Strategic Assessments Branch
Encyclopedia
The strategic assessments branch of the Counterterrorist Center
(CTC) of the United States Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA) was established in 2001 to plug a gap in strategic analysis of the terrorism threat, particularly that due to al-Qaeda
.
In late 2000 CIA chief George Tenet
had "recognized the deficiency of strategic analysis against al Qaeda". (No overall assessment of the terrorist threat had been made since the CIA's 1995 National Intelligence Estimate and its 1997 update.) The strategic assessments branch was "created" in July 2001. But it struggled to find personnel. The head of the new section finally took up his post on September 10, 2001.
's truck bombing of the World Trade Center
in 1993, the Estimate warned that "national symbols" such as the White House and Capitol were at risk, as well as "symbols of U.S. capitalism such as Wall Street". The Estimate also warned of the vulnerabilities of the US domestic aviation system. It made no mention of Osama bin Laden
.
The 1997 update reiterated the dangers, and briefly mentioned "bin Ladin and his followers", but made no mention of an organization called al-Qaeda. (This was in spite of the CTC's new Bin Laden Issue Station
having produced evidence over the previous year that bin Laden was not just a significant terrorist financier, but a terrorist organizer too.) The update was the last national intelligence estimate on terrorism completed before the September 11, 2001 attacks
.
George Tenet
recognized the deficiency of strategic analysis against al Qaeda" says the 9/11 Commission Report. "To tackle this problem within the CTC he appointed a senior manager, who briefed him in March 2001 on 'creating a strategic assessment capability.'"
"In [an] early Spring 2001 briefing to the DCI", says the Joint Inquiry Report, "[the] CTC requested hiring a small group of contractors not involved in day-to-day crises to digest vast quantities of information and develop targeting strategies. The briefing emphasized that the unit needed people, not money."
"The CTC established [the] new strategic assessments branch during July 2001." As Tenet later testified, "We created a separate analytic unit in July 2001 to assure that the demands for daily tactical support did not sidetrack our strategic analytic effort. The separate unit allowed us to isolate its analysts from the grind of daily crises to focus on the bigger picture. It also allowed us to better train and develop the analysts."
"The decision to add about ten analysts to this effort was seen as a major bureaucratic victory [says the 9/11 Commission Report], but the CTC labored to find them. The new chief of this branch reported for duty on September 10, 2001."
A subsequent Associated Press report expanded on the statement, clarifying that the exercise occurred at the National Reconnaissance Office
, west of Washington. Officials at the Chantilly, Virginia, based NRO "had scheduled an exercise that morning in which a small corporate jet crashed into one of the four towers at the agency's headquarters building after experiencing a mechanical failure." The exercise was designed "to test employees' responses to a disaster, said spokesman Art Haubold".
The exercise was scheduled to begin at 9 a.m. "The agency is about four miles from the runways of Washington Dulles International Airport", where American Airlines Flight 77 took off, to return and hit the Pentagon. "'It was just an incredible coincidence...', Haubold said."
The simulation was out of the usual line of John Fulton's work. "25 years in the intelligence community has contributed to his recognition as an expert in risk & threat response analysis, scenario gaming, and strategic planning. He is on staff for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), currently [2002] serving as Chief of the Strategic War Gaming Division of the National Reconnaissance Office...."
Counterterrorist Center
The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's Counterterrorism Center was established in 1986. It is not to be confused with the National Counterterrorism Center, a separate entity.-Foundation and early years:...
(CTC) of the United States Central Intelligence Agency
Central Intelligence Agency
The Central Intelligence Agency is a civilian intelligence agency of the United States government. It is an executive agency and reports directly to the Director of National Intelligence, responsible for providing national security intelligence assessment to senior United States policymakers...
(CIA) was established in 2001 to plug a gap in strategic analysis of the terrorism threat, particularly that due to al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda
Al-Qaeda is a global broad-based militant Islamist terrorist organization founded by Osama bin Laden sometime between August 1988 and late 1989. It operates as a network comprising both a multinational, stateless army and a radical Sunni Muslim movement calling for global Jihad...
.
In late 2000 CIA chief George Tenet
George Tenet
George John Tenet was the Director of Central Intelligence for the United States Central Intelligence Agency, and is Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy at Georgetown University....
had "recognized the deficiency of strategic analysis against al Qaeda". (No overall assessment of the terrorist threat had been made since the CIA's 1995 National Intelligence Estimate and its 1997 update.) The strategic assessments branch was "created" in July 2001. But it struggled to find personnel. The head of the new section finally took up his post on September 10, 2001.
1995 National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism and 1997 update
The 1995 National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism, prepared by the CIA for President Clinton's Cabinet, warned of the "new breed" of Sunni Islamist terrorist. Mindful of Ramzi YousefRamzi Yousef
Ramzi Yousef was one of the main perpetrators of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing and a co-conspirator in the Bojinka plot. In 1995, he was arrested at a guest house in Islamabad, by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence and United States Diplomatic Security Service, then extradited to the...
's truck bombing of the World Trade Center
World Trade Center
The original World Trade Center was a complex with seven buildings featuring landmark twin towers in Lower Manhattan, New York City, United States. The complex opened on April 4, 1973, and was destroyed in 2001 during the September 11 attacks. The site is currently being rebuilt with five new...
in 1993, the Estimate warned that "national symbols" such as the White House and Capitol were at risk, as well as "symbols of U.S. capitalism such as Wall Street". The Estimate also warned of the vulnerabilities of the US domestic aviation system. It made no mention of Osama bin Laden
Osama bin Laden
Osama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden was the founder of the militant Islamist organization Al-Qaeda, the jihadist organization responsible for the September 11 attacks on the United States and numerous other mass-casualty attacks against civilian and military targets...
.
The 1997 update reiterated the dangers, and briefly mentioned "bin Ladin and his followers", but made no mention of an organization called al-Qaeda. (This was in spite of the CTC's new Bin Laden Issue Station
Bin Laden Issue Station
The Bin Laden Issue Station was a unit of the Central Intelligence Agency dedicated to tracking Osama bin Laden.Soon after its creation the Station developed a new, deadlier vision of bin Laden's activities. In 1999 the CIA inaugurated a grand "Plan" against al-Qaeda, but struggled to find the...
having produced evidence over the previous year that bin Laden was not just a significant terrorist financier, but a terrorist organizer too.) The update was the last national intelligence estimate on terrorism completed before the September 11, 2001 attacks
September 11, 2001 attacks
The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks (also referred to as September 11, September 11th or 9/119/11 is pronounced "nine eleven". The slash is not part of the pronunciation...
.
Setting up the branch, 2000–2001
"In late 2000 Director of Central IntelligenceDirector of Central Intelligence
The Office of United States Director of Central Intelligence was the head of the United States Central Intelligence Agency, the principal intelligence advisor to the President and the National Security Council, and the coordinator of intelligence activities among and between the various United...
George Tenet
George Tenet
George John Tenet was the Director of Central Intelligence for the United States Central Intelligence Agency, and is Distinguished Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy at Georgetown University....
recognized the deficiency of strategic analysis against al Qaeda" says the 9/11 Commission Report. "To tackle this problem within the CTC he appointed a senior manager, who briefed him in March 2001 on 'creating a strategic assessment capability.'"
"In [an] early Spring 2001 briefing to the DCI", says the Joint Inquiry Report, "[the] CTC requested hiring a small group of contractors not involved in day-to-day crises to digest vast quantities of information and develop targeting strategies. The briefing emphasized that the unit needed people, not money."
"The CTC established [the] new strategic assessments branch during July 2001." As Tenet later testified, "We created a separate analytic unit in July 2001 to assure that the demands for daily tactical support did not sidetrack our strategic analytic effort. The separate unit allowed us to isolate its analysts from the grind of daily crises to focus on the bigger picture. It also allowed us to better train and develop the analysts."
"The decision to add about ten analysts to this effort was seen as a major bureaucratic victory [says the 9/11 Commission Report], but the CTC labored to find them. The new chief of this branch reported for duty on September 10, 2001."
A strategic analyst on 9/11
"On the morning of September 11, 2001, [John] Fulton and his team at the CIA were running a pre-planned simulation to explore the emergency response issues that would be created if a plane were to strike a building." So said an advance-publicity pamphlet for a security conference held in 2002.A subsequent Associated Press report expanded on the statement, clarifying that the exercise occurred at the National Reconnaissance Office
National Reconnaissance Office
The National Reconnaissance Office , located in Chantilly, Virginia, is one of the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies. It designs, builds, and operates the spy satellites of the United States government.-Mission:...
, west of Washington. Officials at the Chantilly, Virginia, based NRO "had scheduled an exercise that morning in which a small corporate jet crashed into one of the four towers at the agency's headquarters building after experiencing a mechanical failure." The exercise was designed "to test employees' responses to a disaster, said spokesman Art Haubold".
The exercise was scheduled to begin at 9 a.m. "The agency is about four miles from the runways of Washington Dulles International Airport", where American Airlines Flight 77 took off, to return and hit the Pentagon. "'It was just an incredible coincidence...', Haubold said."
The simulation was out of the usual line of John Fulton's work. "25 years in the intelligence community has contributed to his recognition as an expert in risk & threat response analysis, scenario gaming, and strategic planning. He is on staff for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), currently [2002] serving as Chief of the Strategic War Gaming Division of the National Reconnaissance Office...."