The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050
Encyclopedia
The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050 is a non-fiction book by American economist
and demographer Joel Kotkin
. The author outlines a world in which the growing U.S. population reaches four hundred million by 2050. He argues that the U.S. will become more diverse (with a trend towards ethnic/racial mixing) and more competitive, and thus he predicts that the U.S. will experience continual economic growth that advances the populations' standard of living. Kotkin writes that the U.S. "should emerge by mid-century as the most affluent, culturally rich and successful nation in human history."
. Kotkin writes that suburbs provide diversity and new ideas as immigrants
assimilate into American society. He identifies issues with large major cities such as San Francisco, California
and New York City
, New York
. He views those areas as caught inside "the glamorous road to decline" with less incentive for ordinary, working class Americans
to stay and with social policies benefiting the upper crust.
Kotkin envisions a future of "smart sprawl" in which medium to low density suburbs without central dependence on big cities draw in increasing numbers of people. He writes, "in a dramatic change, the new suburbs will be far more diverse ethnically than those of the past".
Kotkin concludes the book by aruging:
(generally center-right) and Alan Wolfe
(generally center-left).
Journalist Joe Friesen wrote for The Globe and Mail
praising the book. He wrote tongue-in-cheek that "American decline is seductive, particularly to Canadians". Friesen remarked, "when it comes to the future, the field tends to be dominated by those who preach doom and gloom... Kotkin provides a well-argued, well-researched and refreshingly calm perspective."
Anti-immigration opinion website VDARE.com published a negative review by Ellison Lodge. Lodge described Kotkin's views as "Ignorant" and "Don't Worry, Be Happy
". Lodge stated that Kotkin ignored that, in Lodge's opinion, "The loss of America’s historic white majority will reduce 'social capital' and increase racial tension. And the sheer number of people will create sprawl, pollution, depletion of resources, and overcrowding of infrastructure."
Philip Langdon panned the book in the New Urban Network. He wrote, "Disseminating information that doesn’t withstand scrutiny seems to be characteristic of Kotkin". Langon argued that Kotkin cherry-picked data points to support the narrative that suburban life is superior to urban life. Langdon described the book's mission as "to disparage dense development, central cities, smart growth, and ambitious government planning."
Economist
An economist is a professional in the social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy...
and demographer Joel Kotkin
Joel Kotkin
Joel Kotkin is a professor of urban development, currently a fellow at Chapman University in Orange, CA and the Legatum Institute, a London-based think tank.Kotkin attended the University of California, Berkeley...
. The author outlines a world in which the growing U.S. population reaches four hundred million by 2050. He argues that the U.S. will become more diverse (with a trend towards ethnic/racial mixing) and more competitive, and thus he predicts that the U.S. will experience continual economic growth that advances the populations' standard of living. Kotkin writes that the U.S. "should emerge by mid-century as the most affluent, culturally rich and successful nation in human history."
Contents
Kotkin focuses on residential patterns among Americans. Contrasting suburbs and smaller cities with large metropolises, Kotkin argues against the thesis of urban theorists such as Jane JacobsJane Jacobs
Jane Jacobs, was an American-Canadian writer and activist with primary interest in communities and urban planning and decay. She is best known for The Death and Life of Great American Cities , a powerful critique of the urban renewal policies of the 1950s in the United States...
. Kotkin writes that suburbs provide diversity and new ideas as immigrants
Immigration to the United States
Immigration to the United States has been a major source of population growth and cultural change throughout much of the history of the United States. The economic, social, and political aspects of immigration have caused controversy regarding ethnicity, economic benefits, jobs for non-immigrants,...
assimilate into American society. He identifies issues with large major cities such as San Francisco, California
California
California is a state located on the West Coast of the United States. It is by far the most populous U.S. state, and the third-largest by land area...
and New York City
New York City
New York is the most populous city in the United States and the center of the New York Metropolitan Area, one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the world. New York exerts a significant impact upon global commerce, finance, media, art, fashion, research, technology, education, and...
, New York
New York
New York is a state in the Northeastern region of the United States. It is the nation's third most populous state. New York is bordered by New Jersey and Pennsylvania to the south, and by Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont to the east...
. He views those areas as caught inside "the glamorous road to decline" with less incentive for ordinary, working class Americans
American middle class
The American middle class is a social class in the United States. While the concept is typically ambiguous in popular opinion and common language use, contemporary social scientists have put forward several, more or less congruent, theories on the American middle class...
to stay and with social policies benefiting the upper crust.
Kotkin envisions a future of "smart sprawl" in which medium to low density suburbs without central dependence on big cities draw in increasing numbers of people. He writes, "in a dramatic change, the new suburbs will be far more diverse ethnically than those of the past".
Kotkin concludes the book by aruging:
"None of it will be easy, and certainly much can go wrong. Still we have no reason to lose faith in the possibilities of the future. For all its problems, America remains, as the journalist John Gunther suggested over sixty years ago, 'lousy with greatness.’ The elements essential to forge a successful nation of four hundred million remain very much within our reach, there for the taking."
Reviews
The book is somewhat unique for the ecumenical nature of its reviews. For example, it received praise from both writers Michael BaroneMichael Barone
Michael Barone may refer to:*Michael Barone , US political expert and conservative commentator*J. Michael Barone , host of the American Public Media programs Pipedreams, The New Releases, and Saint Paul Chamber Orchestra...
(generally center-right) and Alan Wolfe
Alan Wolfe
Alan Wolfe is a political scientist and a sociologist and is currently on the faculty of Boston College and serves as director of the Boisi Center for Religion and American Public Life...
(generally center-left).
Journalist Joe Friesen wrote for The Globe and Mail
The Globe and Mail
The Globe and Mail is a nationally distributed Canadian newspaper, based in Toronto and printed in six cities across the country. With a weekly readership of approximately 1 million, it is Canada's largest-circulation national newspaper and second-largest daily newspaper after the Toronto Star...
praising the book. He wrote tongue-in-cheek that "American decline is seductive, particularly to Canadians". Friesen remarked, "when it comes to the future, the field tends to be dominated by those who preach doom and gloom... Kotkin provides a well-argued, well-researched and refreshingly calm perspective."
Anti-immigration opinion website VDARE.com published a negative review by Ellison Lodge. Lodge described Kotkin's views as "Ignorant" and "Don't Worry, Be Happy
Don't Worry, Be Happy
"Don't Worry, Be Happy" is a song by musician Bobby McFerrin. Released in September 1988, it became the first a cappella song to reach number one on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, a position it held for two weeks. On the UK Singles Chart, the song reached number 2 during its fifth week on the chart...
". Lodge stated that Kotkin ignored that, in Lodge's opinion, "The loss of America’s historic white majority will reduce 'social capital' and increase racial tension. And the sheer number of people will create sprawl, pollution, depletion of resources, and overcrowding of infrastructure."
Philip Langdon panned the book in the New Urban Network. He wrote, "Disseminating information that doesn’t withstand scrutiny seems to be characteristic of Kotkin". Langon argued that Kotkin cherry-picked data points to support the narrative that suburban life is superior to urban life. Langdon described the book's mission as "to disparage dense development, central cities, smart growth, and ambitious government planning."
See also
- Demographics of the United StatesDemographics of the United StatesAs of today's date, the United States has a total resident population of , making it the third most populous country in the world. It is a very urbanized population, with 82% residing in cities and suburbs as of 2008 . This leaves vast expanses of the country nearly uninhabited...
- Immigration to the United StatesImmigration to the United StatesImmigration to the United States has been a major source of population growth and cultural change throughout much of the history of the United States. The economic, social, and political aspects of immigration have caused controversy regarding ethnicity, economic benefits, jobs for non-immigrants,...
- The Death and Life of Great American CitiesThe Death and Life of Great American CitiesThe Death and Life of Great American Cities, by Jane Jacobs, is a greatly influential book on the subject of urban planning in the 20th century...
- The Ultimate ResourceThe Ultimate ResourceThe Ultimate Resource is a 1981 book written by Julian Lincoln Simon challenging the notion that humanity was running out of natural resources...
- 2010 in literature2010 in literatureThe year 2010 in literature involved some significant events and new books.-Events:*February - The Wheeler Centre, Australia's "literary hub", officially opened.*April 3 - First release of the Apple iPad, electronic book reading device....
External links
- Book TV
- Imagining 'The Next Hundred Million' Americans - NPRNPRNPR, formerly National Public Radio, is a privately and publicly funded non-profit membership media organization that serves as a national syndicator to a network of 900 public radio stations in the United States. NPR was created in 1970, following congressional passage of the Public Broadcasting...