Strauss-Howe generational theory
Encyclopedia
The Strauss-Howe generational theory, created by historians William Strauss
and Neil Howe
, identifies a recurring generation
al cycle in American history. Strauss and Howe lay the groundwork for the theory in their 1991 book Generations
, which retells the history of America as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584. In their 1997 book The Fourth Turning, the authors expand the theory to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras in American history. The theory was developed to describe the history of the United States, including the 13 colonies and their Anglo antecedents, and this is where the most detailed research has been done. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and identified similar cycles in most of today’s developed countries.
The authors’ interest in generations as a broader topic emerged after they met in Washington, DC, and began discussing the connections between each of their previous work. They wondered why Boomers and G.I.s had developed such different ways of looking at the world, and what it was about these generations’ growing up experiences that prompted their different outlooks. Strauss and Howe also wondered whether any previous generations had acted along similar lines, and their research showed that there were indeed historical analogues to the current generations. The two ultimately identified a recurring pattern in Anglo-American history of four generational types, each with a distinct collective persona, and a corresponding cycle of four different types of era, each with a distinct mood. The groundwork for this theory was laid out in Generations in 1991. Strauss and Howe expanded on the theory and updated the terminology in The Fourth Turning in 1997.
Generations helped popularize the idea that people in a particular age group tend to share a distinct set of attitudes and behaviors because they all grow up and come of age during a particular period in history. In the mid-1990s, the authors began receiving inquiries about how their generational insights could help solve strategic problems in organizations. Strauss and Howe were quickly established as pioneers in a growing field, and started speaking frequently about their work at events and conferences.
In 1999, Strauss and Howe founded LifeCourse Associates, a publishing, speaking, and consulting company built on their generational theory. As LifeCourse partners, they have offered keynote speeches, consulting services, and customized communications to corporate, nonprofit, government, and education clients. They have also written six books on how the Millennial Generation is transforming various sectors, including schools, colleges, entertainment, and the workplace.
On 18 December 2007, William Strauss died at the age of 60 from pancreatic cancer
. Howe has continued to expand LifeCourse Associates and to write books and articles on a variety of generational topics. Each year Mr. Howe gives about 60 speeches, often followed by customized workshops, at colleges, elementary schools, and corporations.
(1991), tells the history of America as a succession of generational biographies from 1584 to present, and identifies a recurring generational cycle in American history. The authors posit a pattern of four repeating phases, generational types and a recurring cycle of spiritual awakenings and secular crises, from the founding colonials through the present day. Generations gave rise to a number of terms that are now widely used, including Millennial Generation and G.I. Generation.
Strauss and Howe followed in 1993 with their second book, 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?, which examines the generation born between 1961 and 1981, "Gen-Xers" (alias "13ers", since they are literally the thirteenth generation since America became a nation, although the X in 'Gen X' originally stood for the Roman number ten, meaning the 10th Generation since America became a nation about 200 years prior, a common misconception leading to 'Gen Y', etc., instead of 'Gen XI'). The book shows how 13ers' location in history—they were children during the Consciousness Revolution—explains their pragmatic attitude and lack of generational cohesion.
In 1997, the authors published The Fourth Turning, which expanded on the ideas presented in Generations. Examining 500 years of Anglo-American history, The Fourth Turning reveals a distinct historical pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting approximately the length of a long human life (about 80–90 years), and each composed of four different types of mood eras, or "turnings". Offering a detailed analysis of the period from the Great Depression through today, the authors describe the collective persona of each living generation. These include the upbeat, team-playing G.I.s, the indecisive Silent, the values-obsessed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the new coming-of-age generation of upbeat, team-playing, Millennials. By situating each living generation in the context of a historical generational cycle and archetype, the authors claim to clarify the personality and role of each—and the inevitability of a coming crisis in America.
In 2000 the two authors published Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation (2000). This work investigated the personality of the generation currently coming of age, whose first cohorts were the high school graduating class of 2000. Strauss and Howe show how today's teens are recasting the image of youth from downbeat and alienated to upbeat and engaged. They also say Millennials are held to higher standards than adults apply to themselves; they are a lot less violent, vulgar, and sexually charged than the teen culture older people are producing for them, and, over the next decade, they will transform what it means to be young. According to the authors, Millennials could emerge as the next great generation.
LifeCourse Associates has since released several application books on Millennials—including Recruiting Millennials Handbook for the United States Army (2001), Millennials go to College (2003) and Millennials and the Pop Culture (2005). Millennials go to College: 2nd Edition came out in 2007, along with Millennials Go to College: Surveys and Analysis, the first significant study of college students and their parents by generation. Millennials and K-12 Schools and Millennials in the Workplace are soon to be released.
Before the duo met in the 1980s, William Strauss began studying generations in the 1970s, when he wrote a book about the Baby Boomers on how the Vietnam War affected them called Chance and Circumstance: The Draft the War and The Vietnam Generation (1978) with Lawrence Baskir, while serving under President Ford, dealing with the draft and amnesty issue which also included the book Reconciliation after Vietnam (1977) that determined the future of U.S. military enlistment after the war. Neil Howe studied America's entitlement
attitude of the 1980s with the Concord Coalition
and wrote On Borrowed Time: How America's entitlement ego puts America's future at risk of Bankruptcy (1988).
, young adulthood
, midlife
, and old age
. Particular generations are identified (from first birthyear to last) by looking for cohort groups of this length that share three criteria. First, members of a generation share what the authors call an age location in history: they encounter key historical events and social trends while occupying the same phase of life. Because members of a generation are shaped in lasting ways by the eras they encounter as children and young adults, they also tend to share certain common beliefs and behaviors. Aware of the experiences and traits that they share with their peers, members of a generation also tend to share a sense of common perceived membership in that generation. For example, in a 2007 Harvard Institute of Politics
survey, Americans born 1982 to 1989 (whom Strauss and Howe define as the first-wave cohorts of the Millennial Generation) identified themselves as belonging to a “unique and distinct” generation, with an outlook different from people in their 30s or older. Surveys show that Boomers also strongly identify with their own age cohort.
Strauss and Howe base their definition of a generation on the work of diverse writers and social thinkers, from ancient writers such as Polybius
and Ibn Khaldun
to modern social theorists like José Ortega y Gasset
, Karl Mannheim
, John Stuart Mill
, Émile Littré
, Auguste Comte
, and François Mentré.
While writing Generations, Strauss and Howe discovered a pattern in the historical generations they examined. Generations that come of age as young adults during a Crisis or an Awakening directly absorb the lessons of that defining era, and carry these lessons forward in their attitudes and behaviors later in life. Strauss and Howe label these dominant generations. Generations that grow up as children during a Crisis or Awakening take a dependent role during that defining era, which shapes their later attitudes and behaviors very differently. Strauss and Howe label these recessive generations.
To date, Strauss and Howe have identified 25 generations in Anglo-American history, each with a corresponding archetype. The authors describe the archetypes as follows:
Prophet generations (dominant) are born after a Crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-Crisis era, come of age as self-absorbed young crusaders of an Awakening, focus on morals and principles in midlife, and emerge as elders guiding another Crisis. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age fervor and their values-oriented elder leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of vision, values, and religion. Their best-known historical leaders include John Winthrop
, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams
, Benjamin Franklin
, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln
, Herbert Hoover
, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists who waged idealistic wars and incited others to sacrifice. Few of them fought themselves in decisive wars, and they are remembered more for their inspiring words than for great actions. (Example among today’s living generations: Boomers.)
, George Washington
, John Adams
, Ulysses Grant, Grover Cleveland
, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower. These were shrewd realists who preferred individualistic, pragmatic solutions to problems. (Example among today’s living generations: Generation X
.)
Hero generations (dominant) are born after an Awakening, during a time of individual pragmatism, self-reliance, and laissez faire. Heroes grow up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, come of age as team-oriented young optimists during a Crisis, emerge as energetic, overly-confident midlifers, and age into politically powerful elders attacked by another Awakening. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their collective military triumphs in young adulthood and their political achievements as elders. Their main societal contributions are in the area of community, affluence, and technology. Their best-known historical leaders include Cotton Mather
, Thomas Jefferson
, James Madison
, John F. Kennedy
and Ronald Reagan
. These have been vigorous and rational institution builders. In midlife, all have been aggressive advocates of economic prosperity and public optimism, and all have maintained a reputation for civic energy and competence in old age. (Examples among today’s living generations: G.I.s and Millennials.)
. Their best-known historical leaders include William Shirley
, Cadwallader Colden
, John Quincy Adams
, Andrew Jackson
, Theodore Roosevelt
and Woodrow Wilson
. These have been complex social technicians and advocates for fairness and inclusion. (Examples among today’s living generations: Silent
and Homelanders
.)
One reason why the cycle of archetypes recurs is that each youth generation tries to correct or compensate for what it perceives as the excesses of the midlife generation in power. For example, Boomers (a Prophet generation, whose strength is individualism, culture and values) raised Millennial children (a Hero generation, whose strength is in collective civic action). Archetypes do not create archetypes like themselves, they create opposing archetypes. As Strauss and Howe explain, “your generation isn’t like the generation that shaped you, but it has much in common with the generation that shaped the generation that shaped you.” This also occurs because the societal role that feels freshest to each generation of youth is the role being vacated by a generation of elders that is passing away. In other words, a youth generation comes of age and defines its collective persona just as an opposing generational archetype is in its midlife peak of power, and the previous generation of their archetype is passing away.
, after the Latin word meaning both “a long human life” and “a natural century.”
Generational change drives the cycle of turnings and determines its periodicity
. As each generation ages into the next life phase (and a new social role) society’s mood and behavior fundamentally changes, giving rise to a new turning. Therefore, a symbiotic
relationship exists between historical events and generational personas. Historical events shape generations in childhood and young adulthood; then, as parents and leaders in midlife and old age, generations in turn shape history.
Each of the four turnings has a distinct mood that recurs every saeculum. Strauss and Howe describe these turnings as the “seasons of history.” At one extreme is the Awakening, which is analogous to summer, and at the other extreme is the Crisis, which is analogous to winter. The turnings in between are transitional seasons, similar to fall and spring. Strauss and Howe have identified 26 turnings over 7 saecula in Anglo-American history, from the year 1435 through today.
At the heart of the Strauss-Howe theory is a basic alteration between two different types of eras, Crises and Awakenings. Both of these are defining eras in which people observe that historic events are radically altering their social environment. Crises are periods marked by major secular upheaval, when society focuses on reorganizing the outer world of institutions and public behavior (the last American Crisis was the period spanning the Great Depression
and World War II
). Awakenings are periods marked by cultural or religious renewal, when society focuses on changing the inner world of values and private behavior (the last American Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution” of the 1960s and 1970s). During Crises, great peril provokes a societal consensus, an ethic of personal sacrifice, and strong institutional order. During Awakenings, an ethic of individualism emerges, and the institutional order is attacked by new social ideals and spiritual agendas. According to the authors, about every eighty to ninety years—the length of a long human life—a national Crisis occurs in American society. Roughly halfway to the next Crisis, a cultural Awakening occurs (historically, these have often been called Great Awakenings).
In describing this cycle of Crises and Awakenings, Strauss and Howe draw from the work of other historians and social scientists who have identified long cycles in American and European history. The Strauss-Howe cycle of Crises corresponds with long cycles of war identified by such scholars as Arnold J. Toynbee
, Quincy Wright
, and L.L. Ferrar Jr., and with geopolitical cycles identified by William R. Thompson and George Modelski
. The Strauss-Howe cycle of Awakenings corresponds with Anthony Wallace’s definitive work on revitalization movements, which scholars such as William Mcloughlin and Robert Fogel
have suggested are cyclical. Strauss and Howe also examine how recurring Crises and Awakenings correspond with two-stroke cycles in politics (Walter Dean Burnham
, Arthur Schlesinger Sr. and Jr.), foreign affairs (Frank L. Klingberg), and the economy (Nikolai Kondratieff) as well as with long-term oscillations in crime and substance abuse.
on November 22, 1963. The Silent Generation (Artist archetype, born 1925 to 1942) came of age during this era. Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults epitomized the mood of the High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and moved into new suburbs.
and Culture Wars, beginning in the mid 1980s and ending in the late 2000s. The era began during the second term of (Reagan’s “Morning in America
”), which has developed into an edgy popular culture, a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps. Generation X (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981) came of age during this era. Their risk-taking, free agency
, and market orientation epitomized the mood of the Unraveling.
. The G.I. Generation (Hero archetype, born 1901 to 1924) came of age during this era. Their confidence, optimism, and collective outlook epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s youth, the Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982 to 2000), show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.
The basic length of both generations and turnings—about twenty years—derives from longstanding socially and biologically determined phases of life. This is the reason it has remained relatively constant over centuries. Some have argued that rapid increases in technology in recent decades are shortening the length of a generation. According to Strauss and Howe, however, this is not the case. As long as the transition to adulthood occurs around age 20, the transition to midlife around age 40, and the transition to old age around age 60, the basic length of both generations and turnings will remain the same.
However, Strauss and Howe emphasize that the precise boundaries of generations and turnings can be erratic. The generational rhythm is not like certain simple, inorganic
cycles in physics or astronomy, where time and periodicity can be predicted to the second. Instead, it resembles the complex, organic cycles of biology, where basic intervals endure but precise timing is difficult to predict. Strauss and Howe compare the saecular rhythm to the seasons of the year, which inevitably occur in the same order, but with slightly varying timing. Just as winter may come sooner or later, and be more or less severe in any given year, the same is true of a Fourth Turning in any given saeculum.
Like all turnings, Fourth Turnings are pushed by the aging of each generation into a new phase of life. Yet unlike other turnings, the emerging lineup of generational archetypes is likely to push history forward in a sudden, concerted, and decisive direction. According to Howe, this is true today as well. As Boomers replace the Silent as elder leaders, they will reject caution and compromise and act on moral absolutes
. As Gen Xers replace Boomers in midlife, they will apply a new pragmatic survivalism
to management decisions. As Millennials replace Gen Xers in young adulthood, they will revitalize community, social discipline, and public purpose.
According to Strauss and Howe, there are many potential threats that could feed a growing sense of public urgency as the Fourth Turning progresses, including financial collapse, a protracted war on terror
, a crisis of weapons proliferation
, an environmental crisis, an energy shortage
, or new civil wars abroad. The generational cycle cannot explain the role or timing of these individual threats. Nor can it account for the great events of history, like the bombing of Pearl Harbor
, President Kennedy’s assassination
, or 9/11. What the generational cycle can do, however, is explain how society is likely to respond to these events in different eras. It is the response, not the initial event, which defines an era.
With the generations aligned as they are now, the risk of a major continuing Crisis remains high for the next twenty years. Yet Howe emphasizes that the Fourth Turning will also offer crucial opportunities to fix national or even global problems that seem unsolvable today.
called Generations
the most stimulating book on American history he'd ever read. He even sent a copy to each member of Congress.
Some reviewers of the duo's books, such as the New York Times' Michael Lind have criticized their theories for being too vague, and for verging into the realm of pseudoscience
. Lind claims that the theory is essentially "non-falsifiable" and "mystifying," although they do have some insights into modern American history.
Publishers Weekly
called the book "as woolly as a newspaper horoscope
" and many academics have been dismissive. Arthur E. Levine, a former president of the Teachers College of Columbia University
said "Generational images are stereotypes. There are some differences that stand out, but there are more similarities between students of the past and the present. But if you wrote a book saying that, how interesting would that book be?"
William Strauss
William Strauss was an American author, historian, playwright, theater director, and lecturer. As a historian, he is known for his work with Neil Howe on social generations and for their theory of generational cycles in American history...
and Neil Howe
Neil Howe
Neil Howe is an American historian, economist, and demographer. He is best known for his work with William Strauss on social generations and generational cycles in American history. He is currently the president of LifeCourse Associates, a consulting company he founded with Strauss to apply...
, identifies a recurring generation
Generation
Generation , also known as procreation in biological sciences, is the act of producing offspring....
al cycle in American history. Strauss and Howe lay the groundwork for the theory in their 1991 book Generations
Generations (book)
Generations is the first book by William Strauss and Neil Howe that describes a cyclical theory of history based on repeating generational archetypes. It examines Anglo-American history by dividing it into saecula, or seasonal cycles of history...
, which retells the history of America as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584. In their 1997 book The Fourth Turning, the authors expand the theory to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras in American history. The theory was developed to describe the history of the United States, including the 13 colonies and their Anglo antecedents, and this is where the most detailed research has been done. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and identified similar cycles in most of today’s developed countries.
History
Strauss and Howe’s partnership began in the late 1980s, when they began writing the book Generations, which tells the history of America as a succession of generational biographies from 1584 to the present. Each had previously written on generational topics: Strauss on Baby Boomers and the Vietnam War draft, and Howe on the G.I. Generation and federal entitlement programs.The authors’ interest in generations as a broader topic emerged after they met in Washington, DC, and began discussing the connections between each of their previous work. They wondered why Boomers and G.I.s had developed such different ways of looking at the world, and what it was about these generations’ growing up experiences that prompted their different outlooks. Strauss and Howe also wondered whether any previous generations had acted along similar lines, and their research showed that there were indeed historical analogues to the current generations. The two ultimately identified a recurring pattern in Anglo-American history of four generational types, each with a distinct collective persona, and a corresponding cycle of four different types of era, each with a distinct mood. The groundwork for this theory was laid out in Generations in 1991. Strauss and Howe expanded on the theory and updated the terminology in The Fourth Turning in 1997.
Generations helped popularize the idea that people in a particular age group tend to share a distinct set of attitudes and behaviors because they all grow up and come of age during a particular period in history. In the mid-1990s, the authors began receiving inquiries about how their generational insights could help solve strategic problems in organizations. Strauss and Howe were quickly established as pioneers in a growing field, and started speaking frequently about their work at events and conferences.
In 1999, Strauss and Howe founded LifeCourse Associates, a publishing, speaking, and consulting company built on their generational theory. As LifeCourse partners, they have offered keynote speeches, consulting services, and customized communications to corporate, nonprofit, government, and education clients. They have also written six books on how the Millennial Generation is transforming various sectors, including schools, colleges, entertainment, and the workplace.
On 18 December 2007, William Strauss died at the age of 60 from pancreatic cancer
Pancreatic cancer
Pancreatic cancer refers to a malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. The most common type of pancreatic cancer, accounting for 95% of these tumors is adenocarcinoma, which arises within the exocrine component of the pancreas. A minority arises from the islet cells and is classified as a...
. Howe has continued to expand LifeCourse Associates and to write books and articles on a variety of generational topics. Each year Mr. Howe gives about 60 speeches, often followed by customized workshops, at colleges, elementary schools, and corporations.
Works
Strauss and Howe's first book, GenerationsGenerations (book)
Generations is the first book by William Strauss and Neil Howe that describes a cyclical theory of history based on repeating generational archetypes. It examines Anglo-American history by dividing it into saecula, or seasonal cycles of history...
(1991), tells the history of America as a succession of generational biographies from 1584 to present, and identifies a recurring generational cycle in American history. The authors posit a pattern of four repeating phases, generational types and a recurring cycle of spiritual awakenings and secular crises, from the founding colonials through the present day. Generations gave rise to a number of terms that are now widely used, including Millennial Generation and G.I. Generation.
Strauss and Howe followed in 1993 with their second book, 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?, which examines the generation born between 1961 and 1981, "Gen-Xers" (alias "13ers", since they are literally the thirteenth generation since America became a nation, although the X in 'Gen X' originally stood for the Roman number ten, meaning the 10th Generation since America became a nation about 200 years prior, a common misconception leading to 'Gen Y', etc., instead of 'Gen XI'). The book shows how 13ers' location in history—they were children during the Consciousness Revolution—explains their pragmatic attitude and lack of generational cohesion.
In 1997, the authors published The Fourth Turning, which expanded on the ideas presented in Generations. Examining 500 years of Anglo-American history, The Fourth Turning reveals a distinct historical pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting approximately the length of a long human life (about 80–90 years), and each composed of four different types of mood eras, or "turnings". Offering a detailed analysis of the period from the Great Depression through today, the authors describe the collective persona of each living generation. These include the upbeat, team-playing G.I.s, the indecisive Silent, the values-obsessed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the new coming-of-age generation of upbeat, team-playing, Millennials. By situating each living generation in the context of a historical generational cycle and archetype, the authors claim to clarify the personality and role of each—and the inevitability of a coming crisis in America.
In 2000 the two authors published Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation (2000). This work investigated the personality of the generation currently coming of age, whose first cohorts were the high school graduating class of 2000. Strauss and Howe show how today's teens are recasting the image of youth from downbeat and alienated to upbeat and engaged. They also say Millennials are held to higher standards than adults apply to themselves; they are a lot less violent, vulgar, and sexually charged than the teen culture older people are producing for them, and, over the next decade, they will transform what it means to be young. According to the authors, Millennials could emerge as the next great generation.
LifeCourse Associates has since released several application books on Millennials—including Recruiting Millennials Handbook for the United States Army (2001), Millennials go to College (2003) and Millennials and the Pop Culture (2005). Millennials go to College: 2nd Edition came out in 2007, along with Millennials Go to College: Surveys and Analysis, the first significant study of college students and their parents by generation. Millennials and K-12 Schools and Millennials in the Workplace are soon to be released.
Before the duo met in the 1980s, William Strauss began studying generations in the 1970s, when he wrote a book about the Baby Boomers on how the Vietnam War affected them called Chance and Circumstance: The Draft the War and The Vietnam Generation (1978) with Lawrence Baskir, while serving under President Ford, dealing with the draft and amnesty issue which also included the book Reconciliation after Vietnam (1977) that determined the future of U.S. military enlistment after the war. Neil Howe studied America's entitlement
Entitlement
An entitlement is a guarantee of access to benefits based on established rights or by legislation. A "right" is itself an entitlement associated with a moral or social principle, such that an "entitlement" is a provision made in accordance with legal framework of a society...
attitude of the 1980s with the Concord Coalition
Concord Coalition
The Concord Coalition is a political advocacy group in the United States, formed in 1992. A bipartisan organization, it was founded by former U.S. Senator Warren Rudman, former Secretary of Commerce Peter George Peterson, and the late U.S. Senator Paul Tsongas. The Concord Coalition's advocacy...
and wrote On Borrowed Time: How America's entitlement ego puts America's future at risk of Bankruptcy (1988).
Defining a generation
Strauss and Howe define a social generation as the aggregate of all people born over a span of roughly twenty years, or about the length of one phase of life: childhoodChildhood
Childhood is the age span ranging from birth to adolescence. In developmental psychology, childhood is divided up into the developmental stages of toddlerhood , early childhood , middle childhood , and adolescence .- Age ranges of childhood :The term childhood is non-specific and can imply a...
, young adulthood
Young adult (psychology)
A young adult, according to Erik Erikson's stages of human development, is generally a person between the age of 20 - 40, whereas an adolescent is a person between the age of 13 - 19, although definitions and opinions vary. The young adult stage in human development precedes middle adulthood. A...
, midlife
Middle age
Middle age is the period of age beyond young adulthood but before the onset of old age. Various attempts have been made to define this age, which is around the third quarter of the average life span of human beings....
, and old age
Old age
Old age consists of ages nearing or surpassing the average life span of human beings, and thus the end of the human life cycle...
. Particular generations are identified (from first birthyear to last) by looking for cohort groups of this length that share three criteria. First, members of a generation share what the authors call an age location in history: they encounter key historical events and social trends while occupying the same phase of life. Because members of a generation are shaped in lasting ways by the eras they encounter as children and young adults, they also tend to share certain common beliefs and behaviors. Aware of the experiences and traits that they share with their peers, members of a generation also tend to share a sense of common perceived membership in that generation. For example, in a 2007 Harvard Institute of Politics
Harvard Institute of Politics
Harvard Institute of Politics was created to serve as a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy and inspire Harvard students into careers in politics and public service, much as President Kennedy was inspired during his days as a student at Harvard. The IOP also brings together the academic...
survey, Americans born 1982 to 1989 (whom Strauss and Howe define as the first-wave cohorts of the Millennial Generation) identified themselves as belonging to a “unique and distinct” generation, with an outlook different from people in their 30s or older. Surveys show that Boomers also strongly identify with their own age cohort.
| Prophet | Nomad | Hero | Artist | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Childhood | Elderhood | Midlife | Young Adult |
| Awakening | Young Adult | Childhood | Elderhood | Midlife |
| Unraveling | Midlife | Young Adult | Childhood | Elderhood |
| Crisis | Elderhood | Midlife | Young Adult | Childhood |
Strauss and Howe base their definition of a generation on the work of diverse writers and social thinkers, from ancient writers such as Polybius
Polybius
Polybius , Greek ) was a Greek historian of the Hellenistic Period noted for his work, The Histories, which covered the period of 220–146 BC in detail. The work describes in part the rise of the Roman Republic and its gradual domination over Greece...
and Ibn Khaldun
Ibn Khaldun
Ibn Khaldūn or Ibn Khaldoun was an Arab Tunisian historiographer and historian who is often viewed as one of the forerunners of modern historiography, sociology and economics...
to modern social theorists like José Ortega y Gasset
José Ortega y Gasset
José Ortega y Gasset was a Spanish liberal philosopher and essayist working during the first half of the 20th century while Spain oscillated between monarchy, republicanism and dictatorship. He was, along with Nietzsche, a proponent of the idea of perspectivism.-Biography:José Ortega y Gasset was...
, Karl Mannheim
Karl Mannheim
Karl Mannheim , or Károly Mannheim in the original writing of his name, was a Jewish Hungarian-born sociologist, influential in the first half of the 20th century and one of the founding fathers of classical sociology and a founder of the sociology of knowledge.-Life:Mannheim studied in Budapest,...
, John Stuart Mill
John Stuart Mill
John Stuart Mill was a British philosopher, economist and civil servant. An influential contributor to social theory, political theory, and political economy, his conception of liberty justified the freedom of the individual in opposition to unlimited state control. He was a proponent of...
, Émile Littré
Émile Littré
Émile Maximilien Paul Littré was a French lexicographer and philosopher, best known for his Dictionnaire de la langue française, commonly called "The Littré".-Biography:Émile Littré was born in Paris...
, Auguste Comte
Auguste Comte
Isidore Auguste Marie François Xavier Comte , better known as Auguste Comte , was a French philosopher, a founder of the discipline of sociology and of the doctrine of positivism...
, and François Mentré.
Generational archetypes and Turnings
| Generations |
|---|
|
While writing Generations, Strauss and Howe discovered a pattern in the historical generations they examined. Generations that come of age as young adults during a Crisis or an Awakening directly absorb the lessons of that defining era, and carry these lessons forward in their attitudes and behaviors later in life. Strauss and Howe label these dominant generations. Generations that grow up as children during a Crisis or Awakening take a dependent role during that defining era, which shapes their later attitudes and behaviors very differently. Strauss and Howe label these recessive generations.
Archetypes
The two different types of eras and two formative age locations associated with them (childhood and young adulthood) produce four generational archetypes that repeat sequentially, in rhythm with the cycle of Crises and Awakenings. In Generations, Strauss and Howe refer to these four archetypes as Idealist, Reactive, Civic, and Adaptive. In The Fourth Turning (1997) they update this terminology to Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist. The generations in each archetype not only share a similar age-location in history, they also share some basic attitudes towards family, risk, culture and values, and civic engagement. In essence, generations shaped by similar early-life experiences develop similar collective personas and follow similar life-trajectories.To date, Strauss and Howe have identified 25 generations in Anglo-American history, each with a corresponding archetype. The authors describe the archetypes as follows:
Prophet
John Winthrop
John Winthrop was a wealthy English Puritan lawyer, and one of the leading figures in the founding of the Massachusetts Bay Colony, the first major settlement in New England after Plymouth Colony. Winthrop led the first large wave of migrants from England in 1630, and served as governor for 12 of...
, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams
Samuel Adams
Samuel Adams was an American statesman, political philosopher, and one of the Founding Fathers of the United States. As a politician in colonial Massachusetts, Adams was a leader of the movement that became the American Revolution, and was one of the architects of the principles of American...
, Benjamin Franklin
Benjamin Franklin
Dr. Benjamin Franklin was one of the Founding Fathers of the United States. A noted polymath, Franklin was a leading author, printer, political theorist, politician, postmaster, scientist, musician, inventor, satirist, civic activist, statesman, and diplomat...
, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln
Abraham Lincoln
Abraham Lincoln was the 16th President of the United States, serving from March 1861 until his assassination in April 1865. He successfully led his country through a great constitutional, military and moral crisis – the American Civil War – preserving the Union, while ending slavery, and...
, Herbert Hoover
Herbert Hoover
Herbert Clark Hoover was the 31st President of the United States . Hoover was originally a professional mining engineer and author. As the United States Secretary of Commerce in the 1920s under Presidents Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge, he promoted partnerships between government and business...
, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists who waged idealistic wars and incited others to sacrifice. Few of them fought themselves in decisive wars, and they are remembered more for their inspiring words than for great actions. (Example among today’s living generations: Boomers.)
Nomad
Nomad generations (recessive) are born during an Awakening, a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults are passionately attacking the established institutional order. Nomads grow up as under-protected children during this Awakening, come of age as alienated, post-Awakening adults, become pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and age into resilient post-Crisis elders. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their fast-paced, alienated rising-adult years and their midlife years of pragmatic leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of liberty, survival and honor. Their best-known historical leaders include Nathaniel Bacon, William StoughtonWilliam Stoughton (Massachusetts)
William Stoughton was a colonial magistrate and admininstrator in the Province of Massachusetts Bay. He was in charge of what have come to be known as the Salem Witch Trials, first as the Chief Justice of the Special Court of Oyer and Terminer in 1692, and then as the Chief Justice of the...
, George Washington
George Washington
George Washington was the dominant military and political leader of the new United States of America from 1775 to 1799. He led the American victory over Great Britain in the American Revolutionary War as commander-in-chief of the Continental Army from 1775 to 1783, and presided over the writing of...
, John Adams
John Adams
John Adams was an American lawyer, statesman, diplomat and political theorist. A leading champion of independence in 1776, he was the second President of the United States...
, Ulysses Grant, Grover Cleveland
Grover Cleveland
Stephen Grover Cleveland was the 22nd and 24th president of the United States. Cleveland is the only president to serve two non-consecutive terms and therefore is the only individual to be counted twice in the numbering of the presidents...
, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower. These were shrewd realists who preferred individualistic, pragmatic solutions to problems. (Example among today’s living generations: Generation X
Generation X
Generation X, commonly abbreviated to Gen X, is the generation born after the Western post–World War II baby boom ended. While there is no universally agreed upon time frame, the term generally includes people born from the early 1960's through the early 1980's, usually no later than 1981 or...
.)
Hero
Cotton Mather
Cotton Mather, FRS was a socially and politically influential New England Puritan minister, prolific author and pamphleteer; he is often remembered for his role in the Salem witch trials...
, Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson was the principal author of the United States Declaration of Independence and the Statute of Virginia for Religious Freedom , the third President of the United States and founder of the University of Virginia...
, James Madison
James Madison
James Madison, Jr. was an American statesman and political theorist. He was the fourth President of the United States and is hailed as the “Father of the Constitution” for being the primary author of the United States Constitution and at first an opponent of, and then a key author of the United...
, John F. Kennedy
John F. Kennedy
John Fitzgerald "Jack" Kennedy , often referred to by his initials JFK, was the 35th President of the United States, serving from 1961 until his assassination in 1963....
and Ronald Reagan
Ronald Reagan
Ronald Wilson Reagan was the 40th President of the United States , the 33rd Governor of California and, prior to that, a radio, film and television actor....
. These have been vigorous and rational institution builders. In midlife, all have been aggressive advocates of economic prosperity and public optimism, and all have maintained a reputation for civic energy and competence in old age. (Examples among today’s living generations: G.I.s and Millennials.)
Artist
Artist generations (recessive) are born during a Crisis, a time when great dangers cut down social and political complexity in favor of public consensus, aggressive institutions, and an ethic of personal sacrifice. Artists grow up overprotected by adults preoccupied with the Crisis, come of age as the socialized and conformist young adults of a post-Crisis world, break out as process-oriented midlife leaders during an Awakening, and age into thoughtful post-Awakening elders. Due to this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their quiet years of rising adulthood and their midlife years of flexible, consensus-building leadership. Their main societal contributions are in the area of expertise and due processDue process
Due process is the legal code that the state must venerate all of the legal rights that are owed to a person under the principle. Due process balances the power of the state law of the land and thus protects individual persons from it...
. Their best-known historical leaders include William Shirley
William Shirley
William Shirley was a British colonial administrator who served twice as Governor of the Province of Massachusetts Bay and as Governor of the Bahamas in the 1760s...
, Cadwallader Colden
Cadwallader Colden
Cadwallader Colden was a physician, farmer, surveyor, botanist, and a lieutenant governor for the Province of New York.-Biography:...
, John Quincy Adams
John Quincy Adams
John Quincy Adams was the sixth President of the United States . He served as an American diplomat, Senator, and Congressional representative. He was a member of the Federalist, Democratic-Republican, National Republican, and later Anti-Masonic and Whig parties. Adams was the son of former...
, Andrew Jackson
Andrew Jackson
Andrew Jackson was the seventh President of the United States . Based in frontier Tennessee, Jackson was a politician and army general who defeated the Creek Indians at the Battle of Horseshoe Bend , and the British at the Battle of New Orleans...
, Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore "Teddy" Roosevelt was the 26th President of the United States . He is noted for his exuberant personality, range of interests and achievements, and his leadership of the Progressive Movement, as well as his "cowboy" persona and robust masculinity...
and Woodrow Wilson
Woodrow Wilson
Thomas Woodrow Wilson was the 28th President of the United States, from 1913 to 1921. A leader of the Progressive Movement, he served as President of Princeton University from 1902 to 1910, and then as the Governor of New Jersey from 1911 to 1913...
. These have been complex social technicians and advocates for fairness and inclusion. (Examples among today’s living generations: Silent
Silent Generation
Silent Generation is a label for the generation born from 1925–1945 notably during the Great Depression and World War II . While the label was originally applied to people in North America, it has also been applied to those in Western Europe and Australasia...
and Homelanders
Generation Z
Generation Z is a common name in the US and other Western nations for the group of people born from the early 1990s through to the present....
.)
One reason why the cycle of archetypes recurs is that each youth generation tries to correct or compensate for what it perceives as the excesses of the midlife generation in power. For example, Boomers (a Prophet generation, whose strength is individualism, culture and values) raised Millennial children (a Hero generation, whose strength is in collective civic action). Archetypes do not create archetypes like themselves, they create opposing archetypes. As Strauss and Howe explain, “your generation isn’t like the generation that shaped you, but it has much in common with the generation that shaped the generation that shaped you.” This also occurs because the societal role that feels freshest to each generation of youth is the role being vacated by a generation of elders that is passing away. In other words, a youth generation comes of age and defines its collective persona just as an opposing generational archetype is in its midlife peak of power, and the previous generation of their archetype is passing away.
Turnings
In Generations, and in greater detail in The Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe identify a four-stage cycle of social or mood eras, which they call turnings. These include the Crisis and Awakening eras already described, as well as a post-Crisis and post-Awakening era. Each turning lasts about twenty years. Four turnings comprise a full cycle of about 80 to 90 years, which the authors term a saeculumSaeculum
A saeculum is a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or the equivalent of the complete renewal of a human population. The term was first used by the Etruscans. Originally it meant the period of time from the moment that something happened until the point in time that...
, after the Latin word meaning both “a long human life” and “a natural century.”
Generational change drives the cycle of turnings and determines its periodicity
Frequency
Frequency is the number of occurrences of a repeating event per unit time. It is also referred to as temporal frequency.The period is the duration of one cycle in a repeating event, so the period is the reciprocal of the frequency...
. As each generation ages into the next life phase (and a new social role) society’s mood and behavior fundamentally changes, giving rise to a new turning. Therefore, a symbiotic
Symbiosis
Symbiosis is close and often long-term interaction between different biological species. In 1877 Bennett used the word symbiosis to describe the mutualistic relationship in lichens...
relationship exists between historical events and generational personas. Historical events shape generations in childhood and young adulthood; then, as parents and leaders in midlife and old age, generations in turn shape history.
Each of the four turnings has a distinct mood that recurs every saeculum. Strauss and Howe describe these turnings as the “seasons of history.” At one extreme is the Awakening, which is analogous to summer, and at the other extreme is the Crisis, which is analogous to winter. The turnings in between are transitional seasons, similar to fall and spring. Strauss and Howe have identified 26 turnings over 7 saecula in Anglo-American history, from the year 1435 through today.
At the heart of the Strauss-Howe theory is a basic alteration between two different types of eras, Crises and Awakenings. Both of these are defining eras in which people observe that historic events are radically altering their social environment. Crises are periods marked by major secular upheaval, when society focuses on reorganizing the outer world of institutions and public behavior (the last American Crisis was the period spanning the Great Depression
Great Depression
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s...
and World War II
World War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
). Awakenings are periods marked by cultural or religious renewal, when society focuses on changing the inner world of values and private behavior (the last American Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution” of the 1960s and 1970s). During Crises, great peril provokes a societal consensus, an ethic of personal sacrifice, and strong institutional order. During Awakenings, an ethic of individualism emerges, and the institutional order is attacked by new social ideals and spiritual agendas. According to the authors, about every eighty to ninety years—the length of a long human life—a national Crisis occurs in American society. Roughly halfway to the next Crisis, a cultural Awakening occurs (historically, these have often been called Great Awakenings).
In describing this cycle of Crises and Awakenings, Strauss and Howe draw from the work of other historians and social scientists who have identified long cycles in American and European history. The Strauss-Howe cycle of Crises corresponds with long cycles of war identified by such scholars as Arnold J. Toynbee
Arnold J. Toynbee
Arnold Joseph Toynbee CH was a British historian whose twelve-volume analysis of the rise and fall of civilizations, A Study of History, 1934–1961, was a synthesis of world history, a metahistory based on universal rhythms of rise, flowering and decline, which examined history from a global...
, Quincy Wright
Quincy Wright
Philip Quincy Wright was an American political scientist known for his pioneering work and expertise in international law and international relations.- Biography :...
, and L.L. Ferrar Jr., and with geopolitical cycles identified by William R. Thompson and George Modelski
George Modelski
George Modelski is Professor of Political Science Emeritus in the University of Washington. Modelski has done work on long-term processes in global politics and economics, as well as the world urban macrodynamics and world system evolution.-Books:*Globalization as Evolutionary Process: Modeling...
. The Strauss-Howe cycle of Awakenings corresponds with Anthony Wallace’s definitive work on revitalization movements, which scholars such as William Mcloughlin and Robert Fogel
Robert Fogel
Robert William Fogel is an American economic historian and scientist, and winner of the 1993 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. He is now the Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of American Institutions and director of the Center for Population Economics at the...
have suggested are cyclical. Strauss and Howe also examine how recurring Crises and Awakenings correspond with two-stroke cycles in politics (Walter Dean Burnham
Walter Dean Burnham
Walter Dean Burnham is a leading expert on American elections and voting patterns. He is best known for quantitative analysis of national trends and patterns in the popular vote, in developing the "Party Systems" model, and for assembling county election returns for the whole...
, Arthur Schlesinger Sr. and Jr.), foreign affairs (Frank L. Klingberg), and the economy (Nikolai Kondratieff) as well as with long-term oscillations in crime and substance abuse.
High
The First Turning is a High. This is a post-Crisis era when institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by the conformity. America’s most recent First Turning was the post-World War II American High, beginning in 1946 and ending with the assassination of President John F. KennedyJohn F. Kennedy assassination
John Fitzgerald Kennedy, the thirty-fifth President of the United States, was assassinated at 12:30 p.m. Central Standard Time on Friday, November 22, 1963, in Dealey Plaza, Dallas, Texas...
on November 22, 1963. The Silent Generation (Artist archetype, born 1925 to 1942) came of age during this era. Known for their caution, conformity, and institutional trust, Silent young adults epitomized the mood of the High. Most married early, sought stable corporate jobs, and moved into new suburbs.
Awakening
The Second Turning is an Awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of personal authenticity. Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty. America’s most recent Awakening was the “Consciousness Revolution,” which spanned from the campus and inner-city revolts of the mid 1960s to the tax revolts of the mid 1980s. The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943 to 1960) came of age during this era. Their idealism and search for authentic self-expression epitomized the mood of the Awakening.Unraveling
The Third Turning is an Unraveling. The mood of this era is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Highs come after Crises, when society wants to coalesce and build. Unravelings come after Awakenings, when society wants to atomize and enjoy. America’s most recent Unraveling was the Long Boom1990s United States boom
The 1990s boom in the United States of America was a period of economic prosperity, largely coinciding with the presidency of Bill Clinton and the Republican Revolution.- The "long boom" :The term "long boom" was also used during the 1990s when the U.S...
and Culture Wars, beginning in the mid 1980s and ending in the late 2000s. The era began during the second term of (Reagan’s “Morning in America
Morning in America
"Morning in America" is the common name of an effective political campaign television commercial formally titled "Prouder, Stronger, Better" and featuring the opening line "It's morning again in America." The ad was part of the 1984 U.S. presidential campaign of Republican Party candidate Ronald...
”), which has developed into an edgy popular culture, a pervasive distrust of institutions and leaders, and the splitting of national consensus into competing “values” camps. Generation X (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981) came of age during this era. Their risk-taking, free agency
Free agent (business)
In business, a free agent refers to someone who works independently for oneself, rather than for a single employer. These include self-employed workers, independent contractors and temporary workers, who altogether represent about 22 percent of the U.S. labor force. The term free agent is...
, and market orientation epitomized the mood of the Unraveling.
Crisis
The Fourth Turning is a Crisis. This is an era in which America’s institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation’s survival. Civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group. Fourth Turnings have all been new “founding moments” in America’s history, moments that redefined the national identity. America’s most recent Fourth Turning began with the stock market crash of 1929 and climaxed with the end of World War IIWorld War II
World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis...
. The G.I. Generation (Hero archetype, born 1901 to 1924) came of age during this era. Their confidence, optimism, and collective outlook epitomized the mood of the era. Today’s youth, the Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982 to 2000), show many traits similar to those of the G.I. youth, including rising civic engagement, improving behavior, and collective confidence.
Timing of generations and turnings
| Generation | Type | Birth years | Formative era |
|---|---|---|---|
| Late Medieval Saeculum | |||
| Arthurian Generation | Hero (Civic) | 1433–1460 (27) | Unraveling: Retreat from France Hundred Years' War The Hundred Years' War was a series of separate wars waged from 1337 to 1453 by the House of Valois and the House of Plantagenet, also known as the House of Anjou, for the French throne, which had become vacant upon the extinction of the senior Capetian line of French kings... |
| Humanist Generation | Artist (Adaptive) | 1461–1482 (21) | Crisis: War of the Roses Wars of the Roses The Wars of the Roses were a series of dynastic civil wars for the throne of England fought between supporters of two rival branches of the royal House of Plantagenet: the houses of Lancaster and York... |
| Reformation Saeculum (104) | |||
| Reformation Generation | Prophet (Idealist) | 1483–1511 (28) | High: Tudor Renaissance English Renaissance The English Renaissance was a cultural and artistic movement in England dating from the late 15th and early 16th centuries to the early 17th century. It is associated with the pan-European Renaissance that is usually regarded as beginning in Italy in the late 14th century; like most of northern... |
| Reprisal Generation | Nomad (Reactive) | 1512–1540 (28) | Awakening: Protestant Reformation Protestant Reformation The Protestant Reformation was a 16th-century split within Western Christianity initiated by Martin Luther, John Calvin and other early Protestants. The efforts of the self-described "reformers", who objected to the doctrines, rituals and ecclesiastical structure of the Roman Catholic Church, led... |
| Elizabethan Generation | Hero (Civic) | 1541–1565 (24) | Unraveling: Intolerance and Martyrdom |
| Parliamentarian Generation | Artist (Adaptive) | 1566–1587 (21) | Crisis: Armada Crisis Spanish Armada This article refers to the Battle of Gravelines, for the modern navy of Spain, see Spanish NavyThe Spanish Armada was the Spanish fleet that sailed against England under the command of the Duke of Medina Sidonia in 1588, with the intention of overthrowing Elizabeth I of England to stop English... |
| New World Saeculum (112) | |||
| Puritan Generation | Prophet (Idealist) | 1588–1617 (29) | High: Merrie England Merry England "Merry England", or in more jocular, archaic spelling "Merrie England", refers to an English autostereotype, a utopian conception of English society and culture based on an idyllic pastoral way of life that was allegedly prevalent at some time between the Middle Ages and the onset of the Industrial... |
| Cavalier Generation | Nomad (Reactive) | 1618–1647 (29) | Awakening: Puritan Awakening |
| Glorious Generation | Hero (Civic) | 1648–1673 (25) | Unraveling: Religious Intolerance |
| Enlightenment Generation | Artist (Adaptive) | 1674–1700 (26) | Crisis: King Philip's War King Philip's War King Philip's War, sometimes called Metacom's War, Metacomet's War, or Metacom's Rebellion, was an armed conflict between Native American inhabitants of present-day southern New England and English colonists and their Native American allies in 1675–76. The war is named after the main leader of the... / Glorious Revolution Glorious Revolution The Glorious Revolution, also called the Revolution of 1688, is the overthrow of King James II of England by a union of English Parliamentarians with the Dutch stadtholder William III of Orange-Nassau... |
| Revolutionary Saeculum (90) | |||
| Awakening Generation | Prophet (Idealist) | 1701–1723 (22) | High: Augustan Age of Empire Augustan literature Augustan literature is a style of English literature produced during the reigns of Queen Anne, King George I, and George II on the 1740s with the deaths of Pope and Swift... |
| Liberty Generation | Nomad (Reactive) | 1724–1741 (17) | Awakening: Great Awakening First Great Awakening The First Awakening was a Christian revitalization movement that swept Protestant Europe and British America, and especially the American colonies in the 1730s and 1740s, leaving a permanent impact on American religion. It resulted from powerful preaching that gave listeners a sense of personal... |
| Republican Generation | Hero (Civic) | 1742–1766 (24) | Unraveling: French and Indian War French and Indian War The French and Indian War is the common American name for the war between Great Britain and France in North America from 1754 to 1763. In 1756, the war erupted into the world-wide conflict known as the Seven Years' War and thus came to be regarded as the North American theater of that war... |
| Compromise Generation | Artist (Adaptive) | 1767–1791 (24) | Crisis: American Revolution American Revolution The American Revolution was the political upheaval during the last half of the 18th century in which thirteen colonies in North America joined together to break free from the British Empire, combining to become the United States of America... |
| Civil War Saeculum (67) | |||
| Transcendental Generation | Prophet (Idealist) | 1792–1821 (29) | High: Era of Good Feeling |
| Gilded Generation | Nomad (Reactive) | 1822–1842 (20) | Awakening: Transcendental Awakening Second Great Awakening The Second Great Awakening was a Christian revival movement during the early 19th century in the United States. The movement began around 1800, had begun to gain momentum by 1820, and was in decline by 1870. The Second Great Awakening expressed Arminian theology, by which every person could be... |
| Hero (Civic)0 | |||
| Progressive Generation | Artist (Adaptive) | 1843–1859 (16) | Crisis: American Civil War American Civil War The American Civil War was a civil war fought in the United States of America. In response to the election of Abraham Lincoln as President of the United States, 11 southern slave states declared their secession from the United States and formed the Confederate States of America ; the other 25... |
| Great Power Saeculum (85) | |||
| Missionary Generation | Prophet (Idealist) | 1860–1882 (22) | High: Reconstruction/Gilded Age Gilded Age In United States history, the Gilded Age refers to the era of rapid economic and population growth in the United States during the post–Civil War and post-Reconstruction eras of the late 19th century. The term "Gilded Age" was coined by Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner in their book The Gilded... |
| Lost Generation Lost Generation The "Lost Generation" is a term used to refer to the generation, actually a cohort, that came of age during World War I. The term was popularized by Ernest Hemingway who used it as one of two contrasting epigraphs for his novel, The Sun Also Rises. In that volume Hemingway credits the phrase to... |
Nomad (Reactive) | 1883–1900 (17) | Awakening: Missionary Awakening Third Great Awakening The Third Great Awakening was a period of religious activism in American history from the late 1850s to the early 1900s. It affected pietistic Protestant denominations and had a strong sense of social activism. It gathered strength from the postmillennial theology that the Second Coming of Christ... |
| G.I. Generation | Hero (Civic) | 1901–1924 (23) | Unraveling: World War I World War I World War I , which was predominantly called the World War or the Great War from its occurrence until 1939, and the First World War or World War I thereafter, was a major war centred in Europe that began on 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918... /Prohibition Prohibition in the United States Prohibition in the United States was a national ban on the sale, manufacture, and transportation of alcohol, in place from 1920 to 1933. The ban was mandated by the Eighteenth Amendment to the Constitution, and the Volstead Act set down the rules for enforcing the ban, as well as defining which... |
| Silent Generation Silent Generation Silent Generation is a label for the generation born from 1925–1945 notably during the Great Depression and World War II . While the label was originally applied to people in North America, it has also been applied to those in Western Europe and Australasia... |
Artist (Adaptive) | 1925–1942 (20) | Crisis: Great Depression Great Depression in the United States The Great Depression began with the Wall Street Crash of October, 1929 and rapidly spread worldwide. The market crash marked the beginning of a decade of high unemployment, poverty, low profits, deflation, plunging farm incomes, and lost opportunities for economic growth and personal advancement... /World War II World War II World War II, or the Second World War , was a global conflict lasting from 1939 to 1945, involving most of the world's nations—including all of the great powers—eventually forming two opposing military alliances: the Allies and the Axis... |
| Millennial Saeculum (65+) | |||
| (Baby) Boom Generation | Prophet (Idealist) | 1943–1960 (17) | High: Superpower America |
| 13th Generation (a.k.a Generation X Generation X Generation X, commonly abbreviated to Gen X, is the generation born after the Western post–World War II baby boom ended. While there is no universally agreed upon time frame, the term generally includes people born from the early 1960's through the early 1980's, usually no later than 1981 or... )1 |
Nomad (Reactive) | 1961–1981 (20) | Awakening: Consciousness Revolution |
| Millennial Generation(Generation Y)2 | Hero (Civic) | 1982–2000 (18) | Unraveling: Culture Wars, Postmodernism Postmodernism Postmodernism is a philosophical movement evolved in reaction to modernism, the tendency in contemporary culture to accept only objective truth and to be inherently suspicious towards a global cultural narrative or meta-narrative. Postmodernist thought is an intentional departure from the... , Internet Revolution |
| New Silent Generation (Generation Z)34 | Artist (Adaptive) | 2001–present (10+) | Crisis: Global Finnacial Crisis, War on Terror War on Terror The War on Terror is a term commonly applied to an international military campaign led by the United States and the United Kingdom with the support of other North Atlantic Treaty Organisation as well as non-NATO countries... ,and Globalization |
The basic length of both generations and turnings—about twenty years—derives from longstanding socially and biologically determined phases of life. This is the reason it has remained relatively constant over centuries. Some have argued that rapid increases in technology in recent decades are shortening the length of a generation. According to Strauss and Howe, however, this is not the case. As long as the transition to adulthood occurs around age 20, the transition to midlife around age 40, and the transition to old age around age 60, the basic length of both generations and turnings will remain the same.
However, Strauss and Howe emphasize that the precise boundaries of generations and turnings can be erratic. The generational rhythm is not like certain simple, inorganic
Inorganic compound
Inorganic compounds have traditionally been considered to be of inanimate, non-biological origin. In contrast, organic compounds have an explicit biological origin. However, over the past century, the classification of inorganic vs organic compounds has become less important to scientists,...
cycles in physics or astronomy, where time and periodicity can be predicted to the second. Instead, it resembles the complex, organic cycles of biology, where basic intervals endure but precise timing is difficult to predict. Strauss and Howe compare the saecular rhythm to the seasons of the year, which inevitably occur in the same order, but with slightly varying timing. Just as winter may come sooner or later, and be more or less severe in any given year, the same is true of a Fourth Turning in any given saeculum.
America's current position in the cycle
Howe posits that America is currently in or about to enter a Fourth Turning. The individualism, risk-taking, and conspicuous consumption of the recent Third Turning are winding down, and today’s social mood is marked by new sobriety about unpaid debts at home and unmet challenges abroad. Society is beginning to view the recent Third Turning as a period of drift when public problems were allowed to accumulate—problems that are now reaching a level of urgency where the nation must tackle them head-on.Like all turnings, Fourth Turnings are pushed by the aging of each generation into a new phase of life. Yet unlike other turnings, the emerging lineup of generational archetypes is likely to push history forward in a sudden, concerted, and decisive direction. According to Howe, this is true today as well. As Boomers replace the Silent as elder leaders, they will reject caution and compromise and act on moral absolutes
Moral absolutism
Moral absolutism is an ethical view that certain actions are absolutely right or wrong, regardless of other contexts such as their consequences or the intentions behind them. Thus stealing, for instance, might be considered to be always immoral, even if done to promote some other good , and even if...
. As Gen Xers replace Boomers in midlife, they will apply a new pragmatic survivalism
Survivalism
Survivalism is a movement of individuals or groups who are actively preparing for future possible disruptions in local, regional, national, or international social or political order...
to management decisions. As Millennials replace Gen Xers in young adulthood, they will revitalize community, social discipline, and public purpose.
According to Strauss and Howe, there are many potential threats that could feed a growing sense of public urgency as the Fourth Turning progresses, including financial collapse, a protracted war on terror
War on Terror
The War on Terror is a term commonly applied to an international military campaign led by the United States and the United Kingdom with the support of other North Atlantic Treaty Organisation as well as non-NATO countries...
, a crisis of weapons proliferation
Nuclear proliferation
Nuclear proliferation is a term now used to describe the spread of nuclear weapons, fissile material, and weapons-applicable nuclear technology and information, to nations which are not recognized as "Nuclear Weapon States" by the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also known as the...
, an environmental crisis, an energy shortage
Energy crisis
An energy crisis is any great bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In popular literature though, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, particularly those that supply national electricity grids or serve as fuel for vehicles...
, or new civil wars abroad. The generational cycle cannot explain the role or timing of these individual threats. Nor can it account for the great events of history, like the bombing of Pearl Harbor
Attack on Pearl Harbor
The attack on Pearl Harbor was a surprise military strike conducted by the Imperial Japanese Navy against the United States naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on the morning of December 7, 1941...
, President Kennedy’s assassination
John F. Kennedy assassination
John Fitzgerald Kennedy, the thirty-fifth President of the United States, was assassinated at 12:30 p.m. Central Standard Time on Friday, November 22, 1963, in Dealey Plaza, Dallas, Texas...
, or 9/11. What the generational cycle can do, however, is explain how society is likely to respond to these events in different eras. It is the response, not the initial event, which defines an era.
With the generations aligned as they are now, the risk of a major continuing Crisis remains high for the next twenty years. Yet Howe emphasizes that the Fourth Turning will also offer crucial opportunities to fix national or even global problems that seem unsolvable today.
Critical reception
Many reviews of their theory have been favourable. Former U.S Vice President Al GoreAl Gore
Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. served as the 45th Vice President of the United States , under President Bill Clinton. He was the Democratic Party's nominee for President in the 2000 U.S. presidential election....
called Generations
Generations (book)
Generations is the first book by William Strauss and Neil Howe that describes a cyclical theory of history based on repeating generational archetypes. It examines Anglo-American history by dividing it into saecula, or seasonal cycles of history...
the most stimulating book on American history he'd ever read. He even sent a copy to each member of Congress.
Some reviewers of the duo's books, such as the New York Times' Michael Lind have criticized their theories for being too vague, and for verging into the realm of pseudoscience
Pseudoscience
Pseudoscience is a claim, belief, or practice which is presented as scientific, but which does not adhere to a valid scientific method, lacks supporting evidence or plausibility, cannot be reliably tested, or otherwise lacks scientific status...
. Lind claims that the theory is essentially "non-falsifiable" and "mystifying," although they do have some insights into modern American history.
Publishers Weekly
Publishers Weekly
Publishers Weekly, aka PW, is an American weekly trade news magazine targeted at publishers, librarians, booksellers and literary agents...
called the book "as woolly as a newspaper horoscope
Horoscope
In astrology, a horoscope is a chart or diagram representing the positions of the Sun, Moon, planets, the astrological aspects, and sensitive angles at the time of an event, such as the moment of a person's birth. The word horoscope is derived from Greek words meaning "a look at the hours" In...
" and many academics have been dismissive. Arthur E. Levine, a former president of the Teachers College of Columbia University
Columbia University
Columbia University in the City of New York is a private, Ivy League university in Manhattan, New York City. Columbia is the oldest institution of higher learning in the state of New York, the fifth oldest in the United States, and one of the country's nine Colonial Colleges founded before the...
said "Generational images are stereotypes. There are some differences that stand out, but there are more similarities between students of the past and the present. But if you wrote a book saying that, how interesting would that book be?"
Works
- Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (1991)
- The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny(1997)
- The Next Twenty Years: How Customer and Workforce Attitudes Will Evolve (2007)
- Millennials Go to College: Strategies for a New Generation on Campus (2008)