town of Gemona del Friuli, killed 989 people, 2400 injured and left 157,000 homeless. It is known in Italy as Terremoto del Friuli...
in Friuli
Friuli
Friuli is an area of northeastern Italy with its own particular cultural and historical identity. It comprises the major part of the autonomous region Friuli-Venezia Giulia, i.e. the province of Udine, Pordenone, Gorizia, excluding Trieste...
which killed almost 1,000. He also claimed to have discovered a new planet between Mercury
Mercury (planet)
Mercury is the innermost and smallest planet in the Solar System, orbiting the Sun once every 87.969 Earth days. The orbit of Mercury has the highest eccentricity of all the Solar System planets, and it has the smallest axial tilt. It completes three rotations about its axis for every two orbits...
and the sun, which he named Faenza after his home town.
After his death, some of his papers were destroyed by fire. Remaining fragments made reference to the years 2011 and 2012, but without giving any dates or locations for any predicted earthquakes. His home in Faenza was later turned into a museum, Casa Museo Raffaele Bendandi.
Events of 2011
In January 2011, leaflets falsely claiming to come from the Protezione CivileProtezione Civile
The "Protezione Civile" department is the national body in Italy that deals with the prediction, prevention and management of exceptional events....
, were distributed in the comune
Comune
In Italy, the comune is the basic administrative division, and may be properly approximated in casual speech by the English word township or municipality.-Importance and function:...
of Ciampino
Ciampino
Ciampino is a town and comune in the province of Rome, Lazio, Italy. It was a frazione of Marino until 1974, when it became a comune; it obtained the city status in 2004 by presidential decree.-Overview:It is best known for the local "Giovan Battista Pastine" International Airport, best known as...
, stating that Bendandi had forecast an earthquake on 11 May 2011, and that residents should leave their homes before that day. Rumours continued to spread in particular through social networking sites, and specified that the earthquake would affect Rome
Rome
Rome is the capital of Italy and the country's largest and most populated city and comune, with over 2.7 million residents in . The city is located in the central-western portion of the Italian Peninsula, on the Tiber River within the Lazio region of Italy.Rome's history spans two and a half...
. In May 2011 it was reported that people were fleeing Rome in readiness for an earthquake predicted to occur on May 11. The existence of a prediction for that date was denied by the custodians of Bendandi's papers, while the Italian National Institute of Geology and Vulcanology (INGV) held an open day at its Rome office on the day. There was no earthquake in Rome that day. Nevertheless, some media reports drew attention to the fact that, on the same day, an earthquake hit the town of Lorca
2011 Lorca earthquake
The 2011 Lorca earthquake was a moderate magnitude 5.1 Mw earthquake that caused significant localized damage in the Region of Murcia, Spain. Centred at a very shallow depth of 1 km near the town of Lorca, it occurred at 18:47 CEST on 11 May 2011, causing panic among locals and displacing...
in Spain
Spain
Spain , officially the Kingdom of Spain languages]] under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. In each of these, Spain's official name is as follows:;;;;;;), is a country and member state of the European Union located in southwestern Europe on the Iberian Peninsula...
some 1300 kilometres (807.8 mi) away. The INGV stated: "There is absolutely no link between Spain and Italy, geologically, or with the prediction of an earthquake in Rome."