Shy Tory Factor
Encyclopedia
Shy Tory Factor is a name given by British
opinion poll
ing companies to a phenomenon observed in the 1990s, where the share of the vote won by the Conservative Party
(known as the 'Tories'
) in elections was substantially higher than the proportion of people in opinion polls who said they would vote for the party.
In the 1992 general election
, the final opinion polls gave the Conservatives between 38% and 39% of the vote, about 1% behind the Labour Party
- suggesting that the election would produce a hung parliament
or a narrow Labour majority and end 13 years of Tory rule. In the final results, the Conservatives had a lead of 7.6% over Labour and won their fourth successive general election, though they now had a 21-seat majority compared to the 102-seat majority they had gained in the election five years previously. As a result of this failure to 'predict' the result, the Market Research Society held an inquiry into the reasons why the polls had been so much at variance with actual public opinion. The report found that 2% of the 8.5% error could be explained by Conservative supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions; it cited as evidence the fact that exit poll
s on election day also underestimated the Conservative lead.
After the 1992 election, most opinion pollsters altered their methodology to try to correct for this observed behaviour of the electorate. The methods varied for different companies. Some, including Populus
, YouGov
and ICM Research, have adopted the tactic of asking their interviewees how they had voted at the previous election, and then assumed that they would vote that way again at a discounted rate. Others weighted their panel so that their past vote was exactly in line with the actual result of the election. For a time, opinion poll results were published both for unadjusted and adjusted methods. Polling companies have found that telephone and personal interviews are more likely to generate a shy response than automated calling or internet polls.
However, with the Labour Party
in power from 1997 to 2010, some have speculated about the emergence of the 'Shy Labour Voter'. In 2008, polling had indicated that this was unlikely to be a major factor: polling in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, 2008
predicted a swing no larger than 10% versus the 17.6% swing actually attained. Similarly, the election for the mayor of London
showed an underestimation in Conservative support by all polling groups except YouGov
. In the 2010 general election there was some evidence of both a Shy Tory Factor and a Shy Labour Factor at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandIn the United Kingdom and Dependencies, other languages have been officially recognised as legitimate autochthonous languages under the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages...
opinion poll
Opinion poll
An opinion poll, sometimes simply referred to as a poll is a survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence...
ing companies to a phenomenon observed in the 1990s, where the share of the vote won by the Conservative Party
Conservative Party (UK)
The Conservative Party, formally the Conservative and Unionist Party, is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom that adheres to the philosophies of conservatism and British unionism. It is the largest political party in the UK, and is currently the largest single party in the House...
(known as the 'Tories'
Tory
Toryism is a traditionalist and conservative political philosophy which grew out of the Cavalier faction in the Wars of the Three Kingdoms. It is a prominent ideology in the politics of the United Kingdom, but also features in parts of The Commonwealth, particularly in Canada...
) in elections was substantially higher than the proportion of people in opinion polls who said they would vote for the party.
In the 1992 general election
United Kingdom general election, 1992
The United Kingdom general election of 1992 was held on 9 April 1992, and was the fourth consecutive victory for the Conservative Party. This election result was one of the biggest surprises in 20th Century politics, as polling leading up to the day of the election showed Labour under leader Neil...
, the final opinion polls gave the Conservatives between 38% and 39% of the vote, about 1% behind the Labour Party
Labour Party (UK)
The Labour Party is a centre-left democratic socialist party in the United Kingdom. It surpassed the Liberal Party in general elections during the early 1920s, forming minority governments under Ramsay MacDonald in 1924 and 1929-1931. The party was in a wartime coalition from 1940 to 1945, after...
- suggesting that the election would produce a hung parliament
Hung parliament
In a two-party parliamentary system of government, a hung parliament occurs when neither major political party has an absolute majority of seats in the parliament . It is also less commonly known as a balanced parliament or a legislature under no overall control...
or a narrow Labour majority and end 13 years of Tory rule. In the final results, the Conservatives had a lead of 7.6% over Labour and won their fourth successive general election, though they now had a 21-seat majority compared to the 102-seat majority they had gained in the election five years previously. As a result of this failure to 'predict' the result, the Market Research Society held an inquiry into the reasons why the polls had been so much at variance with actual public opinion. The report found that 2% of the 8.5% error could be explained by Conservative supporters refusing to disclose their voting intentions; it cited as evidence the fact that exit poll
Exit poll
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks whom the voter plans to vote for or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks whom the voter actually voted for. A similar poll conducted before actual...
s on election day also underestimated the Conservative lead.
After the 1992 election, most opinion pollsters altered their methodology to try to correct for this observed behaviour of the electorate. The methods varied for different companies. Some, including Populus
Populus Ltd
Populus is a market research company in the United Kingdom formed in 2003. Populus co-founded the British Polling Council in 2004 and regularly publishes opinion polls on voting intention and as well as other political and commercial issues. Clients have included national brands such as the AA and...
, YouGov
YouGov
YouGov, formerly known as PollingPoint in the United States, is an international internet-based market research firm launched in the UK in May 2000 by Stephan Shakespeare, now Chief Executive Officer, and Nadhim Zahawi...
and ICM Research, have adopted the tactic of asking their interviewees how they had voted at the previous election, and then assumed that they would vote that way again at a discounted rate. Others weighted their panel so that their past vote was exactly in line with the actual result of the election. For a time, opinion poll results were published both for unadjusted and adjusted methods. Polling companies have found that telephone and personal interviews are more likely to generate a shy response than automated calling or internet polls.
However, with the Labour Party
Labour Party (UK)
The Labour Party is a centre-left democratic socialist party in the United Kingdom. It surpassed the Liberal Party in general elections during the early 1920s, forming minority governments under Ramsay MacDonald in 1924 and 1929-1931. The party was in a wartime coalition from 1940 to 1945, after...
in power from 1997 to 2010, some have speculated about the emergence of the 'Shy Labour Voter'. In 2008, polling had indicated that this was unlikely to be a major factor: polling in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election, 2008
Crewe and Nantwich by-election, 2008
The Crewe and Nantwich by-election, 2008 was a parliamentary by-election held on 22 May 2008, for the British House of Commons constituency of Crewe and Nantwich, in Cheshire, England...
predicted a swing no larger than 10% versus the 17.6% swing actually attained. Similarly, the election for the mayor of London
Mayor of London
The Mayor of London is an elected politician who, along with the London Assembly of 25 members, is accountable for the strategic government of Greater London. Conservative Boris Johnson has held the position since 4 May 2008...
showed an underestimation in Conservative support by all polling groups except YouGov
YouGov
YouGov, formerly known as PollingPoint in the United States, is an international internet-based market research firm launched in the UK in May 2000 by Stephan Shakespeare, now Chief Executive Officer, and Nadhim Zahawi...
. In the 2010 general election there was some evidence of both a Shy Tory Factor and a Shy Labour Factor at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.