Thomas Barnett
Encyclopedia
Thomas P.M. Barnett (born 1962) is an American
military
geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat.
, Wisconsin
, and grew up in Boscobel
, Wisconsin
. A distant cousin, Major General
George Barnett
(also raised in Boscobel), was Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps
during World War I
. After graduation from Boscobel High School, Barnett received his B.A. (Honors) from the University of Wisconsin–Madison
in Russian Language and Literature, and International Relations with an emphasis in US foreign policy. He received his MA in Regional Studies: Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia as well as his Ph.D in Political Science from Harvard.
From 1998 through 2004, Barnett was a Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College
, Newport
, Rhode Island.
At the Naval War College, Barnett served as Director of the New Rule Sets Project an effort designed to explore how the spread of globalization alters the basic "rules of the road" in the international security environment, with special reference to how these changes redefine the U.S. military's historic role as "security enabler" of America's commercial network ties with the world.http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/projects/newrulesset/nrs_index.html The project was hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald and took place near the top of One World Trade Center
. After the offices of Cantor Fitzgerald and its carbon credit
brokerage subsidiary CantorCO2e were destroyed at One World Trade Center on 9/11/2001, Barnett described the event as the "first live-broadcast, mass snuff film
in human history."http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/published/wsj.htm
Following the September 11, 2001 attacks
, from October 2001 to June 2003, Barnett worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation
in the Department of Defense
under the direction of the late Vice Admiral
(ret). Arthur K. Cebrowski
, during which time he created a Powerpoint
brief that developed into his book The Pentagon's New Map
.http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/archives2/000012.html
In 2003, he wrote an article titled "The Pentagon's New Map
" for Esquire magazine that outlined many of these ideas. He developed the article into a book The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century
, published in 2004.
A sequel Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating was published in 2005.
Barnett is currently the Senior Managing Director of Enterra Solutions, a contributing editor for Esquire magazine, and a Distinguished Scholar and Author at the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy
at the University of Tennessee
.http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/biography.htm He writes the New Rules http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/authors/308/thomas-p-m-barnett column at World Politics Review.
and terrorist
actions such as the September 11, 2001 attacks
.
Barnett had grown up with the expectation that the United States and the Soviet Union
would remain in the Cold War standoff indefinitely, and had followed an education path that would have been useful for that context. However, shortly after he completed his education and started to work in the public and private sectors, the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving America as the world's sole superpower
. He became an early advocate of collaborating with the new Russia
to smooth the nation's transition into its new role in the world. The fall of the Soviet Union was a shock to the military establishment in the U.S., leaving many to wonder what nation or group of nations would pose a significant threat in the future.
Barnett proffered that without the Soviets to defend against, the American military establishment lost focus. Some planners were concerned that the new world order was one of chaos
, which is hardly something that is easy to build war game
s around. Many theories were bandied about, ranging from rogue state
theories involving states like Iraq
and North Korea
, to the rise of some unexpected country to great power, or, most predominantly, the emergence of China
as a new threat. Nobody could clarify which concept was most likely, right up until the September 11 attacks essentially wiped those ideas out completely.
The NewRuleSets.Project was one of many programs that the United States military has launched since the fall of the Soviet Union in order to determine what threats will emerge in the coming decades. The project is a unique collaboration between military and financial analysts. The project name comes from the idea of "rule sets," the combination of written and unwritten rules that people within a region use. It has been noted that countries that have similar rule sets tend to collaborate much more effectively than countries that have significant differences. For instance, the U.S. and Soviet Union had rule sets that were very different. Once the Soviets lost control, the country went through a "rule set reset," organizing itself to more closely align with the largely democratic and capitalist societies it had once opposed.
The group also noticed that globalization
has caused a fairly common rule set to be shared between a great many countries around the world. States that have benefitted from globalization and begun to share in the wealth and prosperity associated with that are also losing interest in waging war with one another. Participants in the project noticed that once the per capita
income of a country increases to about US$
3000 per year, war essentially disappears. There are a few places where this hasn't exactly been the case, but it seems to largely hold true for now.
Another interesting thing to note was that, of U.S. military deployments around the world since 1990, virtually all have taken place in countries that do not meet that level of income. This leads him to unabashedly proclaim himself an economic determinist. Examining the regions more thoroughly, it was also noted that the countries have very little flow of people, information, or investment money across their borders. This all leads to the idea of these countries being "disconnected" from the outside world, running on rule sets that are different from that of globalized societies.
Barnett has termed the globalized countries the "Functioning Core," or simply "the Core." The other countries are part of the "Non-Integrating Gap," or simply "the Gap." The Gap has been shrinking as globalization has expanded. Since most terrorists seem to come from the Gap, he believes that the American military should focus on building partnerships with "seam states," countries bordering the Gap, to stabilize those regions. Stable states would bring more investment and more connectedness with the outside world, therefore progressively shrinking the Gap. The end result of all of this, if it proves to be successful, would be nothing less than the end of interstate warfare on the planet, and probably a significant reduction in intrastate warfare and other problems like terrorism.
.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/03/11/ST2008031102008.html
and Dai Min
, prepared the China US Grand Strategy Proposal between Presidents Hu and Obama. The agreement received input from China's: Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Former UN Ambassador, Former U.S. Ambassador, Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the PLA
, Former Military Attaché to North Korea and Israel, Former Vice Minister of Commerce, Central Party School Institute of International Strategic Studies, Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs, China Center for International Economic Exchanges, China Institute For International Strategic Studies, China Foundation for International & Strategic Studies, Boao Forum, State Council’s China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, and Premier and State Councilors.
The agreement's provisions were introduced in Barnett's column in World Politics Review, and in John Milligan-Whyte
and Dai Min’s
columns in People’s Daily Online in English and in China Daily Online
in Mandarin. The text of the agreement itself appeared in the September/October 2011 edition of Foreign Affairs.
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
military
Military
A military is an organization authorized by its greater society to use lethal force, usually including use of weapons, in defending its country by combating actual or perceived threats. The military may have additional functions of use to its greater society, such as advancing a political agenda e.g...
geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat.
Education and career
Barnett was born in ChiltonChilton, Wisconsin
Chilton is a city in and county seat of Calumet County in the U.S. state of Wisconsin. The population was 3,708 at the 2000 census. The city is located partially within the Town of Chilton.-History:...
, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is a U.S. state located in the north-central United States and is part of the Midwest. It is bordered by Minnesota to the west, Iowa to the southwest, Illinois to the south, Lake Michigan to the east, Michigan to the northeast, and Lake Superior to the north. Wisconsin's capital is...
, and grew up in Boscobel
Boscobel, Wisconsin
Boscobel is a city in Grant County, Wisconsin, United States. The population was 3,047 at the 2000 census. Approximately 0.6 mi. to the north of the city, across a riparian swamp, is the Wisconsin River. U.S. Route 61 crosses the Wisconsin River at Boscobel. To the south, the city is...
, Wisconsin
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is a U.S. state located in the north-central United States and is part of the Midwest. It is bordered by Minnesota to the west, Iowa to the southwest, Illinois to the south, Lake Michigan to the east, Michigan to the northeast, and Lake Superior to the north. Wisconsin's capital is...
. A distant cousin, Major General
Major General
Major general or major-general is a military rank used in many countries. It is derived from the older rank of sergeant major general. A major general is a high-ranking officer, normally subordinate to the rank of lieutenant general and senior to the ranks of brigadier and brigadier general...
George Barnett
George Barnett
Major General George Barnett was the 12th Commandant of the United States Marine Corps. He was Commandant during the U.S. involvement in World War I. He was born in Lancaster, Wisconsin and grew up in the small town of Boscobel, Wisconsin.-Early career:Barnett entered the U.S...
(also raised in Boscobel), was Commandant of the U.S. Marine Corps
United States Marine Corps
The United States Marine Corps is a branch of the United States Armed Forces responsible for providing power projection from the sea, using the mobility of the United States Navy to deliver combined-arms task forces rapidly. It is one of seven uniformed services of the United States...
during World War I
World War I
World War I , which was predominantly called the World War or the Great War from its occurrence until 1939, and the First World War or World War I thereafter, was a major war centred in Europe that began on 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918...
. After graduation from Boscobel High School, Barnett received his B.A. (Honors) from the University of Wisconsin–Madison
University of Wisconsin–Madison
The University of Wisconsin–Madison is a public research university located in Madison, Wisconsin, United States. Founded in 1848, UW–Madison is the flagship campus of the University of Wisconsin System. It became a land-grant institution in 1866...
in Russian Language and Literature, and International Relations with an emphasis in US foreign policy. He received his MA in Regional Studies: Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia as well as his Ph.D in Political Science from Harvard.
From 1998 through 2004, Barnett was a Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis & Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College
Naval War College
The Naval War College is an education and research institution of the United States Navy that specializes in developing ideas for naval warfare and passing them along to officers of the Navy. The college is located on the grounds of Naval Station Newport in Newport, Rhode Island...
, Newport
Newport, Rhode Island
Newport is a city on Aquidneck Island in Newport County, Rhode Island, United States, about south of Providence. Known as a New England summer resort and for the famous Newport Mansions, it is the home of Salve Regina University and Naval Station Newport which houses the United States Naval War...
, Rhode Island.
At the Naval War College, Barnett served as Director of the New Rule Sets Project an effort designed to explore how the spread of globalization alters the basic "rules of the road" in the international security environment, with special reference to how these changes redefine the U.S. military's historic role as "security enabler" of America's commercial network ties with the world.http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/projects/newrulesset/nrs_index.html The project was hosted by Cantor Fitzgerald and took place near the top of One World Trade Center
World Trade Center
The original World Trade Center was a complex with seven buildings featuring landmark twin towers in Lower Manhattan, New York City, United States. The complex opened on April 4, 1973, and was destroyed in 2001 during the September 11 attacks. The site is currently being rebuilt with five new...
. After the offices of Cantor Fitzgerald and its carbon credit
Carbon credit
A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable certificate or permit representing the right to emit one tonne of carbon dioxide or the mass of another greenhouse gas with a carbon dioxide equivalent equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide....
brokerage subsidiary CantorCO2e were destroyed at One World Trade Center on 9/11/2001, Barnett described the event as the "first live-broadcast, mass snuff film
Snuff film
A snuff film is a motion picture genre that depicts the actual death or murder of a person or people, without the aid of special effects, for the express purpose of distribution and entertainment or financial exploitation. For-profit snuff films are generally regarded as an urban legend, whose...
in human history."http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/published/wsj.htm
Following the September 11, 2001 attacks
September 11, 2001 attacks
The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks (also referred to as September 11, September 11th or 9/119/11 is pronounced "nine eleven". The slash is not part of the pronunciation...
, from October 2001 to June 2003, Barnett worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation
Office of Force Transformation
The United States Department of Defense Office of Force Transformation was established October 29, 2001 in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. It now appears to have been disestablished....
in the Department of Defense
United States Department of Defense
The United States Department of Defense is the U.S...
under the direction of the late Vice Admiral
Vice Admiral
Vice admiral is a senior naval rank of a three-star flag officer, which is equivalent to lieutenant general in the other uniformed services. A vice admiral is typically senior to a rear admiral and junior to an admiral...
(ret). Arthur K. Cebrowski
Arthur K. Cebrowski
Vice Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski was a retired United States Navy admiral who served from October 2001 to January 2005 as Director of the Office of Force Transformation in the U.S. Department of Defense...
, during which time he created a Powerpoint
Microsoft PowerPoint
Microsoft PowerPoint, usually just called PowerPoint, is a non-free commercial presentation program developed by Microsoft. It is part of the Microsoft Office suite, and runs on Microsoft Windows and Apple's Mac OS X operating system...
brief that developed into his book The Pentagon's New Map
The Pentagon's New Map
The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century is a 2004 book by Thomas P.M. Barnett based around an earlier article he wrote for Esquire magazine. It outlines a new grand strategy for American foreign policy...
.http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/archives2/000012.html
In 2003, he wrote an article titled "The Pentagon's New Map
The Pentagon's New Map
The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century is a 2004 book by Thomas P.M. Barnett based around an earlier article he wrote for Esquire magazine. It outlines a new grand strategy for American foreign policy...
" for Esquire magazine that outlined many of these ideas. He developed the article into a book The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century
The Pentagon's New Map
The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century is a 2004 book by Thomas P.M. Barnett based around an earlier article he wrote for Esquire magazine. It outlines a new grand strategy for American foreign policy...
, published in 2004.
A sequel Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating was published in 2005.
Barnett is currently the Senior Managing Director of Enterra Solutions, a contributing editor for Esquire magazine, and a Distinguished Scholar and Author at the Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy
Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy
The Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, located at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville, is a non-partisan organization, which emphasizes better understanding of government and greater appreciation for the importance of public service. The Center strives to honor its namesake,...
at the University of Tennessee
University of Tennessee
The University of Tennessee is a public land-grant university headquartered at Knoxville, Tennessee, United States...
.http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/biography.htm He writes the New Rules http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/authors/308/thomas-p-m-barnett column at World Politics Review.
Ideas and concepts
Barnett's ideas involve the relationship between the United States and the rest of the world in past, present, and future contexts, although much of the work revolves around defining possible future roles of the country in the aftermath of the Cold WarCold War
The Cold War was the continuing state from roughly 1946 to 1991 of political conflict, military tension, proxy wars, and economic competition between the Communist World—primarily the Soviet Union and its satellite states and allies—and the powers of the Western world, primarily the United States...
and terrorist
Terrorism
Terrorism is the systematic use of terror, especially as a means of coercion. In the international community, however, terrorism has no universally agreed, legally binding, criminal law definition...
actions such as the September 11, 2001 attacks
September 11, 2001 attacks
The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks The September 11 attacks (also referred to as September 11, September 11th or 9/119/11 is pronounced "nine eleven". The slash is not part of the pronunciation...
.
Barnett had grown up with the expectation that the United States and the Soviet Union
Soviet Union
The Soviet Union , officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics , was a constitutionally socialist state that existed in Eurasia between 1922 and 1991....
would remain in the Cold War standoff indefinitely, and had followed an education path that would have been useful for that context. However, shortly after he completed his education and started to work in the public and private sectors, the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving America as the world's sole superpower
Superpower
A superpower is a state with a dominant position in the international system which has the ability to influence events and its own interests and project power on a worldwide scale to protect those interests...
. He became an early advocate of collaborating with the new Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
to smooth the nation's transition into its new role in the world. The fall of the Soviet Union was a shock to the military establishment in the U.S., leaving many to wonder what nation or group of nations would pose a significant threat in the future.
Barnett proffered that without the Soviets to defend against, the American military establishment lost focus. Some planners were concerned that the new world order was one of chaos
Civil disorder
Civil disorder, also known as civil unrest or civil strife, is a broad term that is typically used by law enforcement to describe one or more forms of disturbance caused by a group of people. Civil disturbance is typically a symptom of, and a form of protest against, major socio-political problems;...
, which is hardly something that is easy to build war game
Wargaming
A wargame is a strategy game that deals with military operations of various types, real or fictional. Wargaming is the hobby dedicated to the play of such games, which can also be called conflict simulations, or consims for short. When used professionally to study warfare, it is generally known as...
s around. Many theories were bandied about, ranging from rogue state
Rogue state
Rogue state is a controversial term applied by some international theorists to states they consider threatening to the world's peace. This means meeting certain criteria, such as being ruled by authoritarian regimes that severely restrict human rights, sponsor terrorism, and seek to proliferate...
theories involving states like Iraq
Iraq
Iraq ; officially the Republic of Iraq is a country in Western Asia spanning most of the northwestern end of the Zagros mountain range, the eastern part of the Syrian Desert and the northern part of the Arabian Desert....
and North Korea
North Korea
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea , , is a country in East Asia, occupying the northern half of the Korean Peninsula. Its capital and largest city is Pyongyang. The Korean Demilitarized Zone serves as the buffer zone between North Korea and South Korea...
, to the rise of some unexpected country to great power, or, most predominantly, the emergence of China
China
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
as a new threat. Nobody could clarify which concept was most likely, right up until the September 11 attacks essentially wiped those ideas out completely.
The NewRuleSets.Project was one of many programs that the United States military has launched since the fall of the Soviet Union in order to determine what threats will emerge in the coming decades. The project is a unique collaboration between military and financial analysts. The project name comes from the idea of "rule sets," the combination of written and unwritten rules that people within a region use. It has been noted that countries that have similar rule sets tend to collaborate much more effectively than countries that have significant differences. For instance, the U.S. and Soviet Union had rule sets that were very different. Once the Soviets lost control, the country went through a "rule set reset," organizing itself to more closely align with the largely democratic and capitalist societies it had once opposed.
The group also noticed that globalization
Globalization
Globalization refers to the increasingly global relationships of culture, people and economic activity. Most often, it refers to economics: the global distribution of the production of goods and services, through reduction of barriers to international trade such as tariffs, export fees, and import...
has caused a fairly common rule set to be shared between a great many countries around the world. States that have benefitted from globalization and begun to share in the wealth and prosperity associated with that are also losing interest in waging war with one another. Participants in the project noticed that once the per capita
Per capita
Per capita is a Latin prepositional phrase: per and capita . The phrase thus means "by heads" or "for each head", i.e. per individual or per person...
income of a country increases to about US$
United States dollar
The United States dollar , also referred to as the American dollar, is the official currency of the United States of America. It is divided into 100 smaller units called cents or pennies....
3000 per year, war essentially disappears. There are a few places where this hasn't exactly been the case, but it seems to largely hold true for now.
Another interesting thing to note was that, of U.S. military deployments around the world since 1990, virtually all have taken place in countries that do not meet that level of income. This leads him to unabashedly proclaim himself an economic determinist. Examining the regions more thoroughly, it was also noted that the countries have very little flow of people, information, or investment money across their borders. This all leads to the idea of these countries being "disconnected" from the outside world, running on rule sets that are different from that of globalized societies.
Barnett has termed the globalized countries the "Functioning Core," or simply "the Core." The other countries are part of the "Non-Integrating Gap," or simply "the Gap." The Gap has been shrinking as globalization has expanded. Since most terrorists seem to come from the Gap, he believes that the American military should focus on building partnerships with "seam states," countries bordering the Gap, to stabilize those regions. Stable states would bring more investment and more connectedness with the outside world, therefore progressively shrinking the Gap. The end result of all of this, if it proves to be successful, would be nothing less than the end of interstate warfare on the planet, and probably a significant reduction in intrastate warfare and other problems like terrorism.
Esquire Magazine and the resignation of Admiral Fallon
Barnett received notoriety in March 2008 for publishing an article in Esquire magazine on Admiral William Fallon which portrayed the Admiral at odds with the Bush administration. This led to Fallon's resignation as the head of Central CommandCentral Command
Central Command may refer to:* United States Central Command* AFP Central Command * Central Command...
.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/03/11/ST2008031102008.html
Proposed China-US Grand Strategy Agreement
After joining the Center for America China Partnership in 2010, Barnett and his two colleagues, John Milligan-WhyteJohn Milligan-Whyte
John Milligan-Whyte is a businessman, lawyer and moral and political philosopher, who China’s official media refer to as the “new Edgar Snow” and the “twenty-first century Kissinger.” He is the co-author of the Proposed US-China Grand Strategy Agreement Between President Hu and President Obama and...
and Dai Min
Dai Min
Dai Min is President of Whyte DaiMin Investments Limited, the Center for America-China Partnership and the America China Partnership Foundation, co-author of the Proposed US-China Grand Strategy Agreement between President Hu and President Obama, and co-host of ChinaSmartMagazine.com.- Personal...
, prepared the China US Grand Strategy Proposal between Presidents Hu and Obama. The agreement received input from China's: Former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Former UN Ambassador, Former U.S. Ambassador, Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the PLA
People's Liberation Army
The People's Liberation Army is the unified military organization of all land, sea, strategic missile and air forces of the People's Republic of China. The PLA was established on August 1, 1927 — celebrated annually as "PLA Day" — as the military arm of the Communist Party of China...
, Former Military Attaché to North Korea and Israel, Former Vice Minister of Commerce, Central Party School Institute of International Strategic Studies, Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs, China Center for International Economic Exchanges, China Institute For International Strategic Studies, China Foundation for International & Strategic Studies, Boao Forum, State Council’s China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, and Premier and State Councilors.
The agreement's provisions were introduced in Barnett's column in World Politics Review, and in John Milligan-Whyte
John Milligan-Whyte
John Milligan-Whyte is a businessman, lawyer and moral and political philosopher, who China’s official media refer to as the “new Edgar Snow” and the “twenty-first century Kissinger.” He is the co-author of the Proposed US-China Grand Strategy Agreement Between President Hu and President Obama and...
and Dai Min’s
Dai Min
Dai Min is President of Whyte DaiMin Investments Limited, the Center for America-China Partnership and the America China Partnership Foundation, co-author of the Proposed US-China Grand Strategy Agreement between President Hu and President Obama, and co-host of ChinaSmartMagazine.com.- Personal...
columns in People’s Daily Online in English and in China Daily Online
China Daily
The China Daily is an English language daily newspaper published in the People's Republic of China.- Overview :China Daily was established in June 1981 and has the widest print circulation of any English-language newspaper in the country...
in Mandarin. The text of the agreement itself appeared in the September/October 2011 edition of Foreign Affairs.
External links
- Wikistrat - Next-Generation Strategy featuring Thomas Barnett
- Thomas Barnett's personal website
- Barnett's weblog
- NewRuleSets.Project
- Enterra Solutions Company Web Site
- TED Talks: Thomas Barnett draws a new map for peace at TEDTED (conference)TED is a global set of conferences owned by the private non-profit Sapling Foundation, formed to disseminate "ideas worth spreading"....
in 2005 - Blueprint for Action : A Future Worth Creating - IT Conversations audio program
- Interview with Barnett concerning The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century
- Interview with Barnett concerning Blueprint for Action: A Future Worth Creating
- Top US Officer in Mideast Resigns - Washington Post, March 12, 2008