When Smuts Goes
Encyclopedia
When Smuts Goes is a dystopia
n future history
of South Africa
(which now can be considered a kind of retroactive alternate history), published in 1947 by Dr. Arthur M. Keppel-Jones, a historian at the University of Witwatersrand.
At various points in the decades following its publication, South Africans mentioned the book with the apprehensive feeling that its dark predictions were indeed coming true. However, from the 2007 point of view "When Smuts Goes" seems to have been unduly pessimistic about South Africa's prospects.
of Jan Smuts
and the rise to power of the National Party
, followed by a rupture with the British Empire
and the proclamation of an "Ox Wagon Republic
".
In Keppel-Jones' prediction, however, the National Party institutes a totalitarian Fascist-style dictatorship and completely suppresses all dissent, by Whites as well as by Blacks - to a far greater degree than the actual Apartheid regime was to implement even in its most repressive phases.
Keppel-Jones further predicts a mass exodus of English-speaking Whites; a Black uprising led by the Zulus, which is suppressed with much bloodshed; a totally intransigent attitude by the Afrikaner
leadership leading to increasing tensions with the rest of the world, culminating with an international military intervention - which leads to the toppling of the regime, followed by the killing or expulsion of the remaining White population, much of it migrating to Argentina
; and an economic collapse and social degeneration, with the Blacks proving unable to maintain the political and economic structures which were handed over to them by the International Community.
The book, with both its predictions which were proven true by events and those which were disproven by events, can be considered as reflecting the outlook and anxieties of English-speaking White South African liberals at the time of writing.
Researcher Gary Baines compared the book's deeply pessimistic message and its looking forwards to a disastrous future to the tone of J.M. Coetzee's Waiting for the Barbarians
several decades later (1982).
Dystopia
A dystopia is the idea of a society in a repressive and controlled state, often under the guise of being utopian, as characterized in books like Brave New World and Nineteen Eighty-Four...
n future history
Future history
A future history is a postulated history of the future and is used by authors in the subgenre of speculative fiction to construct a common background for fiction...
of South Africa
South Africa
The Republic of South Africa is a country in southern Africa. Located at the southern tip of Africa, it is divided into nine provinces, with of coastline on the Atlantic and Indian oceans...
(which now can be considered a kind of retroactive alternate history), published in 1947 by Dr. Arthur M. Keppel-Jones, a historian at the University of Witwatersrand.
At various points in the decades following its publication, South Africans mentioned the book with the apprehensive feeling that its dark predictions were indeed coming true. However, from the 2007 point of view "When Smuts Goes" seems to have been unduly pessimistic about South Africa's prospects.
Successful and Unsuccessful Predictions
The book correctly predicted the end of the long tenure in power of the United PartyUnited Party (South Africa)
The United Party was South Africa's ruling political party between 1934 and 1948. It was formed by a merger of most of Prime Minister Barry Hertzog's National Party with the rival South African Party of Jan Smuts, plus the remnants of the Unionist Party...
of Jan Smuts
Jan Smuts
Jan Christiaan Smuts, OM, CH, ED, KC, FRS, PC was a prominent South African and British Commonwealth statesman, military leader and philosopher. In addition to holding various cabinet posts, he served as Prime Minister of the Union of South Africa from 1919 until 1924 and from 1939 until 1948...
and the rise to power of the National Party
National Party (South Africa)
The National Party is a former political party in South Africa. Founded in 1914, it was the governing party of the country from 4 June 1948 until 9 May 1994. Members of the National Party were sometimes known as Nationalists or Nats. Its policies included apartheid, the establishment of a...
, followed by a rupture with the British Empire
British Empire
The British Empire comprised the dominions, colonies, protectorates, mandates and other territories ruled or administered by the United Kingdom. It originated with the overseas colonies and trading posts established by England in the late 16th and early 17th centuries. At its height, it was the...
and the proclamation of an "Ox Wagon Republic
Great Trek
The Great Trek was an eastward and north-eastward migration away from British control in the Cape Colony during the 1830s and 1840s by Boers . The migrants were descended from settlers from western mainland Europe, most notably from the Netherlands, northwest Germany and French Huguenots...
".
In Keppel-Jones' prediction, however, the National Party institutes a totalitarian Fascist-style dictatorship and completely suppresses all dissent, by Whites as well as by Blacks - to a far greater degree than the actual Apartheid regime was to implement even in its most repressive phases.
Keppel-Jones further predicts a mass exodus of English-speaking Whites; a Black uprising led by the Zulus, which is suppressed with much bloodshed; a totally intransigent attitude by the Afrikaner
Afrikaner
Afrikaners are an ethnic group in Southern Africa descended from almost equal numbers of Dutch, French and German settlers whose native tongue is Afrikaans: a Germanic language which derives primarily from 17th century Dutch, and a variety of other languages.-Related ethno-linguistic groups:The...
leadership leading to increasing tensions with the rest of the world, culminating with an international military intervention - which leads to the toppling of the regime, followed by the killing or expulsion of the remaining White population, much of it migrating to Argentina
Argentina
Argentina , officially the Argentine Republic , is the second largest country in South America by land area, after Brazil. It is constituted as a federation of 23 provinces and an autonomous city, Buenos Aires...
; and an economic collapse and social degeneration, with the Blacks proving unable to maintain the political and economic structures which were handed over to them by the International Community.
The book, with both its predictions which were proven true by events and those which were disproven by events, can be considered as reflecting the outlook and anxieties of English-speaking White South African liberals at the time of writing.
Researcher Gary Baines compared the book's deeply pessimistic message and its looking forwards to a disastrous future to the tone of J.M. Coetzee's Waiting for the Barbarians
Waiting for the Barbarians
Waiting for the Barbarians is a novel by the South African-born author J. M. Coetzee, winner of the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2003. The novel was published in 1980. It was chosen by Penguin for its series Great Books of the 20th Century and won both the James Tait Black Memorial Prize and...
several decades later (1982).