Traffic estimation and prediction system
Encyclopedia
Traffic estimation and prediction systems (TrEPS) have the potential to improve traffic conditions and reduce travel delays by facilitating better utilization of available capacity. These systems exploit currently available and emerging computer, communication, and control technologies to monitor, manage, and control the transportation system. They also provide various levels of traffic information and trip advisory to system users, including many ITS service providers, so that travelers can make timely and informed travel decisions.
s (ATMS) and Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) strategies can be implemented to meet various traffic control, management, and operation objectives.
R&D initiated a Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) research project in 1994 to meet the need for a traffic prediction system and to help address complex traffic control and management issues in the dynamic ITS environment. The main objective of this research is to develop a deployable real-time Traffic Estimation and Prediction System (TrEPS) to meet the information need in the ITS context. In October 1995, two parallel research contracts were awarded to Massachusetts Institute of Technology
(MIT) and the University of Texas at Austin
(UTX) with a follow-up development and support at the University of Maryland
(UMD), respectively. Each team was required to develop a prototype of TrEPS demonstrating its potential for real time application capability. After three years of intensive R&D efforts, two prototype TrEPS were developed. The two prototype TrEPS developed by MIT and UTX/UMD are named DynaMIT-R and DYNASMART-X, respectively. Both systems are simulation-based DTA system.
, Xi’an Jiaotong University (XJTU) initiated a similar simulation-based DTA research project in 2000 with a follow-up development and support at the Shandong Academy of Sciences
after 2004. Dr. Yong Lin is the project leader and Houbing Song is the earliest project member. After six years of intense R&D efforts, one prototype TrEPS was developed in 2006. The overall prototype TrEPS developed by Dr. Lin and his team which has more than 20 members is named DynaCHINA (Dynamic Consistent Hybrid Information based on Network Assignment).
implemented the first practical application of congestion pricing
in the world in 1975, the Singapore's Area Licensing Scheme. Thanks to technological advances in electronic toll collection
, detection, and video surveillance, Singapore upgraded its system in 1998. (see Singapore's Electronic Road Pricing
)
In an effort to improve the pricing mechanism and to introduce real-time variable pricing
, Singapore’s Land Transport Authority
, together with IBM
, ran a pilot from December 2006 to April 2007, with a traffic estimation and prediction tool, which uses historical traffic data and real-time feeds with flow conditions from several sources, in order to predict the levels of congestion up to an hour in advance. By accurate estimating prevailing and emerging traffic conditions, this technology is expected to allow variable pricing
, together with improved overall traffic management, including the provision of information in advanced to alert drivers about conditions ahead, and the prices being charged at that moment. The pilot results show overall prediction results above 85 percent of accuracy. Furthermore, when more data was available, at peak hours, average accuracy raised near or above 90 percent.
Need for TrEPS
The success of ITS technology deployments is heavily dependent on the availability of timely and accurate estimates of prevailing and emerging traffic conditions. As such, there is a strong need for a “traffic prediction system”. The needed system is to utilize advanced traffic models to analyze data, especially real-time traffic data, from different sources to estimate and predict traffic conditions so that proactive Advanced Traffic Management SystemAdvanced Traffic Management System
The Advanced Traffic Management System field is a primary subfield within the Intelligent Transportation System domain. The ATMS view is a top-down management perspective that integrates technology primarily to improve the flow of vehicle traffic and improve safety. Real-time traffic data from...
s (ATMS) and Advanced Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) strategies can be implemented to meet various traffic control, management, and operation objectives.
USA
In USA, the FHWAFederal Highway Administration
The Federal Highway Administration is a division of the United States Department of Transportation that specializes in highway transportation. The agency's major activities are grouped into two "programs," the Federal-aid Highway Program and the Federal Lands Highway Program...
R&D initiated a Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) research project in 1994 to meet the need for a traffic prediction system and to help address complex traffic control and management issues in the dynamic ITS environment. The main objective of this research is to develop a deployable real-time Traffic Estimation and Prediction System (TrEPS) to meet the information need in the ITS context. In October 1995, two parallel research contracts were awarded to Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Massachusetts Institute of Technology is a private research university located in Cambridge, Massachusetts. MIT has five schools and one college, containing a total of 32 academic departments, with a strong emphasis on scientific and technological education and research.Founded in 1861 in...
(MIT) and the University of Texas at Austin
University of Texas at Austin
The University of Texas at Austin is a state research university located in Austin, Texas, USA, and is the flagship institution of the The University of Texas System. Founded in 1883, its campus is located approximately from the Texas State Capitol in Austin...
(UTX) with a follow-up development and support at the University of Maryland
University of Maryland, College Park
The University of Maryland, College Park is a top-ranked public research university located in the city of College Park in Prince George's County, Maryland, just outside Washington, D.C...
(UMD), respectively. Each team was required to develop a prototype of TrEPS demonstrating its potential for real time application capability. After three years of intensive R&D efforts, two prototype TrEPS were developed. The two prototype TrEPS developed by MIT and UTX/UMD are named DynaMIT-R and DYNASMART-X, respectively. Both systems are simulation-based DTA system.
China
In ChinaChina
Chinese civilization may refer to:* China for more general discussion of the country.* Chinese culture* Greater China, the transnational community of ethnic Chinese.* History of China* Sinosphere, the area historically affected by Chinese culture...
, Xi’an Jiaotong University (XJTU) initiated a similar simulation-based DTA research project in 2000 with a follow-up development and support at the Shandong Academy of Sciences
Shandong University
Shandong University is a public comprehensive university in Shandong, China. It is one of the largest universities in China by student population and is supported directly by the national government....
after 2004. Dr. Yong Lin is the project leader and Houbing Song is the earliest project member. After six years of intense R&D efforts, one prototype TrEPS was developed in 2006. The overall prototype TrEPS developed by Dr. Lin and his team which has more than 20 members is named DynaCHINA (Dynamic Consistent Hybrid Information based on Network Assignment).
Singapore
SingaporeSingapore
Singapore , officially the Republic of Singapore, is a Southeast Asian city-state off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, north of the equator. An island country made up of 63 islands, it is separated from Malaysia by the Straits of Johor to its north and from Indonesia's Riau Islands by the...
implemented the first practical application of congestion pricing
Congestion pricing
Congestion pricing or congestion charges is a system of surcharging users of a transport network in periods of peak demand to reduce traffic congestion. Examples include some toll-like road pricing fees, and higher peak charges for utilities, public transport and slots in canals and airports...
in the world in 1975, the Singapore's Area Licensing Scheme. Thanks to technological advances in electronic toll collection
Electronic toll collection
Electronic toll collection , an adaptation of military "identification friend or foe" technology, aims to eliminate the delay on toll roads by collecting tolls electronically. It is thus a technological implementation of a road pricing concept...
, detection, and video surveillance, Singapore upgraded its system in 1998. (see Singapore's Electronic Road Pricing
Electronic Road Pricing
The Electronic Road Pricing scheme is an electronic toll collection scheme adopted in Singapore to manage traffic by road pricing, and as a usage-based taxation mechanism to complement the purchase-based Certificate of Entitlement system...
)
In an effort to improve the pricing mechanism and to introduce real-time variable pricing
Variable pricing
Most firms use a fixed price policy. That is, they examine the situation, determine an appropriate price, and leave the price fixed at that amount until the situation changes, at which point they go through the process again...
, Singapore’s Land Transport Authority
Land Transport Authority
The Land Transport Authority is a statutory board under the Ministry of Transport of the Singapore Government.-History:...
, together with IBM
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation or IBM is an American multinational technology and consulting corporation headquartered in Armonk, New York, United States. IBM manufactures and sells computer hardware and software, and it offers infrastructure, hosting and consulting services in areas...
, ran a pilot from December 2006 to April 2007, with a traffic estimation and prediction tool, which uses historical traffic data and real-time feeds with flow conditions from several sources, in order to predict the levels of congestion up to an hour in advance. By accurate estimating prevailing and emerging traffic conditions, this technology is expected to allow variable pricing
Variable pricing
Most firms use a fixed price policy. That is, they examine the situation, determine an appropriate price, and leave the price fixed at that amount until the situation changes, at which point they go through the process again...
, together with improved overall traffic management, including the provision of information in advanced to alert drivers about conditions ahead, and the prices being charged at that moment. The pilot results show overall prediction results above 85 percent of accuracy. Furthermore, when more data was available, at peak hours, average accuracy raised near or above 90 percent.