The Skeptical Environmentalist
Encyclopedia
The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World is a book by Danish environmentalist author Bjørn Lomborg
, controversial for its claims that overpopulation
, declining energy
resources, deforestation
, species loss
, water shortages
, certain aspects of global warming
, and an assortment of other global environmental issues are unsupported by analysis of the relevant data. It was first published
in Danish
in 1998, while the English
edition was published as a work in environmental economics
by Cambridge University Press
in 2001.
Due to the scope of the project, comprising the range of topics addressed, the diversity of data and sources employed, and the many types of conclusions and comments advanced, The Skeptical Environmentalist does not fit easily into a particular scientific discipline or methodology. Although published by the social sciences division of Cambridge University Press, the findings and conclusions were widely challenged on the basis of natural science
. This interpretation of The Skeptical Environmentalist as a work of environmental science
generated much of the controversy and debate that surrounded the book.
Prior to becoming the Director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center
and Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School
, Bjørn Lomborg was an Associate Professor of Political Science
at the University of Aarhus
.
Some critics focus on his lack of training or professional experience in the environmental sciences or economics
. Supporters argue his research is an appropriate application of his expertise in cost-benefit analysis
, a standard analytical tool in policy assessment. His advocates further note that many of the scientists and environmentalists who criticized the book are not themselves environmental policy experts or experienced in cost-benefit research.
In numerous interviews, Lomborg ascribed his motivation for writing The Skeptical Environmentalist to his personal convictions, making clear that he was a pro-environmentalist and Greenpeace
supporter. He has stated that he began his research as an attempt to counter what he saw as anti-ecological
arguments by Julian Lincoln Simon
in an article in Wired, but changed his mind after starting to analyze data. Lomborg describes the views he attributes to environmental campaigners as the "Litany
", which he at one time claims to have affirmed, but purports to correct in his work.
. Lomborg designated the report "one of the best-researched and academically most ambitious environmental policy publications," but criticized it for using short-term trends to predict disastrous consequences, in cases where long-term trends would not support the same conclusions.
In establishing its arguments, The Skeptical Environmentalist examined a wide range of issues in the general area of environmental studies, including environmental economics and science, and came to an equally broad set of conclusions and recommendations. Lomborg's work directly challenged popular examples of green concerns by interpreting data from some 3,000 assembled sources. The author suggested that environmentalists diverted potentially beneficial resources to less deserving environmental issues in ways that were economically damaging. Much of the book's methodology
and integrity have been subject to criticism which argue that Lomborg distorted the fields of research he covers. Support for the book was staunch as well.
In arriving at the final work, Lomborg has used a similar approach in each of his work's main areas and subtopics. He progresses from the general to the specific, starting with a broad concern, such as pollution
or energy, dividing it into subtopics (e.g. air pollution
; fossil fuel depletion
), and then identifying one or more widely held fears and their source (e.g. our air is growing increasingly toxic, by X measure, according to Y). From there, Lomborg chooses data that he considers to be the most reliable and reasonable available. He then analyzes that data to prove or disprove his selected proposition. In every case, his calculations find that the claim is not substantiated, and is either an exaggeration, or a completely reversed portrayal of an improving situation, rather than a deteriorating one. Having established what he calls "the true state of the world", for each topic and subtopic, Lomborg examines a variety of theories, technologies, implementation strategies and costs, and suggests alternative ways to improve not-so-dire situations, or advance in other areas not currently considered as pressing.
government, United Nations
agencies and others, preferring global long-term data over regional and short-term statistics.
The Skeptical Environmentalist is arranged around four major themes:
Lomborg's main argument is that vast majority of environmental problems such as pollution, water shortages, deforestation, and species loss as well as population growth, hunger, and AIDS, are area-specific and highly correlated with poverty. Therefore, challenges to human prosperity are essentially logistical matters, and can be solved largely through economic and social development. Concerning problems that are more pressing at the global level, such as the depletion of fossil fuels and global warming, Lomborg argues that these issues are often overstated and that recommended policies are often inappropriate if assessed against alternatives.
, food and hunger
, and prosperity, finding that life expectancy and health levels have dramatically improved over the past centuries, even though several regions of the world remain threatened, in particular by AIDS
. He dismisses Thomas Malthus
' theory that increases in the world's population lead to widespread hunger. On the contrary, Lomborg claims that food is widespread, and humanity's daily intake of calories is increasing, and will continue to rise until hunger's eradication, thanks to technological improvements in agriculture. However, Lomborg notes that Africa
in particular still produces too little sustenance, an effect he attributes to the continent's dismal economic and political systems. Concerning prosperity, Lomborg argues that wealth, as measured by per capita GDP, should not be a lone judging criterion. He points to improvements in education, safety, leisure, and ever more widespread access to consumer goods as signs that prosperity is increasing on most parts of the Earth.
, and notes that even the Amazon still retains more than 80% of its 1978 tree cover. Lomborg points out that deforestation is linked to poverty and poor economic conditions in the concerned countries, and proposes higher economic growth to tackle the loss of forests.
Concerning energy, Lomborg asserts that oil is not being depleted as fast as is claimed, and that improvements of technology will provide people with fossil fuels for years to come. The author further asserts that many alternatives already exist, and that with time they will replace fossil fuels as an energy source. Concerning other resources, such as metals, Lomborg suggests that based on their price history they are not in short supply. Examining the challenge of collecting sufficient amounts of water, Lomborg says that wars will probably not erupt over water because fighting such wars is not cost-effective (one week of war with the Palestinians, for instance, would cost Israel
more than five desalination plants, according to an Israeli officer). Lomborg states that the main problem is organizational, and emphasizes the need for better water management, as water is distributed unequally around the world.
, Lomborg notes again that it is connected with economic progress. He also notes that water pollution in major Western rivers deceased rapidly after the use of sewage systems became widespread. Concerning waste
, Lomborg notes once again that fears are overblown, as the entire waste produced by the United States of America in the 21st century could fit into a square whose side would be 28 km, or 0.009% of the total surface of the United States.
. He argues that such concerns are vastly exaggerated in the public perception, as alcohol and coffee are the foods that create by far the greatest risk of cancer, as opposed to vegetables that have been sprayed with pesticides. Furthermore, if pesticides were not used on fruit and vegetables, their cost would rise, and consequently their consumption would go down, which would cause cancer rates to increase. He goes on to criticize the fear of a vertiginous decline in biodiversity
, proposing that 0.7% of species have gone extinct in the last 50 years (as compared to a maximum of 50%, as claimed by some biologists). While Lomborg admits that extinctions are a problem, he asserts that they are not the catastrophe claimed by some, and have little effect on human prosperity.
Lomborg's most contentious assertion, however, involves global warming
. From the outset, Lomborg "accepts the reality of man-made global warming" though he refers to a number of uncertainties in the computer simulations of climate change and some aspects of data collection. His main contention involves not the science of global warming but the politics and the policy response to scientific findings. Lomborg points out that, given the amount of greenhouse gas reduction required to combat global warming, the current Kyoto protocol
is grossly insufficient. He goes on to argue that the economic costs of restrictions aimed at reversing or even slowing global warming are impractically high compared to an alternative of international coordination. Moreover, he asserts that the cost of combating global warming would be disproportionately shouldered by poor developing countries. Since the Kyoto agreement places unrealistic limits on economic activities, the countries that suffer from pollution and poverty due to the state of their economies will be condemned, Lomborg states, to a perpetually undeveloped economic state.
Lomborg proposes that the importance of global warming in terms of policy priority may be low compared to other policy issues such as fighting poverty, disease and aiding poor countries, which has direct and more immediate impact both in terms of welfare and the environment. He therefore suggests that a global cost-benefit analysis be undertaken before deciding on future measures. The Copenhagen Consensus
that Lomborg later organized concluded that combating global warming does have a benefit but its priority compared to other issues is "poor" (ranked 13th) and three projects addressing climate change (optimal carbon tax, the Kyoto protocol and value-at-risk carbon tax), are the least cost-efficient of its proposals.
), anticipating the level of controversy a book like The Skeptical Environmentalist would likely provoke, took extra care with the book's peer-review process. Instead of choosing candidates from the usual list of social science referees, Cambridge University Press chose from a list provided by their environmental science publishing program. Four were chosen: a climate
scientist, an expert in biodiversity
and sustainable
development, a specialist on the economics of climate change (whose credentials include reviewing publications for the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)) and a "pure" economist. All four members of Cambridge's initial review panel agreed that the book should be published.
While criticism of the book was to be expected, the publisher was apparently surprised by the pressure brought against it to not publish The Skeptical Environmentalist. The complaints of some critics included demands that Cambridge convene a special panel to review the book in order to identify errors (despite existing pre-publication peer review
), that Cambridge transfer their publishing rights to a "non-scholarly publishing house" and that they review their own policies to prevent publication of any book described as "essentially a political tract" in the future.
In the article, entitled "Peer review, politics and pluralism", Dr. Harrison noted that "many of the critical reviews of The Skeptical Environmentalist went beyond the usual unpicking of a thesis and concentrated instead on the role of the publisher in publishing the book at all. The post tray and e-mail inbox of editors and senior managers at the press bore witness to a concerted campaign to persuade Cambridge to renounce the book." He went on to describe complaints from environmentalists
who feared the book would be "abused by corporate interests". Cambridge University Press felt it necessary to issue a formal, written statement, in order to "explain the editorial decisions that led not just to publishing the book but also to Cambridge's resistance to concerted pressure to withdraw it from the market." With these complaints and the publication of a Scientific American
issue regarding the book (described below), Cambridge stated, in response to those who claimed the book lacked peer-review credentials, "it would be quite wrong to abandon an author who had satisfied the requirements of our peer-review system."
Cambridge took the additional step of inviting submissions of publishing proposals for books which offered an opposing argument to Lomborg's but noted that they had, to the best of Chris Harrison's knowledge, seen no attempt by any of the critics to submit such a proposal. This is seen by some to suggest that criticism of the book was political rather than academic. Subsequent to Cambridge's unequivocal assertion that The Skeptical Environmentalist had been subject to peer-review, Harrison noted that
Cambridge University Press maintained their position and the book was published.
contained, under the heading "Misleading Math about the Earth", a set of essays by several scientists, which claim that Lomborg and The Skeptical Environmentalist misrepresent both scientific evidence and scientific opinion. The magazine then refused Lomborg's request to print a lengthy point-by-point rebuttal in his own defence, on the grounds that the 32 pages would have taken a disproportionate share of the month's installment. Scientific American allowed Lomborg a one-page defense in the May 2002 edition, and then attempted to remove Lomborg's publication of his complete response online, citing a copyright violation. After receiving much criticism, the magazine published his complete rebuttal on its website, along with the counter rebuttals of John Rennie
and John P. Holdren
.
Nature
also published a harsh review of Lomborg's book, in which Stuart Pimm
of the Center for Environmental Research and Conservation
at Columbia University
and Jeff Harvey
of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology wrote: "the text employs the strategy of those who, for example, argue that gay men aren't dying of AIDS, that Jews weren't singled out by the Nazis for extermination, and so on." Lomborg has also been criticized for using straw man
arguments, with charges that his Litany of environmental doom-mongering does not accurately represent the mainstream views of the contemporary green movement
.
The Union of Concerned Scientists
(UCS), a non-profit scientific advocacy group, referred to their own set of commissioned rebuttals and summarized thus:
The "separately written expert reviews" further detail the various expert opinions. Peter Gleick
's assessment, for example, states:
Jerry Mahlman
's appraisal of the chapter he was asked to evaluate, states:
David Pimentel, who was repeatedly criticized in the book, also wrote a critical review.
and hip book author eminently media-ready.
One critical article, "The Skeptical Environmentalist: A Case Study in the Manufacture of News", attributes this media success to its initial, influential supporters:
The media was criticized for the biased selection of reviewers and not informing readers of reviewers' background. Richard C. Bell, writing for Worldwatch noted that the Wall Street Journal, "instead of seeking scientists with a critical perspective," like many publications "put out reviews by people who were closely associated with Lomborg", with the Journal soliciting a review from the Competitive Enterprise Institute's Ronald Bailey, someone "who had earlier written a book called The True State of the World, from which much of Lomborg's claims were taken." Bell also criticized the Washington Post, whose Sunday Book World assigned the book review to Dennis Dutton, identified as "a professor of philosophy who lectures on the dangers of pseudoscience at the science faculties of the University of Canterbury in New Zealand", and as the editor of the web site Arts and Letters Daily. Bell noted that:
column from August 23, 2001, veteran BBC environmental correspondent Alex Kirby wrote:
Kirby's first concern was not with the extensive research and statistical analysis, but the conclusions drawn from them:
On September 5, 2001, at a Lomborg book reading in England, British environmentalist author Mark Lynas
threw a cream pie in Lomborg's face. In a September 9, 2001, article, "Why I pied Lomborg", Lynas stated:
The December 12, 2001 issue of Grist
, a popular online environmental magazine, devoted an issue to The Skeptical Environmentalist, with a series of essays from various scientists challenging individual sections. A separate article examining the book's overall approach took issue with the framing of Lomborg's conclusions:
Addressing the apparent difficulty of scientists opposing The Skeptical Environmentalist in criticizing the book strictly on the basis of statistics and challenging the conclusions about areas of environmental sciences that were drawn from them, Lynas contends:
dominated media coverage for several months.
Influential UK newsweekly The Economist
weighed in at the start with heavy support, publishing an advance essay by Lomborg in which he detailed his Litany, and following up with a highly favorable review and supportive coverage. It stated that "This is one of the most valuable books on public policy—not merely environmental policy— to have been written for the intelligent general reader in the past ten years...The Skeptical Environmentalist is a triumph."
Among the general media, the New York Times stated that "The primary target of the book, a substantial work of analysis with almost 3,000 footnotes, are statements made by environmental organizations like the Worldwatch Institute, the World Wildlife Fund and Greenpeace." The Wall Street Journal deemed Lomborg's work "a superbly documented and readable book.". A Washington Post review claimed that "Bjørn Lomborg's good news about the environment is bad news for Green ideologues. His richly informative, lucid book is now the place from which environmental policy decisions must be argued. In fact, The Skeptical Environmentalist is the most significant work on the environment since the appearance of its polar opposite, Rachel Carson's Silent Spring
, in 1962. It's a magnificent achievement." Rolling Stone
wrote that "Lomborg pulls off the remarkable feat of welding the techno-optimism of the Internet age with a lefty's concern for the fate of the planet."
Many of the supporters of the book argued that ostensibly scientific criticisms of the book are in fact political or ideological. Moreover, many have claimed that critics fail to engage with the most controversial proposition of the book, that even if one accept the scientific implication of global warming, the Kyoto protocol is not an appropriate policy response and that environmental policy should be assessed on the basis of cost-benefit analysis.
In March 2003 the New York Law School Law Review published an examination of the critical reviews of Skeptical Environmentalist from the Scientific American, Nature and Science magazines by Professor of Law David Shoenbrod and then Senior Law Student Christi Wilson of New York Law School. The authors take the perspective of a court faced with an argument against hearing an expert witness in order to evaluate whether Lomborg was credible as an expert, and whether his testimony is valid to his expertise. They classify the types of criticisms leveled at Lomborg and his arguments, and proceed to evaluate each of the reasons given for disqualifying Lomborg. They conclude that a court should accept Lomborg as a credible expert in the field of statistics, and that his testimony was appropriately restricted to his area of expertise. Of course, Professor Shoenbrod and Wilson note, Mr. Lomborg's factual conclusions may not be correct, nor his policy proposals effective, but his criticisms should be addressed, not merely dismissed out of hand.
The Union of Concerned Scientists
and the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty
raised concern about the responses of certain sections of the scientific community to a peer reviewed book published under the category of environmental economics. The groups worried that the receptions to Lomborg were a politicization of science by scientists. This unease was reflected in the involvement of the Union of Concerned Scientists and Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty in "When scientists politicize science: making sense of controversy over The Skeptical Environmentalist", where Roger A. Pielke argued:
In "Green with Ideology - The hidden agenda behind the "scientific" attacks on Bjørn Lomborg’s controversial book, The Skeptical Environmentalist", Ronald Bailey
stated that "The bitter anti-Lomborg campaign reveals the hidden crisis of what we might call ideological environmentalism." He further wrote:
Jeremy Clarkson
has also shown support for the book, believing it to be a voice of reason which he frequently mentions it in his Sunday Times columns.
, which he initiated. Lomborg's second book, Global Crises, Global Solutions
, published in 2004 by Cambridge University Press, is based on that academic project, which comprises eight economists, including four Nobel Prize in Economics winners. Like Skeptical Environmentalist, Lomborg's second book addresses global problems broadly, using data analysis and the interpretations of respected economists
.
(DCSD), a body under Denmark's Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation
. The charges claimed that The Skeptical Environmentalist contained deliberately misleading data and flawed conclusions. Due to the similarity of the accusations, the DCSD decided to proceed with the three cases under one investigation.
The DCSD cited The Skeptical Environmentalist for:
On December 17, 2003, the Ministry found that the DCSD had made a number of procedural errors, including:
The Ministry remitted the case to the DCSD. In doing so the Ministry indicated that it regarded the DCSD's previous findings of scientific dishonesty in regard to the book as invalid. The Ministry also instructed the DCSD to consider reinvestigation of Lomborg. On March 12, 2004, the Committee formally decided not to act further on the complaints, reasoning that renewed scrutiny would, in all likelihood, result in the same conclusion.
among Danish academics from 308 scientists, many from the social sciences, who criticised the DCSD's investigative methods.
Another group of Danish scientists collected signatures in support of the DCSD. The 640 signatures in this second petition came almost exclusively from the medical and natural science
s, and included Nobel laureate
in Chemistry Jens Christian Skou
, former university rector
Kjeld Møllgård, and professor Poul Harremoës from the Technical University of Denmark
.
A Dutch think tank
, Heidelberg Appeal
, published a report in which it claimed 25 out of 27 accusations against Lomborg to be unsubstantiated or not pertinent.
A group of related scientists also published an article in 2005 in the Journal of Information Ethics, in which they concluded that most criticism against Lomborg was unjustified, and that the scientific community had misused their authority to suppress the author.
Fog has established a curated catalogue of criticisms against Lomborg, which includes a section for each page of every Skeptical Environmentalist chapter. Fog enumerates and details what he believes to be flaws and errors in Lomborg's work. He explicitly indicates if particular mistakes may have been made deliberately by Lomborg, in order to mislead. According to Fog, since none of his denunciations of Lomborg's work have been proven false, the suspicion that Lomborg has misled deliberately is maintained. Lomborg has written a full text published online as Godehetens Pris (Danish) that goes through the main allegations put forward by Fog and others.
The Atlantic hailed says the film as
Bjørn Lomborg
Bjørn Lomborg is a Danish author, academic, and environmental writer. He is an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Centre and a former director of the Environmental Assessment Institute in Copenhagen...
, controversial for its claims that overpopulation
Overpopulation
Overpopulation is a condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth...
, declining energy
Energy
In physics, energy is an indirectly observed quantity. It is often understood as the ability a physical system has to do work on other physical systems...
resources, deforestation
Deforestation
Deforestation is the removal of a forest or stand of trees where the land is thereafter converted to a nonforest use. Examples of deforestation include conversion of forestland to farms, ranches, or urban use....
, species loss
Extinction
In biology and ecology, extinction is the end of an organism or of a group of organisms , normally a species. The moment of extinction is generally considered to be the death of the last individual of the species, although the capacity to breed and recover may have been lost before this point...
, water shortages
Water crisis
Water crisis is a general term used to describe a situation where the available water within a region is less than the region's demand. The term has been used to describe the availability of potable water in a variety of regions by the United Nations and other world organizations...
, certain aspects of global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
, and an assortment of other global environmental issues are unsupported by analysis of the relevant data. It was first published
Publishing
Publishing is the process of production and dissemination of literature or information—the activity of making information available to the general public...
in Danish
Danish language
Danish is a North Germanic language spoken by around six million people, principally in the country of Denmark. It is also spoken by 50,000 Germans of Danish ethnicity in the northern parts of Schleswig-Holstein, Germany, where it holds the status of minority language...
in 1998, while the English
English language
English is a West Germanic language that arose in the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms of England and spread into what was to become south-east Scotland under the influence of the Anglian medieval kingdom of Northumbria...
edition was published as a work in environmental economics
Environmental economics
Environmental economics is a subfield of economics concerned with environmental issues. Quoting from the National Bureau of Economic Research Environmental Economics program:...
by Cambridge University Press
Cambridge University Press
Cambridge University Press is the publishing business of the University of Cambridge. Granted letters patent by Henry VIII in 1534, it is the world's oldest publishing house, and the second largest university press in the world...
in 2001.
Due to the scope of the project, comprising the range of topics addressed, the diversity of data and sources employed, and the many types of conclusions and comments advanced, The Skeptical Environmentalist does not fit easily into a particular scientific discipline or methodology. Although published by the social sciences division of Cambridge University Press, the findings and conclusions were widely challenged on the basis of natural science
Natural science
The natural sciences are branches of science that seek to elucidate the rules that govern the natural world by using empirical and scientific methods...
. This interpretation of The Skeptical Environmentalist as a work of environmental science
Environmental science
Environmental science is an interdisciplinary academic field that integrates physical and biological sciences, to the study of the environment, and the solution of environmental problems...
generated much of the controversy and debate that surrounded the book.
The author
Copenhagen Consensus
Copenhagen Consensus is a project that seeks to establish priorities for advancing global welfare using methodologies based on the theory of welfare economics. It was conceived and organized by Bjørn Lomborg, the author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and the then director of the Danish...
and Adjunct Professor at the Copenhagen Business School
Copenhagen Business School
Copenhagen Business School, also known as CBS, is situated in Copenhagen, Denmark. With more than 17,000 students and 1,300 staff members, CBS is also one of the largest business schools in Europe. CBS offers a wide range of business-oriented university programmes and a research environment...
, Bjørn Lomborg was an Associate Professor of Political Science
Political science
Political Science is a social science discipline concerned with the study of the state, government and politics. Aristotle defined it as the study of the state. It deals extensively with the theory and practice of politics, and the analysis of political systems and political behavior...
at the University of Aarhus
University of Aarhus
Aarhus University , located in the city of Aarhus, Denmark, is Denmark's second oldest and second largest university...
.
Some critics focus on his lack of training or professional experience in the environmental sciences or economics
Economics
Economics is the social science that analyzes the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The term economics comes from the Ancient Greek from + , hence "rules of the house"...
. Supporters argue his research is an appropriate application of his expertise in cost-benefit analysis
Cost-benefit analysis
Cost–benefit analysis , sometimes called benefit–cost analysis , is a systematic process for calculating and comparing benefits and costs of a project for two purposes: to determine if it is a sound investment , to see how it compares with alternate projects...
, a standard analytical tool in policy assessment. His advocates further note that many of the scientists and environmentalists who criticized the book are not themselves environmental policy experts or experienced in cost-benefit research.
In numerous interviews, Lomborg ascribed his motivation for writing The Skeptical Environmentalist to his personal convictions, making clear that he was a pro-environmentalist and Greenpeace
Greenpeace
Greenpeace is a non-governmental environmental organization with offices in over forty countries and with an international coordinating body in Amsterdam, The Netherlands...
supporter. He has stated that he began his research as an attempt to counter what he saw as anti-ecological
Ecology
Ecology is the scientific study of the relations that living organisms have with respect to each other and their natural environment. Variables of interest to ecologists include the composition, distribution, amount , number, and changing states of organisms within and among ecosystems...
arguments by Julian Lincoln Simon
Julian Lincoln Simon
Julian Lincoln Simon was a professor of business administration at the University of Maryland and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute at the time of his death, after previously serving as a longtime business professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Simon wrote many books and...
in an article in Wired, but changed his mind after starting to analyze data. Lomborg describes the views he attributes to environmental campaigners as the "Litany
Litany
A litany, in Christian worship and some forms of Jewish worship, is a form of prayer used in services and processions, and consisting of a number of petitions...
", which he at one time claims to have affirmed, but purports to correct in his work.
The Real State of the World
The Skeptical Environmentalists subtitle refers to the State of the World report, published annually since 1984 by the Worldwatch InstituteWorldwatch Institute
The Worldwatch Institute is a globally focused environmental research organization based in Washington, D.C. Worldwatch was named as one of the top ten sustainable development research organizations by Globescan Survey of Sustainability Experts.-Mission:...
. Lomborg designated the report "one of the best-researched and academically most ambitious environmental policy publications," but criticized it for using short-term trends to predict disastrous consequences, in cases where long-term trends would not support the same conclusions.
In establishing its arguments, The Skeptical Environmentalist examined a wide range of issues in the general area of environmental studies, including environmental economics and science, and came to an equally broad set of conclusions and recommendations. Lomborg's work directly challenged popular examples of green concerns by interpreting data from some 3,000 assembled sources. The author suggested that environmentalists diverted potentially beneficial resources to less deserving environmental issues in ways that were economically damaging. Much of the book's methodology
Methodology
Methodology is generally a guideline for solving a problem, with specificcomponents such as phases, tasks, methods, techniques and tools . It can be defined also as follows:...
and integrity have been subject to criticism which argue that Lomborg distorted the fields of research he covers. Support for the book was staunch as well.
Methodology
The general analytical approach employed by Lomborg is based on cost-benefit analyses as employed in economics, social science, and the formulation and assessment of government policy. Much of Lomborg's examination of his Litany is based on statistical data analysis, therefore his work may be considered a work of that nature. Since it examines the costs and benefits of its many topics, it could be considered a work in economics, as categorized by its publisher. However, The Skeptical Environmentalist is methodologically eclectic and cross-disciplinary, combining interpretation of data with assessments of the media and human behavior, evaluations of scientific theories, and other approaches, to arrive at its various conclusions.In arriving at the final work, Lomborg has used a similar approach in each of his work's main areas and subtopics. He progresses from the general to the specific, starting with a broad concern, such as pollution
Pollution
Pollution is the introduction of contaminants into a natural environment that causes instability, disorder, harm or discomfort to the ecosystem i.e. physical systems or living organisms. Pollution can take the form of chemical substances or energy, such as noise, heat or light...
or energy, dividing it into subtopics (e.g. air pollution
Air pollution
Air pollution is the introduction of chemicals, particulate matter, or biological materials that cause harm or discomfort to humans or other living organisms, or cause damage to the natural environment or built environment, into the atmosphere....
; fossil fuel depletion
Peak oil
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. This concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, projected reserves and the combined production rate of a field...
), and then identifying one or more widely held fears and their source (e.g. our air is growing increasingly toxic, by X measure, according to Y). From there, Lomborg chooses data that he considers to be the most reliable and reasonable available. He then analyzes that data to prove or disprove his selected proposition. In every case, his calculations find that the claim is not substantiated, and is either an exaggeration, or a completely reversed portrayal of an improving situation, rather than a deteriorating one. Having established what he calls "the true state of the world", for each topic and subtopic, Lomborg examines a variety of theories, technologies, implementation strategies and costs, and suggests alternative ways to improve not-so-dire situations, or advance in other areas not currently considered as pressing.
The Litany and Lomborg's findings
"The Litany" comprises very diverse areas where, Lomborg claims, overly pessimistic claims are made and bad policies are implemented as a result. He cites accepted mainstream sources, like the United StatesUnited States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
government, United Nations
United Nations
The United Nations is an international organization whose stated aims are facilitating cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights, and achievement of world peace...
agencies and others, preferring global long-term data over regional and short-term statistics.
The Skeptical Environmentalist is arranged around four major themes:
- Human prosperity from an economic and demographic point of view
- Human prosperity from an ecological point of view
- Pollution as a threat to human prosperity
- Future threats to human prosperity
Lomborg's main argument is that vast majority of environmental problems such as pollution, water shortages, deforestation, and species loss as well as population growth, hunger, and AIDS, are area-specific and highly correlated with poverty. Therefore, challenges to human prosperity are essentially logistical matters, and can be solved largely through economic and social development. Concerning problems that are more pressing at the global level, such as the depletion of fossil fuels and global warming, Lomborg argues that these issues are often overstated and that recommended policies are often inappropriate if assessed against alternatives.
Human prosperity from an economic and demographic point of view
Lomborg analyzes three major themes: life expectancyLife expectancy
Life expectancy is the expected number of years of life remaining at a given age. It is denoted by ex, which means the average number of subsequent years of life for someone now aged x, according to a particular mortality experience...
, food and hunger
Hunger
Hunger is the most commonly used term to describe the social condition of people who frequently experience the physical sensation of desiring food.-Malnutrition, famine, starvation:...
, and prosperity, finding that life expectancy and health levels have dramatically improved over the past centuries, even though several regions of the world remain threatened, in particular by AIDS
AIDS
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome is a disease of the human immune system caused by the human immunodeficiency virus...
. He dismisses Thomas Malthus
Thomas Malthus
The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus FRS was an English scholar, influential in political economy and demography. Malthus popularized the economic theory of rent....
' theory that increases in the world's population lead to widespread hunger. On the contrary, Lomborg claims that food is widespread, and humanity's daily intake of calories is increasing, and will continue to rise until hunger's eradication, thanks to technological improvements in agriculture. However, Lomborg notes that Africa
Africa
Africa is the world's second largest and second most populous continent, after Asia. At about 30.2 million km² including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of the Earth's total surface area and 20.4% of the total land area...
in particular still produces too little sustenance, an effect he attributes to the continent's dismal economic and political systems. Concerning prosperity, Lomborg argues that wealth, as measured by per capita GDP, should not be a lone judging criterion. He points to improvements in education, safety, leisure, and ever more widespread access to consumer goods as signs that prosperity is increasing on most parts of the Earth.
Human prosperity from an ecological point of view
In his section on prosperity from an ecological perspective, Lomborg looks at the world's natural resources and draws a conclusion in stark contrast to that of the well known report Limits to Growth. First, he analyzes food once more, this time from an ecological stance, and again claims that most food products are not threatened by human growth. An exception, however, is fish, which continues to be depleted. As a partial solution, Lomborg presents fish farms, which cause a less disruptive impact on the world's oceans. Next, Lomborg looks at forests. He finds no indication of widespread deforestationDeforestation
Deforestation is the removal of a forest or stand of trees where the land is thereafter converted to a nonforest use. Examples of deforestation include conversion of forestland to farms, ranches, or urban use....
, and notes that even the Amazon still retains more than 80% of its 1978 tree cover. Lomborg points out that deforestation is linked to poverty and poor economic conditions in the concerned countries, and proposes higher economic growth to tackle the loss of forests.
Concerning energy, Lomborg asserts that oil is not being depleted as fast as is claimed, and that improvements of technology will provide people with fossil fuels for years to come. The author further asserts that many alternatives already exist, and that with time they will replace fossil fuels as an energy source. Concerning other resources, such as metals, Lomborg suggests that based on their price history they are not in short supply. Examining the challenge of collecting sufficient amounts of water, Lomborg says that wars will probably not erupt over water because fighting such wars is not cost-effective (one week of war with the Palestinians, for instance, would cost Israel
Israel
The State of Israel is a parliamentary republic located in the Middle East, along the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea...
more than five desalination plants, according to an Israeli officer). Lomborg states that the main problem is organizational, and emphasizes the need for better water management, as water is distributed unequally around the world.
Pollution as a threat to human prosperity
Lomborg considers pollution from different angles. He notes that air pollution in wealthy nations has steadily decreased in recent decades. He finds that air pollution levels are highly linked to economic development, with moderately developed countries polluting most. Again, Lomborg argues that faster growth in emerging countries would help them reduce their air pollution levels. Lomborg suggests that devoting resources to reduce the levels of specific air pollutants would provide the greatest health benefits and save the largest number of lives (per amount of money spent), continuing an already decades-long improvement in air quality in most developed countries. Concerning water pollutionWater pollution
Water pollution is the contamination of water bodies . Water pollution occurs when pollutants are discharged directly or indirectly into water bodies without adequate treatment to remove harmful compounds....
, Lomborg notes again that it is connected with economic progress. He also notes that water pollution in major Western rivers deceased rapidly after the use of sewage systems became widespread. Concerning waste
Waste
Waste is unwanted or useless materials. In biology, waste is any of the many unwanted substances or toxins that are expelled from living organisms, metabolic waste; such as urea, sweat or feces. Litter is waste which has been disposed of improperly...
, Lomborg notes once again that fears are overblown, as the entire waste produced by the United States of America in the 21st century could fit into a square whose side would be 28 km, or 0.009% of the total surface of the United States.
Future threats to human prosperity
In his section regarding future threats to prosperity, Lomborg proposes his main recommendation and assessment that pursuant to cost-benefit analysis, the environmental threats to human prosperity are overstated and much of policy response is misguided. As an example, Lomborg cites worries about pesticides and their link to cancerCancer
Cancer , known medically as a malignant neoplasm, is a large group of different diseases, all involving unregulated cell growth. In cancer, cells divide and grow uncontrollably, forming malignant tumors, and invade nearby parts of the body. The cancer may also spread to more distant parts of the...
. He argues that such concerns are vastly exaggerated in the public perception, as alcohol and coffee are the foods that create by far the greatest risk of cancer, as opposed to vegetables that have been sprayed with pesticides. Furthermore, if pesticides were not used on fruit and vegetables, their cost would rise, and consequently their consumption would go down, which would cause cancer rates to increase. He goes on to criticize the fear of a vertiginous decline in biodiversity
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is the degree of variation of life forms within a given ecosystem, biome, or an entire planet. Biodiversity is a measure of the health of ecosystems. Biodiversity is in part a function of climate. In terrestrial habitats, tropical regions are typically rich whereas polar regions...
, proposing that 0.7% of species have gone extinct in the last 50 years (as compared to a maximum of 50%, as claimed by some biologists). While Lomborg admits that extinctions are a problem, he asserts that they are not the catastrophe claimed by some, and have little effect on human prosperity.
Lomborg's most contentious assertion, however, involves global warming
Global warming
Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
. From the outset, Lomborg "accepts the reality of man-made global warming" though he refers to a number of uncertainties in the computer simulations of climate change and some aspects of data collection. His main contention involves not the science of global warming but the politics and the policy response to scientific findings. Lomborg points out that, given the amount of greenhouse gas reduction required to combat global warming, the current Kyoto protocol
Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change , aimed at fighting global warming...
is grossly insufficient. He goes on to argue that the economic costs of restrictions aimed at reversing or even slowing global warming are impractically high compared to an alternative of international coordination. Moreover, he asserts that the cost of combating global warming would be disproportionately shouldered by poor developing countries. Since the Kyoto agreement places unrealistic limits on economic activities, the countries that suffer from pollution and poverty due to the state of their economies will be condemned, Lomborg states, to a perpetually undeveloped economic state.
Lomborg proposes that the importance of global warming in terms of policy priority may be low compared to other policy issues such as fighting poverty, disease and aiding poor countries, which has direct and more immediate impact both in terms of welfare and the environment. He therefore suggests that a global cost-benefit analysis be undertaken before deciding on future measures. The Copenhagen Consensus
Copenhagen Consensus
Copenhagen Consensus is a project that seeks to establish priorities for advancing global welfare using methodologies based on the theory of welfare economics. It was conceived and organized by Bjørn Lomborg, the author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and the then director of the Danish...
that Lomborg later organized concluded that combating global warming does have a benefit but its priority compared to other issues is "poor" (ranked 13th) and three projects addressing climate change (optimal carbon tax, the Kyoto protocol and value-at-risk carbon tax), are the least cost-efficient of its proposals.
Conclusions
Lomborg concludes his book by once again reviewing the Litany, and noting that the real state of the world is much better than the Litany claims. According to Lomborg, this discrepancy poses a problem, as it focuses public attention on relatively unimportant issues, while ignoring those that are paramount. In the worst case, The Skeptical Environmentalist argues, the global community is pressured to adopt inappropriate policies which have adverse effects on humanity, wasting resources that could be put to better use in aiding poor countries or fighting diseases such as AIDS. Lomborg thus urges us to look at what he calls the true problems of the world, since solving those will also solve the Litany.Reaction
The Skeptical Environmentalist was controversial even before its English-language release, with anti-publication efforts launched against Cambridge University Press. Once in the public arena, the book elicited extreme reactions in scientific circles and in the mainstream media. Opinion was largely polarized. Environmental groups were generally critical.Anti-publication pressures
Dr. Chris Harrison (Publishing Director of social science publishing for Cambridge University PressCambridge University Press
Cambridge University Press is the publishing business of the University of Cambridge. Granted letters patent by Henry VIII in 1534, it is the world's oldest publishing house, and the second largest university press in the world...
), anticipating the level of controversy a book like The Skeptical Environmentalist would likely provoke, took extra care with the book's peer-review process. Instead of choosing candidates from the usual list of social science referees, Cambridge University Press chose from a list provided by their environmental science publishing program. Four were chosen: a climate
Climate
Climate encompasses the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and other meteorological elemental measurements in a given region over long periods...
scientist, an expert in biodiversity
Biodiversity
Biodiversity is the degree of variation of life forms within a given ecosystem, biome, or an entire planet. Biodiversity is a measure of the health of ecosystems. Biodiversity is in part a function of climate. In terrestrial habitats, tropical regions are typically rich whereas polar regions...
and sustainable
Sustainability
Sustainability is the capacity to endure. For humans, sustainability is the long-term maintenance of well being, which has environmental, economic, and social dimensions, and encompasses the concept of union, an interdependent relationship and mutual responsible position with all living and non...
development, a specialist on the economics of climate change (whose credentials include reviewing publications for the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific intergovernmental body which provides comprehensive assessments of current scientific, technical and socio-economic information worldwide about the risk of climate change caused by human activity, its potential environmental and...
(IPCC)) and a "pure" economist. All four members of Cambridge's initial review panel agreed that the book should be published.
While criticism of the book was to be expected, the publisher was apparently surprised by the pressure brought against it to not publish The Skeptical Environmentalist. The complaints of some critics included demands that Cambridge convene a special panel to review the book in order to identify errors (despite existing pre-publication peer review
Peer review
Peer review is a process of self-regulation by a profession or a process of evaluation involving qualified individuals within the relevant field. Peer review methods are employed to maintain standards, improve performance and provide credibility...
), that Cambridge transfer their publishing rights to a "non-scholarly publishing house" and that they review their own policies to prevent publication of any book described as "essentially a political tract" in the future.
In the article, entitled "Peer review, politics and pluralism", Dr. Harrison noted that "many of the critical reviews of The Skeptical Environmentalist went beyond the usual unpicking of a thesis and concentrated instead on the role of the publisher in publishing the book at all. The post tray and e-mail inbox of editors and senior managers at the press bore witness to a concerted campaign to persuade Cambridge to renounce the book." He went on to describe complaints from environmentalists
Environmentalist
An environmentalist broadly supports the goals of the environmental movement, "a political and ethical movement that seeks to improve and protect the quality of the natural environment through changes to environmentally harmful human activities"...
who feared the book would be "abused by corporate interests". Cambridge University Press felt it necessary to issue a formal, written statement, in order to "explain the editorial decisions that led not just to publishing the book but also to Cambridge's resistance to concerted pressure to withdraw it from the market." With these complaints and the publication of a Scientific American
Scientific American
Scientific American is a popular science magazine. It is notable for its long history of presenting science monthly to an educated but not necessarily scientific public, through its careful attention to the clarity of its text as well as the quality of its specially commissioned color graphics...
issue regarding the book (described below), Cambridge stated, in response to those who claimed the book lacked peer-review credentials, "it would be quite wrong to abandon an author who had satisfied the requirements of our peer-review system."
Cambridge took the additional step of inviting submissions of publishing proposals for books which offered an opposing argument to Lomborg's but noted that they had, to the best of Chris Harrison's knowledge, seen no attempt by any of the critics to submit such a proposal. This is seen by some to suggest that criticism of the book was political rather than academic. Subsequent to Cambridge's unequivocal assertion that The Skeptical Environmentalist had been subject to peer-review, Harrison noted that
Cambridge University Press maintained their position and the book was published.
Criticism
Critics approached The Skeptical Environmentalist from several angles. Some scientists attacked the data, the analyses and conclusions, while others pointed to the "media" as being responsible for creating undue attention. One group of individuals simply found Lomborg's findings unrealistic, while another discovered that the book's findings largely matched their own.Criticism of the material and methods
The January 2002 issue of Scientific AmericanScientific American
Scientific American is a popular science magazine. It is notable for its long history of presenting science monthly to an educated but not necessarily scientific public, through its careful attention to the clarity of its text as well as the quality of its specially commissioned color graphics...
contained, under the heading "Misleading Math about the Earth", a set of essays by several scientists, which claim that Lomborg and The Skeptical Environmentalist misrepresent both scientific evidence and scientific opinion. The magazine then refused Lomborg's request to print a lengthy point-by-point rebuttal in his own defence, on the grounds that the 32 pages would have taken a disproportionate share of the month's installment. Scientific American allowed Lomborg a one-page defense in the May 2002 edition, and then attempted to remove Lomborg's publication of his complete response online, citing a copyright violation. After receiving much criticism, the magazine published his complete rebuttal on its website, along with the counter rebuttals of John Rennie
John Rennie (editor)
John Rennie was the seventh editor in chief of Scientific American magazine. He holds a bachelors of science degree in biology from Yale University...
and John P. Holdren
John Holdren
John Paul Holdren is advisor to President Barack Obama for Science and Technology, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology...
.
Nature
Nature (journal)
Nature, first published on 4 November 1869, is ranked the world's most cited interdisciplinary scientific journal by the Science Edition of the 2010 Journal Citation Reports...
also published a harsh review of Lomborg's book, in which Stuart Pimm
Stuart Pimm
Stuart Pimm is an American-British biologist and theoretical ecologist specializing in scientific research of biodiversity and conservation biology.- Professional career :...
of the Center for Environmental Research and Conservation
Center for Environmental Research and Conservation
The Center for Environmental Research and Conservation builds environmental leadership and emphasizes the essential role of the natural world in sustainable development...
at Columbia University
Columbia University
Columbia University in the City of New York is a private, Ivy League university in Manhattan, New York City. Columbia is the oldest institution of higher learning in the state of New York, the fifth oldest in the United States, and one of the country's nine Colonial Colleges founded before the...
and Jeff Harvey
Jeff Harvey
Jeff Harvey is a Senior Scientist in the Department of Multitrophic Interactions at the , and formerly an associate editor of Nature.Harvey specializes in research concerning:...
of the Netherlands Institute of Ecology wrote: "the text employs the strategy of those who, for example, argue that gay men aren't dying of AIDS, that Jews weren't singled out by the Nazis for extermination, and so on." Lomborg has also been criticized for using straw man
Straw man
A straw man is a component of an argument and is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent's position, twisting his words or by means of [false] assumptions...
arguments, with charges that his Litany of environmental doom-mongering does not accurately represent the mainstream views of the contemporary green movement
Green Movement
The Green Movement refers to a series of actions after the 2009 Iranian presidential election, in which protesters demanded the removal of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from office...
.
The Union of Concerned Scientists
Union of Concerned Scientists
The Union of Concerned Scientists is a nonprofit science advocacy group based in the United States. The UCS membership includes many private citizens in addition to professional scientists. James J...
(UCS), a non-profit scientific advocacy group, referred to their own set of commissioned rebuttals and summarized thus:
- These separately-written expert reviews unequivocally demonstrate that on closer inspection, Lomborg's book is seriously flawed and fails to meet basic standards of credible scientific analysis. The authors note how Lomborg consistently misuses, misrepresents or misinterprets data to greatly underestimate rates of species extinction, ignore evidence that billions of people lack access to clean water and sanitation, and minimize the extent and impacts of global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels and other human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases. Time and again, these experts find that Lomborg's assertions and analyses are marred by flawed logic, inappropriate use of statistics and hidden value judgments. He uncritically and selectively cites literature—often not peer-reviewed—that supports his assertions, while ignoring or misinterpreting scientific evidence that does not. His consistently flawed use of scientific data is, in Peter Gleick's words "unexpected and disturbing in a statistician".
The "separately written expert reviews" further detail the various expert opinions. Peter Gleick
Peter Gleick
Dr. Peter H. Gleick is a scientist working on issues related to the environment, economic development, and international security, with a focus on global freshwater challenges. He works at the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, which he co-founded in 1987. In 2003 he was awarded a MacArthur...
's assessment, for example, states:
- There is nothing original or unique in Lomborg's book. Many of his criticisms have appeared in... previous works—and even in the work of environmental scientists themselves. What is new, perhaps, is the scope and variety of the errors he makes.
Jerry Mahlman
Jerry Mahlman
-Biography:Mahlman received his undergraduate degree from Chadron State College in 1962 and his Ph.D. from Colorado State University in 1967. From 1970 until 2000 he worked at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at Princeton, serving as...
's appraisal of the chapter he was asked to evaluate, states:
- I found some aspects of this chapter to be interesting, challenging, and logical. For example, the author's characterizations of the degree of difficulty in actually doing something meaningful about climate change through mitigation and coping/adaptation are perceptive and valuable. In principle, such characterizations could provide a foundation for more meaningful policy planning on this difficult problem. Unfortunately, the author's lack of rigor and consistency on these larger issues is likely to negate any real respect for his insights.
David Pimentel, who was repeatedly criticized in the book, also wrote a critical review.
Criticism of media handling
Another angle of criticism focused as much on the media and Lomborg himself as it did on the book, charging that The Skeptical Environmentalists prominence was due to the intense media coverage: had not the coverage been so great, neither would its impact. The controversial statements the book presents, and the fact that Lomborg offered a catchy public image made the package of contrarianContrarian
In finance, a contrarian is one who attempts to profit by investing in a manner that differs from the conventional wisdom, when the consensus opinion appears to be wrong....
and hip book author eminently media-ready.
One critical article, "The Skeptical Environmentalist: A Case Study in the Manufacture of News", attributes this media success to its initial, influential supporters:
- "News of the pending book first appeared in the UK in early June of 2001 when a Sunday Times article by Nayab Chohan featured an advanced report of claims made by Lomborg that London's air was cleaner than at any time since 1585. Headlined "Cleanest London Air for 400 Years," the publicity hook was both local and timely, as the tail end of the article linked the book's questioning of the Kyoto climate change protocol to U.S. president George W. Bush's visit the same week to Europe, and Bush's controversial opposition to the treaty. The Times followed up the report the next day with a news article further detailing the book's Kyoto protocol angle."
- "With The Times reports, Lomborg and his claims had made the Anglo media agenda. As is typically the case, other media outlets followed the reporting of the elite newspaper. Articles pegging the claims of The Skeptical Environmentalist to Bush's European visit ran later that week in the U.K's The Express and Daily Telegraph, and Canada's Toronto Star."
The media was criticized for the biased selection of reviewers and not informing readers of reviewers' background. Richard C. Bell, writing for Worldwatch noted that the Wall Street Journal, "instead of seeking scientists with a critical perspective," like many publications "put out reviews by people who were closely associated with Lomborg", with the Journal soliciting a review from the Competitive Enterprise Institute's Ronald Bailey, someone "who had earlier written a book called The True State of the World, from which much of Lomborg's claims were taken." Bell also criticized the Washington Post, whose Sunday Book World assigned the book review to Dennis Dutton, identified as "a professor of philosophy who lectures on the dangers of pseudoscience at the science faculties of the University of Canterbury in New Zealand", and as the editor of the web site Arts and Letters Daily. Bell noted that:
"The Post did not tell its readers that Dutton's web site features links to the Global Climate Coalition, an anti-Kyoto consortium of oil and coal businessesEnergy Lobby"Energy lobby" is the umbrella term used to name the paid representatives of large fossil fuel and electric utilities corporations who attempt to influence governmental policy...
, and to the messages of Julian Simon --the man whose denialClimate change denialClimate change denial is a term used to describe organized attempts to downplay, deny or dismiss the scientific consensus on the extent of global warming, its significance, and its connection to human behavior, especially for commercial or ideological reasons...
that global warming was occurring apparently gave Lomborg the idea for his book in the first place. It was hardly surprising that Dutton anointed Lomborg's book as 'the most significant work on the environment since the appearance of its polar opposite, Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, in 1962. It's a magnificent achievement.'"
The "unrealistic" critique
Some critics of The Skeptical Environmentalist took issue not with the statistical investigation of Lomborg's Litany, but with the suggestions and conclusions for which they were the foundation. This line of criticism considered the book as a contribution to the policy debate over environment rather than the work of natural science. In a BBCBBC
The British Broadcasting Corporation is a British public service broadcaster. Its headquarters is at Broadcasting House in the City of Westminster, London. It is the largest broadcaster in the world, with about 23,000 staff...
column from August 23, 2001, veteran BBC environmental correspondent Alex Kirby wrote:
- "I am neither a statistician nor a scientist, and I lack the skill to judge Lomborg's reworkings of the statistics of conventional wisdom. But I am worried that on virtually every topic he touches, he reaches conclusions radically different from almost everybody else. That seems to suggest that most scientists are wrong, short-sighted, naïve, interested only in securing research funds, or deliberately dancing to the campaigners' tune. Most I know are honest, intelligent and competent. So it beggars belief to suppose that Professor Lomborg is the only one in step, every single time."
Kirby's first concern was not with the extensive research and statistical analysis, but the conclusions drawn from them:
- "What really riles me about his book is that it is so damnably reasonable. In the rational world that Bjørn Lomborg thinks we all inhabit, we would manage problems sensibly, one by one...But the real world is messier, more unpredictable - and more impatient."
On September 5, 2001, at a Lomborg book reading in England, British environmentalist author Mark Lynas
Mark Lynas
Mark Lynas is a British author, journalist and environmental activist who focuses on climate change. He is a contributor to New Statesman, Ecologist, Granta and Geographical magazines, and The Guardian and The Observer newspapers in the UK; he also worked on the film The Age of Stupid...
threw a cream pie in Lomborg's face. In a September 9, 2001, article, "Why I pied Lomborg", Lynas stated:
- "Lomborg specialises in presenting the reader with false choices - such as the assertion that money not spent on preventing climate change could be spent on bringing clean water to the developing world, thereby saving more lives per dollar of expenditure. Of course, in the real world, these are not the kind of choices we are faced with. Why not take the $60 billion from George Bush's stupid Son of Star Wars program and use that cash to save lives in Ethiopia? Because in a world where political choices are not made democratically at a global level, but by a small number of rich countries and corporations, the poor and the environment are never going to be a priority."
The December 12, 2001 issue of Grist
Grist Magazine
Grist is a free American liberal non-profit online magazine that has been publishing environmental news and commentary with a wry twist since 1999. Grists taglines are "Gloom and doom with a sense of humor" and "A beacon in the smog"...
, a popular online environmental magazine, devoted an issue to The Skeptical Environmentalist, with a series of essays from various scientists challenging individual sections. A separate article examining the book's overall approach took issue with the framing of Lomborg's conclusions:
- "Lomborg begins by making the entirely reasonable point that accurate information is critical to informed decision-making. If information is skewed to paint a bleaker environmental picture than is justified by reality, as he claims, then we will in turn skew our limited resources in favor of the environment and away from other important causes. ... Then Lomborg proceeds to weigh the causes championed by the environmental movement against a deliberately circumscribed universe of other possible "good causes." It is up to us, he says, to make responsible decisions about whether to protect the environment or "boost Medicaid, increase funding to the arts, or cut taxes. ... The worse they can make this state appear, the easier it is for them to convince us we need to spend more money on the environment rather on hospitals, kindergartens, etc." A few pages later he again claims that the purpose of the Litany is to cause us to prioritize the environment over "hospitals, child day care, etc." ... But who is really failing to consider how our money is spent? As Lomborg notes, "We will never have enough money," and therefore, "Prioritization is absolutely essential." Why, then, does he weigh the environment only against hospitals and childcare, rather than against, say, industry subsidies and defense spending?"
Addressing the apparent difficulty of scientists opposing The Skeptical Environmentalist in criticizing the book strictly on the basis of statistics and challenging the conclusions about areas of environmental sciences that were drawn from them, Lynas contends:
- "One of the biggest problems facing the environmental community in analyzing Lomborg’s book is that his work, as flawed as it is, has clearly been very time-consuming and meticulous. In a busy and under funded world, few people have the time or background knowledge to plow though 3,000 footnotes checking his sources. It is impressively interdisciplinary."
Support
Despite intense criticism in most of the natural scientific press, The Skeptical Environmentalist received positive, sometimes enthusiastic, reviews from policy magazines, academic journals in social science and many newspapers and other mainstream media. Given the timing of the English edition, which was published in August 2001, it has been suggested that the media coverage of The Skeptical Environmentalist would have been considerably greater, had not the September 11, 2001 attacksSeptember 11, 2001 attacks
The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks (also referred to as September 11, September 11th or 9/119/11 is pronounced "nine eleven". The slash is not part of the pronunciation...
dominated media coverage for several months.
Influential UK newsweekly The Economist
The Economist
The Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...
weighed in at the start with heavy support, publishing an advance essay by Lomborg in which he detailed his Litany, and following up with a highly favorable review and supportive coverage. It stated that "This is one of the most valuable books on public policy—not merely environmental policy— to have been written for the intelligent general reader in the past ten years...The Skeptical Environmentalist is a triumph."
Among the general media, the New York Times stated that "The primary target of the book, a substantial work of analysis with almost 3,000 footnotes, are statements made by environmental organizations like the Worldwatch Institute, the World Wildlife Fund and Greenpeace." The Wall Street Journal deemed Lomborg's work "a superbly documented and readable book.". A Washington Post review claimed that "Bjørn Lomborg's good news about the environment is bad news for Green ideologues. His richly informative, lucid book is now the place from which environmental policy decisions must be argued. In fact, The Skeptical Environmentalist is the most significant work on the environment since the appearance of its polar opposite, Rachel Carson's Silent Spring
Silent Spring
Silent Spring is a book written by Rachel Carson and published by Houghton Mifflin on 27 September 1962. The book is widely credited with helping launch the environmental movement....
, in 1962. It's a magnificent achievement." Rolling Stone
Rolling Stone
Rolling Stone is a US-based magazine devoted to music, liberal politics, and popular culture that is published every two weeks. Rolling Stone was founded in San Francisco in 1967 by Jann Wenner and music critic Ralph J...
wrote that "Lomborg pulls off the remarkable feat of welding the techno-optimism of the Internet age with a lefty's concern for the fate of the planet."
Many of the supporters of the book argued that ostensibly scientific criticisms of the book are in fact political or ideological. Moreover, many have claimed that critics fail to engage with the most controversial proposition of the book, that even if one accept the scientific implication of global warming, the Kyoto protocol is not an appropriate policy response and that environmental policy should be assessed on the basis of cost-benefit analysis.
In March 2003 the New York Law School Law Review published an examination of the critical reviews of Skeptical Environmentalist from the Scientific American, Nature and Science magazines by Professor of Law David Shoenbrod and then Senior Law Student Christi Wilson of New York Law School. The authors take the perspective of a court faced with an argument against hearing an expert witness in order to evaluate whether Lomborg was credible as an expert, and whether his testimony is valid to his expertise. They classify the types of criticisms leveled at Lomborg and his arguments, and proceed to evaluate each of the reasons given for disqualifying Lomborg. They conclude that a court should accept Lomborg as a credible expert in the field of statistics, and that his testimony was appropriately restricted to his area of expertise. Of course, Professor Shoenbrod and Wilson note, Mr. Lomborg's factual conclusions may not be correct, nor his policy proposals effective, but his criticisms should be addressed, not merely dismissed out of hand.
The Union of Concerned Scientists
Union of Concerned Scientists
The Union of Concerned Scientists is a nonprofit science advocacy group based in the United States. The UCS membership includes many private citizens in addition to professional scientists. James J...
and the Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty
Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty
The Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty are a set of three committees under the Danish Ministry of Research and Information Technology: a committee for natural science, agricultural and veterinary science and technical science; a committee for health and medical science; and a committee...
raised concern about the responses of certain sections of the scientific community to a peer reviewed book published under the category of environmental economics. The groups worried that the receptions to Lomborg were a politicization of science by scientists. This unease was reflected in the involvement of the Union of Concerned Scientists and Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty in "When scientists politicize science: making sense of controversy over The Skeptical Environmentalist", where Roger A. Pielke argued:
In "Green with Ideology - The hidden agenda behind the "scientific" attacks on Bjørn Lomborg’s controversial book, The Skeptical Environmentalist", Ronald Bailey
Ronald Bailey
Ronald Bailey is the science editor for Reason magazine. He was born in San Antonio, Texas and raised in Washington County, Virginia, and attended the University of Virginia, where he earned a B.A...
stated that "The bitter anti-Lomborg campaign reveals the hidden crisis of what we might call ideological environmentalism." He further wrote:
Jeremy Clarkson
Jeremy Clarkson
Jeremy Charles Robert Clarkson is an English broadcaster, journalist and writer who specialises in motoring. He is best known for his role on the BBC TV show Top Gear along with co-presenters Richard Hammond and James May...
has also shown support for the book, believing it to be a voice of reason which he frequently mentions it in his Sunday Times columns.
Longer-term impact
The Skeptical Environmentalist became a high-profile international bestseller during 2001–2002. Lomborg's book currently appears on the reading list of university environmental studies courses as recommended or required reading. In the years following publication, Lomborg's impact on the public policy debate was heightened by his association with the Copenhagen ConsensusCopenhagen Consensus
Copenhagen Consensus is a project that seeks to establish priorities for advancing global welfare using methodologies based on the theory of welfare economics. It was conceived and organized by Bjørn Lomborg, the author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and the then director of the Danish...
, which he initiated. Lomborg's second book, Global Crises, Global Solutions
Global Crises, Global Solutions
Global Crises, Global Solutions is a book presenting the methodology, economic papers and conclusions of the first Copenhagen Consensus, edited by Bjørn Lomborg, published in 2004 by the Cambridge University Press....
, published in 2004 by Cambridge University Press, is based on that academic project, which comprises eight economists, including four Nobel Prize in Economics winners. Like Skeptical Environmentalist, Lomborg's second book addresses global problems broadly, using data analysis and the interpretations of respected economists
Economist
An economist is a professional in the social science discipline of economics. The individual may also study, develop, and apply theories and concepts from economics and write about economic policy...
.
Accusations of scientific dishonesty
After the publication of The Skeptical Environmentalist, Lomborg was accused of scientific dishonesty. Several environmental scientists brought a total of three complaints against Lomborg to the Danish Committees on Scientific DishonestyDanish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty
The Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty are a set of three committees under the Danish Ministry of Research and Information Technology: a committee for natural science, agricultural and veterinary science and technical science; a committee for health and medical science; and a committee...
(DCSD), a body under Denmark's Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation
Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation of Denmark
The Danish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Higher Education is the Danish ministry in charge of research, innovation and education above high school/upper secondary school....
. The charges claimed that The Skeptical Environmentalist contained deliberately misleading data and flawed conclusions. Due to the similarity of the accusations, the DCSD decided to proceed with the three cases under one investigation.
DCSD investigation
On January 6, 2003, a mixed DCSD ruling was released, in which the Committees decided that The Skeptical Environmentalist was scientifically dishonest, but Lomborg was innocent of wrongdoing due to a lack of expertise in the relevant fields:- "Objectively speaking, the publication of the work under consideration is deemed to fall within the concept of scientific dishonesty. ...In view of the subjective requirements made in terms of intent or gross negligence, however, Lomborg's publication cannot fall within the bounds of this characterization. Conversely, the publication is deemed clearly contrary to the standards of good scientific practice."
The DCSD cited The Skeptical Environmentalist for:
- Fabrication of data;
- Selective discarding of unwanted results (selective citation);
- Deliberately misleading use of statistical methodsSystemic biasSystemic bias is the inherent tendency of a process to favor particular outcomes. The term is a neologism that generally refers to human systems; the analogous problem in non-human systems is often called systematic bias, and leads to systematic error in measurements or estimates.-Bias in...
; - Distorted interpretation of conclusions;
- PlagiarismPlagiarismPlagiarism is defined in dictionaries as the "wrongful appropriation," "close imitation," or "purloining and publication" of another author's "language, thoughts, ideas, or expressions," and the representation of them as one's own original work, but the notion remains problematic with nebulous...
; - Deliberate misinterpretation of others' results.
MSTI review and response
On February 13, 2003, Lomborg filed a complaint against the DCSD's decision with the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MSTI), which oversees the group.On December 17, 2003, the Ministry found that the DCSD had made a number of procedural errors, including:
- Not using a precise standard for deciding "good scientific practice" in the social sciences;
- Defining "objective scientific dishonesty" in a way unclear in determining whether "distortion of statistical data" had to be deliberate or not;
- Not properly documenting that The Skeptical Environmentalist was a scientific publication on which they had the right to intervene in the first place;
- Not providing specific statements on actual errors.
The Ministry remitted the case to the DCSD. In doing so the Ministry indicated that it regarded the DCSD's previous findings of scientific dishonesty in regard to the book as invalid. The Ministry also instructed the DCSD to consider reinvestigation of Lomborg. On March 12, 2004, the Committee formally decided not to act further on the complaints, reasoning that renewed scrutiny would, in all likelihood, result in the same conclusion.
Response of the scientific community
The original DCSD decision about Lomborg provoked a petitionPetition
A petition is a request to do something, most commonly addressed to a government official or public entity. Petitions to a deity are a form of prayer....
among Danish academics from 308 scientists, many from the social sciences, who criticised the DCSD's investigative methods.
Another group of Danish scientists collected signatures in support of the DCSD. The 640 signatures in this second petition came almost exclusively from the medical and natural science
Natural science
The natural sciences are branches of science that seek to elucidate the rules that govern the natural world by using empirical and scientific methods...
s, and included Nobel laureate
Nobel Prize
The Nobel Prizes are annual international awards bestowed by Scandinavian committees in recognition of cultural and scientific advances. The will of the Swedish chemist Alfred Nobel, the inventor of dynamite, established the prizes in 1895...
in Chemistry Jens Christian Skou
Jens Christian Skou
Jens Christian Skou is a Danish chemist and Nobel laureate.Skou was born in Lemvig, Denmark to a wealthy family. His father Magnus Martinus Skou was a timber and coal merchant. His mother Ane-Margrethe Skou took over the company after the death of his father. At the age of 15 Skou entered a...
, former university rector
Rector
The word rector has a number of different meanings; it is widely used to refer to an academic, religious or political administrator...
Kjeld Møllgård, and professor Poul Harremoës from the Technical University of Denmark
Technical University of Denmark
The Technical University of Denmark , often simply referred to as DTU, is a university just north of Copenhagen, Denmark. It was founded in 1829 at the initiative of Hans Christian Ørsted as Denmark's first polytechnic, and is today ranked among Europe's leading engineering institutions, and the...
.
Continued debate and criticism
The rulings of the Danish authorities in 2003–2004 left Lomborg's critics frustrated, while Lomborg was jubilant, claiming vindication as a result of MSTI's decision to set aside DCSD funding. But critics pointed out that while Skeptical Environmentalist had not been ruled invalid, the work had not received any scientific validation.A Dutch think tank
Think tank
A think tank is an organization that conducts research and engages in advocacy in areas such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, and technology issues. Most think tanks are non-profit organizations, which some countries such as the United States and Canada provide with tax...
, Heidelberg Appeal
Heidelberg Appeal
The Heidelberg Appeal, authored by Michel Salomon and signed by a large number of scientists, is a statement decrying "an irrational ideology which is opposed to scientific and industrial progress, and impedes economic and social development." Issued to coincide with the opening of the United...
, published a report in which it claimed 25 out of 27 accusations against Lomborg to be unsubstantiated or not pertinent.
A group of related scientists also published an article in 2005 in the Journal of Information Ethics, in which they concluded that most criticism against Lomborg was unjustified, and that the scientific community had misused their authority to suppress the author.
Kåre Fog
The claim that allegations against Lomborg were unsubstantiated was challenged in the next issue of Journal of Information Ethics by Kåre Fog, one of the original DCSD petitioners. Fog reasserted his contention that, despite the ministry's decision, most of the accusations against Lomborg were valid, and rejected what he called "the Galileo hypothesis", which portrays Lomborg as a brave young man confronting an entrenched opposition.Fog has established a curated catalogue of criticisms against Lomborg, which includes a section for each page of every Skeptical Environmentalist chapter. Fog enumerates and details what he believes to be flaws and errors in Lomborg's work. He explicitly indicates if particular mistakes may have been made deliberately by Lomborg, in order to mislead. According to Fog, since none of his denunciations of Lomborg's work have been proven false, the suspicion that Lomborg has misled deliberately is maintained. Lomborg has written a full text published online as Godehetens Pris (Danish) that goes through the main allegations put forward by Fog and others.
Documentary film
Bjørn Lomborg released a documentary feature film based on his follow-up book entitled COOL IT on 12 November 2010 in the United States.The Atlantic hailed says the film as
See also
- EnvironmentalismEnvironmentalismEnvironmentalism is a broad philosophy, ideology and social movement regarding concerns for environmental conservation and improvement of the health of the environment, particularly as the measure for this health seeks to incorporate the concerns of non-human elements...
- Environmental skepticismEnvironmental skepticismEnvironmental skepticism is an umbrella term that describes those that argue that particular claims put forward by environmentalists and environmental scientists who support the first are false or exaggerated, along with those who are critical of environmentalism in general...
- Global warmingGlobal warmingGlobal warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades...
- Hubbert peak
- OverpopulationOverpopulationOverpopulation is a condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat. The term often refers to the relationship between the human population and its environment, the Earth...
- The Population BombThe Population BombThe Population Bomb was a best-selling book written by Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife, Anne Ehrlich , in 1968. It warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation, as well as other major societal upheavals, and advocated immediate action to limit population growth...
- Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global WarmingCool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global WarmingCool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming is a book by the Danish statistician and political scientist Bjørn Lomborg. The book is a sequel to The Skeptical Environmentalist , which in English translation brought the author to world attention...
- Lomborg's follow up book published in 2007 - Howard FrielHoward FrielHoward Friel is a U.S. independent scholar and author who wrote The Lomborg Deception: Setting the Record Straight About Global Warming, , a critique of Bjørn Lomborg's books The Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming.He also co-authored...
, critic of Lomborg
Literature
- Ed Regis (1997), The Doomslayer(archieved 2009-12-16) (Julian Simon article in Wired magazine), Wired
External links
- A sample of the book (PDF)
- A 244-page rebuttal to Lomborg, by twelve scientists, published by the Danish Ecological Council; free download
- Lomborg's responses to his critics at Bjørn Lomborg's Website
- HAN selection of complaints made by Lomborg critics, an article collection by Heidelberg Appeal Nederland, supporting Lomborg.
- Kyoto Economics by William Shepherd
- New York Law School Law Professor and a Senior Law Student review of the reviews to determine whether Lomborg is still credible as an expert witness and whether his testimony is appropriate to his expertise based on the criticisms of Scientific American, Nature and Science.
- The Lomborg Deception: Setting the Record Straight About Global Warming by Howard Friel (Yale University Press http://yalepress.yale.edu/yupbooks/book.asp?isbn=9780300161038, 2010)
Reviews of the book
- John Gillot: "The Skeptical Environmentalist" SpikedSpiked (magazine)Spiked is a British Internet magazine focusing on politics, culture and society from a humanist and libertarian viewpoint.- Editors and contributors :...
-Science Online, September 10, 2001. - "Doomsday postponed" The EconomistThe EconomistThe Economist is an English-language weekly news and international affairs publication owned by The Economist Newspaper Ltd. and edited in offices in the City of Westminster, London, England. Continuous publication began under founder James Wilson in September 1843...
, September 6, 2001. - "Greener Than You Think", by Denis DuttonDenis DuttonDenis Dutton was an academic, web entrepreneur and libertarian media commentator/activist. He was a professor of philosophy at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand...
in The Washington PostThe Washington PostThe Washington Post is Washington, D.C.'s largest newspaper and its oldest still-existing paper, founded in 1877. Located in the capital of the United States, The Post has a particular emphasis on national politics. D.C., Maryland, and Virginia editions are printed for daily circulation...
, October 21, 2001. - Review of The Skeptical Environmentalist by the Union of Concerned ScientistsUnion of Concerned ScientistsThe Union of Concerned Scientists is a nonprofit science advocacy group based in the United States. The UCS membership includes many private citizens in addition to professional scientists. James J...
with reviews from Peter GleickPeter GleickDr. Peter H. Gleick is a scientist working on issues related to the environment, economic development, and international security, with a focus on global freshwater challenges. He works at the Pacific Institute in Oakland, California, which he co-founded in 1987. In 2003 he was awarded a MacArthur...
, Jerry D. Mahlman and E.O. Wilson. - "Nine things journalists should know about The Skeptical Environmentalist", World Resources InstituteWorld Resources InstituteThe World Resources Institute is an environmental think tank founded in 1982 based in Washington, D.C. in the United States.WRI is an independent, non-partisan and nonprofit organization with a staff of more than 100 scientists, economists, policy experts, business analysts, statistical analysts,...
. - "The Skeptical Environmentalist: A Case Study in the Manufacture of News", Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the ParanormalCommittee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the ParanormalThe Committee for Skeptical Inquiry , formerly known as the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal , is a program within the U.S...
, January 23, 2003. - "Something Is Rotten in the State of Denmark", GristGristGrist is grain that has been separated from its chaff in preparation for grinding. It can also mean grain that has been ground at a grist mill. Its etymology derives from the verb grind....
Magazine, December 12, 2001. - Misleading Math about the Earth: Science defends itself against The Skeptical Environmentalist Scientific AmericanScientific AmericanScientific American is a popular science magazine. It is notable for its long history of presenting science monthly to an educated but not necessarily scientific public, through its careful attention to the clarity of its text as well as the quality of its specially commissioned color graphics...
January 2002 - Chris Lavers: "You've never had it so good", The GuardianThe GuardianThe Guardian, formerly known as The Manchester Guardian , is a British national daily newspaper in the Berliner format...
September 1, 2001.