Why the future doesn't need us
Encyclopedia
"Why the future doesn't need us" is an article written by Bill Joy
(then Chief Scientist at Sun Microsystems
) in the April 2000 issue of Wired
magazine. In the article, he argues (quoting the sub title) that "Our most powerful 21st-century technologies — robotics
, genetic engineering
, and nanotech
— are threatening to make humans an endangered species
." Joy warns:
While some critics have characterized Joy's stance as obscurantism
or neo-Luddism
, others share his concerns about the consequences of rapidly expanding technology.
, nanotechnology
and robotics
. He argues that 20th century technologies of destruction, such as the nuclear bomb, were limited to large governments, due to the complexity and cost of such devices, as well as the difficulty in acquiring the required materials. He uses the novel The White Plague
as a potential nightmare scenario, in which a mad scientist
creates a virus capable of wiping out humanity.
He also voices concern about increasing computer power. His worry is that computers will eventually become more intelligent than we are, leading to such dystopian scenarios as robot rebellion
. He notably quotes the Unabomber on this topic.
, Ray Kurzweil questioned the regulation of potentially dangerous technology, asking "Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for malevolent purposes?". However, some authors, such as John Zerzan
and Chellis Glendinning
, believe that modern technologies are bad for both freedom and the problem of cancer, and that the two issues are connected.
In the AAAS
Science and Technology Policy Yearbook 2001 article titled A Response to Bill Joy and the Doom-and-Gloom Technofuturists, Bill Joy was criticized for having technological tunnel vision on his prediction, by failing to consider social factors.
Martin Ford author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future makes the case that the risk posed by accelerating technology may be primarily economic in nature. Ford argues that before technology reaches the point where it represents a physical existential threat, it will become possible to automate nearly all routine and repetitive jobs in the economy. In the absence of a major reform to the capitalist system, this could result in massive unemployment
, plunging consumer spending and confidence, and an economic crisis potentially even more severe than the Great Depression
. If such a crisis were to occur, subsequent technological progress would dramatically slow because there would be insufficient incentive to invest in innovation.
In the 15th Anniversary issue of Wired Magazine in 2008, Lucas Graves's article reported that the genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics technologies have not reached the level that would make Bill Joy's scenario come true.
Bill Joy
William Nelson Joy , commonly known as Bill Joy, is an American computer scientist. Joy co-founded Sun Microsystems in 1982 along with Vinod Khosla, Scott McNealy and Andy Bechtolsheim, and served as chief scientist at the company until 2003...
(then Chief Scientist at Sun Microsystems
Sun Microsystems
Sun Microsystems, Inc. was a company that sold :computers, computer components, :computer software, and :information technology services. Sun was founded on February 24, 1982...
) in the April 2000 issue of Wired
Wired (magazine)
Wired is a full-color monthly American magazine and on-line periodical, published since January 1993, that reports on how new and developing technology affects culture, the economy, and politics...
magazine. In the article, he argues (quoting the sub title) that "Our most powerful 21st-century technologies — robotics
Robotics
Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, structural disposition, manufacture and application of robots...
, genetic engineering
Genetic engineering
Genetic engineering, also called genetic modification, is the direct human manipulation of an organism's genome using modern DNA technology. It involves the introduction of foreign DNA or synthetic genes into the organism of interest...
, and nanotech
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally, nanotechnology deals with developing materials, devices, or other structures possessing at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometres...
— are threatening to make humans an endangered species
Endangered species
An endangered species is a population of organisms which is at risk of becoming extinct because it is either few in numbers, or threatened by changing environmental or predation parameters...
." Joy warns:
- "The experiences of the atomic scientistsHistory of nuclear weaponsThe history of nuclear weapons chronicles the development of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons possess enormous destructive potential derived from nuclear fission or nuclear fusion reactions...
clearly show the need to take personal responsibility, the dangerDangerDanger may refer to:* Risk, the threat of adverse events* Danger , a Microsoft subsidiary which made cellular telephones* Danger , French electronic composer and performer* Danger , the fourth studio album by P-Square...
that things will move too fast, and the way in which a process can take on a life of its own. We can, as they did, create insurmountable problems in almost no time flat. We must do more thinking up front if we are not to be similarly surprised and shocked by the consequences of our inventions."
While some critics have characterized Joy's stance as obscurantism
Obscurantism
Obscurantism is the practice of deliberately preventing the facts or the full details of some matter from becoming known. There are two, common, historical and intellectual, denotations: 1) restricting knowledge—opposition to the spread of knowledge, a policy of withholding knowledge from the...
or neo-Luddism
Neo-luddism
Neo-Luddism is a personal world view opposing any modern technology. Its name is based on the historical legacy of the British Luddites which were active between 1811 and 1816...
, others share his concerns about the consequences of rapidly expanding technology.
Summary
Joy argues that developing technologies provide a much greater danger to humanity than any technology before it has ever presented. In particular, he focuses on geneticsGenetics
Genetics , a discipline of biology, is the science of genes, heredity, and variation in living organisms....
, nanotechnology
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the study of manipulating matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Generally, nanotechnology deals with developing materials, devices, or other structures possessing at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometres...
and robotics
Robotics
Robotics is the branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, structural disposition, manufacture and application of robots...
. He argues that 20th century technologies of destruction, such as the nuclear bomb, were limited to large governments, due to the complexity and cost of such devices, as well as the difficulty in acquiring the required materials. He uses the novel The White Plague
The White Plague
The White Plague is a science fiction novel by Frank Herbert.-Plot:When an IRA bomb goes off, the wife and children of molecular biologist John Roe O'Neill are killed on May 20, 1996. Driven halfway insane by loss, his mind fragments into several personalities that carry out his plan for him. He...
as a potential nightmare scenario, in which a mad scientist
Mad scientist
A mad scientist is a stock character of popular fiction, specifically science fiction. The mad scientist may be villainous or antagonistic, benign or neutral, and whether insane, eccentric, or simply bumbling, mad scientists often work with fictional technology in order to forward their schemes, if...
creates a virus capable of wiping out humanity.
He also voices concern about increasing computer power. His worry is that computers will eventually become more intelligent than we are, leading to such dystopian scenarios as robot rebellion
Cybernetic revolt
Cybernetic revolt or robot uprising is a scenario in which an artificial intelligence decide that humans are a threat , are inferior, or are oppressors and try to destroy or to enslave them potentially leading to...
. He notably quotes the Unabomber on this topic.
Criticisms
In The Singularity Is NearThe Singularity Is Near
The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology is a 2005 update of Raymond Kurzweil's 1999 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines and his 1990 book The Age of Intelligent Machines. In it, as in the two previous versions, Kurzweil attempts to give a glimpse of what awaits us in the near future...
, Ray Kurzweil questioned the regulation of potentially dangerous technology, asking "Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for malevolent purposes?". However, some authors, such as John Zerzan
John Zerzan
John Zerzan is an American anarchist and primitivist philosopher and author. His works criticize agricultural civilization as inherently oppressive, and advocate drawing upon the ways of life of prehistoric humans as an inspiration for what a free society should look like...
and Chellis Glendinning
Chellis Glendinning
Chellis Glendinning is a European-American author of creative nonfiction, licensed psychotherapist, and political activist. She is noted as a pioneer in the field of ecopsychology, a proponent of land-based culture, and a critic of technological society, having worked with such contemporaries as...
, believe that modern technologies are bad for both freedom and the problem of cancer, and that the two issues are connected.
In the AAAS
American Association for the Advancement of Science
The American Association for the Advancement of Science is an international non-profit organization with the stated goals of promoting cooperation among scientists, defending scientific freedom, encouraging scientific responsibility, and supporting scientific education and science outreach for the...
Science and Technology Policy Yearbook 2001 article titled A Response to Bill Joy and the Doom-and-Gloom Technofuturists, Bill Joy was criticized for having technological tunnel vision on his prediction, by failing to consider social factors.
Martin Ford author of The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future makes the case that the risk posed by accelerating technology may be primarily economic in nature. Ford argues that before technology reaches the point where it represents a physical existential threat, it will become possible to automate nearly all routine and repetitive jobs in the economy. In the absence of a major reform to the capitalist system, this could result in massive unemployment
Unemployment
Unemployment , as defined by the International Labour Organization, occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively sought work within the past four weeks...
, plunging consumer spending and confidence, and an economic crisis potentially even more severe than the Great Depression
Great Depression
The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s...
. If such a crisis were to occur, subsequent technological progress would dramatically slow because there would be insufficient incentive to invest in innovation.
Aftermath
After the publication of the article, Bill Joy suggested assessing technologies to gauge their implicit dangers, as well as having scientists refuse to work on technologies that have the potential to cause harm.In the 15th Anniversary issue of Wired Magazine in 2008, Lucas Graves's article reported that the genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics technologies have not reached the level that would make Bill Joy's scenario come true.
Further reading
- Messerly, John G. "I'm glad the future doesn't need us: a critique of Joy's pessimistic futurism." ACM SIGCAS Computers and Society, Volume 33,Issue 2, (June 2003) ISSN 0095-2737
External links
- Why the future doesn't need us, Wired, April 2000
- Rants & Raves: "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us"
- Bill Joy Hopes Reason Prevails
- The Center for the Study of Technology and Society: Special Focus on Bill Joy's Hi-Tech Warning
- Bill Joy – Nanotech, and Genetics, and Robots, Oh My!
- AAAS Science and Technology Policy Yearbook 2001