Survey of Professional Forecasters
Encyclopedia
The Survey of Professional Forecasters, also called, The Anxious Index, is a highly predictive report on the prospects for the Economy of the United States
issued quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
. "The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association
and the National Bureau of Economic Research
. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990." "The survey asks panelists to estimate the probability that real GDP will decline in the quarter in which the survey is taken and in each of the following four quarters." "The index often goes up just before recessions begin. For example, the first quarter survey of 2001 (taken in February) reported a 32 percent anxious index; the National Bureau of Economic Research subsequently declared the start of a recession in March 2001. The anxious index peaks during recessions, then declines when recovery seems near. For example, the index fell to 14 percent in the second quarter of 2002, when economic indicators began improving."
Economy of the United States
The economy of the United States is the world's largest national economy. Its nominal GDP was estimated to be nearly $14.5 trillion in 2010, approximately a quarter of nominal global GDP. The European Union has a larger collective economy, but is not a single nation...
issued quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is responsible for the Third District of the Federal Reserve, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, the 9 southern counties of New Jersey, and Delaware...
. "The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association
American Statistical Association
The American Statistical Association , is the main professional US organization for statisticians and related professions. It was founded in Boston, Massachusetts on November 27, 1839, and is the second oldest, continuously operating professional society in the United States...
and the National Bureau of Economic Research
National Bureau of Economic Research
The National Bureau of Economic Research is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community." The NBER is well known for providing start and end...
. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990." "The survey asks panelists to estimate the probability that real GDP will decline in the quarter in which the survey is taken and in each of the following four quarters." "The index often goes up just before recessions begin. For example, the first quarter survey of 2001 (taken in February) reported a 32 percent anxious index; the National Bureau of Economic Research subsequently declared the start of a recession in March 2001. The anxious index peaks during recessions, then declines when recovery seems near. For example, the index fell to 14 percent in the second quarter of 2002, when economic indicators began improving."