Undervalued stock
Encyclopedia
An undervalued stock is defined as a stock
that is selling at a price significantly below what is assumed to be its intrinsic value
. For example, if a stock is selling for $50, but can be determined to be worth $100 based on predictable future cash flows, then it is an undervalued stock. Numerous popular books discuss undervalued stocks. Examples are The Intelligent Investor
by Benjamin Graham
, also known as "The Dean of Wall Street," and The Warren Buffett Way
by Robert Hagstrom. The Intelligent Investor puts forth Graham's principles that are based on mathematical calculations such as the price/earning ratio. He was less concerned with the qualitative aspects of a business such as the nature of a business and its management. Graham's ideas had a significant influence on the young Warren Buffett
, who later became a famous US billionaire.
Warren Buffett
, also known as "The Oracle of Omaha," stated that the value of a business is the sum of the cash flows over the life of the business discounted at an appropriate interest rate. This is in reference to the ideas of John Burr Williams
. Therefore, one would not be able to predict whether a stock is undervalued without predicting the future profits of a company and future interest rates. Buffett stated that he is interested in predictable businesses and he uses the interest rate on the 10-year treasury bond in his calculations. Therefore, an investor has to be fairly certain that a company will be profitable in the future in order to consider it to be undervalued. For example, if a risky stock has a PE ratio of 5 and the company becomes bankrupt, this would not be an undervalued stock. Some qualities of companies with undervalued stocks are:
An excellent stock at a fair price is more likely to be undervalued than is a poor stock at a low price, according to Charles Munger, the Harvard-educated partner of Buffett. An excellent stock continues to rise in value over the long term, while a poor stock declines in value. An undervalued stock will usually have a low PE ratio. For example, a PE ratio of 10 is much better than a PE ratio of 20. Some high-flying Internet stocks had PE ratios of 30, 40, 50, 100, 200 or more in year 2000, prior to the bursting of the Internet stock bubble. Investors of these Internet stocks did not purchase undervalued stocks, as they later learned.
Stock
The capital stock of a business entity represents the original capital paid into or invested in the business by its founders. It serves as a security for the creditors of a business since it cannot be withdrawn to the detriment of the creditors...
that is selling at a price significantly below what is assumed to be its intrinsic value
Intrinsic value (finance)
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value...
. For example, if a stock is selling for $50, but can be determined to be worth $100 based on predictable future cash flows, then it is an undervalued stock. Numerous popular books discuss undervalued stocks. Examples are The Intelligent Investor
The Intelligent Investor
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, first published in 1949, is a widely acclaimed book on value investing, an investment approach Graham began teaching at Columbia Business School in 1928 and subsequently refined with David Dodd...
by Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham was an American economist and professional investor. Graham is considered the first proponent of value investing, an investment approach he began teaching at Columbia Business School in 1928 and subsequently refined with David Dodd through various editions of their famous book...
, also known as "The Dean of Wall Street," and The Warren Buffett Way
The Warren Buffett Way
The Warren Buffett Way, a book by author Robert Hagstrom, outlines the principles of value investing practiced by successful investor Warren Buffett....
by Robert Hagstrom. The Intelligent Investor puts forth Graham's principles that are based on mathematical calculations such as the price/earning ratio. He was less concerned with the qualitative aspects of a business such as the nature of a business and its management. Graham's ideas had a significant influence on the young Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett
Warren Edward Buffett is an American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist. He is widely regarded as one of the most successful investors in the world. Often introduced as "legendary investor, Warren Buffett", he is the primary shareholder, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is...
, who later became a famous US billionaire.
Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett
Warren Edward Buffett is an American business magnate, investor, and philanthropist. He is widely regarded as one of the most successful investors in the world. Often introduced as "legendary investor, Warren Buffett", he is the primary shareholder, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. He is...
, also known as "The Oracle of Omaha," stated that the value of a business is the sum of the cash flows over the life of the business discounted at an appropriate interest rate. This is in reference to the ideas of John Burr Williams
John Burr Williams
John Burr Williams , one of the first economists to view stock prices as determined by “intrinsic value”, is recognised as a founder and developer of fundamental analysis. He is best known for his 1938 text "The Theory of Investment Value", based on his Ph.D...
. Therefore, one would not be able to predict whether a stock is undervalued without predicting the future profits of a company and future interest rates. Buffett stated that he is interested in predictable businesses and he uses the interest rate on the 10-year treasury bond in his calculations. Therefore, an investor has to be fairly certain that a company will be profitable in the future in order to consider it to be undervalued. For example, if a risky stock has a PE ratio of 5 and the company becomes bankrupt, this would not be an undervalued stock. Some qualities of companies with undervalued stocks are:
- The company's earning history is stable.
- The company does not specialize in high-technology that can become obsolete overnight.
- The company is not in the middle of some financial scandal.
- The company's low PE ratio is not due to profits realized from capital gains.
- The company's low PE ratio is not due to a major decline in profitability.
- The company's PE ratio is below its average PE ratio for the last 10 years.
- The company is selling at a price below its tangible asset value.
- The company's trailing 3-years earnings has risen over the past 10 years.
- The company's credit rating is AAA, AA, or A, or even better, there is no rating because there is no debt at all.
- The company did not have a loss during the last recession.
An excellent stock at a fair price is more likely to be undervalued than is a poor stock at a low price, according to Charles Munger, the Harvard-educated partner of Buffett. An excellent stock continues to rise in value over the long term, while a poor stock declines in value. An undervalued stock will usually have a low PE ratio. For example, a PE ratio of 10 is much better than a PE ratio of 20. Some high-flying Internet stocks had PE ratios of 30, 40, 50, 100, 200 or more in year 2000, prior to the bursting of the Internet stock bubble. Investors of these Internet stocks did not purchase undervalued stocks, as they later learned.