Statistical Probabilities (DS9 episode)
Encyclopedia
"Statistical Probabilities" is a season six episode of Star Trek: Deep Space Nine
.
With Federation
/Dominion
peace negotiations in the background, the revelation in "Doctor Bashir, I Presume?" that Bashir
is a genetically augmented human allows him to be open about his wish to help less fortunate augments with their problems. He is introduced to four augments who, due to unintended side effects, are unable to function in society. Parents who allow their children to be genetically manipulated attempt to keep the procedure secret: it's illegal, and augmented human beings are prohibited from joining most professions and may not join Starfleet
. However, the problems developed by these four augments forced their parents to seek medical help for them. The four have been institutionalized for most of their lives, and as such are very close to each other, but mistrust outsiders, even their own doctor, Dr. Loews (Jeanetta Arnette
).
The four augments are:
Bashir realizes that his patients' primary problem is boredom. As Jack has pointed out, they are forbidden from pursuing any profession where they could put their brain power to work. Meanwhile, Damar has become the new leader of the Cardassian Union and offers peace talks with the Federation. Watching his speech, the augments make several incredibly accurate guesses about Damar and how he came to power, including that he murdered the "princess" (Tora Ziyal) of the "deposed king" (Dukat). Bashir convinces Sisko
to allow the augments to review the peace negotiations to see if they can determine the Dominion's agenda.
The project works beyond Bashir and Sisko's wildest dreams. Based on subtle grammatical
clues (the augments learn the Dominion language overnight), intimate knowledge of Dominion tactics (their negotiators offer something valuable to cover the fact they are after something even more valuable), and behavioral idiosyncrasies (they notice Damar avoids certain star systems with his eyes), the Federation learns that the Dominion wants to draw the border to secure a planet that has many of the raw materials needed to make Ketracel White. Knowing this gives the Federation negotiators a huge advantage in the talks.
As such, the Federation agrees to provide the augments with further intelligence information. As a result, the augments develop a statistical historical model to predict the future
. The augments soon come to the conclusion that the Federation is doomed to lose the war and suffer casualties in the hundreds of billions. As a result, they recommend surrender, which will save those lives and still leave the Federation in a position to rise up against the Dominion in the future. Bashir is convinced the augments are right, and pleads the case before Captain Sisko. However, Sisko and Starfleet reject the suggestion out of hand.
Faced with what they feel is the equivalent of a decision to commit suicide, the augments decide to try to leak Starfleet's strategic plans to the Dominion negotiators on board DS9, hoping to shorten the war and minimize the casualties. Bashir rightly sees this as foolhardy, but Jack, Lauren, and Patrick overpower him. Bound hand and foot, and left alone with Sarina, Bashir convinces Sarina that her fellow augment's actions will result in their imprisonment and separation. Bashir plays on the fact that he has determined that Sarina is in love with Jack (something the other augments have failed to realize). Sarina frees Bashir in the nick of time, and alerts Odo, who intercepts the augments on their way to the meeting with the Dominion negotiators.
Later, Bashir realizes that hubris
primarily drove their belief that the Federation would lose. Rather than believe they might be wrong about the course of the war, they decided they couldn't possibly be wrong because of their superior intellect. The key point is that despite all of their intelligence and the presumed infallibility of their statistical historical model, the actions of one person (Sarina) altered their plan, which in turn completely altered history (changing a turkey shoot by the Dominion into a drawn out slog at worst).
Bashir returns to his duties, and the augments return to their institution, promising to continue work on a plan for defeating the Dominion (albeit without classified information). Similar augments would return in a later episode - "Chrysalis".
would use a biological weapon against the Founders (although they likely did not know of the existence of Section 31). They did consider that the Cardassians would turn against the Dominion, but calculated that it wouldn't be nearly as successful as it turned out to be.
Star Trek: Deep Space Nine
Star Trek: Deep Space Nine is a science fiction television series set in the Star Trek universe...
.
With Federation
Federation
A federation , also known as a federal state, is a type of sovereign state characterized by a union of partially self-governing states or regions united by a central government...
/Dominion
Dominion
A dominion, often Dominion, refers to one of a group of autonomous polities that were nominally under British sovereignty, constituting the British Empire and British Commonwealth, beginning in the latter part of the 19th century. They have included Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Newfoundland,...
peace negotiations in the background, the revelation in "Doctor Bashir, I Presume?" that Bashir
Julian Bashir
Lieutenant Julian Subatoi Bashir, M.D., played by Alexander Siddig, is a main character in Star Trek: Deep Space Nine. Bashir is the chief medical officer of space station Deep Space Nine and the USS Defiant.-Overview:...
is a genetically augmented human allows him to be open about his wish to help less fortunate augments with their problems. He is introduced to four augments who, due to unintended side effects, are unable to function in society. Parents who allow their children to be genetically manipulated attempt to keep the procedure secret: it's illegal, and augmented human beings are prohibited from joining most professions and may not join Starfleet
Starfleet
In the fictional universe of Star Trek, Starfleet or the Federation Starfleet is the deep-space exploratory, peacekeeping and military service maintained by the United Federation of Planets . It is the principal means by which the Federation conducts its exploration, defense, diplomacy and research...
. However, the problems developed by these four augments forced their parents to seek medical help for them. The four have been institutionalized for most of their lives, and as such are very close to each other, but mistrust outsiders, even their own doctor, Dr. Loews (Jeanetta Arnette
Jeanetta Arnette
Jeannetta Arnette is an American actress known for her television role as Miss Meara on the situation comedy Head of the Class. She has also appeared in numerous films and guest-starring roles on television...
).
The four augments are:
- Jack (Tim Ransom) - Jack is a male in his thirties, perhaps a little older than Bashir. His mental and physical abilities are significantly superior to the average human. However, his great abilities are matched by extreme anxiety, which often manifests itself as paranoiaParanoiaParanoia [] is a thought process believed to be heavily influenced by anxiety or fear, often to the point of irrationality and delusion. Paranoid thinking typically includes persecutory beliefs, or beliefs of conspiracy concerning a perceived threat towards oneself...
, assertiveness and physical aggression. He generally feels superior to other people, and as a result has little empathyEmpathyEmpathy is the capacity to recognize and, to some extent, share feelings that are being experienced by another sapient or semi-sapient being. Someone may need to have a certain amount of empathy before they are able to feel compassion. The English word was coined in 1909 by E.B...
for the suffering he causes. Because of his proactive nature, he generally feels himself to be the leader of his group of compatriots. - Lauren (Hilary Sheppard) - Lauren is an attractive female, almost 40. She is extremely intellectually developed and quite engaging. However, she is prone to sexual misbehavior, which often manifests itself as her being sure almost all men are madly in love with her.
- Patrick (Michael Keenan) - Patrick is a man in his fifties with obvious mental abilities, although he is just as obviously not athletic. However, despite his age and intellect, he has the emotional responses of a child. When something annoys him (such as a minor noise amplified by his genetically improved hearing) he becomes petulant. He is prone to emotional outbursts. When threatened with punishment, he suffers from extreme anxiety.
- Sarina Douglas (Faith SalieFaith SalieFaith Coley Salie is an American actress, comedian, radio host and television personality. She first became known for her role as Sarina Douglas on Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, and went on to host the Public Radio International program Fair Game with Faith Salie.-Family:Born in Boston,...
) - Sarina is a woman in her late twenties who is incapable of human communication, either speaking or writing, although she can understand both (no mention is made of sign languageSign languageA sign language is a language which, instead of acoustically conveyed sound patterns, uses visually transmitted sign patterns to convey meaning—simultaneously combining hand shapes, orientation and movement of the hands, arms or body, and facial expressions to fluidly express a speaker's...
or of telepathicTelepathyTelepathy , is the induction of mental states from one mind to another. The term was coined in 1882 by the classical scholar Fredric W. H. Myers, a founder of the Society for Psychical Research, and has remained more popular than the more-correct expression thought-transference...
communication, but one presumes she can't use those either). She is both frustrated and resigned to the fact that she cannot communicate her thoughts and insights. Like an autisticAutismAutism is a disorder of neural development characterized by impaired social interaction and communication, and by restricted and repetitive behavior. These signs all begin before a child is three years old. Autism affects information processing in the brain by altering how nerve cells and their...
person, she grew up with difficulty processing sensory input, in her case because her cerebral cortex can't pick up the information fast enough. Her character reappears in the seventh season episode Chrysalis.
Bashir realizes that his patients' primary problem is boredom. As Jack has pointed out, they are forbidden from pursuing any profession where they could put their brain power to work. Meanwhile, Damar has become the new leader of the Cardassian Union and offers peace talks with the Federation. Watching his speech, the augments make several incredibly accurate guesses about Damar and how he came to power, including that he murdered the "princess" (Tora Ziyal) of the "deposed king" (Dukat). Bashir convinces Sisko
Benjamin Sisko
Benjamin Lafayette Sisko, played by Avery Brooks, is the main character of the television series Star Trek: Deep Space Nine.-Early life and career:...
to allow the augments to review the peace negotiations to see if they can determine the Dominion's agenda.
The project works beyond Bashir and Sisko's wildest dreams. Based on subtle grammatical
Grammar
In linguistics, grammar is the set of structural rules that govern the composition of clauses, phrases, and words in any given natural language. The term refers also to the study of such rules, and this field includes morphology, syntax, and phonology, often complemented by phonetics, semantics,...
clues (the augments learn the Dominion language overnight), intimate knowledge of Dominion tactics (their negotiators offer something valuable to cover the fact they are after something even more valuable), and behavioral idiosyncrasies (they notice Damar avoids certain star systems with his eyes), the Federation learns that the Dominion wants to draw the border to secure a planet that has many of the raw materials needed to make Ketracel White. Knowing this gives the Federation negotiators a huge advantage in the talks.
As such, the Federation agrees to provide the augments with further intelligence information. As a result, the augments develop a statistical historical model to predict the future
Psychohistory (fictional)
Psychohistory is a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe which combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make general predictions about the future behavior of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire...
. The augments soon come to the conclusion that the Federation is doomed to lose the war and suffer casualties in the hundreds of billions. As a result, they recommend surrender, which will save those lives and still leave the Federation in a position to rise up against the Dominion in the future. Bashir is convinced the augments are right, and pleads the case before Captain Sisko. However, Sisko and Starfleet reject the suggestion out of hand.
Faced with what they feel is the equivalent of a decision to commit suicide, the augments decide to try to leak Starfleet's strategic plans to the Dominion negotiators on board DS9, hoping to shorten the war and minimize the casualties. Bashir rightly sees this as foolhardy, but Jack, Lauren, and Patrick overpower him. Bound hand and foot, and left alone with Sarina, Bashir convinces Sarina that her fellow augment's actions will result in their imprisonment and separation. Bashir plays on the fact that he has determined that Sarina is in love with Jack (something the other augments have failed to realize). Sarina frees Bashir in the nick of time, and alerts Odo, who intercepts the augments on their way to the meeting with the Dominion negotiators.
Later, Bashir realizes that hubris
Hubris
Hubris , also hybris, means extreme haughtiness, pride or arrogance. Hubris often indicates a loss of contact with reality and an overestimation of one's own competence or capabilities, especially when the person exhibiting it is in a position of power....
primarily drove their belief that the Federation would lose. Rather than believe they might be wrong about the course of the war, they decided they couldn't possibly be wrong because of their superior intellect. The key point is that despite all of their intelligence and the presumed infallibility of their statistical historical model, the actions of one person (Sarina) altered their plan, which in turn completely altered history (changing a turkey shoot by the Dominion into a drawn out slog at worst).
Bashir returns to his duties, and the augments return to their institution, promising to continue work on a plan for defeating the Dominion (albeit without classified information). Similar augments would return in a later episode - "Chrysalis".
Episode within Story Arc
The augments were obviously wrong about the course of the war. Although they correctly predicted the alliance with the Romulans, and despite the fact they knew about the intervention by the Prophets, they failed to predict either the Breen alliance in favour of the Dominion, the fact that the Cardassians would stage an uprising against the Dominion, and that Section 31Section 31
In the Star Trek fictional universe, Section 31 is an autonomous intelligence and defense organization. It is presented as a special security operation, manned by Federation citizens, that is not subject to the normal constraints of Starfleet ethical protocols...
would use a biological weapon against the Founders (although they likely did not know of the existence of Section 31). They did consider that the Cardassians would turn against the Dominion, but calculated that it wouldn't be nearly as successful as it turned out to be.