Selectorate theory
Encyclopedia
The selectorate theory is detailed in The Logic of Political Survival, authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
of New York University
(NYU), Alastair Smith of NYU, Randolph M. Siverson of UC Davis, James D. Morrow
of the University of Michigan
.
The theory operates on two fundamental groups, the Winning Coalition and the Selectorate, both drawn from the overall populace of a state. The Winning Coalition is a subset of the Selectorate, and the Selectorate is a subset of the overall population. The Selectorate is simply those within the state that have a say in policy outcome, in the United States
, for example, it would be all citizens over the age of 18 eligible to vote. The Winning Coalition is a portion of the Selectorate sufficient to choose and sustain a leader in office.
is one that everyone enjoys non-exclusively such as national defense. The public good in this example would be the security provided to citizens of a state. A private good
is a good that is enjoyed exclusively by a select few, usually within the Winning Coalition, and cannot be shared. An example of such a good would be anything exclusionary, such as food surpluses.
It can be said, then, that everyone in the Selectorate, including the Winning Coalition, reap the benefits of public goods while only those within the Winning Coalition enjoy private goods.
. This is because those who are in a winning coalition can easily be replaced by other members of the selectorate who are not in the Winning Coalition. Thus, the costs of defection for those members of the Winning Coalition can be potentially large, namely the loss of all private goods. Similarly, the chances of a challenger in replacing the leader are similarly smallest in such an autocratic system since those in the winning coalition would be hard pressed to defect
. Private goods are highest in such a system vis-à-vis public goods.
A monarchy
, where the Selectorate is small and the Winning Coalition is even smaller, provides the challenger with a greater opportunity to overthrow the current leader. This is because the proportion of Selectorate members who are also in the Winning Coalition is relatively large. That is to say if a new leader comes to power, chances are a given member of the Winning Coalition will remain within the coalition. The incentive for defection in order to attain a greater amount of goods offered by a challenger is not, in this case, outweighed by the risk of not being included in the new Winning Coalition. Here, the proportion of private goods in relation to public goods is seen declining.
A scenario in which both the Winning Coalition is large and the Selectorate is even larger provides the least amount of stability to a leader’s occupancy of power, such a system is a Democracy
. Here, the proportion of public goods outweigh private goods simply because of the sheer size of the Winning Coalition; it would be far too costly to provide private goods to every individual member of the Winning Coalition when the benefits of public goods would be enjoyed by all. Because of this fact — that the leader cannot convince Winning Coalition members to remain loyal through private good incentives, which are in turn cost-restrictive, the challenger poses the greatest threat to the incumbent. Furthermore, this degree of loyalty to the incumbent leader, whatever the government structure may be, is called the Loyalty Norm.
A scenario where the Winning Coalition is large and the Selectorate is small is logically impossible since the Winning Coalition is a subset of the Selectorate.
Selectorate theory assumes everyone has equal political weight, that people want to stay in power but have no other ideological beliefs. Furthermore, it pushes one all-powerful leader, whereas in democratic systems there are usually multiple branches of government that share power, and that people think logically.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. He earned his BA degree from Queens College, New York in 1967 and then his MA and Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. He specializes in...
of New York University
New York University
New York University is a private, nonsectarian research university based in New York City. NYU's main campus is situated in the Greenwich Village section of Manhattan...
(NYU), Alastair Smith of NYU, Randolph M. Siverson of UC Davis, James D. Morrow
James D. Morrow
James D. Morrow is a professor of political science at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, best known for his pioneering work in noncooperative game theory and Selectorate theory.- Biography :...
of the University of Michigan
University of Michigan
The University of Michigan is a public research university located in Ann Arbor, Michigan in the United States. It is the state's oldest university and the flagship campus of the University of Michigan...
.
The theory operates on two fundamental groups, the Winning Coalition and the Selectorate, both drawn from the overall populace of a state. The Winning Coalition is a subset of the Selectorate, and the Selectorate is a subset of the overall population. The Selectorate is simply those within the state that have a say in policy outcome, in the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
, for example, it would be all citizens over the age of 18 eligible to vote. The Winning Coalition is a portion of the Selectorate sufficient to choose and sustain a leader in office.
Distribution of goods
A public goodPublic good
In economics, a public good is a good that is non-rival and non-excludable. Non-rivalry means that consumption of the good by one individual does not reduce availability of the good for consumption by others; and non-excludability means that no one can be effectively excluded from using the good...
is one that everyone enjoys non-exclusively such as national defense. The public good in this example would be the security provided to citizens of a state. A private good
Private good
A private good is defined in economics as "an item that yields positive benefits to people” that is excludable, i.e. its owners can exercise private property rights, preventing those who have not paid for it from using the good or consuming its benefits; and rivalrous, i.e. consumption by one...
is a good that is enjoyed exclusively by a select few, usually within the Winning Coalition, and cannot be shared. An example of such a good would be anything exclusionary, such as food surpluses.
It can be said, then, that everyone in the Selectorate, including the Winning Coalition, reap the benefits of public goods while only those within the Winning Coalition enjoy private goods.
Government types, leaders, and challenger threats
According to the selectorate theory, a leader has the greatest chance of political survival when the Selectorate is large and the Winning Coalition is small, an autocracyAutocracy
An autocracy is a form of government in which one person is the supreme power within the state. It is derived from the Greek : and , and may be translated as "one who rules by himself". It is distinct from oligarchy and democracy...
. This is because those who are in a winning coalition can easily be replaced by other members of the selectorate who are not in the Winning Coalition. Thus, the costs of defection for those members of the Winning Coalition can be potentially large, namely the loss of all private goods. Similarly, the chances of a challenger in replacing the leader are similarly smallest in such an autocratic system since those in the winning coalition would be hard pressed to defect
Defect
- Geometry and physical sciences :* Defect , a characteristic of a polyhedron* Topological defect* Isoperimetric defect* Crystallographic defect, a structural imperfection in a crystal- Pop music :* The Defects, Northern-Irish punk rock band...
. Private goods are highest in such a system vis-à-vis public goods.
A monarchy
Monarchy
A monarchy is a form of government in which the office of head of state is usually held until death or abdication and is often hereditary and includes a royal house. In some cases, the monarch is elected...
, where the Selectorate is small and the Winning Coalition is even smaller, provides the challenger with a greater opportunity to overthrow the current leader. This is because the proportion of Selectorate members who are also in the Winning Coalition is relatively large. That is to say if a new leader comes to power, chances are a given member of the Winning Coalition will remain within the coalition. The incentive for defection in order to attain a greater amount of goods offered by a challenger is not, in this case, outweighed by the risk of not being included in the new Winning Coalition. Here, the proportion of private goods in relation to public goods is seen declining.
A scenario in which both the Winning Coalition is large and the Selectorate is even larger provides the least amount of stability to a leader’s occupancy of power, such a system is a Democracy
Democracy
Democracy is generally defined as a form of government in which all adult citizens have an equal say in the decisions that affect their lives. Ideally, this includes equal participation in the proposal, development and passage of legislation into law...
. Here, the proportion of public goods outweigh private goods simply because of the sheer size of the Winning Coalition; it would be far too costly to provide private goods to every individual member of the Winning Coalition when the benefits of public goods would be enjoyed by all. Because of this fact — that the leader cannot convince Winning Coalition members to remain loyal through private good incentives, which are in turn cost-restrictive, the challenger poses the greatest threat to the incumbent. Furthermore, this degree of loyalty to the incumbent leader, whatever the government structure may be, is called the Loyalty Norm.
A scenario where the Winning Coalition is large and the Selectorate is small is logically impossible since the Winning Coalition is a subset of the Selectorate.
Problems with Selectorate Theory
Real countries often have multiple types of selectorate. For example, in the United States, all eligible voters have some say in policy outcomes, and might be considered the selectorate. Alternatively, the selectorate may be regarded as the party insiders, media figures, and large campaign contributors who collectively determine which candidates will be presented to the public and what the electorate will learn about each candidate.Selectorate theory assumes everyone has equal political weight, that people want to stay in power but have no other ideological beliefs. Furthermore, it pushes one all-powerful leader, whereas in democratic systems there are usually multiple branches of government that share power, and that people think logically.