Vladimir Keilis-Borok
Encyclopedia
Vladimir Keilis-Borok was born in Moscow
, Russia
on July 31, 1921. He is a mathematical geophysicist.
in mathematical geophysics
from the Academy of Sciences
in Moscow. He was the founder, and is the Director Emeritus, of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
(1969), Austrian Academy of Sciences
(1992), US National Academy Sciences (1971), Pontifical Academy of Sciences
(1994), Russian Academy of Sciences
(1988), Academia Europaea
(1999), and the Royal Astronomical Society
(1989).
He has served as the President, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
(1987–1991). Vice President, International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (1983–1987), Board Member and Chair of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Section, International Council of Scientific Unions (1988–1991), Founding Chairman, International Committee for Geophysical Theory and Computers (1964–1979), and Expert, Technical meetings on the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1960–1990). He is/was also a member of: Committee for International Security and Disarmament, Russian Academy of Sciences (1998–2000); The Union’s Scientific Committee for the UN Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (1990–1999); International Working Group on the Geological Safety of Nuclear Waste Depositories (1994–1997).
He was awarded the First Lewis Fry Richardson Medal for exceptional contributions to non-linear geophysics (1998), a Doctor Honoris Causa, Institute du Physique du Globe, Paris, and the 21st Century Collaborative Activity Award for Studying Complex Systems, McDonnell Foundation.
His team of researchers have used new algorithmic methods for earthquake prediction
. Keilis-Borok's method has been retroactively applied to 31 cases dating back to 1989, with correlation 25 times (not including two near misses), including the Samoa area quake (September, 2009) and the Sumatra quake (September, 2009). In response to his prediction of an earthquake in California in 2005, US Geological Survey has said: "The work of the Keilis-Borok team is a legitimate approach to earthquake prediction research. However, the method is unproven, and it will take much additional study, and many additional trial predictions, before it can be shown whether it works, and how well." http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2004/KB_prediction.html. The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council determined, "To date there is no evidence that these, or related methods, yield useful intermediate term forecasts." http://www.oes.ca.gov/Operational/OESHome.nsf/ALL/D2D6A535CF5D369188256F6D00743B0E?OpenDocument No earthquake occurred in the predicted location or time period.
Recently Keilis-Borok has, in collaboration, used some of his techniques to make socio-economic predictions with notable success. For example, in his work with Allan Lichtman
, he used the mathematics
of pattern recognition to correctly predict the popular vote winner of presidential elections in the United States
from 1984 to 2008 as well as correctly predicting 128 out of 150 US mid-term Senatorial elections since 1986 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/24/AR2008082401664_pf.html. He has also applied the method to predicting rises in murder rates in Los Angeles, recessions, spikes in unemployment and, most recently, terrorist attacks.
Currently Keilis-Borok teaches at the University of California, Los Angeles
, is the research group leader at the International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Science, and is the Co-Director (and Founder) of the Research program on non-linear dynamics and earthquake prediction of the Abdus Salam
International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste
.
Moscow
Moscow is the capital, the most populous city, and the most populous federal subject of Russia. The city is a major political, economic, cultural, scientific, religious, financial, educational, and transportation centre of Russia and the continent...
, Russia
Russia
Russia or , officially known as both Russia and the Russian Federation , is a country in northern Eurasia. It is a federal semi-presidential republic, comprising 83 federal subjects...
on July 31, 1921. He is a mathematical geophysicist.
Biography
In 1948, he received a Ph.D.Doctor of Philosophy
Doctor of Philosophy, abbreviated as Ph.D., PhD, D.Phil., or DPhil , in English-speaking countries, is a postgraduate academic degree awarded by universities...
in mathematical geophysics
Mathematical geophysics
Mathematical geophysics is concerned with developing mathematical methods for use in geophysics. As such, it has application in many fields in geophysics, particularly geodynamics and seismology.- Geophysical fluid dynamics :...
from the Academy of Sciences
Academy of Sciences
An Academy of Sciences is a national academy or another learned society dedicated to sciences.In non-English speaking countries, the range of academic fields of the members of a national Academy of Science often includes fields which would not normally be classed as "science" in English...
in Moscow. He was the founder, and is the Director Emeritus, of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
The American Academy of Arts and Sciences is an independent policy research center that conducts multidisciplinary studies of complex and emerging problems. The Academy’s elected members are leaders in the academic disciplines, the arts, business, and public affairs.James Bowdoin, John Adams, and...
(1969), Austrian Academy of Sciences
Austrian Academy of Sciences
The Austrian Academy of Sciences is a legal entity under the special protection of the Federal Republic of Austria. According to the statutes of the Academy its mission is to promote the sciences and humanities in every respect and in every field, particularly in fundamental research...
(1992), US National Academy Sciences (1971), Pontifical Academy of Sciences
Pontifical Academy of Sciences
The Pontifical Academy of Sciences is a scientific academy of the Vatican, founded in 1936 by Pope Pius XI. It is placed under the protection of the reigning Supreme Pontiff. Its aim is to promote the progress of the mathematical, physical and natural sciences and the study of related...
(1994), Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Academy of Sciences
The Russian Academy of Sciences consists of the national academy of Russia and a network of scientific research institutes from across the Russian Federation as well as auxiliary scientific and social units like libraries, publishers and hospitals....
(1988), Academia Europaea
Academia Europaea
Academia Europæa is a European non-governmental scientific academy founded in 1988. Its members are scientists and scholars who collectively aim to promote learning, education and research. It publishes European Review through Cambridge Journals....
(1999), and the Royal Astronomical Society
Royal Astronomical Society
The Royal Astronomical Society is a learned society that began as the Astronomical Society of London in 1820 to support astronomical research . It became the Royal Astronomical Society in 1831 on receiving its Royal Charter from William IV...
(1989).
He has served as the President, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics is a non-governmental organisation dedicated to the scientific study of the Earth using geophysical and geodesic techniques. The IUGG was established in 1919. Some areas within its scope are environmental preservation, reduction of the effects of...
(1987–1991). Vice President, International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (1983–1987), Board Member and Chair of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Section, International Council of Scientific Unions (1988–1991), Founding Chairman, International Committee for Geophysical Theory and Computers (1964–1979), and Expert, Technical meetings on the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (1960–1990). He is/was also a member of: Committee for International Security and Disarmament, Russian Academy of Sciences (1998–2000); The Union’s Scientific Committee for the UN Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (1990–1999); International Working Group on the Geological Safety of Nuclear Waste Depositories (1994–1997).
He was awarded the First Lewis Fry Richardson Medal for exceptional contributions to non-linear geophysics (1998), a Doctor Honoris Causa, Institute du Physique du Globe, Paris, and the 21st Century Collaborative Activity Award for Studying Complex Systems, McDonnell Foundation.
His team of researchers have used new algorithmic methods for earthquake prediction
Earthquake prediction
An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake of a specific magnitude will occur in a particular place at a particular time . Despite considerable research efforts by seismologists, scientifically reproducible predictions cannot yet be made to a specific day or month...
. Keilis-Borok's method has been retroactively applied to 31 cases dating back to 1989, with correlation 25 times (not including two near misses), including the Samoa area quake (September, 2009) and the Sumatra quake (September, 2009). In response to his prediction of an earthquake in California in 2005, US Geological Survey has said: "The work of the Keilis-Borok team is a legitimate approach to earthquake prediction research. However, the method is unproven, and it will take much additional study, and many additional trial predictions, before it can be shown whether it works, and how well." http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/eqinthenews/2004/KB_prediction.html. The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council determined, "To date there is no evidence that these, or related methods, yield useful intermediate term forecasts." http://www.oes.ca.gov/Operational/OESHome.nsf/ALL/D2D6A535CF5D369188256F6D00743B0E?OpenDocument No earthquake occurred in the predicted location or time period.
Recently Keilis-Borok has, in collaboration, used some of his techniques to make socio-economic predictions with notable success. For example, in his work with Allan Lichtman
Allan Lichtman
Allan Jay Lichtman is an American political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C. He ran in the 2006 Maryland senate race for the seat vacated by Paul Sarbanes.-Early life, education, and family:...
, he used the mathematics
Mathematics
Mathematics is the study of quantity, space, structure, and change. Mathematicians seek out patterns and formulate new conjectures. Mathematicians resolve the truth or falsity of conjectures by mathematical proofs, which are arguments sufficient to convince other mathematicians of their validity...
of pattern recognition to correctly predict the popular vote winner of presidential elections in the United States
United States
The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states and a federal district...
from 1984 to 2008 as well as correctly predicting 128 out of 150 US mid-term Senatorial elections since 1986 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/24/AR2008082401664_pf.html. He has also applied the method to predicting rises in murder rates in Los Angeles, recessions, spikes in unemployment and, most recently, terrorist attacks.
Currently Keilis-Borok teaches at the University of California, Los Angeles
University of California, Los Angeles
The University of California, Los Angeles is a public research university located in the Westwood neighborhood of Los Angeles, California, USA. It was founded in 1919 as the "Southern Branch" of the University of California and is the second oldest of the ten campuses...
, is the research group leader at the International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Science, and is the Co-Director (and Founder) of the Research program on non-linear dynamics and earthquake prediction of the Abdus Salam
Abdus Salam
Mohammad Abdus Salam, NI, SPk Mohammad Abdus Salam, NI, SPk Mohammad Abdus Salam, NI, SPk (Urdu: محمد عبد السلام, pronounced , (January 29, 1926– November 21, 1996) was a Pakistani theoretical physicist and Nobel laureate in Physics for his work on the electroweak unification of the...
International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste
Trieste
Trieste is a city and seaport in northeastern Italy. It is situated towards the end of a narrow strip of land lying between the Adriatic Sea and Italy's border with Slovenia, which lies almost immediately south and east of the city...
.